Tbf I don't see Geno's chances or evidence as amounting to much more than any other character.
Alright, let's dive in.
I think the music takedowns have nothing to do with Geno in Smash.
So what are they for then? Nintendo's been way more lax with that kind of stuff. Why only take down those two specific songs and not the entire soundtrack?
Geno is in a bad spot of having content in base game.
He has a Sm4sh costume and an Ultimate spirit, as well as being a battle in World of Light. That's significantly better than Sora, MC, Lloyd, Dante, Crash, etc. This is an absolutely moot point.
You can scream fan rule all you want, but the fact remains that we have no precedent for DLC being present in the game in any form and until that precedent gets set all "evidence" for Geno is difficult to sell because of that.
I will scream fan rules when people keeping saying "SPIRITS DECONFIRM" and "X Y Z DECONFIRMS" when there's absolutely no reason for them to. We also now have hard proof that spirits can be renamed and have their battles modified (which isn't "evidence", but it's still a boon to Geno), and even in the past, Trophies didn't deconfirm (Lucas being DLC in Sm4sh).
Our evidence is that his Mii costume was missing for the entire first FP which is certainly good news rn but other costumes were missing until they weren't and there only appears to be some pattern to their release.
If they were going to just bring back his original costume though, why delay it? That makes no sense. Stick it in the Hero Mii Costume wave.
Also if you're saying Premium costume, I did say that had a chance of happening, but it's almost guaranteed to be that or, more likely, he will be playable. Nintendo would be absolutely dumb as hell to bring back the original costume after waiting this long (though TBH they'd also be dumb to make another costume for him).
In my eyes that makes Geno on an equal standing in terms of likeliness but I get where you're coming from. I just don't want to ignore things that could be important details just because people like to scream "fan rules" and I don't want to overstate the importance of minor details that very well could mean nothing. "Evidence" is a term used too loosely here imo but I certainly could be wrong and have been wrong about other things.
But you
are ignoring evidence and just waving them off as coincidences. You also said "I think the music takedowns have nothing to do with Geno in Smash", and said nothing else about them. You gave a moot point about Geno having little content in base game, yet it's still LOADS more than any of the other characters I named who have literally zilch in Ultimate (though some like Lloyd did have costumes and content in Sm4sh). I do not get your point at all here.
Much of the "evidence" we use is strictly subjective and thats the problem. We have very little objective evidence to use for any character.
Because you just waved it all off. Sakurai literally saying he likes Geno, he's perfect for Smash, and he even wanted him in. I'm willing to bet he pushed for Sm4sh as well but in the end he became a Mii costume. If all we're getting is his returning Mii costume, again, where is it? There's absolutely no reason to prolong it like this. Sakurai (and therefore, Nintendo) are well aware of the fan demand, and this is potentially the last Smash Bros game where they're trying to make as many people as possible happy. Yes,
that point is subjective, but mixed with other evidence, it really starts to make sense. Just one last reminder that all other characters have *NOTHING* going for them, and Geno has all this stuff
you're choosing to ignore.
I'll obviously state that no evidence will ever be 100% because nothing ever is until we see that splash screen, but if you wave off a bunch of stuff that adds up, then it seems like no evidence will matter to you, and at this point, we'll just agree to disagree.