Geno's got a good a shot as anybody not on the roster right now (Vergeben Square Enix leak is what I'm holding out for) but you also gotta understand that the fans of this character repeatedly had their hopes kicked in the shins for well over twelve years now, longer if you consider that Geno (and SMRPG in general) hasn't had a real followup appearance since 1996 when the game came out.
I'm one of them. xD
I'm not speaking from a place of ignorance here. I've been on this train for over 12 years now as well.
Naturally we're approaching speculation this time our hearts cautiously guarding while holding on to flickers of hope for our Star Warrior to make his return. Also a lot of us are much more active in the Discord.
I can understand that. At the same time though, I don't think it's necessary to be all that worried.
I would be genuinely astonished if the last character for DLC was announced and Geno hadn't already been included in the game by that point (base or DLC). Geno is playing with a full deck, frankly. Heck, he actually has stronger evidence than even Incineroar (who literally
only has Vergeben).
Geno has the Sakurai interview from 2016 (he would have known the roster by that point; that was the time to deconfirm him,
not hype him up), special attention with the Mii costume splash screen (and along with K. Rool, was more significant a Mii costume than the others because he's
not relevant; meaning he was
strictly included due to Smash popularity) and he even (loosely) has Vergeben. He was also (most likely) the most popular Square Enix character in the Smash Ballot in a game that is being tailor-made for fan requests.
Sora requires Disney and Square to play ball (and would generate more money as DLC; would be a better strategy there rather than base), Dragon Quest has never been localized in the West and they're only
now making those plans so they would have missed the buck for the roster finalization back in 2016 (as well as being a licensing nightmare), Chrono, I believe, is also a licensing nightmare and is in irrelevancy hell (there seems to be something bigger going on there; I've seen it explained before but basically Chrono Trigger is
dead dead). And given that Final Fantasy seems to be locked to VII, I wouldn't put money on a different protagonist making the cut. Outside of Sora, his competition isn't very strong.
No other character has this much
hard evidence. A lot of them are just riding on ballot popularity (which Geno
also has).
Let the hype flow through you, my brother.~