I want to really preface this by saying that I have nothing particularly against Lloyd. It might seem that way because I’m frequently ragging on his/Namco’s chances(specifically as #5, not for post-pass), but I have nothing against him as a character and think dual swords could be really neat. Especially if he uses any sort of spinning attacks with them, I quite like those kinds of things.
However, with that all said, I see the prediction of “Lloyd is the most likely candidate for #5” so incredibly often that it legitimately dumbfounds me.
-Fighter #1, the first JRPG rep, introduced Atlus, which had zero Smash representation prior to Ultimate.
-Fighter #2, the second JRPG rep, introduced the Enix side of Square Enix, which had zero Smash representation prior to Ultimate.
-Fighter #3, a platformer rep, signified a huge cross-company partnership that allowed one of the largest requests in the series’ history to break through a bunch of legal barriers and finally make it after nearly two decades.
-Fighter #4, a fighting game rep, introduced SNK, which had zero Smash representation prior to Ultimate.
And, if #5 is Lloyd, then, well, it’d look something like this:
-Fighter #5, the third JRPG rep, was a moderately requested character from the game’s co-developer, and the second character overall from the Namco side of Bandai-Namco.
I just can’t see a timeline where Nintendo sets aside the final character of the pass(which no matter what they say will inevitably be treated as the largest reveal on account of it being the final blind purchase and the one right after “Sakurai’s personal-yet-somewhat-obscure pick”) for a Gamecube-era JRPG rep, the third character specifically from that genre out of a total of five, by the company that is literally co-developing the game with them.
“But wait,” you might say, “Aren’t you being a massive hypocrite here? Most of your points against Lloyd can apply to Geno.”
And to that, well... I absolutely don’t expect Geno as #5 either, but I’m fully on board with the idea that both him and Lloyd are post-pass. My whole point here is that him as #5 just doesn’t add up in my opinion, because for them to suddenly divert from “representing new companies” to basically the exact opposite of that for the final character would be... quite the decision. Post-pass, though, anything can happen, and I fully expect that he(or at least a second Bandai-Namco rep) will be playable sometime next year.
I know I’m rambling here, I just see this so incredibly, incredibly often, especially in this thread, that I wanted to explain my stance further than offhand remarks.
Anyway, getting back on topic, we’re now in day four of the Mii Costume leak not being able to be fully replicated by modders or debunked by insiders, which is an incredibly good sign.