Fatmanonice
Banned via Warnings
A BIG shout-out to
ForsakenM
and his theories yesterday because it made me had multiple epiphanies (no, that's not a euphemism...) about my own theories and gave me new trains of thought to ride on. I'll split these thoughts into two main sections in two separate posts.
1. The Element of Time
When considering my own theories, I often ignored the importance of the element of time, especially when theorizing when certain decisions were made. Thanks to Sakurai, we know development on Ultimate started in late 2015, that DLC was decided Spring 2018, and that the plans for the Fighter's Pass were finalized late Fall 2018. Recently we discovered that plans for Season 2 were probably finalized around E3 2019 so that begs the question... When did Nintendo decide on additional DLC?
Thanks to ForsakenM 's theory, we have a strong hypothesis for this. Chances are it was decided shortly after the Fighter's Pass was announced, likely December or January. How do we know this? One big clue is that the 16 dummy slots for Smash Ultimate appeared in the game's code in January. This means that if Season 2 and possibly beyond was decided here, it was finalized around E3, about 6 1/2 months later. Why does this sound familiar? If Smash Ultimate's DLC was decided Spring 2018 but finalized early November 2018, this also a similar time gap: about 6 1/2 to 7 months. Very interesting coincidence.
This timeframe is further strengthened by what we know. Sakurai has said that characters take roughly 10 months to a year to develop from negotiation, to planning, to actual development, to the final product. If the Fighter's Pass planning was kicked off Spring 2018, it makes sense that Joker was released this Spring. Hero was first heard August 2018 and, lo and behold, he was released almost exactly a year later on the dot. Banjo's negotiations supposedly started around E3 2018 and was formally announced a year later. Again, it could be argued that there's a pattern here.
With this mapped out, what does this tell us? It means that the gap between the Fighter's Pass being finalized and Season 2 being green lit was probably 2 months AT MOST. In development time, that's incredibly short notice and kind of abrupt. This seems to suggest that Nintendo was so blown away by pre-orders for the Fighter's Pass that they greenlit more DLC very quickly (and also provides an explanation to why most character names have been heard since last year). This means that decisions about the Fighter's Pass didn't have time for extreme changes so Nintendo's approach was to just to subtract things instead of replace them. Geno and Chocobo were cut but not replaced in Pass 2, same with Heihachi in Pass 4. This actually adds some amazing fortitude to the Power of Six Theory and gives us even stronger clues about 5. I will continue these thoughts in my next post.
1. The Element of Time
When considering my own theories, I often ignored the importance of the element of time, especially when theorizing when certain decisions were made. Thanks to Sakurai, we know development on Ultimate started in late 2015, that DLC was decided Spring 2018, and that the plans for the Fighter's Pass were finalized late Fall 2018. Recently we discovered that plans for Season 2 were probably finalized around E3 2019 so that begs the question... When did Nintendo decide on additional DLC?
Thanks to ForsakenM 's theory, we have a strong hypothesis for this. Chances are it was decided shortly after the Fighter's Pass was announced, likely December or January. How do we know this? One big clue is that the 16 dummy slots for Smash Ultimate appeared in the game's code in January. This means that if Season 2 and possibly beyond was decided here, it was finalized around E3, about 6 1/2 months later. Why does this sound familiar? If Smash Ultimate's DLC was decided Spring 2018 but finalized early November 2018, this also a similar time gap: about 6 1/2 to 7 months. Very interesting coincidence.
This timeframe is further strengthened by what we know. Sakurai has said that characters take roughly 10 months to a year to develop from negotiation, to planning, to actual development, to the final product. If the Fighter's Pass planning was kicked off Spring 2018, it makes sense that Joker was released this Spring. Hero was first heard August 2018 and, lo and behold, he was released almost exactly a year later on the dot. Banjo's negotiations supposedly started around E3 2018 and was formally announced a year later. Again, it could be argued that there's a pattern here.
With this mapped out, what does this tell us? It means that the gap between the Fighter's Pass being finalized and Season 2 being green lit was probably 2 months AT MOST. In development time, that's incredibly short notice and kind of abrupt. This seems to suggest that Nintendo was so blown away by pre-orders for the Fighter's Pass that they greenlit more DLC very quickly (and also provides an explanation to why most character names have been heard since last year). This means that decisions about the Fighter's Pass didn't have time for extreme changes so Nintendo's approach was to just to subtract things instead of replace them. Geno and Chocobo were cut but not replaced in Pass 2, same with Heihachi in Pass 4. This actually adds some amazing fortitude to the Power of Six Theory and gives us even stronger clues about 5. I will continue these thoughts in my next post.
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