Fire Emblem: Awakening Mafia | GAME OVER: Not Equal To The Challenge

[FullMetalLynch]

*too comfortable

 

[Sokr]

@FML, it's a mixture of how he answered my questions and the fact that I don't think scum would be that bad. Tbh, I trust your reads and you are my strongest town read. So I'm kinda waiting on your read on xast to come out because right now I'm hurting my brain trying to get a read on him. Also, answer my question please. You quoted it but never addressed it.

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Uno momento.

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Claim iffy because i can see it a counter point to towns ability to alter endgame due to the daykill ability. I would wager dast town to mean zen town in the event of a flip proving it true.
As for our read,we are hammering it out atm. Rakes busy so im grabbing snippets of time to talk with him when he has the time.
@Kantrip-working on convincing rake one way or the other, but bh i dont se xast goinv away as a discussion point and thus that is a big factor towards separating

 

[FullMetalLynch]

As an aside biggest scumpick sokr?

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Kary,you called ran scum before,but spent all your time to yell at xast without feeling ran out. Now you are rolling on zen,so what happened with ran?

 

[Sokr]

I'm gonna leave xast out as I can't even handle his slot. And the only reason I'm doing this is because he's got enough guys on his case and I wouldn't be contributing.

I'm not liking zen but I'd wait on xastrns flip or more content to substantiate that read. Xastrn's flip wluld be very helpful in figuring out what zen is.

I really didn't like pawn and ran is only a little better. I should probably re read on him. But he's probably the scum read I'm least iffy on.

In summary... ran or zen, depending on xastrns flip. Until xast dies (assuming he will) I'd go with ran.

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Orbo head to reread ran after football and finishing my book

 

[Circus]

Current Roster:
Kary supported by: Zen
Red Ryu
dabuz
Ranmaru
Sokr supported by: Potassium
FullMetalLynch supported by: Xastrn

Actions Taken:

Day 1

• Ryker Pairs Up with Raziek at 5:23am EST, 10/27/13
• soup Pairs Up with Colonel Stars Zen at 11:39am EST, 10/27/13
• Potassium Pairs Up with Sokr at 8:30pm EST, 10/27/13
• FullMetalLynch Pairs Up with Red Ryu at 2:29am EST, 10/28/13
• Zen Separates from soup at 6:06pm EST, 10/30/13
• Xastrn Attacks soup at 6:10pm EST, 10/30/13

Day 2

• Red Ryu Separates from FullMetalLynch at 12:07am EST, 11/02/13
• Xastrn Pairs Up with FullMetalLynch at 1:35am EST, 11/02/13
• Zen Pairs Up with Kary at 3:27am EST, 11/03/13

 

[FullMetalLynch]

We need somone who is able to shoot xast if we separate.
Ryu cant.
Zen cant.
I cant.
Sokr said he wont.
Kantrip cant unless sokr separates

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

What do you mean I can't shoot?

I'm reading the OP and I don't see why if I choose to separate I can't attack.

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Doesn't separating count as a day action? Weve come to the decision that xast has to go because he is too big a distraction but we dont want shenanigans happening inbetween

 

[FullMetalLynch]

"A player who elects to separate will immediately go.into wait mode"

 

[Xastrn]

I'm back. Reading. Going out to see Ender's Game with my wife in about an hour. I've got another engagement at 6pm as well. I don't know Xatres' schedule yet so I can't comment on his potential activity.

I'm going to try to do the dabuz read now, even though I'm not caught up on my post tracker.

Do me a favor: what's the fastest way to see all of his posts in this thread? I screw up the search function pretty much every time I use it.

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Go to the seaech bar,by dabuz in the posts by this user thing,click this thread only.

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Rake here with a quick shot.
Argued with Orbo all morning over this(stubborn american assholism OP) and he crushed my feels on this. Xast going needs to happen for any sort of town cohesion to occur.

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Got roped inyo washing the car before i could separate.

 

[Xastrn]

We need somone who is able to shoot xast if we separate.
Ryu cant.
Zen cant.
I cant.
Sokr said he wont.
Kantrip cant unless sokr separates

This is correct, btw. Only Kantrip or Sokr can shoot. Sokr only can if Kantrip separates. Kantrip right now is the only hammerer possible, if the hammer is on me. FML can hammer someone else, since he's the active with no day activities.

Regarding the night kill dismissal:
It appears that people are only focused on individual reads in this game, without paying attention to larger movements. We've asked, as well as FML btw, what motivation scum had for their kill, and what potential combination of killing could have happened.

Why this is important:
If we can understand the reasoning behind the killing, we can see things other than just individual reads. This game is not a crapshoot all about our feelings on each other. We have to play the broader game.

In our opinion, scum had a piercing weapon that could shoot through and kill both of a pair. We believe that the double kill was used to ensure that Raziek died.

Why do we feel this way:
When soup was exploding himself yesterday, two players attacked him. Raziek first, and then us. Scum knows we're both town (I know this because I'm town. You have to play along to imagine the scenario. Don't worry, I'll present the opposite scenario in which I'm scum.)
Raziek's attack fizzled because Zen hadn't separated yet. When Zen separated, Xatres chose to make the hammer.

Soup flipped town. Who would be the natural targets for town to target D2? Us and Raziek. Given the two choices, it would have been a rational discussion about the merits of each kill. Rational would be required because of the options. Raging against both with no discussion would lead to a coin flip, since the rage wouldn't be beneficial in figuring out facts. So people would have been more calm, and looked more and more into D1.
With Raziek gone (who had little to no heat on him whatsoever D1), all town was left with as a first target was us. We had taken some heat D1, AND we had (in the eyes of some, who are wrong) broken our rule, implicating us further.

This led to a town rage, and big wagon, and hardly any rational case-building taking place. Potassium has finally actually presented a case, by quoting the posts from D1 that referenced us in any sort of negative light.
@Potassium: Thank you. You contributed instead of raged. I've said it a dozen times. I don't mind the heat as long as it's a rational case instead of just omgus or rage or whatever.

With town only having one target, it made a second mislynch obvious. Scum would help fuel the rage. One or two of them would jump on board with it, or stoke the fire at the very least. Town would be stuck in a funnel, and progress could not be made.

Scum stood everything to gain by killing Raziek because it forced attention on Xastrn.

This should be a rational thought that goes through your mind. If you look at overall goals of scum, or imagine you are plotting your N1 kill, you HAVE to assume there was a discussion about what kill helps scum win D2. All of us have been scum before, and ALL of us have had those conversations. So let's not pretend that considering the implications of the kill are irrelevant, because they are not.

Again, This is not a game that is only about individual reads. As it turns out, most of us are not that good at that. We all thought soup was scum. We were wrong. Half of you think we are scum. You are wrong. (only I know that ... blah blah ... flip or game ending will tell you.)

Considering motivations IF XASTRN IS SCUM:
Imagine that we are scum. That isn't too hard for many of you, right?
Imagine we had just hammered and mislynch soup and scooped an uber weapon. We clearly can't wield it. Is that agreed upon? We used dragonstone, and that narrows us down to one race with only a few characters even available, and none that could wield a sword (to my knowledge. Correct me if you are aware of a character who can weild dragonstones and falchion. Also consider if that character would be given dragonstones to start I dunno. FE flavor is not my thing). We would have to use a Day action to trade it privately to a scummate who potentially COULD wield it.

Now consider the conversation we'd have in private during N1. We would talk about who needs to die, and why that kill benefits us as a group. You're all smart and you can see that it's rational that we would take some heat D2 and it'd be a coinflip if we were dead or not, probably.
We used our Day action to pair up, NOT to trade the weapon.So during N1, assuming we are scum, what's our motivation to kill raziek and ryker? Either it's the ballsiest bus I've ever seen, and creates a bus situation when one was not necessary, as we could have focused primarily on Raz and pretended we were the town heroes for keeping the weapon from Raz's hands...That would have been easy enough. The bus would have made WAY more sense on D3, once we had a free mislynch AGAIN, and then a night kill AGAIN, and then the bussing of Xastrn could happen then when scum numbers are looking great.

*****************************

Wall of text. I know. I communicate thoroughly. As does Xatres. There's a reason he's a professional writer, and I've been teaching and speaking for a decade. We are thorough and organized. It's in our nature.

I want you to consider this stuff with no emotion. It's worth it, even as an exercise if you plan on ensuring my death today. You might get better at mafia or BiM just by stopping for 20 minutes and considering this sort of thinking. (oh my, he's being condescending...I'll make your snippet post before you will, so your response isn't wasted on that crap...)
No, I don't think I'm better than all of you. But I do believe I am thinking more clearly and rationally than about half of you (we know who I mean) and emotion doesn't create good reads. Not in life, and not in mafia games. Not in most other video games either. Playing the odds, finding the right camping locations, timing baron in league, placing wards in the right spots, selecting weapon loadouts in COD, mapping an attack path in Rainbow Six. Whatever. You don't get mad and rush. You stop and refocus and consider all options.

Ok, Dabuz read time for me. Thanks for putting up with my wall of text, if you bothered reading it at all...

 

[Xastrn]

Started by Dabuz read, fyi. But I have to leave now for Ender's Game. Be back in a few hours.

 

[Sokr]

K, first of all, you've got me and potassium backwards Xastrn. Second, where on earth are you getting that everyone thought soup was scum? Third, how is you in your scum scenario killing town a bus? Fourth, no we can't agree that you can't use the weapon you have. I don't think it says anywhere that everyone can only use one weapon type. In fact, no weapons breaking over the night points to you if anything. Btw, the only emotion I am experiencing right now is sheer bewilderment. It's uncharacteristic of someone who looks so carefully at everything to overlook these key details.

 

[ranmaru]

I really didn't like pawn and ran is only a little better. I should probably re read on him. But he's probably the scum read I'm least iffy on.

You should do that, if your read on me isn't solid. Or just ask me stuff I dunno.

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Sokr fine with Switching to let kanttip shoot y/n?

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Ran fine with shooting xast if town wills it y/n?

 

[#HBC | Kary]

Kary after all your problems with how Xastrn has been playing, do you honestly still townread him?

Xastrn is a distraction. But unlike Ryu, I don't think they're trying to be a distraction, I don't think they're dredging up all of this stuff because they're scum. I am still leaning more town than scum on them. There are much easier ways to play scum and I find i hard to believe they would intentionally do this.

But w/e. I can't make FML put them in the firing line, and I can't stop someone from shooting them.

But Xast doesn't have to be the whole focus of toDay. Even if he is scum, he has to have buddies. I want to pursue them before anything happens anyways. I don't want to be back at square one tomorrow.

What do you make of Zen pairing with you?

It's pretty typical of Zen. It also reeks of self-preservation, given that I just said that I didn't like his slot. He hasn't said anything in private yet so we'll see how that goes.

 

[ranmaru]

Ran fine with shooting xast if town wills it y/n?

Maybe. I'm still trying to develop my read further as I'm waiting for them to catch up with dabuz and reads, and I also want to talk reads with Zen and the like. Dabuz is someone I want to put more attention to.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

Kary,you called ran scum before,but spent all your time to yell at xast without feeling ran out. Now you are rolling on zen,so what happened with ran?

I called Ran scum just to see what his reaction would be. I haven't really seen enough to make my mind up on Ran. I have some concerns about his reads, and he seemed to be kinda hyper-enthusiastic like maybe he was nervous. I would like for him to be town but it could go either way.

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Work op though

 

[Kantrip]

Zen was going to pair with Ran, why did he jump on Kary?

I think he was scared of me and Kary pairing up and getting time to discuss.

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Kantrip will shoot xast if sokr switches yes?

 

[Kantrip]

Sure, but I'm pretty sure Sokr would shoot if the town willed it.

His read on Xastrn has gone scum->town->scum->town->????? and I think he's given up on trying to read him and will submit to what town wills.

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Good. We need to make sure town doesnt leave itself without a shooter

 

[Kantrip]

FML talk to me about Kary a bit.

Also, what do we do if Xastrn does flip town?

 

[Kantrip]

Kary are you opposed to seeing Xastrn dead? How can one of him and Zen be scum and not the other, with their claims? I remember you not liking Zen but thinking Xastrn is town. Who do you want to see dead toDay?

 

[FullMetalLynch]

Karys odd. Like he's not really put too much out there,and one call out on ran with little follow up doesnt make for good feels. Almost like he couldnt find anything to go on. Also I feel karytown would press more on his scumspects instead of sitting there and ******** with a guy he calls likely town.
Xast town makes Zen town likely, would look at kary and rr more imo.

 

[Kantrip]

Why did you want to pair up with Xastrn? What have you guys talked about?

 

[FullMetalLynch]

A-role related stuff
B-Everyone was ******** about him,and we felt indecisive on our read. Best way of solving that was talking to.him directly.
Weve discussed his reads and talked about RR and you,as well as him showing us his general approach to the game.

 

[Kantrip]

And judging by your willingness to separate and have someone shoot him, I'm guessing you came to the conclusion he is scum?

Kary I see you viewing, answers pls

 

[Sokr]

I'm willing to switch or separate with potassium but I'm not willing to shoot Xastrn atm.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

Kary are you opposed to seeing Xastrn dead? How can one of him and Zen be scum and not the other, with their claims? I remember you not liking Zen but thinking Xastrn is town. Who do you want to see dead toDay?

I am opposed to it, because I don't think he'll flip scum. On the other hand all I can really do to stop it happening is to shoot someone else, which doesn't really help with town getting along.

There is nothing about their claims that means they're necessarily one alignment or the other. The ability to shoot someone, and the ability to make the Day end, could both be scum powers. Now you could argue that with two night kills, it would be unbalanced for scum to also have those powers. Fair enough.

There's also no guarantee that both claims are true. There's nothing to rule out that one half could be town with those abilities, the other could just be a scum safe claim. And the only part of the claim that could be proved, being able to end the Day without a kill, would be detrimental to town in doing so.

Now, if I could see the whole setup, then maybe i would be able to make a value judgement as to whether I think those roles are legit. But given that, as far as I know, these two roles are only implied to be town to one another- not even guaranteed- i have no desire to put their claims above my reads on their slots.

I already answered who I would shoot, about a page back. I didn't want to shoot anyone, but if forced I said I would shoot Zen.

What I would really like to do is get some reads out of people, that aren't just about Xast. RR, Zen, dabuz... etc. I don't really know where any of these players stand overall.

 

[Kantrip]

I'm willing to switch or separate with potassium but I'm not willing to shoot Xastrn atm.

May I ask the difference, assuming if you switch or separate with me it means I will shoot Xastrn?

Do you not want to be held responsible for the shot, or do you want to save your weapon from breaking, or do you have another reason?