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Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

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Fatmanonice

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In line with the old idiom, "no news is good news" and this means that Geno has once again skirt by a credible leaker not having negative comments about them, especially when others including Vergeben have claimed to have heard something on the positive end of the spectrum. The DQ comments were fairly neutral too so, on that note, this wasn't super threatening unless you're a Paper Mario, Banjo, or Advance Wars fan.
 
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TeenGirlSquad

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In line with the old idiom, "no news is good news" and this means that Geno has once again skirt by a credible leaker not having negative comments about them, especially when others including Vergeben have claimed to have heard something on the positive end of the spectrum. The DQ comments were fairly neutral too so, on that note, this wasn't super threatening unless you're a Paper Mario, Banjo, or Advance Wars fan.
I already assumed that Banjo was out because Steve is almost certainly in at this point, and I doubted that there would be two Microsoft reps. The best case scenario would be if, somehow, Steve was a sort of "gateway" character for them to get Banjo in, but realistically, Steve is going to sell more anyway, so that's not really an appropriate way of looking at it.

I gave up on Advance Wars even tho it deserves a rep. Paper Mario also deserves to be in, but there's no new game to advertise or anything. Ironically Geno is one of the few fan favorite characters that I actually think still has a chance. Him and Bandana Dee. The fact that Hitagi hasn't heard of any first-party DLC characters makes me think that he only really knows about three of them (the Square Enix character, Steve, and possibly Katalina). Because I can't see all five being third-party, even four is kind of a stretch. So I think Bandana Dee's chances, as the #1 Japanese pick on the ballot, and with Nintendo picking the characters, are actually quite good.

The bigger question is about Geno. He's the easiest for them to get the rights to, but he doesn't really advertise anything except for the SNES Mini, he would be a fan appeasement character all the way, and I'm not sure Nintendo would opt for that in their negotiations with Square. But I honestly don't think that Hitagi "not hearing about him" disconfirms him in any way, Square always keeps this stuff close to the chest, and any of the ones he's heard could have been leak bait easily. Which also means Sora still has a chance in my eyes, even tho he would be a licensing nightmare but whatever.

I'm still rooting for you guys and Geno. Never give up hope, remember that Sakurai has openly supported him as playable.
 

RetrogamerMax

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Saying K. Rool is the ONLY Ballot pick doesn't seem right. Ridley, Dark Samus, and Daisy definitely got votes, and I'm sure Simon and Chrom got a good amount of votes. Heck, "Everyone is Here!" was definitely the result of the Ballot. You can't tell me people didn't vote for Snake and Wolf.
I do agree that the DLC should be based around Ballot picks and not advertisements, however.
Ridley was a stage hazard, Dark Samus was an Assist Trophy, and Chrom was and still is part of Robin's Final Smash back in Smash 4, so not as many people probably voted for them during the Smash Ballot because of them already being in the game in that form. Daisy definitely got some votes through and so did all the cut veterans. Simon though didn't need the Ballot, he obviously got in for the same reasons Sonic, Snake, Megaman, Pac-Man, Ryu, and Cloud got in for which is being a legacy gaming icon.
 

MattX20

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I don't think it's such a good idea to write off Banjo like that given the character's huge popularity. He may not be in the first 2 or 3 spots, but a character with that much popularity could be saved for the very end of the season.

That, and I don't really believe anyone apart from Vergeben at this point, especially the people saying a Granblue Fantasy character is getting in despite the fact that the series never got released on a Nintendo console and is a 3rd party character almost no one would recognize. At least with Fire Emblem in Melee, the series was owned by Nintendo and had more than one game at that point and there was no financial risk of including them into Melee. 3rd parties however, cost a lot more money and would be potentially the worst selling character ever if they attempted it.
 

FalconFire93

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Katalina also flies in the face of Sakurai's philosophy of picking characters because:

1. It's a Japanese exclusive which Sakurai has said for 17 years that he tries to avoid.

2. It's from a series with a questionable future. It was a smash hit in Japan but that doesn't necessarily mean anything and it could just be flat out done for all we know.

Why would they choose a character for DLC that nobody wants, nobody recognizes, and doesn't promote anything readily accessible to like 95% of their global audience? I honestly resent the fact that this character keeps getting brought up and that's probably just me being a salty Takamaru fan.
I see that I’m not the only one who’s a fan of Takamaru, I was kinda bummed when he was an AT again because I thought with Mysterious Murasame Castle being released for the first time in the West for 3DS would help, but imo, the game should’ve been on the Wii U too back then and it might’ve sold more and I really hoped he would’ve been promoted from AT in this game like Little Mac was in the last game.
 

MattX20

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That, and as Vergeben has been relatively consistent on, the Square Enix rep will be the first DLC character, and Geno is by far the most likely given all the other aspects pointed out here. If the game turns out to just have Minecraft spirits, it may very well be the Minecraft content Verg has been consistent about. I've no real reason to doubt Geno being one of the five.
 

GenoFlash

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That, and as Vergeben has been relatively consistent on, the Square Enix rep will be the first DLC character, and Geno is by far the most likely given all the other aspects pointed out here. If the game turns out to just have Minecraft spirits, it may very well be the Minecraft content Verg has been consistent about. I've no real reason to doubt Geno being one of the five.
Well there's the upcoming release of DQXI on Switch, which would matter more to the Nintendo suits than a cult classic like Geno.
 

PolarPanda

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Well there's the upcoming release of DQXI on Switch, which would matter more to the Nintendo suits than a cult classic like Geno.
DQ 11 release date on Switch isn't looking anytime soon -- still didn't even get a date in the Enix presentation at this past E3. Whereas Geno is on the SNES classic, which outsold expectations and was rather recent. On top of people in NoA hearing his name float around.

Nintendo knowing Geno's demand in our crowd, the tweet about SMRPG being one of NoA's most liked tweets of all time, the SNES classic having SMRPG on it and outselling expectations by a lot.

Not to mention the legal hassle of using Dragon Quest, whereas Geno takes a minimal amount of effort. He's already represented in the game, whereas Dragon Quest is legal hell. None of this seems to imply DQ would be better for Nintendo themselves.
 
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*Verrix*

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Yea it seems not only is Geno the communities most popular Square rep he would be the cheapest option for Nintendo while also benefiting Square who desperately need something to help offset their losses.
 

Fatmanonice

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Dragon Quest XI for Switch was announced at TGS on September 24th of this year so it's been less than a month and a half since the public has even known that it would be a thing, making it a port that was announced sort of on the sly. I'd feel a lot more threatened if, say, it was announced last year at E3 with a definitive release date instead of "oh, it's coming! Probably... *looks at annual fiscal records and sweats nervously* Maybe next year..."
 

TeenGirlSquad

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Dragon Quest XI for Switch was announced at TGS on September 24th of this year so it's been less than a month and a half since the public has even known that it would be a thing, making it a port that was announced sort of on the sly. I'd feel a lot more threatened if, say, it was announced last year at E3 with a definitive release date instead of "oh, it's coming! Probably... *looks at annual fiscal records and sweats nervously* Maybe next year..."
That's true, but also remember that this might actually be part of the reason why Square would want to advertise Dragon Quest XI on the Switch, especially in the west. Dragon Quest needs more exposure here, or else it is always gonna flounder in this market despite the games having a lot of polish. However, I'm not sure there's much incentive for Nintendo, except to strengthen their relationship with Square Enix and advertise another Switch game I guess.
 

MattX20

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That's true, but also remember that this might actually be part of the reason why Square would want to advertise Dragon Quest XI on the Switch, especially in the west. Dragon Quest needs more exposure here, or else it is always gonna flounder in this market despite the games having a lot of polish. However, I'm not sure there's much incentive for Nintendo, except to strengthen their relationship with Square Enix and advertise another Switch game I guess.
But once again, the problem with that logic is that Vergeben had knowledge of a Square Enix rep coming well before the tweet from Sakurai confirming the DLC picks were locked. Since the Square rep will be the first revealed, the only truly likely character they could get is Geno. Slime or any DQ protagonist and Sora would have a lot of legal hurdles to clear
 

Wambo

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I've been off for a week or two because...

... Plant...

... But anything change? Does my Geno boi still have hope?...

Is he safe...? Is he... alright...?
 

MattX20

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I did not. What did he say?
Geno fans actually have things pretty good this cycle and even better than Brawl. I'd say most people are on our side this time along with a lot of notable people in the overarching Smash and Nintendo community. The worst was pre-DLC for SSB4. I don't think we've ever been the most hated fanbase either. Ashley is a good example of a fanbase that has it a lot worse, Toad too.

Anyways, just realized that Dragon Quest XI would be almost a year old port by the time the DLC characters started coming out and that a Switch port wasn't even announced until September, roughly two months ago. The time frame really doesn't line up because that would suggest that the decision was made very recently while the Square Enix character was implied as far back as late July. Vergeben has been implying that the SE character would be one of the first DLC characters revealed which means that even if Dragon Quest XI Switch was announced at this year's E3, it would have still been too early. Again, this is all on top of Square Enix not having a clue when they'll even be able to get to porting it because of all the work they're pouring into KH III.
That is what he said.
 
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MattX20

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Doesn't that neglect Dragon Quest's iconic status? It's not like Cloud was included because of an upcoming Switch game.
Dragon Quest is popular in Japan yes, but doesn't have the worldwide recognition like Final Fantasy does, nor does it have a character who's immediately recognizable like Cloud is.
 

Wambo

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Question: what does Sakurai mean by "NINTENDO picked the DLC"? Like, was there an internal vote by the employees?
 

MattX20

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Something that I'm amazed no one has seemingly brought up: would Nintendo really be opposed to having another Mario character in the roster? Given that it's their flagship/mascot series as a whole, I can't really believe they would say no to additional Mario characters for the roster.
 

Fatmanonice

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And I don't think the DQ VIII port for the 3DS counts in this instance either.
Hard to say. A 14 year old game that was 12 when it was ported to the 3DS. That falls more in the timeline of being considered but still late if the initial project plan was late 2015. A Smash character based on a decently successful worldwide port would be kind of overkill but I'm also not the guy in charge of pulling the trigger on this sort of thing.
 

MattX20

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Hard to say. A 14 year old game that was 12 when it was ported to the 3DS. That falls more in the timeline of being considered but still late if the initial project plan was late 2015. A Smash character based on a decently successful worldwide port would be kind of overkill but I'm also not the guy in charge of pulling the trigger on this sort of thing.
And even then, it was the PS2 version that was more successful. That, and the 3DS port didn't even get released in the West until 2 years after the ballot concluded.
 

SSGuy

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Dragon Quest 11 came out on July 29th, 2017. Does this not put the game in XC2 territory when it comes to deciding the roster? At least regarding Jade and other 11 characters?

Granted it doesn't write off Erdrick, but isn't he and his games apart of a licensing nightmare?
 

GenoFlash

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Dragon Quest 11 came out on July 29th, 2017. Does this not put the game in XC2 territory when it comes to deciding the roster? At least regarding Jade and other 11 characters?

Granted it doesn't write off Erdrick, but isn't he and his games apart of a licensing nightmare?
According to what I've been told the rights to Dragon Quest are divvied up between Square Enix, Armor Project, Akira Toriyama, and Koichi Sugiyama.
 

Datboigeno

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I find the fact that what’s his name hasn’t heard about Bandana Dee as being pretty suspicious. I don’t even like the character and it seems pretty clear something is up with him. He hasn’t shown up as a spirit, echo, or AT at this point and he’s one of the most regularly highly requested fighters. This makes me think he’s only hearing about a portion of the DLC roster or is being fed fake leaks.
 
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TeenGirlSquad

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I find the fact that what’s his name hasn’t heard about Bandana Dee as being pretty suspicious. I don’t even like the character and it seems pretty clear something is up with him. He hasn’t shown up as a spirit, echo, or AT at this point and he’s one of the most regularly highly requested fighters. This makes me think he’s only hearing about a portion of the DLC roster or is being fed fake leaks.
What's more suspicious is that he hasn't heard of any first-party characters and he says that (in his personal opinion) spirits disconfirm characters. I think he's wrong. Most likely there are over a thousand spirits, almost every first-party character conceivable is probably a spirit. If the game comes out and there are spirits for Geno and Bandana Dee and Elma and every other first-party character, I don't think it means anything.
 

PokéfreakofBACON

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I find the fact that what’s his name hasn’t heard about Bandana Dee as being pretty suspicious. I don’t even like the character and it seems pretty clear something is up with him. He hasn’t shown up as a spirit, echo, or AT at this point and he’s one of the most regularly highly requested fighters. This makes me think he’s only hearing about a portion of the DLC roster or is being fed fake leaks.
He never heard about King K Rool, either. I believe before the 8/8 direct he said "I have heard no evidence of King K Rool, but I'm hoping he's in." He doesn't ever hear all the information, just some of it. (assuming he's not just lying this whole time and has been really good at guessing)
 

Laszyking456

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Your all forgotten that Nintendo and square enix want to promote Dragon quest in the west for some reason idk why Nintendo does but they do. Why the Dragon quest game coming to Nintendo switch this is their nest Chance to promote it especially because it's popular in Japan. Do to us it would be for promote reasons however, in the east it would be a fan requested character for Japan just like how Ridley was to the west.
 
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PolarPanda

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I find the fact that what’s his name hasn’t heard about Bandana Dee as being pretty suspicious. I don’t even like the character and it seems pretty clear something is up with him. He hasn’t shown up as a spirit, echo, or AT at this point and he’s one of the most regularly highly requested fighters. This makes me think he’s only hearing about a portion of the DLC roster or is being fed fake leaks.
It's understandable. While I won't go into detail about where I get my info, what I can say is that they are tied to NoA, and they themselves have heard nothing except for an Enix rep (Geno, in this case).

It just seems that other DLC characters are not being spread around internally yet. Too far off, probably. The first DLC fighter (besides Piranha) is being announced WITHIN the next couple of months anyway, so it's relatively soon. Given time, Verge and even my source will hear more. I'm not taking Senjou's word since they backpeddle a bit.

What's more suspicious is that he hasn't heard of any first-party characters and he says that (in his personal opinion) spirits disconfirm characters. I think he's wrong. Most likely there are over a thousand spirits, almost every first-party character conceivable is probably a spirit. If the game comes out and there are spirits for Geno and Bandana Dee and Elma and every other first-party character, I don't think it means anything.
Care to link me to him ever saying he thinks spirits are deconfirmations? He implied Geno is one of the names he has heard, and I obsessively stalk all of his gamefaqs/reddit posts. Perhaps I missed something, but I don't recall him saying anything along those lines.
 
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PsychoIncarnate

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So, worst case scenario we don't get Sora or Geno

Dragon Quest character. Which is what I predicted would happen if we don't get Geno.
 

GenoFlash

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I don't think Geno's chances are unreasonable, but Dragon Quest does have a legacy to it. Even if that's just Japan it was the US that got Ridley in, and the broader West that got K.Rool. Thus far the only Japan-centric character has been Chrom, while Inkling and Isabelle command worldwide fanbases.

To me the only way Geno gets in is if Dragon Quest does prove to be impossible to acquire due to the litany of rights issues. I think that's a fair way to look at it, anyway.
 

MattX20

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And while it's true Dragon Quest is popular in Japan, we musn't forget Super Mario RPG is popular there as well, and Geno ranked really high on the most wanted characters according to SourceGaming.
 

GenoFlash

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Actually now that I think about it, would they sell DLC expected to only do well in Japan?

Like let's say Ridley was DLC. He'd sell like crap in Japan and NA would have to pick up the slack.
 

PolarPanda

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Actually now that I think about it, would they sell DLC expected to only do well in Japan?

Like let's say Ridley was DLC. He'd sell like crap in Japan and NA would have to pick up the slack.
That leads to an even better point towards Geno: he's actually requested quite a lot in all regions. Even in Japanese polls where he's not in the top 10 or 20, he has been credited. I'll have to dig around again to find them, but the fact he's also so requested in Japan alongside being one of the top 10 in the US makes him all around best for Nintendo's sales.
 

Fatmanonice

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Chrom was a popular pick worldwide. As pointed out before, Marth is the last 100% unique character that was added exclusively based on Japanese demand. Plus, another thing to keep in mind is that all the third party picks have had global appeal. Dragon Quest is overwhelmingly a Japanese favorite based on sales numbers. The series really hasn't had real big success outside Japan since the original at 1.5 million with notable dips for sequels.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Dragon_Quest
 
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