I did pretty well at yesterday's tourney, although S2J beat me convincingly.
Some things I think I need to a little differently against Falcon, starting with the general:
-Land more combo starters. Isolated hits here and there are okay, but Falcon wins the attrition war since he lives longer than ICs and kills them at lower percentages.
-Don't let Falcon push me to the side. Stomps through a platform are very hard to punish and typically lead to at least one IC taking a lot of damage or dying. Incidentally, when this does happen, I either need to come up with a better way of punishing stomps through platforms or just not challenge them; I think the latter is more practical.
-Mix up my grab game a little more. I actually do a decent job at this, but there are times when I keep going for dthrow -> dair when I already know other things will work more reliably.
Specifics:
-Usmash more. It should beat most of Falcon's preferred approaches well and it leads to good juggles. It's a little risky, but the reward should be worth it. In any case, at low percentages, it's definitely better than fsmash, which I tend to do a lot since it also beats Falcon's approaches; however, fsmash doesn't lead to much unless it puts Falcon in a position to be edgeguarded.
-A little less bair and better follow-ups after nair. While nair does tend to lead to things, they're typically not guaranteed. After I nair or nair -> jab, if I don't think I have a guaranteed follow-up based on where my opponent is, I should probably wait for a roll or double jump and react accordingly. Bair is good for edgeguarding Falcon, but it's really not that useful otherwise. It won't KO him unless he doesn't expect it at all and DIs it terribly, but that's uncommon against good players, and it never leads to anything except at really low percentages, when you can sometimes get away with goofy things like bair -> wavedash dsmash/grab.
- Better retention of the center. This goes along with the "don't let Falcon push me to the side" bit, which should be a subcategory of this bullet point, but I'm lazy and not going to reformat things. It also fits under "general" better, but eh. When Falcon is to my side, I often approach. This is understandable, but I need to use better judgment about when I forfeit the position; what are the risks associated with approaching the sides and what are the rewards? Good players are extremely cautious about the ICs' edge tricks, so I can't gamble on random grabs or fsmashes/nairs that much. Plus, approaching people at the sides is often inherently risky. If I think Falcon might drop the ground from a platform (which most players really aren't likely to do as Falcon; I need to stop assuming they will) and they don't, then I'm in a position where Falcon can stomp away, assuming the platform is low enough, which it is on most stages you want to fight Falcon on. If I go for a full jump punish and miss, Falcon gets a big combo. Granted, I could DI those better, but even if I do, I still take a lot of damage and end up in a terrible position, so I don't think this actually makes much of a difference.
On the other hand, I'm sometimes likely to forfeit control of the center when I don't need to. For the most part, I'm good about not doing this unnecessarily, but I think I am more capable of fighting for control of the position then I give ICs credit for. For example, usmash would probably be good for maintaining control of the position, as it likely will stop many of the ways Falcon likes to get in.
-Learn the timing for shield-grabbing raptor boost a little better. This also isn't that big a deal, but it's something I have no excuse for not doing.