Do you guys think Geno is more likely earlier or later in this pass?
I'm still very much of the belief that the longer Geno goes unrevealed, the worse his chances get. Why? Well consider this:
A) Given the timing of Cacomallow, assuming it's real, it would mean that Geno has to be within at least the first 2 or so characters of FP2. If he's not fighter 6, 7 or 8, I'm going to start getting worried. Granted, he could still make it in regardless of Cacomallow being real, but logically speaking, without any additional leaks/rumors to bolster evidence, it would mean his chances are hardly better than anyone else's.
B) I'm 99% sure that if Nintendo is going to hit us with a massive "Oh my freaking gosh, I can't believe they made it!" fan pick, then it's going to either be the opener pick or somewhere in the middle to follow the B-K formula of FP1. The last DLC character will likely either be an explosive third party pick (like Master chief, etc.) or be a dud (like Byleth or PP). Since Geno is relatively obscure to the general public at large, I'm almost positive that he will not be first or last in the fighters pass, so my money is on him being #7 or #8.
C) Going along the lines of point B, Geno's chances will effectively drop with every reveal that ISN'T him with fighter #10 being, in my opinion, the last viable slot for him to fill. This assumption is based on the simple logic that fewer slots means fewer chances, especially considering whoever gets added in the meantime. For example, if we end up seeing ZERO characters from what's left of the Smash Ballot, and only see shill characters, that will not bode well for Geno at all. As more characters get added, we'll see a clearer picture of what could be in store, albeit loosely given Sakurai's knack for the unexpected.
In short: I think he's coming earlier.