Lots to talk about. Woke up this morning and saw a ton of people talking about Dante so I decided to analyze things and I came to the following conclusion... Dante's probably not coming for awhile but may wind up being character 11. I'll explain because I think the fanbase falls into this trap a lot.
When Sakurai "finalized" the Fighter's Pass:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/bgr.co...ash-bros-ultimate-dlc-fighters-finalized/amp/
Early November 2018. This means that 1-5 (possibly 6) were already picked at this point. Dante missed the boat. Moving on.
When Kamiya did his character poll:
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/20...his_characters_youd_like_to_see_in_smash_bros
Mid December 2018. This was when Kamiya was drafting ideas for Smash.
When Capcom first addressed Dante for Smash:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vg247.com/2019/02/07/dante-smash-bros-devil-may-cry-switch/amp/
Early February 2019. Capcom basically says that DMC has to not only appear a decent amount on Nintendo platforms but has to do well. This heavily suggests that Dante would not have been seriously considered for Smash yet because no DMC games were on Nintendo platforms yet. Moving on.
When Devil May Cry was first ported to the Switch:
https://www.nintendo.com/games/detail/devil-may-cry-switch/#game-info
June 2019. It was around this time period that Dante for Smash rumors were first heard by insiders. Realistically, this would be the earliest that Dante would be seriously considered for Smash and we're talking about negotiations and planning, never mind actual development, which Sakurai has said typically takes 10 months to a year for a character. This means that if Dante literally started development in late June, he'd only be about 7 months so... Kind of undercooked. This is what makes me doubt Dante for 5 or 6 but totally makes him a possibility for later.
Like I keep repeating, a common mistake made is that insiders believe the latest character they hear will be revealed soon. Vergeben fell for it with Hero. Papagenos fell for it for Banjo. Hitagi fell for it for Lloyd. Sabi fell for it for Geno. Paragon fell for it for Waluigi. "Mii costume guy" fell for it for Crash. Brew fell for it Ryu. I feel like people are falling for it again for Dante. I think all these people are correct... It's just that their timing is off but that's not at all unusual.
Ultimate began development in late 2015 and this means that the base roster was decided during this time. Pokemon Sun and Moon didn't even exist yet. Incineroar was literally just a placeholder at this point in development. Inceniroar wouldn't even be formally revealed until roughly two years after Sun and Moon came out. Incineroar was technically decided before it even existed and almost THREE YEARS before it was formally revealed in Smash. Let's extend this line of thinking to DLC.
DLC was supposedly pitched to Sakurai around the time Smash Ultimate was first revealed, so, early March 2018. Joker was released mid April 2019. Do you see where I'm going with this? Sakurai himself confirmed that Joker, Hero, and Banjo were all already in development in December 2018. Verge heard Hero in August 2018. Papagenos heard Banjo in October 2018. This all fits this timeline especially since we know the Fighter's Pass was "finalized" early November 2018.
Now, fitting ForsakenM's very insightful timeline theory, Season 2 was possibly pitched as early as December 2018. Let's name a bunch of characters that were heard either during this month or before: Waluigi, Ryu, Lloyd, Geno, and Dante. Why is this significant? It follows past precedent and Sakurai's practice of deciding characters first and then moving forward. Season 1 was already decided and being worked on, potentially leaving this pool of characters the first to be considered for Season 2. Like it's been demonstrated, it's not at all unusual for Sakurai to decide characters well in advance and work on them later, usually with their official reveal being years off in the future, after all, returning characters like Snake and the Ice Climbers would be decided in late 2015 but not revealed until mid 2018.
So, what am I getting at? Just to be more obnoxious than I already am, I'm going to take this timeline in consideration and say that Dante will probably be coming... Eventually. My guess is that he'll be 11 at the earliest or he'll kick off "the Final Season." So, what does my little timeline suggest?
-It suggests that Nintendo probably had a good idea of who they wanted for the Fighter's Pass by the end of 2017, nearly two years after development began. This is was also the end of the Switch's first full year, which not only helps explain the content we've gotten in the base game but the Fighter's Pass. For example, this definitely helps explain why popular characters like Rex missed out, because Nintendo already had a good idea who they wanted as DLC before 2017 even ended. Nintendo probably sat on the list until Ultimate was formally revealed.
-It suggests that Nintendo already had a good number of characters it was strongly considering for Season 2 before the Fighter's Pass was even fully decided. Sakurai planning for "Season 2" almost immediately following finalizing Season 1 really isn't that unusual especially when you consider Ultimate began pretty much as soon as Smash 4 wrapped up and at GDC 2008 Sakurai more or less admitted he already had plans in mind for the next Smash game after Brawl. The man thinks ahead to a frightening degree and it's probably how he keeps his sanity.
-My theory gets adjusted to this: 5: Dragonborn, 6: some tall guy, I dunno, 7: Geno, 8: Lloyd, 9: Crash, 10: Ryu:, 11: Dante? This also fits the rumor that there's currently 6 characters planned after 5. Minus Crash, all these characters were technically heard as far back as 2018, a time period that we've established that Sakurai was probably already considering characters for Season 2.
Now, to clean up bits and pieces:
"What about Joker? Joker wasn't on Nintendo platforms in late 2017."
Joker wasn't but Persona was.
Persona Q:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persona_Q:_Shadow_of_the_Labyrinth
This game came out in 2014. This also doesn't include the super long history of Shin Megami Tensei games on Nintendo platforms. Like Cloud, it didn't matter if his signature game wasn't on Nintendo platforms because his series definitely already had a presence. This also adds to my theory as to why Dante wouldn't have been considered until much later (his first game on Switch wasn't until summer 2019) and part of why Dragonborn was probably picked over Doom Marine (March vs October 2017, Skyrim for Switch would have already had about a year's worth of sales data to influence Nintendo's decision to consider to pitch it to Sakurai in March 2018).
"What about Crash?"
My personal theory is that Crash has followed a timeline similar to Banjo. Idea was pitched early 2018, negotiations started around E3, development started fall 2018, and his release was fall 2019. My theory is that characters are most likely to be "heard" either when they start negotiations or when they very first begin development. My theory is that Crash began negotiations around E3 2019 so that he'd be ready for an E3 2020 reveal.
Uh, I think that covers everything for now.