It is a stretch to direct it to Geno but, as it stands, the most likely Directs in the coming weeks are Fire Emblem or Smash. I'm leaning more towards Smash for a number of reasons:
-Knowing what the ten of us like and usually talk about, including him, I don't think he'd make a big deal out of a Fire Emblem Direct.
-It's super unlikely for a Direct and a shadow drop to happen in the same week. The time frame suggests it would be one or the other.
-Smash Amiibo due out this week. Amiibo are dropped on Fridays, and based on the past, meaning the shadow drop will need to happen today and that's looking unlikely at the moment.
-Honestly not sure what else they could cover about Fire Emblem since it's had multiple trailers including one at E3.
We'll see in due time though.