D
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We are in rare agreement in general terms of disagreeing with "asset reuse". It's not like drawing a picture where now that we have a reference we can make a perfect Geno, and a lot more goes into 3D models.I mean, it helps get you in the head space of their looks at best, but I don't think they're really going to accomplish much beyond that. King K. Rool was a ballot choice from day one intended for Ultimate, so it's not really surprising that they started adapting him that far back and he was sort of always going to get in (I mean, yes, details from the costume were used, but that's so very little of the process of developing a character). Similarly, Chrom was A. A humanoid Fire Emblem character, B. An Echo fighter of Roy so they had to do even less work to get him up and running, and C. Had a full 3D model available thanks to his appearance in Robin's Final Smash that in of itself was further than Mii costume.
I'm not saying anything about this all affecting Geno's chances, but I am saying that I just don't think a Mii costume is going to be much sway in adapting a character because of "pre-existing assets" when that's so, so little of the character.
It feels like saying it's easier to make a meal because I have salt. Like, yes, I can absolutely use that salt in the meal preparation... but there's so very much more that I need to prepare the meal that it's not really going to sway my decision in which dish I actually end up making.
I will say, the more I consider it, the more a few things do line up. This is definitely not a K. Rool or Isabelle situation, because we can run on the same assumptions you put forward for Chrom. Geno probably officially has the proportions of the medium build Mii Gunner, or possibly even the small (on that subject, isn't it odd that they took out the size variations for Miis? I don't think that means anything, it's just kind of strange, but I'm sure it made balance easier.). He's a Mario character, so the proportions are going to be cartoony no matter how we slice it, so it isn't like an anime swordsman situation - his costume was more real than not in terms of his body, obviously the clothes are a little up in the air. With some retexturing and obviously a new skeleton, I could actually see Geno's Mii costume being the basis for his body. Swap out the placeholder gun, fix up the cape to be less of a caricature, and obviously make a new head for him, which naturally would come with a new hat just because of the size of his noggin.