Ok, let's forget about what's right for the game and think of this in pure numbers.
[collapse="Math"]In a 16-man tournament, to get down to the final 8 you need:
- 1 initial round of 8 matches
- 1 round of 4 winners' matches
- 2 rounds of 4 losers' matches
We don't care about the winners' matches since they'll happen concurrently to the losers' rounds, so assuming you have 8 setups, you get to final 8 in 3 rounds of matches.
In a 32-man tournament, to get to final 8 you need:
- 1 initial round of 16 matches
- 1 round of 8 winners' matches
- 1 round of 4 winners' matches
- 2 rounds of 8 losers' matches
- 2 rounds of 4 losers' matches
Again, we don't care about winners' since they won't interrupt losers', so as long as you have 16 setups you're clear to finish in 5 rounds of matches.[/collapse]
tl;dr: starting from 16 players, 8 setups and 3 rounds, to get to to top 8 you need to double setups and add 2 rounds each time you double the number of entrants.
Finally, top 8 (that is, 4 people remaining in winners' and 4 in losers') requires:
[collapse="Math 2"]
- winners' semis (2 matches)
- winners' finals
- losers' top 8 (2 matches)
- losers' top 6 (2 matches)
- losers' semis
- losers' finals
- grand finals (up to 2 matches)
[/collapse]
tl;dr 2: If the entirety of top 8 is streamed, that's 9 rounds of matches plus Grand Finals.
Last year, Evo had
6 hours of stream time for each game's quarters' and semis followed by 1.5 hours for finals on Sunday, so I'm not worried about time constraints there. (If you want to know how many entrants each game had, someone posted that
here)
What does this all mean for EVO?
Ok, let's assume best case scenario time-wise: Melee is capped at 512 entrants (or doesn't reach 512 in the first place) and Mr. Wizard has managed to procure
256 GCs/Wiis and CRTs. There is the initial round of 256 matches followed by
12 rounds of losers' before we get to the top 8. Giving everybody leeway and assuming each round of bo3 games would take 1/2 an hour, that's
6.5 hours before we get to top 8.
Half that many setups and the initial round needs to be split in 2 and Winners' 1 has to happen after Losers' 1. Thus, 2 rounds' worth of time is added and total time increases to
7.5 hours.
Half again (64 setups) and Round 1 is split in 4, all of Losers' 1, Winners' 1, and Losers' 2 are split in 2, and Winners' 2 can't happen at the same time as Losers' 3. 13 rounds has now ballooned to 20, and we now need
10 hours to get to top 8.
Super tl;dr: Before we can say how long the tournament can take, we need to know how many setups we have. Anything less than 1/4 the amount of players, and tournament length increases exponentially.