Alright , this is going to be my last speculation / theory / argument post.
Sora won't promote anything Nintendo related , no recent KH game on Switch , no plan to port KH3 to the Switch. Negotiating with Disney isn't impossible , but damn they want a lot of money , probably more than Square.
Outside of DLCs sales / amiibo , Sora won't give anything to Nintendo except promotion for a franchise wich is mainly on competitors consoles.
A DQ rep mean picking a japanese rep. No offend to japanese characters ( I wanted Lip or Takamaru playable. ) but not even Japan is asking for DQ in Smash. You would have to go through Square , Armor project and a anti-LGBT /War crime denier composer for 2 MIDI music tracks.
Also , he suffer from the "anime swordman" syndrome. Yeah , childish argument , but seriously , it's done to death. Also is a complete who to the Western audience , no Big DQ game on the Switch , only a spin-off , and a port for the 3DS.
Risky pick , would just please the japanese crowd , and Sakurai avoid this kind of character.
Sora and a DQ rep are risky picks for theses reasons. Yeah , a risk can be worth it. But they are just too polarizing from a buisnes perspective.
And then come Geno.
Requested world-wide , even if It's not as much as Sora.
Requested since Melee/Brawl , Sora isn't.
Easier character to negotiate over-all (Only Square , and they are fine with the Mii costume , so why not a playable character that will give them quick and easy money ?)
Unique design , may not appeal to everyone , but is diversified enough to stand out.
Would give faith to the customers for DLC (third party + requested + unique , showing that Nintendo is LISTENING.) where a DQ rep won't.
Can promote the SNES classic , an already existing and recent Nintendo product. (They just have to Say "SMRPG and other Nintendo classic are on the SNES classic" and people would be interested.)
People would know him , because of the spotlight he's been getting since the Mii costume. Nintendo celebrating the 22th SMRPG anniversary with a tweet , and is the most liked Nintendo tweet.
People that may not know him? He's unique , and can be a over-all fun character. If Captain Falcon was DLC , everyone would buy him despise not knowing F-Zero , a character design can alone convince a purchase for a DLC character.
What risk are involved with Geno ? Tell me.
No big risks. The only issue is if Square decide to make him super expansive to use for Nintendo for no damn reason.
I know that KH is more popular than SMRPG , I know that DQ is huge in Japan , I know we're a smaller group than the KH/DQ fans , I know we are die-hard fans.
The thing is , from a buisness perspective , Sora or a DQ rep are risky picks , especially for a first DLC. Wherehas Geno would be an Amazing character to start of , isn't risky , and is from all aspect , a more CONSISTENT character.
By that I mean that he isn't polarizing. He's not a god tier character in only one region , he's popular world-wide IN THE SMASH SCENE AND OVER-ALL NINTENDO FANBASE , the target audience that matter the most (with Nintendo products consummers), because people who bought Smash are :
-Switch owner.
-Nintendo player
-Smash fans.
Yeah , they can be KH fans with a PS4 and a Switch. See , the key word is "They can be".
I'm going to bite hard , but I found this possibility immature in a way.
It may only be me , but I don't know a lot of people that are KH fans , while having enough money to but the 2 most expensive consoles right now , while beeing interested in Smash.
This is a way smaller target audience than the Geno fans , wich are more than probably NINTENDO PLAYERS , BECAUSE SMRPG IS A FREAKING MARIO GAME.
You can say that KH/DQ is bigger , that Sora would break the internet (because his inclusion lack any sense , it would only be to please the KH fans) , that Square want to push DQ to the West ( while having no plan to release a translated version of the most recent DQ game for the Switch , that isn't released in Japan yet. And that Nintendo is picking DLCs , IT'S NOT SQUARE'S GAME. They can make suggestions , but have low power concerning Smash.), you can say that my arguments are based on the fact that the first DLC is Geno , you can say that I'm making strawgrasping arguments.
I'm fed up of this. That's why Iv'e made this post , to realize how silly it would be for Nintendo to pick theses characters over Geno.
Nintendo has enough power to buy /convince Square to let them use Geno , or outright buying Geno's rights to give him his own franchise , a SMRPG remake or anything with Geno's face on it.
I love Geno , I love the Mario RPGs , despise all their flaws and how horribly they handled Paper Mario. Despise the fact that Alphadream is probably fed up from M&L and don't have ideas anymore , I support this franchise.
Despise SMRPG beeing a stand-alone title with a character that almost break the game (Peach) and is more than 20 years old , I loved it because it reminded me why I loved video games. Fun , learning , and sharing . This game reminded me that , something I have forgot since 2 years.
And so , I hope that from now on , the Geno VS Sora VS DQ debate calm down.
It's pretty much 60% of this thread now , every arguments have been listed over and over , and each side is digging deeper only to find nothing.
I know I won't stop this debate.
But I really think It's hurting the thread.
Speculation is a Big part of all of this , but this specific subject is case closed. There is almost nothing we can add.
I Hope nobody was offended by what I said , this isn't my objective.
You love Sora and DQ ? Then support the franchise character ! One day , they may have a chance , and have a Good future for them. Let's not make fandom wars.
Our objective is getting Geno in Smash, without it , he can't have any future games , he'll only have the fans. I'm not a supporter since the Brawl days , Iv'e only finished SMRPG 5 months ago.
But that mean something.
What was once your irrelevant and obscure character , is now in the spotlight and is making people share their experiences , thoughts , art , videos , about SMRPG all over the internet. This is an Amazing Victory in itself.
Let's be confident , Geno has heard our wish and will do his best. But keep wishing for him , in your own way , don't feel forced to not support him because he may not come back and someone else would.
Keep wishing , making them a reality is Geno's job , and he love it.