Fatmanonice, I have a genuine question, and it is legitimately not meant to come across rude.
But what makes Nightmare as Fighter #5 any different than the other characters that seemingly made sense? I know you're not a leaker, but a speculator. But (and I never thought I'd see the day), I agree with
@wynn728. It seems like every single character that has kind of lined up or seemed likely for Fighter #5 gets shot down. It really is like that SpongeBob gif wynn pulls up. I know it could always be a curve ball like you have been saying also, but you just made a post on why Nightmare lines up so much and I just worry that it'll be nothing again and Sabi deconfirms him.
Recently you seemed so confident about Lloyd. You were saying how all these things make sense, but now you're saying he makes sense as post pass. (Again, I am NOT trying to be rude and my annoyance isn't at you, but rather the state of Smash speculation being essentially the opposite of Oprah at the moment.) I just wonder what makes Nightmare any different from the other times things lined up... only to get toppled down again. Once more, I'm not mad or anything at you Fatmanonice. I am very grateful that you even take the time to indulge inconsequential posts like this one and keep people like me in the loop.
Two words: Scientific Method. Like I've said, I'm not afraid of being wrong and part of the scientific method is being willing to change your view points in the face of newer and stronger evidence. You start with a hypothesis (character 5 will belong to Namco) and then you find evidence to support that hypothesis. Based on the evidence you find, you then draw certain conclusions (character 5 will probably be a Tales character) but then newer and stronger pieces of evidence can topple that (Sabi's source says that 5 absolutely is not from Tales) and you have to redirect your conclusions (character 5 will probably be from Soul Caliber). Of course, an honest scientist recognizes that the Scientific Method is not finite and that all conclusions should: 1. be carefully analyzed and reanalyzed, 2. regularly challenged and be able to "stand up for itself" and 3. be willing to be changed if newer and stronger evidence suggests that it's inaccurate or wrong.
Take for example the post I made earlier:
"Nightmare fits a lot of patterns that I've honestly been mulling over for literally two months:
-Fits my "Thank You" theory.
-Fits the Power of Six theory.
-Gives credence to why the four/five front runners in insider circles were all sword fighters: Lloyd, Nightmare, Sol, Dante, and Sephiroth.
-Follows the predominant "niche" theme of the Fighter's Pass.
-Follows past patterns of Smash games ending on niche/underwhelming characters to the general Smash fanbase.
-Pushing Lloyd to Post Pass gives credence to the strong theory that Post Pass will be pretty fanservicey based on the names heard and Lloyd definitely fits that bill a lot better than Nightmare.
-Fits Reggie's "entirely new to Smash" comments to a T.
Just like with Lloyd, I don't want to get too ahead of myself and if I were to revise my statement from the other day: Nightmare = rando >>> Sol >>>>>>>>>>>> anyone hard deconfirmed by Sabi's sources for 5."
Note how I said that Nightmare fits patterns that I've been analyzing for two months. When Sabi's source tossed out Lloyd/Tales, I didn't throw everything away, I merely went back to the drawing board to re-examine my conclusions. Upon my re-examination, I opened my thinking to new possibilities, possibilities that arguably created a stronger hypothesis.
Key point of redirected analysis: Nightmare has more in common with Joker, Hero, Banjo, and Terry than Lloyd does and fits the Fighter's Pass better.
-A running theme of all the Fighter's Pass characters is history of crossovers. As pointed out earlier, Soul Caliber is much stronger than Tales in that regard and coincidentally would be the strongest of the Fighter's Pass, a brand new conclusion based on redirected analysis.
-As many people have argued, Reggie said that the Fighter's Pass would introduce worlds and characters totally new to Smash. If we take this at absolute face value, Soul Caliber fits this better than Tales because Smash 4 has the Lloyd Mii costume while Soul Caliber has never had anything in Smash.
-Fighting game crossovers. Ultimate currently has content from: Street Fighter, Fatal Fury, King of Fighters, Samurai Showdown, Tekken, Virtua Fighter, the Megaman fighting games, the Sonic fighting games, Marvel vs Capcom, Garou, Joy Mech Fight, Marvel vs SNK, etc. Based on this, Soul Caliber would be a natural addition.
-Soul Caliber 2 had Link, the first time a major Nintendo IP was used in a third party franchise, a very notable event in Nintendo's history. Tales doesn't really have an event like this in its history that compares.
Again, these are new lines of thinking that opened up because we accepted that our original conclusion was wrong or at least a lot less likely to be true. On that note, Sabi's source could be wrong but that's an illogical conclusion. It's a possibility to consider but based on the evidence is not a smart thing to get hung up on. In the end, yes, sometimes it does seem like jumping from sinking ship to sinking ship but the Scientific Method is not static, it's dynamic. It's not stationary, it's proactive. This is ultimately the key to good and thoughtful speculation, no matter the topic.