Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[Deleted member]

Don't cherrypick it. I already noted that it slowly makes it look likely as time goes on. If you're not going to reply to the full point being made, you're vastly misinterpreting it. Yes, it's a pretty hefty amount of time right now.

It's not misinformation. The longer it goes without a reveal, the more it casts doubt on it. Extreme I can concur is not the best term, but that's actually been how people are acting(which is silly, but I'm actually quoting what people are treating like it's fully debunked). 4 months is a lot of time. While I don't think it means that much, I can't blame people for finding it more likely to be fake as time goes on. Costumes are not the same as characters either, and many believe they take a lot less time(a full character takes as little as 6 months, and that's for non-Echoes to our knowledge). Time does matter.

We don't know when the Sans costume was actually negotiated for enough for it to be a real factor, though(we just know it had to be finished by when the episode was recorded, and that's not a useful timezone otherwise. We're missing the first half of teh puzzle). So I can't take that into consideration as evidence. I'll remove the word extreme, but it's not really as off as people are making it. Basically, we lack any information on negotiations and when the costumes got started for it to be a real factor. It's understandable nobody knows what to think in this case.

Also, as I noted, I want the actual tweet, not a quick quote of part of it. That matters for a lot of people because many treat it as a death sentence. I don't, but some do. It's pretty big evidence against the leak no matter how you slice it. "Nowhere serious" can easily mean "absolutely nothing was negotiated for in the end" just as much as "we didn't mean a playable character". It's got more than one interpretation. I don't think it's PR jargon, though. It's closer to more of an NDA specific way to deny anything happened despite it did, if the leak remains true. If it somehow means we could still get Doomslayer, then it's not about jargon. It's about directly lying to not let out information(which is the point behind an NDA. Deny everything is one way to fully do so).

I hardly think I'm cherrypicking when I'm not using that one point to devalue your entire argument, especially when mostly I'm in agreement with you that Mallowdemon is still in limbo after three months - I just don't think that from where we're sitting, the amount of time that has passed is a good argument and I gave my reasoning. For the record, my feelings on when Sans was negotiated for are based on Toby's accounts of his journey to Japan on Twitter - nothing definitive, I just think the guy unwittingly left something of a paper trail.

Also, I don't think that there was ever a tweet that said "we talked to Nintendo and nothing serious happened", but there was an interview that was tweeted by various speculation news outlets.

 

[Polarthief]

That said, if Mandycan is wrong about Crash, I hope people aren't awful to him

Deffo won't be awful, you have my word, but everything he says in the future will be taken with a lot of salt or flat out ignored. TBH, the direct isn't that hard to just guess. Hell I guessed the week (assuming this is the week) of the direct the day Byleth got revealed.

I do still hope they're wrong because I'd like to see someone I care about for #6, but that's just me being selfish. Not hating on Crash, I just have no nostalgia or want for him so he's to me what Terry is (outside of the "Who?" factor).

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I hardly think I'm cherrypicking when I'm not using that one point to devalue your entire argument, especially when mostly I'm in agreement with you that Mallowdemon is still in limbo after three months - I just don't think that from where we're sitting, the amount of time that has passed is a good argument and I gave my reasoning. For the record, my feelings on when Sans was negotiated for are based on Toby's accounts of his journey to Japan on Twitter - nothing definitive, I just think the guy unwittingly left something of a paper trail.

Also, I don't think that there was ever a tweet that said "we talked to Nintendo and nothing serious happened", but there was an interview that was tweeted by various speculation news outlets.

It's cherrypicking when you aren't even quoting the entire full line.

Please don't do that and actually take everything I say into account.

That said, I edited in more information since you brought up some points that needed to be noted too.

And ah. You know where the article is? It seems like that tends to get misquoted these days.

And while that's a possibility for when Sans was negotiated for, that gives us zero clue on when the costume was made or how long they take. So the data more or less doesn't help the argument on "taking too much time"(which I don't think matters cause they can easily be done vastly in advance, but we don't know if they actually are or not. Considering that Byleth's showcase was done in November too, that means that Sans' costume was probably done by that time or somewhat earlier. Maybe they take a month to make?).

For the record, I was just bringing up points said since it was asked. I don't really think Cacomallow is dead to begin with even with "it taking a while to release a costume" either. But I also wouldn't be surprised if it's a leak of cut content either, which would explain why it never came about, and very much fits with the article too. Nothing serious came about meaning negotiations didn't go through, as one possible interpretation. They still made the costumes as proof of concept, but couldn't use them in the end cause the companies said no(or company. We may still have a Mallow costume coming even with Cacodemon being not allowed for use). It's one of my favorite parts about this overall leak, because it has a lot more meat to it than just "oh, a leaked costume" and that's it. Sad part is, if it's a case of they're not coming but were actually made, we probably have no way to find out outside of Square-Enix not agreeing to further SMRPG content in an article. And that would make them look bad for Nintendo PR, as well as their own, so I doubt they'd admit that. On the other hand, if we get no SMRPG and Doom costumes and no further DLC after Pass 2, then we can conclude that was probably the case. And that includes no playable Geno. There's a ton of routes this could take, and this leak actually makes it more interesting for speculation.

---------------------------

Just wanted to quickly note as a Yugioh player that it's officially going very strong in the TCG and OCG and the only thing that went a bit poorly was Links due to removing the ability to summon ED monsters anywhere. The latest change to that gameplay fixes some of that, and people are very very happy. A lot of players come and go, some due to confusing mechanics(Pendulums and Links are not easy to get into compared to previous ones), and banlists they are not fans of, a long with a severe amount of shortprinting that makes collecting or playing difficult sometimes(budget decks absolutely exist) without a lot of money.

Only wanted to note that since, well, it came up. >.>;

 

[JarBear]

Here is the interview website, it was with Metro:

https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/21/doom...ew-chess-arcade-shooter-12095644/?ito=cbshare

Here is the exact exchange from the interview:

Spoiler: Quotes

GC: What about the rumours of Doom Slayer being in Smash Bros.? [This was a couple of days before the Byleth announcement – GC] Do you think it could ever happen?

MS: I don’t know. We’ve asked them.

GC: You asked them?

MS: Yeah.

GC: Well, that’s how Solid Snake got in it. Would they discount it just because of the gore and violence though?

MS: I dunno. You would honestly have to ask them. We’ve never been approached and said, ‘Hey can Doomguy be in Smash Bros.?’ But we’re open-minded if they wanna ask. But we hear it all the time [from fans]. Who would say no? [laughs]

GC: But you did ask them?

MS: We’ve had… I don’t even know who talked to who, but we’ve bantered with them. We have a great relationship with them through bringing Doom 2016 to Switch and that kind of stuff. So we have great people over there but it’s one of those things where it’s like, ‘Wouldn’t it be cool?’ But it’s never gone anywhere serious, so we’ll see.

So anyway, per the interview it was specific to DoomGuy/Slayer/Marine/Whatever you want to call him. At no point did they say "No Doom content" in Smash. That is why the CacoMallow leak is still possible.

The best way to describe the situation is to call this Schrödinger's CacoMallow. It's both alive and dead until either a reveal of ANY of those items, the "faker" posts his/her proof of making the mii costumes OR Smash Ultimate's DLC is done and we don't see any of those things.

 

[Fatmanonice]

My whole thing is that Mandycan's contact is probably right about Crash... But the timing is wrong. I went on a long spiel about it some weeks ago but this has happened to pretty much everyone prevalent in Smash speculation during this cycle. Verge was wrong about Hero being first but ultimately right about Hero anyways is a prime example. I feel like it's another situation like this. As an onlooker, that's what sucks because you know people are going to be terrible in the event that he's wrong, only for it to come true at some point in the future. Kind of like I talked about today, E3 characters are a lot easier to nail to the point that there's people who probably definitively know already because Nintendo makes a BFD of those announcements and plans accordingly. Based on what I know, I'm still sticking to my predictions but I also want to note my predictions come from my past mistakes especially with Hero and Byleth which is why they aren't 1:1 from New Year's Eve.

 

[Vector Victor]

And Cloud shows that it doesn't have to be a big showcase date to have an earth shattering announcement. Crash can just as easily be at a Fall Direct as he could be at E3.

4 also gave their E3 time to Palutena, not Greninja/Charizard, Robin/Lucina or Shulk as chatacters people would think would get that major spotlight. So guessing character placement for hype reasons is not 100% successful.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

And Cloud shows that it doesn't have to be a big showcase date to have an earth shattering announcement. Crash can just as easily be at a Fall Direct as he could be at E3.

4 also gave their E3 time to Palutena, not Greninja/Charizard, Robin/Lucina or Shulk as chatacters people would think would get that major spotlight. So guessing character placement for hype reasons is not 100% successful.

Indeed.

Also, Pac-Man got revealed in an offscreen event, instead that E3 had Palutena and Mii Fighters. You know, Pac-Man of all characters. Cloud's one thing, but Pac-Man is on a whole nother level of big. Reveals are weird. Obviously promotional timing is a factor too. Isabelle's timing is clear on that.

 

[Lord Woomy]

I wouldn't say this is a ruse and it's actually pretty typical. For people with insider info, they usually fall into one of two camps: Vague AF or Cocky AF. I try to be somewhere in the middle so I'm only mildly insufferable most days.

Hmm didn't know that but it still ain't a great look for Mandy. It drives me up the wall even more than the vague style of speculation because it comes off as awfully arrogant. Mandy seems to be a bit extra from anything I've seen, with how confident they are, you'd assume they toured Nintendo and was given a playable demo of Crash. It just smells very fishy to me.

 

[Polarthief]

My whole thing is that Mandycan's contact is probably right about Crash... But the timing is wrong.

Oh I fully believe Crash is in because it'd be weird for him to not be in at this point (unless Sakurai thinks he can't make a kit for him, which I doubt). I just still stand by that he's not a great DLC 6 pick to kick off FP2.

 

[Vector Victor]

Indeed.

Also, Pac-Man got revealed in an offscreen event, instead that E3 had Palutena and Mii Fighters. You know, Pac-Man of all characters. Cloud's one thing, but Pac-Man is on a whole nother level of big. Reveals are weird. Obviously promotional timing is a factor too. Isabelle's timing is clear on that.

Nintendo hype building can be weird and disjointed.

Sometimes, Nintendo has their fingers on the fandom pulse and are able to almost read the fans' minds on what would garner praise and excitement and not only match it, but exceed it.

Other times, Nintendo can be so tone-deaf and oblivious to what fans want in that it looks like they never even heard the letters 'PR' almost to the level of facepalming parody.

 

[CannonStreak]

Hmm didn't know that but it still ain't a great look for Mandy. It drives me up the wall even more than the vague style of speculation because it comes off as awfully arrogant. Mandy seems to be a bit extra from anything I've seen, with how confident they are, you'd assume they toured Nintendo and was given a playable demo of Crash. It just smells very fishy to me.

Chill, Woomy. I have my doubts on Mandy too, but they can't be as bad and suspicious as you make them out to be. Sure, the vague hints are unnecessary, maybe among other things, but I wouldn't say they are arrogant or come of as such. I wouldn't go that far just to say they are fishy either, or that fishy anyway, especially if someone doesn't trust them (won't name names here).

 

[Lord Woomy]

And Cloud shows that it doesn't have to be a big showcase date to have an earth shattering announcement. Crash can just as easily be at a Fall Direct as he could be at E3.

4 also gave their E3 time to Palutena, not Greninja/Charizard, Robin/Lucina or Shulk as chatacters people would think would get that major spotlight. So guessing character placement for hype reasons is not 100% successful.

While I do absolutely agree that not all hype things have to be shown off at E3 and vice versa. I think Nintendo's philosophy to revealing things has changed from Wii U to Switch. The general structure and frequency of directs has been changed and so has their philosophy to revealing things since 4. Nintendo has demonstrated with Ridley and Banjo that they generally like showing off hype things at E3 when possible but by no means is it an absolute (as the 8/8 direct showed us). So, generally, be prepared to have more hype things show up at E3 but also don't treat it as an absolute either.

Chill, Woomy. I have my doubts on Mandy too, but they can't be as bad and suspicious as you make them out to be. Sure, the vague hints are unnecessary, maybe among other things, but I wouldn't say they are arrogant or come of as such. I wouldn't go that far just to say they are fishy either, or that fishy anyway, especially if someone doesn't trust them (won't name names here).

Hey, all I can say is something about Mandy rubs me the wrong way real bad. Sorry if I get a bit too wound up about it but something has just felt off to me. Not to mention, I'm a bit adverse to the idea of more insiders running around seeing as how poorly these sorts of things usually go later down the line.

 

[CannonStreak]

While I do absolutely agree that not all hype things have to be shown off at E3 and vice versa. I think Nintendo's philosophy to revealing things has changed from Wii U to Switch. The general structure and frequency of directs has been changed and so has their philosophy to revealing things since 4. Nintendo has demonstrated with Ridley and Banjo that they generally like showing off hype things at E3 when possible but by no means is it an absolute (as the 8/8 direct showed us). So, generally, be prepared to have more hype things show up at E3 but also don't treat it as an absolute either.


Hey, all I can say is something about Mandy rubs me the wrong way real bad. Sorry if I get a bit too wound up about it but something has just felt off to me. Not to mention, I'm a bit adverse to the idea of more insiders running around seeing as how poorly these sorts of things usually go later down the line.

Understood. Still, a little easing up would be better.

A little, since it would probably not be so good of an idea to personally drop being against Mandy altogether.

I am only half expecting Mandy to be right. I was fully expecting them to be right, but time has passed, and that has dwindled.

Thank goodness for the news drought. Say, are you like this for many leakers out there?

 

[AdamBel731]

Gonna kill two things for you today, internet person who's name and pfp share two things I love in life. These are both arguments I've defeated with facts and logic before, and I would appreciate if people remember this much like how I did with CacoMallow being alive and well regardless of Doomguy's status so that I have to stop repeating it.

1. It's much more likely that the 2021 window is more for freedom and lack of an more thought out and realizable date. While it is completely possible that DLC can be spread out that long (just look at Mortal Kombat 11, the game that is mostly forgotten by everyone, including by EVO) it's not recommended to do so as having a steady stream of new content keeps players engaged as opposed to moving onto a new game and caring less about the new content (again, MK11 is a good example of this). When you add in how crazy they have been in terms of having characters and their content ready very quickly (my original theory that they were ahead of schedule because we were getting more DLC, proven correct) and how it's likely that they already have a lot of content coming in FP Vol 2 already done or 95% done (Sakurai himself said Fighter #6 is ready to go) it points to either having more wiggle room for MORE content that is already in the planning or semi-production stage (like a possible FP Vol 3 or just bonus characters and content with them that isn't tied to a pass) or more wiggle room in case they decide to do more content later rather than they just need more time, but it could entirely be possible that they just want more time to rest or need that much more time due to having an additional character...but that is much less likely due to the reasons I mentioned above. For a little more ammunition for the opposing side, leading with how all the characters in the first FP were clearly all finished before February 2020 and yet they waited to release the last one in January 2020 just before their deadline and that they could stick to the deadline regardless of the amount of content delivered.
2. I see in your predictions, you have Geno listed as a Premium Mii Costume and frankly, I'm tired of people pushing the narrative that this can happen. Even big name Geno fans like @papagenos are giving more thought to this than needed, so let me hopefully nip this in the bud for any Geno fans currently in speculation circles: Geno being a Premium Mii Costume has a lowest chance of happening in any event related to Geno, including that we get nothing new and we only have his Spirit and Icon. Yes, Geno being playable as a brand new character, his old costume returning instead, or getting nothing else in regards to him are all much more likely than getting a Premium Costume with a music track. Why? Because of Square's nature, Sakurai's intent, and Yoko's ties to Smash.
   1. Square Enix by nature is a company that is VERY protective of their IPs and more often than not offers very little bang for their buck. There are many signs of proof of this all over and a known fact. Nintendo already has permission to Geno's likeness which would likely include the old costume as if that costume were to return that is something they would take care of in advance. If Square owns the rights to SMRPG music that isn't owned by Nintendo or another composer outside of Yoko (which is entirely likely as Yoko worked for Square from between 1993 and 2002), what sense does it make for Square to make 75 cents on a costume that is no updated to look better than the last one AND comes with a music track when they could just make the same amount of money on the OLD costume and NO music track? They already are making a lot of money with Smash Ultimate and the Premium Costumes thus far are all from smaller developers who can use both the money and representation, but Square doesn't. In fact, they would make MORE money by Geno being a playable character, so if they were to negotiate for ANY changes, why a Premium Costume with music that makes less money than a full-blown character with a stage, a bit more music, a Classic Run and Spirit Board that would make them WAAAAAAY more money AND would put them in good terms of both more representation ("Daddy Sakurai loves me best!") and with the fans who have been dying for the character for years?
   2. Sakurai has the intent to include Geno and that intent has not changed as far as we know. There interview statements as well as statements in directs in which Sakurai wants to include more fan favorite picks, and when you look at the line-up we have already, not only do we have proof of this but also we are running low on low-time requests and Geno is one of them. There is also a statement in which Sakurai admitted that Geno would be great for Smash, which means Sakurai considers the character unique and fun, things that are important for character moving forward in Ultimate DLC. Sakurai has wanted to include the character as far back as Brawl but has been unable to, meaning that doing so would fulfill a long-time goal for both him and the fandom. Sakurai has admitted that there are too many similar characters, such as swordfighters as well as Fire Emblem representation, and Geno is far removed from all of those things. Sakurai admitted that he looks for games with a legacy of between at least to some degree in a recent article, and SMRPG lines up with that perfect as it is over 20 years old while still being loved and remembered and producing Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi in it's wake. As long as Sakurai's intent doesn't drastically change, it would make no sense for Sakurai to have his team go the extra mile for just a Premium Costume for Geno.
   3. Yoko Shimomura has done arrangements for Smash since Brawl and thus has a history with the music of the series. If Yoko herself owns the rights to all her SMRPG music that wasn't already owned by Nintendo or other composers, it would be that much easier to get SMRPG music into the game and thus it would make little sense to include only a single track with a Premium Costume when you could honestly just get the music into the base game or later on with the same costume, Geno as playable or just the music in general. Since this has not happened it leads me to believe that Square owns the rights to SMRPG music aside from Nintendo and other composers. In other words, either the music is super easy to include and thus it would make little sense to only include one SMRPG track and work with Square to have a Premium Costume because they could have most of the tracks without even talking with Square, or it's more difficult to get because they have to negotiate with Square in which case why would Square make less money for more content? So, regardless of who owns the music rights, it goes against the likelihood of Geno being a Premium Costume.

There are other things like how Geno's costume should have shown up with Hero yet is still missing, how Sakurai would have negotiated for that update already due to both Geno's likeness being in the base game and talking with Square about Dragon Quest so we should have seen the costume already, how the pattern thus far is to give indie characters the best they can by having a detailed costume and their most popular music track, and how the costume is free money for Square yet even with Nintendo obviously having rights Geno's likeness the costume hasn't returned with even a dump.

Basically, there is no factual evidence that Geno would come back as a Premium Costume and the only reason people are saying that is because...

A. They are a Geno hater and don't want him playable for various reasons so they spread this **** like it's Vegamite.
B. They have been doom and gloom fear-mongered into believing this could affect Geno when there is literally no evidence.

Remember guys, there is nothing that has come out recently that has hurt either Geno or CacoMallow. Everything for Geno is either positive or neutral, and don't let doubters, naysayers and haters tell you otherwise - not because of being a dreamer or an echo chamber, but because we have facts and logic and they are ignoring them in terms of how they FEEL.

Ah, it warms my heart to see my boy ForsakenM busting down illogical arguments. We both love doing that, huh? *virtual fist bump

Regarding this zoomer's opinions on the possibility of a Direct, I'm really just trying not to think about it. Seeing a supposed insider like Mandy be so confident is a little comforting I suppose, but I'm just trying to not let the Nintendo drought get to me. ...yep, totally cool over here. T-totally fine. I definitely don't need a Direct...

No siree.

*me becoming malnourished from lack of new Nintendo news

 

[CannonStreak]

Ah, it warms my heart to see my boy Forsaken busting down illogical arguments. We both love doing that, huh? *virtual fist bump

Regarding this zoomer's opinions on the possibility of a Direct, I'm really just trying not to think about it. Seeing a supposed insider like Mandy be so confident is a little comforting I suppose, but I'm just trying to not let the Nintendo drought get to me. ...yep, totally cool over here. T-totally fine. I definitely don't need a Direct...

No siree.

*me becoming malnourished from lack of new Nintendo news
View attachment 261779

I think I see what you mean. While it is comforting that Mandy is confident in this Direct happening, the very long news drought that has been happening could go on longer, meaning that the Direct could come at an even later time than this week.

That said, do you guys think tomorrow is when they'll possibly announce a Direct?

 

[Polarthief]

Regarding this zoomer's opinions on the possibility of a Direct, I'm really just trying not to think about it. Seeing a supposed insider like Mandy be so confident is a little comforting I suppose, but I'm just trying to not let the Nintendo drought get to me. ...yep, totally cool over here. T-totally fine. I definitely don't need a Direct...

No siree.

*me becoming malnourished from lack of new Nintendo news

This so reminded me of that old Spongebob episode when he first meets Sandy and he (obviously) needs water, but spiraling a bit more into madness.

I think I see what you mean. While it is comforting that Mandy is confident in this Direct happening, the very long news drought that has been happening could go on longer, meaning that the Direct could come at an even later time than this week.

That said, do you guys think tomorrow is when they'll possibly announce a Direct?

Assuming the direct is for sure this week, I would say tomorrow is the best day to announce it.

At worst, direct isn't this week and possibly isn't until the week before AC launches. At *absolute* worst, no news til E3. Based on the number of insiders talking about directs though, I super doubt either will happen. The latter *WILL NOT* happen assuming Nintendo keeps to their pattern of "announce holiday title in Q1 Direct, talk more about it during E3", which they have for all of 2017-2019, the entire Switch's life-cycle (too lazy to check pre-Switch, but this did in fact happen with Odyssey, Smash Ultimate, and Pokemon Gen 8).

 

[Deleted member]

And Cloud shows that it doesn't have to be a big showcase date to have an earth shattering announcement. Crash can just as easily be at a Fall Direct as he could be at E3.

4 also gave their E3 time to Palutena, not Greninja/Charizard, Robin/Lucina or Shulk as chatacters people would think would get that major spotlight. So guessing character placement for hype reasons is not 100% successful.

I forgot about that! Well in that case, I’ll be looking forward that Crash announced as 6, cacodemon hat, and Geno announced at 7!

 

[AdamBel731]

This so reminded me of that old Spongebob episode when he first meets Sandy and he (obviously) needs water, but spiraling a bit more into madness.

(I was going to reference that more originally, but I wanted to do something a lil' different. Didn't want to be too predictable, you see. Though I did leave that part of the quote in there for anyone who got it.)

 

[Polarthief]

I forgot about that! Well in that case, I’ll be looking forward that Crash announced as 6, cacodemon hat, and Geno announced at 7!

If we get a Cacodemon hat, I'm bumping Geno's chances up to 95% (from ~75-80%, whatever I said last time). Best case scenario, we get Geno for #6, but great case scenario, we don't but there's a Cacodemon hat.

The biggest thing for me is still the not one but two songs being copyright takedowned by Nintendo. The fact that it was 2 and not 1 is what's big.

(I was going to reference that more originally, but I wanted to do something a lil' different. Didn't want to be too predictable, you see. Though I did leave that part of the quote in there for anyone who got it.)

Yeah that's gotta be it. What's nuts is I haven't thought of, seen, or heard the clip in so long that I'm surprised I still remembered it.

 

[Lord Woomy]

Anyway, enough about Mandy for now. I would like to demonstrate how much of an easy out it is for someone to claim Geno will be a premium costume.
clears throat
"Music take downs? Obviously for the upgraded Mii Costume!"

"Mii Costume not back with Hero? Obviously taking time to upgrade his Mii Costume!"

"Accurate Mii List with other SMRPG costumes listed but no Geno? He's not listed because he's a premium costume!"

"Realistic looking leak with a Mallow Mii Hat? Obviously, it will come with Geno's premium costume! Like how Sans and Cuphead came with a Kris and Mugman hat respectively!"

"Insiders hearing his name? Of course they're just mistaking his costume for a full fighter!"

 

[CannonStreak]

Anyway, enough about Mandy for now. I would like to demonstrate how much of an easy out it is for someone to claim Geno will be a premium costume.
clears throat
"Music take downs? Obviously for the upgraded Mii Costume!"

"Mii Costume not back with Hero? Obviously taking time to upgrade his Mii Costume!"

"Accurate Mii List with other SMRPG costumes listed but no Geno? He's not listed because he's a premium costume!"

"Realistic looking leak with a Mallow Mii Hat? Obviously, it will come with Geno's premium costume! Like how Sans and Cuphead came with a Kris and Mugman hat respectively!"

"Insiders hearing his name? Of course they're just mistaking his costume for a full fighter!"

Oh brother! Those assuming fools think they know it all, know the future and know what Nintendo has planned, even though they don't, do they?

 

[RetrogamerMax]

That's easy: Gex

Gex isn't anywhere near the top of my wanted list, but I think he would be a really cool character if by some miracle he got in. But he is even more of a pipedream than Geno because he is owned by Square-Enix.

 

[Fatmanonice]

As a recap, my current predictions are: Waluigi, Geno, Crash, Lloyd, Dante, Master Chief and maaaaaaaaaybe a bonus Iwata tribute like Lolo. As I said in my last post, I've come to these conclusions based on things I've heard since November 2018 and learning different things about insider speculation from the different characters in the Fighter's Pass.

Plant- Even if information sounds weird or stupid, it's sometimes good to note anyways. This happened both in Ultimate and Smash 4. A number of people heard Plant but dismissed it for being too weird. In Smash 4, Bowser Jr and Duck Hunt were actually leaked before E3 2014 via a 4chan post. It, however, described Bowser Jr as being in a go-kart so people buried it until it technically came true.

Joker- Nintendo will even lie to its own employees to keep certain characters secret. As you all know, a Smash announcement at the 2018 VGAs swerved most people because Nintendo proactively put out misinformation on what they were going to announce.

Hero- Just because info is old, doesn't mean it's not useful. I fell for this mistake here. The Gematsu leak for Smash 4 wound up being wrong on a couple of things because the info was outdated and, the longer time went on without a Hero reveal, the more I believed it was false. If anything, the longer something goes without being totally debunked, usually the better.

Banjo- For bigger announcements, most people can't keep their mouths shut. I refer to them as dog whistles and there were a ton of them for Banjo leading up to E3 2019. I knew about Banjo by early April but the closer the date got the more people who came out of the woodwork to not so subtly hint that they knew Banjo was coming too.

Terry- Sometimes the only way things get out is if someone hardcore ****s up. Terry was two days away from going unleaked and Nintendo dropped the soap. Sometimes we just get really, really lucky.

Byleth- Don't disregard potential evidence, even if you're not super thrilled about the implied outcome. I knew about the Three Houses stage and spirit board on Christmas Eve thanks to one of my guys but didn't put two and two together. Up the upside, he didn't either but we both botched it thanks to our own bias. We both hard believed "only third party" for the Fighter's Pass and even I deduced the fantasy RPG swordsman part back in September. Ironically, even back in the summer, I outright said that if Three Houses was getting a rep, it would be Byleth because they always pick the lead for playable spots but, again, I totally dismissed not only first party and promotional characters because I personally hadn't heard them.

Going through all this, it's pretty easy to deduce who applies to what and why. For example, I have absolutely no attachment to Dante (I want Phoenix), Master Chief (FPS is by far my least favorite genre and never had an Xbox of any kind), or Crash but I'm going with them anyways because of what I outlined here.

 

[Polarthief]

Crazy idea: Phoenix is DLC 6 because of the DL-6 incident sounding so incredibly similar. Edgeworth as an alt to make it make more sense. Guys I cracked the code.

For anyone who hasn't played Ace Attorney (the first one), DL-6 is the name of a case in the game and it ties to Edgeworth's entire being. You also kinda solve it in the 4th case of the game. Don't wanna give spoilers and stuff since the AA series is very story-driven; just know it's important to Edgeworth.

That said I don't think Phoenix is a great pick, like Crash, to kick off FP2. I'd be much happier about it though since I actually do like Phoenix/AA and would love to see him (& co) in Smash (especially with other characters as alts; you could stick most of them in here regardless if it's a solo or Rosa&Luma-style character!).

 

[Lord Woomy]

I'm still betting on Geno to be 6, whether or not my theory of him being an incorporated individual fighter has any truth to it or not, I still do think that he'd be a good way to start off the pass (especially after Byleth). 6 seems to be almost as mysterious as 5 was, which makes me think we're dealing with a company that's good at keeping things (Like Square and Nintendo). Not to mention, it'd be perfect for him to come with SMRPG releasing on Switch online. I will die on the Geno hill as long as he still has a shot.

 

[Polarthief]

I'm still betting on Geno to be 6, whether or not my theory of him being an incorporated individual fighter has any truth to it or not, I still do think that he'd be a good way to start off the pass (especially after Byleth). 6 seems to be almost as mysterious as 5 was, which makes me think we're dealing with a company that's good at keeping things (Like Square and Nintendo). Not to mention, it'd be perfect for him to come with SMRPG releasing on Switch online. I will die on the Geno hill as long as he still has a shot.

I don't think he'll be #6, but I'm not completely counting it out. He would be a good character to kick off FP2, especially since that breaks the Spirits Deconfirm fanrule, and I'd definitely be thrilled to get him so soon, especially if he comes with SMRPG on NSO since that's been another long-time dream for me to have it officially portable.

The thing is, I don't know who will be #6. Mandy could totally be right, but I feel like if it was Crash, we'd hear sooooooooooo many more insiders saying the same thing (since Activision is notorious for leaks).

 

[MisterMike]

I guess since people are doing this, I too will also recount my reaction to each newcomer.

Spoiler: Spoiler'd for size

• Perfectly satisfied. Didn't doubt for a moment that they'd be in the next Smash game.
• Not much of a big Daisy fan, but overall very happy to see her here.
• Shocked and suprised. Very happy.

For these next 5, I had the sense to record my reaction to them and upload to YouTube, so you can hear me awkwardly scream about their reveals for yourself.

Spoiler: Links to my August 8th Direct reaction

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiab9Nkxp1Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTu1yJl2gvo

• Very happy to see, especially with his classic design. As much as I like Death Note, you cannot tell me that that design is Simon Belmont.
• A suprise, to be sure, but a welcome one.
• Probably the only Fire Emblem character outside of Roy who I was excited to see join Smash.
• Pretty great as well, very happy to see.
• Pure happiness.

• Easily the most disappointing reveal for me. Instantly knew it was for Smash when the trailer started, too much build up, don't particularly care about the character.
• Great to see, though I was kind of disappoint given... y'know.
• Disappointed, though it didn't take long to (no pun intended) warm up to them.
• Perplexed and somewhat disappointed, though I've since gotten over it.
• Not a character I particularly wanted, but he wasn't a bad choice and I knew other people would be really excited to see him.

Spoiler: Links to my Hero and Banjo reactions

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngCiaUSMCqc

• "Yep, there's Erdrick." Don't particularly care about Dragon Quest, and was disappointed that they weren't Banjo, but overall I didn't resent them getting in at all.
• I screamed, I clapped, I had a moment of self reflection on my consumerist attitude. Easily one of the best new additions to the game. This video I made in celebration speaks volumes on how excited I was to see them in Smash. ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC7lTmmeoWk )

• Due to Nintendo accidentally leaking him, I wasn't suprised to see him at all, but I liked his reveal.
• Completely taken aback in the best way. ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldohVZKA8AA )
• [MODS ADD BYLETH'S STOCK ICON FFS] Disappointed, tired, knew there would be some pretty salty sardines out there over this. Don't hate the character, just... well, disappointed.
• 
  Pleasantly suprised.

Has the caco/mallow video ever been debunked? I havent been keeping up with smash DLC speculation.

Not yet, but there have been plenty of arguments made to try and debunk it. Classic arguments such as...

1. Well, it could be faked, though. (Always a possibility, but can't currently be proven, so it's just begging the question.)
2. People have been able to make Mii Costume Mods, so it's highly possible it was faked. (Same as above. Also, we've yet to see an accurate replication of what we see in the videos and image.)
3. If the guy who "leaked" this was able to get these hats, why didn't he leak anything more than that? Why not leak a new character, or a new stage, or any other Mii Costumes? (Assuming this is a leak, we have no idea how they even managed to get these videos and images or what situation they were in. Perhaps this was all they were able to get, or perhaps this was all they knew was coming. After all, you can't leaks things you don't have or don't know are coming. Also, that could be said for any potential leak, so it's just begging the question.)
4. The image has Ken in it doing a thumbs-up, just like in the Ken Leak. The person behind is trying to make it look more legit by referencing an actual leak, which means that it's fake. (Perhaps, but it's far from the only explaination. It could also just be a coincidence, or maybe it's the same guy using that as his calling card, or maybe it's a completely different person adopting that gesture as a way to signal to people that it's legit. We have no way to prove anything one way or the other, so it's a moot point.)
5. The unmoving timer is set to 2:30, just like the Ken Leak, which would make you think that it's a legit leak from a dev build, but it's displayed as 2:30 rather than 02:30 like in the Ken Leak. This discrepancy means that this is fake. (While it's true that there is an extra 0 that is missing compared to the Ken Leak, it's not a flub in the process of potentially faking this. Small details, such as there being an extra zero in front of times less than ten minutes, only existed in eariler builds of Ultimate and has since been removed. Proof of this can be seen during the Hero presentation, where Sakurai is using a development build of the game. The extra 0 seen in the Ken Leak is no longer there, meaning it was only there during production of the game, and was subsequently removed before it's retail release.)
6. The hats weren't revealed with Byleth, so they're fake. (Leaks can still be true even if the timing was off. For example, Vergeben was right about there being a SquareEnix character "Erdrick", but he was wrong in saying that it'd be the first DLC character.)
7. The hats were "leaked" back on November 3rd 2019, and it's now 3+ months since then and we haven't seen them yet. Hats are easy to make, so they must be made very shortly before a fighter's release, which means this is fake. (Unless outwardly stated, leaks don't have a "best by" date. Also, that's not how game development works. Content is made well in advance, as such it's more likely that all of the Mii Fighter costumes/hats were made in bulk, or whenever they could be made, which would logically be as soon as possible. As such, it's entirely possible that these hats were made many months ago in preparation for these upcoming DLC fighters.
8. There was an interview with one of the head Bethesda guys that disconfirmed Doomguy, so this is fake. (First off, Doomguy wasn't completely disconfirmed, though I will admit this is a pretty substantial blow to his chances. Secondly, and more importantly, nowhere in this interview did they mention that Nintendo rejected/didn't follow up on anything other than Doomguy as a fighter. It's entirely possible that we could still get DOOM content (such as costumes or spirits) in the future without a fighter to come alongside them. I mean, it's happened with Ubisoft getting costumes alongside Byleth without them getting a fighter, and there was a Spirit Event for the Kunio/River City series without them getting a fighter.)
9. If this were even a real leak, Nintendo would've gone and taken down anything about them. (Not necessarily. They didn't do that with videos talking about the Ken Leak, after all.)

Spoiler: As an aside regarding Point 3...

Assuming this is a real leak, I think these two costumes being leaked may have been more deliberate than it appears on the surface. When you're a leaker, you're always at risk of getting caught and subsequently fired. This is doubly true if you're leaking high profile releases or important content in general such as a DLC fighter for Smash. As such, it's best to keep as low a profile as you possibly can, lest you find yourself on the receiving end of a legal prostate exam courtesy of Nintendo.

So going back to Our Guy, he has info he really wants to get out there, but he can't just leak it outright because knows damn well what would happen to him and his career if he were to be caught leak one of the DLC fighters, and he just doesn't want to deal with that kind of stuff. But what if... he instead leaked something else in order to disguise what he was actually leaking? Ho ho ho... delighfully devilish, Our Guy! So he goes and does just that: he leaks a Mallow and Cacodemon hat and nothing else.

This seems very ho-hum to most. I mean, they're just some dumb hats, literally the least exciting thing for most people both casual and hardcore. But while they look rather simple on the surface, the implications of their existence will get people's noggins joggin' something fierce. "Why is there only a Mallow hat? WHERE THE **** IS THE GENO COSTUME?!" Without directly showing it, you've already told people what you wanted to tell them. Of course, you may be wondering "Well, iff this is real, then why didn't Nintendo take action to supress this like they did with Sword & Shield leaks or other Smash leaks in the past?". Well let me ask you point blank: What could Nintendo do about it?

Nintendo's goal in situations like this is not only to prevent leaks, but to also minimize the damage those leaks cause them as much as possible. Whether real or fake, them responding to this publically is a terrible idea.

• If this is real, and they were to strike it down anywhere it popped up, they'd basically be confirming that it was a legit leak, because why else would they be taking it down so intently?
• If this is fake, and they were to strike it down anywhere it popped up, they'd still lead people into believing it was real, thus setting people's expectations in ways that they would rather not, sort of like what happened with the Grinch Hoax only by their own hand.

Coversely, them just ignoring this is easily the best course of action they could take.

• Unlike the ESRB Leak or Ultimate being leaked two weeks before it's release, it has just enough plasuable deniability to be able to ignore it because... well, it's just a couple of dumb hats, who cares? It's not like it couldn't be handwaved away as a fake. So what if a few random conspiracy nuts on some random Smash-centric image board catch on? Most people don't care, so it's no big deal.
• Regardless if it's real or fake, it'll avoid causing the Streisand Effect, making people eventually stop talking about it, which is what they want. If it's real, then everyone will only realize it was an actual leak after the fact, at which point it won't matter. This is basically what happened with the Ken Leak. If it's fake, nobody will be getting their hopes up over nothing.

So it'd make a ton of sense in a weird way for Our Guy to do this: It allows him to leak sensitive information for Smash whilst also having just enough plausable deniability to not attract too much attention and seriously jeopardize his livelihood, because while we're so used to leakers or insiders having a cult of personality, leaking information, at it's core, isn't about being flashy, it's about sending a message.

I don't expect anyone to agree with this theory of mine, because it is rather farfetch'd and silly given he's already done quite a lot to ensure sure this doesn't come back on him, such as posting this stuff anonymously to 4chan and not acting like an attention *****, but it's certainly fun to think about. And if you don't think so... well, I had fun with it at least.

Given the nature of what we're dealing with, there's currently no way to definitively prove or disprove it. Personally I'm leaning more on it being real due to it looking pretty legit, as well as other details and potential leaks that support the idea that we'll be getting other SMRPG content, up to and including Geno getting in as a fighter.

Gonna kill two things for you today, internet person who's name and pfp share two things I love in life. These are both arguments I've defeated with facts and logic before, and I would appreciate if people remember this much like how I did with CacoMallow being alive and well regardless of Doomguy's status so that I have to stop repeating it.

1. It's much more likely that the 2021 window is more for freedom and lack of an more thought out and realizable date. While it is completely possible that DLC can be spread out that long (just look at Mortal Kombat 11, the game that is mostly forgotten by everyone, including by EVO) it's not recommended to do so as having a steady stream of new content keeps players engaged as opposed to moving onto a new game and caring less about the new content (again, MK11 is a good example of this). When you add in how crazy they have been in terms of having characters and their content ready very quickly (my original theory that they were ahead of schedule because we were getting more DLC, proven correct) and how it's likely that they already have a lot of content coming in FP Vol 2 already done or 95% done (Sakurai himself said Fighter #6 is ready to go) it points to either having more wiggle room for MORE content that is already in the planning or semi-production stage (like a possible FP Vol 3 or just bonus characters and content with them that isn't tied to a pass) or more wiggle room in case they decide to do more content later rather than they just need more time, but it could entirely be possible that they just want more time to rest or need that much more time due to having an additional character...but that is much less likely due to the reasons I mentioned above. For a little more ammunition for the opposing side, leading with how all the characters in the first FP were clearly all finished before February 2020 and yet they waited to release the last one in January 2020 just before their deadline and that they could stick to the deadline regardless of the amount of content delivered.
2. I see in your predictions, you have Geno listed as a Premium Mii Costume and frankly, I'm tired of people pushing the narrative that this can happen. Even big name Geno fans like @papagenos are giving more thought to this than needed, so let me hopefully nip this in the bud for any Geno fans currently in speculation circles: Geno being a Premium Mii Costume has a lowest chance of happening in any event related to Geno, including that we get nothing new and we only have his Spirit and Icon. Yes, Geno being playable as a brand new character, his old costume returning instead, or getting nothing else in regards to him are all much more likely than getting a Premium Costume with a music track. Why? Because of Square's nature, Sakurai's intent, and Yoko's ties to Smash.
   1. Square Enix by nature is a company that is VERY protective of their IPs and more often than not offers very little bang for their buck. There are many signs of proof of this all over and a known fact. Nintendo already has permission to Geno's likeness which would likely include the old costume as if that costume were to return that is something they would take care of in advance. If Square owns the rights to SMRPG music that isn't owned by Nintendo or another composer outside of Yoko (which is entirely likely as Yoko worked for Square from between 1993 and 2002), what sense does it make for Square to make 75 cents on a costume that is no updated to look better than the last one AND comes with a music track when they could just make the same amount of money on the OLD costume and NO music track? They already are making a lot of money with Smash Ultimate and the Premium Costumes thus far are all from smaller developers who can use both the money and representation, but Square doesn't. In fact, they would make MORE money by Geno being a playable character, so if they were to negotiate for ANY changes, why a Premium Costume with music that makes less money than a full-blown character with a stage, a bit more music, a Classic Run and Spirit Board that would make them WAAAAAAY more money AND would put them in good terms of both more representation ("Daddy Sakurai loves me best!") and with the fans who have been dying for the character for years?
   2. Sakurai has the intent to include Geno and that intent has not changed as far as we know. There interview statements as well as statements in directs in which Sakurai wants to include more fan favorite picks, and when you look at the line-up we have already, not only do we have proof of this but also we are running low on low-time requests and Geno is one of them. There is also a statement in which Sakurai admitted that Geno would be great for Smash, which means Sakurai considers the character unique and fun, things that are important for character moving forward in Ultimate DLC. Sakurai has wanted to include the character as far back as Brawl but has been unable to, meaning that doing so would fulfill a long-time goal for both him and the fandom. Sakurai has admitted that there are too many similar characters, such as swordfighters as well as Fire Emblem representation, and Geno is far removed from all of those things. Sakurai admitted that he looks for games with a legacy of between at least to some degree in a recent article, and SMRPG lines up with that perfect as it is over 20 years old while still being loved and remembered and producing Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi in it's wake. As long as Sakurai's intent doesn't drastically change, it would make no sense for Sakurai to have his team go the extra mile for just a Premium Costume for Geno.
   3. Yoko Shimomura has done arrangements for Smash since Brawl and thus has a history with the music of the series. If Yoko herself owns the rights to all her SMRPG music that wasn't already owned by Nintendo or other composers, it would be that much easier to get SMRPG music into the game and thus it would make little sense to include only a single track with a Premium Costume when you could honestly just get the music into the base game or later on with the same costume, Geno as playable or just the music in general. Since this has not happened it leads me to believe that Square owns the rights to SMRPG music aside from Nintendo and other composers. In other words, either the music is super easy to include and thus it would make little sense to only include one SMRPG track and work with Square to have a Premium Costume because they could have most of the tracks without even talking with Square, or it's more difficult to get because they have to negotiate with Square in which case why would Square make less money for more content? So, regardless of who owns the music rights, it goes against the likelihood of Geno being a Premium Costume.

There are other things like how Geno's costume should have shown up with Hero yet is still missing, how Sakurai would have negotiated for that update already due to both Geno's likeness being in the base game and talking with Square about Dragon Quest so we should have seen the costume already, how the pattern thus far is to give indie characters the best they can by having a detailed costume and their most popular music track, and how the costume is free money for Square yet even with Nintendo obviously having rights Geno's likeness the costume hasn't returned with even a dump.

Basically, there is no factual evidence that Geno would come back as a Premium Costume and the only reason people are saying that is because...

A. They are a Geno hater and don't want him playable for various reasons so they spread this **** like it's Vegamite.
B. They have been doom and gloom fear-mongered into believing this could affect Geno when there is literally no evidence.

Remember guys, there is nothing that has come out recently that has hurt either Geno or CacoMallow. Everything for Geno is either positive or neutral, and don't let doubters, naysayers and haters tell you otherwise - not because of being a dreamer or an echo chamber, but because we have facts and logic and they are ignoring them in terms of how they FEEL.

Good post, but you really should've put these walls of text behind spoilers and broken them up into smaller paragraphs. Makes it a lot easier to read.

Crazy idea: Phoenix is DLC 6 because of the DL-6 incident sounding so incredibly similar. Edgeworth as an alt to make it make more sense. Guys I cracked the code.

For anyone who hasn't played Ace Attorney (the first one), DL-6 is the name of a case in the game and it ties to Edgeworth's entire being. You also kinda solve it in the 4th case of the game. Don't wanna give spoilers and stuff since the AA series is very story-driven; just know it's important to Edgeworth.

That said I don't think Phoenix is a great pick, like Crash, to kick off FP2. I'd be much happier about it though since I actually do like Phoenix/AA and would love to see him (& co) in Smash (especially with other characters as alts; you could stick most of them in here regardless if it's a solo or Rosa&Luma-style character!).

 

[Polarthief]

Lol, it's absolutely a half-joke, but every time I say "DLC 6" I hear me saying "DL-6" instead. It's impossible to not hear (or rather, "see" since we're typing), I swear.

I said it before though, it would feel weird to have regular human civilians with no powers or weapons at their disposal, but obviously not impossible since MvC already has Wright (and Maya) in it. It'd also be a +1 for Capcom reps, which I think Capcom definitely deserves another, currently at 2+1 Echo.

 

[Lord Woomy]

1. The unmoving timer is set to 2:30, just like the Ken Leak, which would make you think that it's a legit leak from a dev build, but it's displayed as 2:30 rather than 02:30 like in the Ken Leak. This discrepancy means that this is fake. (While it's true that there is an extra 0 that is missing compared to the Ken Leak, it's not a flub in the process of potentially faking this. Small details, such as there being an extra zero in front of times less than ten minutes, only existed in eariler builds of Ultimate and has since been removed. Proof of this can be seen during the Hero presentation, where Sakurai is using a development build of the game. The extra 0 seen in the Ken Leak is no longer there, meaning it was only there during production of the game, and was subsequently removed before it's retail release.)

Honestly, the differences in the timers makes me more likely to think it's real. Harkening back to the ESRB leak, one of the main reasons it was real at first was just how strange and unbelievable it was and no faker in their right mind would ever say something like Dr Mario is coming back but not Mewtwo (yet). If this was a fake leak that truly tried to emulate the Ken leak as closely as they possibly could, why the hell didn't they notice they messed up on the timer? Why not make it 1:1 so people don't get suspicious? You've already managed to change the timer itself somehow, so why did they make it different if it was fake? It's small discrepancies like that that remind me of ESRB and makes me think we may have something legit on our hands.

 

[Houndstooth]

As a recap, my current predictions are: Waluigi, Geno, Crash, Lloyd, Dante, Master Chief and maaaaaaaaaybe a bonus Iwata tribute like Lolo. As I said in my last post, I've come to these conclusions based on things I've heard since November 2018 and learning different things about insider speculation from the different characters in the Fighter's Pass.

Plant- Even if information sounds weird or stupid, it's sometimes good to note anyways. This happened both in Ultimate and Smash 4. A number of people heard Plant but dismissed it for being too weird. In Smash 4, Bowser Jr and Duck Hunt were actually leaked before E3 2014 via a 4chan post. It, however, described Bowser Jr as being in a go-kart so people buried it until it technically came true.

Joker- Nintendo will even lie to its own employees to keep certain characters secret. As you all know, a Smash announcement at the 2018 VGAs swerved most people because Nintendo proactively put out misinformation on what they were going to announce.

Hero- Just because info is old, doesn't mean it's not useful. I fell for this mistake here. The Gematsu leak for Smash 4 wound up being wrong on a couple of things because the info was outdated and, the longer time went on without a Hero reveal, the more I believed it was false. If anything, the longer something goes without being totally debunked, usually the better.

Banjo- For bigger announcements, most people can't keep their mouths shut. I refer to them as dog whistles and there were a ton of them for Banjo leading up to E3 2019. I knew about Banjo by early April but the closer the date got the more people who came out of the woodwork to not so subtly hint that they knew Banjo was coming too.

Terry- Sometimes the only way things get out is if someone hardcore ****s up. Terry was two days away from going unleaked and Nintendo dropped the soap. Sometimes we just get really, really lucky.

Byleth- Don't disregard potential evidence, even if you're not super thrilled about the implied outcome. I knew about the Three Houses stage and spirit board on Christmas Eve thanks to one of my guys but didn't put two and two together. Up the upside, he didn't either but we both botched it thanks to our own bias. We both hard believed "only third party" for the Fighter's Pass and even I deduced the fantasy RPG swordsman part back in September. Ironically, even back in the summer, I outright said that if Three Houses was getting a rep, it would be Byleth because they always pick the lead for playable spots but, again, I totally dismissed not only first party and promotional characters because I personally hadn't heard them.

Going through all this, it's pretty easy to deduce who applies to what and why. For example, I have absolutely no attachment to Dante (I want Phoenix), Master Chief (FPS is by far my least favorite genre and never had an Xbox of any kind), or Crash but I'm going with them anyways because of what I outlined here.

I like seeing the detail here. With your six being Waluigi, Geno, Crash, Lloyd, Dante, Master Chief, and (possibly) one more, do you mind to go through them in the same sort of way? Obviously, not with the "here's how I speculate" but what you have seen as evidence for each. Things proven true, things proven false, evidences, etc. I would really like to see your opinion on why you are speculating these six(seven).

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Also, I feel like if Geno WAS included, he would be the last one shown, as he is *THE* last one that fans have been rabidly requesting for a long time.
It was always King K Rool, Ridley, and Geno. Only Geno waits in the wings.

Some other characters have REALLY picked up movement, like Shantae, Elma, etc, but some other fan support has died, like Bandana Dee.

First off: K. Rool didn't become popular until Diddy got in back in Brawl. After that, K. Rool popularity started to skyrocketed.

Second off: You forgot Banjo & Kazooie who were among the most highly characters during the 64, Melee, and Smash Ballot Smash 4 days.

Finally: Bandana Dee has still been dominanting in online polls. Recent ones? I'm not entirely sure. Last poll I checked was Source Gaming's poll before E3 of 2019 Bandana Dee placed 2nd on that poll while Banjo & Kazooie placed 1st. Still don't underestimate the power of Dee.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

But what if... he instead leaked something else in order to disguise what he was actually leaking? Ho ho ho... delighfully devilish, Our Guy! So he goes and does just that: he leaks a Mallow and Cacodemon hat and nothing else.

Our Guy: *walks out of a room where playable Geno and Doom Slayer DLC are being developed* Well, that was wonderful. Good time was had by all, I'm pooped.
Smash fans: Yes, I should be- GOOD LORD, WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THERE?!
Our Guy: Cacodemon and Mallow costumes.
Smash fans: Eh... Cacodemon and Mallow costumes?! At this time year, at this time of day, in this part of Nintendo, localized entirely within Super Smash Bros. Ultimate?!
Our Guy: Yes!
Smash fans: ... may I see it?
Our Guy: ... no.

 

[Deleted member]

Honestly, the differences in the timers makes me more likely to think it's real. Harkening back to the ESRB leak, one of the main reasons it was real at first was just how strange and unbelievable it was and no faker in their right mind would ever say something like Dr Mario is coming back but not Mewtwo (yet). If this was a fake leak that truly tried to emulate the Ken leak as closely as they possibly could, why the hell didn't they notice they messed up on the timer? Why not make it 1:1 so people don't get suspicious? You've already managed to change the timer itself somehow, so why did they make it different if it was fake? It's small discrepancies like that that remind me of ESRB and makes me think we may have something legit on our hands.

I probably haven't mentioned it here, but I believe that if Mallowdemon is fake, the entire thing was done in post production - that is to say that the Mallow and Cacodemon hats were added onto likely hatless Mii Fighters frame by frame for the video. While the amount of effort involved in that seems astronomical, given the right tools, it would only be as difficult as keeping perspective and shading done properly, and is likely easier than actually modding the game with these hats if the modding community's reaction to it is any indication. It's important not to fall into a Grinch leak trap, in which we tell ourselves "no one would go through this much effort", especially if we let ourselves be blinded to how little effort may have been involved. I mention post production because a user on Twitter demonstrated that they could add in a frozen timer to a recording in post, but obviously no one can access the developer tools in the retail version of the game - and I think it's important to echo this sentiment: if you're going to go through the weeks long effort of pretending these hats exist, adding them in slight variations for thousands of frames, why would you screw the pooch on the easy part? It's not totally non-feasible, because granted, here we are giving a faker too much credit and covering for his mistake, but when your goal was to echo the real leak, it would be outlandish to leave out a simplistic feature.

Honestly, though, why argue that the timer is wrong and not care that the diagnostics aren't there? There's obviously different developer modes that show all sorts of things like frame rate and the additional 0 in the timer for matches that run longer than 9:59.

 

[Fatmanonice]

The thing is, I don't know who will be #6. Mandy could totally be right, but I feel like if it was Crash, we'd hear sooooooooooo many more insiders saying the same thing (since Activision is notorious for leaks).

This is my thought exactly. Knowing about Banjo early was great because it was such a big secret but also terrible for the same reason. Then June rolls around and it seemed like every insider knew and it was ****in' annoying because waaaaaaaaaaay too many people were teasing it. Meanwhile, in the Dome of Ethics ™, I didn't want to spoil it because it was such a big deal for obvious reasons so the road to E3 2019 was both exciting and irritating because "oh boy! More and more people are backing me up" but also "even ****in' retailers are now being cheeky about it..." Based on this, I think it's going to happen again with Crash and I'm going to once again be that guy that hard glares and groans at every Crash pun that pops up on Twitter in a few months.

 

[Franco Geno]

Geno`s about to Crash into E3 and interrupt everything with his amazing reveal

 

[RetrogamerMax]

As a recap, my current predictions are: Waluigi, Geno, Crash, Lloyd, Dante, Master Chief and maaaaaaaaaybe a bonus Iwata tribute like Lolo. As I said in my last post, I've come to these conclusions based on things I've heard since November 2018 and learning different things about insider speculation from the different characters in the Fighter's Pass.

Plant- Even if information sounds weird or stupid, it's sometimes good to note anyways. This happened both in Ultimate and Smash 4. A number of people heard Plant but dismissed it for being too weird. In Smash 4, Bowser Jr and Duck Hunt were actually leaked before E3 2014 via a 4chan post. It, however, described Bowser Jr as being in a go-kart so people buried it until it technically came true.

Joker- Nintendo will even lie to its own employees to keep certain characters secret. As you all know, a Smash announcement at the 2018 VGAs swerved most people because Nintendo proactively put out misinformation on what they were going to announce.

Hero- Just because info is old, doesn't mean it's not useful. I fell for this mistake here. The Gematsu leak for Smash 4 wound up being wrong on a couple of things because the info was outdated and, the longer time went on without a Hero reveal, the more I believed it was false. If anything, the longer something goes without being totally debunked, usually the better.

Banjo- For bigger announcements, most people can't keep their mouths shut. I refer to them as dog whistles and there were a ton of them for Banjo leading up to E3 2019. I knew about Banjo by early April but the closer the date got the more people who came out of the woodwork to not so subtly hint that they knew Banjo was coming too.

Terry- Sometimes the only way things get out is if someone hardcore ****s up. Terry was two days away from going unleaked and Nintendo dropped the soap. Sometimes we just get really, really lucky.

Byleth- Don't disregard potential evidence, even if you're not super thrilled about the implied outcome. I knew about the Three Houses stage and spirit board on Christmas Eve thanks to one of my guys but didn't put two and two together. Up the upside, he didn't either but we both botched it thanks to our own bias. We both hard believed "only third party" for the Fighter's Pass and even I deduced the fantasy RPG swordsman part back in September. Ironically, even back in the summer, I outright said that if Three Houses was getting a rep, it would be Byleth because they always pick the lead for playable spots but, again, I totally dismissed not only first party and promotional characters because I personally hadn't heard them.

Going through all this, it's pretty easy to deduce who applies to what and why. For example, I have absolutely no attachment to Dante (I want Phoenix), Master Chief (FPS is by far my least favorite genre and never had an Xbox of any kind), or Crash but I'm going with them anyways because of what I outlined here.

Fatmanonice I just thought, what is the possibility that Nintendo is hardcore leak baiting these characters to all these leakers into thinking it's them?

 

[Fatmanonice]

Fatmanonice I just thought, what is the possibility that Nintendo is hardcore leak baiting these characters to all these leakers into thinking it's them?

Crash and Dante are the only two that most people agree with me on of the seven. Leakbait is done with characters from the same company so the argument here would be Crash is for another Activision/Blizzard character and Dante for Capcom. Again, we've established that Capcom and Activision both suck at keeping secrets and Kamiya/Capcom have both expressed interest in Dante in Smash leading me to believe neither is leakbait.

I like seeing the detail here. With your six being Waluigi, Geno, Crash, Lloyd, Dante, Master Chief, and (possibly) one more, do you mind to go through them in the same sort of way? Obviously, not with the "here's how I speculate" but what you have seen as evidence for each. Things proven true, things proven false, evidences, etc. I would really like to see your opinion on why you are speculating these six(seven).

I mean... I wrote a 15 page essay for Geno... I could probably do something similar for most of the others if I was genuinely motivated, especially Lloyd, Dante, and Waluigi. It's one of those things where I zone out because I've been keeping mental tabs on this stuff for over a year so covering it all in a post would, uh, be pretty hard. Depending on how this week goes, I'll consider doing big ass essays for some of the others before E3.

 

[egaddmario]

As a recap, my current predictions are: Waluigi, Geno, Crash, Lloyd, Dante, Master Chief and maaaaaaaaaybe a bonus Iwata tribute like Lolo. As I said in my last post, I've come to these conclusions based on things I've heard since November 2018 and learning different things about insider speculation from the different characters in the Fighter's Pass.

Plant- Even if information sounds weird or stupid, it's sometimes good to note anyways. This happened both in Ultimate and Smash 4. A number of people heard Plant but dismissed it for being too weird. In Smash 4, Bowser Jr and Duck Hunt were actually leaked before E3 2014 via a 4chan post. It, however, described Bowser Jr as being in a go-kart so people buried it until it technically came true.

Joker- Nintendo will even lie to its own employees to keep certain characters secret. As you all know, a Smash announcement at the 2018 VGAs swerved most people because Nintendo proactively put out misinformation on what they were going to announce.

Hero- Just because info is old, doesn't mean it's not useful. I fell for this mistake here. The Gematsu leak for Smash 4 wound up being wrong on a couple of things because the info was outdated and, the longer time went on without a Hero reveal, the more I believed it was false. If anything, the longer something goes without being totally debunked, usually the better.

Banjo- For bigger announcements, most people can't keep their mouths shut. I refer to them as dog whistles and there were a ton of them for Banjo leading up to E3 2019. I knew about Banjo by early April but the closer the date got the more people who came out of the woodwork to not so subtly hint that they knew Banjo was coming too.

Terry- Sometimes the only way things get out is if someone hardcore ****s up. Terry was two days away from going unleaked and Nintendo dropped the soap. Sometimes we just get really, really lucky.

Byleth- Don't disregard potential evidence, even if you're not super thrilled about the implied outcome. I knew about the Three Houses stage and spirit board on Christmas Eve thanks to one of my guys but didn't put two and two together. Up the upside, he didn't either but we both botched it thanks to our own bias. We both hard believed "only third party" for the Fighter's Pass and even I deduced the fantasy RPG swordsman part back in September. Ironically, even back in the summer, I outright said that if Three Houses was getting a rep, it would be Byleth because they always pick the lead for playable spots but, again, I totally dismissed not only first party and promotional characters because I personally hadn't heard them.

Going through all this, it's pretty easy to deduce who applies to what and why. For example, I have absolutely no attachment to Dante (I want Phoenix), Master Chief (FPS is by far my least favorite genre and never had an Xbox of any kind), or Crash but I'm going with them anyways because of what I outlined here.

Iwata tribute better be Balloon Fighter. Balloon Fight is probably my favorite NES game. At least top 5.

 

[TriggerX]

Was that Ken leak even proven to be real? Yea, we got Ken, but it doesn't necessarily mean that leak was real. Could have just been coincidence.

These days its weird that anyone is posting pictures or videos with such reduced quality unless they were trying to mask something.
Even if you were trying to reduce reflections to save your own hide, Idk, why not just crop the image of the character out as well.

Personally I lean towards it being faked, there’s even a mii costume pic with a hat that looks like basically the same one from the video. It’s a pretty good recreation if it were just a copy.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Fatmanonice when Geno get's revealed, please record your reaction on Youtube please. I really want to see your live reaction towards Geno.

Iwata tribute better be Balloon Fighter. Balloon Fight is probably my favorite NES game. At least top 5.

Balloon Fighter would make more sense as the Iwata tribute since I believe that was the first game he ever coded.