Just an interesting little factoid for those of you who didn't watch Arlo's video...
He makes his predictions for the all of 2020 including Ultimate DLC, and his claims for character predictions are:
- Geno as FP#5
- Travis Touchdown as #6
- Rayman as #7
- Dr. Robotnik as #8
- Customizable Hunter from Monster Hunter as #9
- Master Chief as #10 and being the last of the DLC that Ultimate will receive
Now first and foremost, shame on you all who thought this was anything more than predictions. If you actually WATCH the video or READ the title of it, you will know about the contents of the video. Also, some simple research can show you that while Arlo has made a couple of predictions that came wildly true, he is not a leaker or insider.
Second, I have trouble agreeing with some of these being possible at all or at least in what order. Geno being #5 isn't impossible but it's very unlikely and as much as I'd love for that to happen I don't expect it. I find it funny, however, that youtubers who both have no insider information (Arlo) and those who do (GameXplain) keep talking about both Geno being possible and happening sooner than we think he will be. And then we had Geno being a prominate figure in KFAD despite losing super early yet again? Who would have thought we would push the blue puppet boi to such heights!
I think Travis Touchdown, Rayman and Dr. Robotnik are all possible but I'm not sure of how likely they are. I get that people have said that Suda was all like 'Nah, not this time chief!' but frankly we've seen people who work on games both allude to no and flat-out say no and then it ends up happening. Remember: NDAs allow you to allude to no or say no, but not yes. On top of this, it sounds like this may have been a timeframe where Suda wasn't approached by Sakurai yet and that it could have happened later in the year to be made a reality, but that's just my speculation without knowing too much about the dates. Rayman being proof of the partnership with Ubisoft makes sense to me and if Sega gets another character I can only foresee Dr. Robotnik but I'm not confident on Sega getting another character.
I disagree completely on Monster Hunter as we already got the 'Mario' 'Ryu' or 'Terry' of Monster Hunter, and that is Rathalos. If Sakurai had wanted to upgrade the costumes to playable for Monster Hunter, it would have been done when negotiating for Rathalos...but it didn't happen, so I wouldn't expect them at all. Cool idea, but Mii Fighters already exist so...yeah.
I don't see MC happening at all, personally. I think
was a one-time thing and that we will not get any more character from Microsoft. On top of that, I really doubt the DLC will end here. I think that Sakurai may try to gun for 100 fighters before calling it a day mainly because this is clearly his magnum opus and if he is finally enjoying working on Smash for the first time in a long time, why would he quit just yet?
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Moving on to speculation, I'm not going to act like Sakurai's tweets are hinting at any character or a release date or anything. I just think he's having some fun at the end of the year. However, he is what I will say: his tweets confirmed something many of us thought, which that the dev build has an option to have all the characters taunt at the EXACT same time. Like, we all pretty much knew this and this is one of many tools they have to create cute stuff for trailers and photos both in and out of game...but to me, this basically locks in CacoMallow. Why?
Well one of the big things that people hated on the image itself was that it was possible to nearly perfectly time that photo being taken but even then it was VERY difficult to do by just a regular user. However, looking back at the Ken Debug leak as proof, it would be MUCH easier for both the Ken Debug photo and the CacoMallow photo to be taken in a dev build just with that simple 'Okay, now pose all at once like it's WarioWare stage and your life depends on it!' command. This to me goes towards Occam's Razor (which, for simplicity sake of a definition, means that the simplest answer or solution is likely the correct one) because to apply Occam's Razor you have to do the following:
- For each explanation, determine how many assumptions and conditions are required to make to make that explanation correct.
- If an explanation requires multiple assumptions or conditions versus another explanation, demand evidence to prove the strength of those claims.
- The wilder the claim the stronger the needed evidence to back it up.
For CacoMallow being a real leak, it requires less assumptions and evidence to back it up and we have evidence for it. It's actually rather simple: a dev leaked both an image and videos of gameplay of future Mii costumes which could hint at future characters. We have the evidence that the devs have a simple command to get all character to taunt at the same time, we have evidence that devs have leaked real information before via an image with all the characters taunting at the same time, we have evidence that both the image and the videos hold multiple similarities to the Ken Debug leak to prove that the image and the videos are in fact in Debug Mode, and we have circumstantial evidence in the fact that even after all this time no one has come out and proven they faked it and that no one has been able to replicate it perfectly but rather (again much like the Ken Debug leak) that no one can prove it and the leak has been all but forgotten about by the masses.
Now, when you compare this to CacoMallow being fake...
Well there are a lot more assumptions and a lot less evidence and the assumptions are much more wild. The argument here is that a single person managed to mod the game in a way no one had figured out how to do before and still not to the extend that this person has done to provide quality Mii costumes while dealing with a system of file compressing that only Bandai Namco and the Sakurai Crew really know how to manage fully correctly and every other modder complains about how difficult it is to manage...and then not only did this TWICE (once per costume) but also designed them in a way that is higher quality than nearly any other mod and is nearly professional-level quality (looks like they are actually made by Ultimate devs) as well as designing the Cacodemon hat in a way that would be Nintendo-approved as more 'family-friendly' rather than just taking an easier approach AND took the time to perfectly time three characters taunting at the same time without dev tools at a SPECIFIC time on a stage and from a SPECIFIC angle that would be easier to get with dev tools and taking all this effort to just LOOK professional...all just for some internet points and 'stirring the pot' and still has yet to come out and take credit for the fake leak all this time later?
Yeah...