Etrian Nomination Mafia - Endgame: Until the Day the Adventurers Rise Again

[#HBC | Ryker]

I don't really think so. Putting up purely nebulous slots shrinks mafia's space to hide, either because they're making it easier for town to read/process them or they **** up and get lynched and make the nebulous slots look better by default. I also don't think there's much danger in putting up hardtown slots either. At worst, nobody's read is impacted and at best a miracle happens and one of them gets lynched. It's not like they're lynching them on a normal day anyway, right?

I don't have any sufficient evidence or logic to back up my thinking, I just gutread the situation as we're all town. Z makes an excellent point that Poke, after both his entrance and later doubling down on Shish's lynch, is committing suicide to go into the pit. Kantrip was also not in the most favorable position either, even if he wasn't as bad as Poke, and I think he knows he's got a 50/50 shot of getting bodied if he puts himself into the pit against us as mafia.

The thing that just crossed my mind is whether or not mafia committing suicide is beneficial to mafia.

I've been watching the mechanical back and forth with you and Soup about whether there's scum in the pool. My initial reaction was like Soup's. There's one in there, which would be you in all likelihood from my PoV, but that doesn't jive with my read at the moment. However, the more I thought about it, the more I did not like the idea of trying to guess what a player like Nabe or one of these yahoos I don't know would do with the ability to pick the pool.

End of the day, I'm just gonna continue playing the game and deciding who I think is scum. At EoD, I'll just vote whatever I think is most likely to yield scum of the options I've got. I can revisit these pools when I've got some red flips.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Holy ****, it's almost 4am and stopping my eyes from glazing over reading that DF wall is ****ing hard.

 

[Kantrip]

soup's defense of Z25 was very out of place for me. I don't understand his confidence so early that "Z25 [was] a mislynch waiting to happen." I also see a lot of soup's play as mechanical and don't follow the logic of the reads aspect of his play. He's held a thirdkoopa scumread all game which I look forward to hearing more about, and in general I don't feel like I've gotten a grasp of why he has the reads he does.

For example, his claim that he never stated Z25 was a townread goes against the feeling I picked up from his defense. Considering the other potential wagons were also semi-inactive crapshoots that could be described as "mislynches waiting to happen" (Fire, Shish, Pokechu) I don't understand why he was against lynching Z25 and felt "there were better options" if he is going to maintain now that he didn't even think Z25 was necessarily town.

 

[Kantrip]

I like Joey. I like Laundry but I'm wary because he's certainly flooding the thread with content and asking a lot of questions, but at no point have I actually looked at an individual post and seen exactly how it would help him find scum. Rather, I see his questions as a wide net he's casting for information but it's yet to be seen if he's using this information or not, or if it's just to keep appearances. I like disfunk's entrance, he replaced third right?

I have no opinion of Nabe. He called soup scum in RVS and when asked said that he didn't and doesn't think soup is scum. Past that I can't remember anything. I also have no opinion of Fire.

#HBC | Ryker - Why did you go with Fire at the end of Day 1? Do you think that slot is likely scum at this point? Do you agree with Laundry's assertion that myself or Pokechu nominating ourselves as scum would be suicide?

Disfunkshunal - Why does Nabe shoot up your scum list if I'm scum?

Z25 - What do you think of what Laundry said about Pokechu and myself being nominated? Do you think anyone other than me that's been nominated is scummy?

 

[Kantrip]

I want to wait to see what Ryker gains from rereading his EOD stuff since sitting back and watching other people commit to stuff came at the expense of him giving us nothing to work with from him on that front. Hopefully it helped because I want to see some hard stances from him this phase.

Lynch preference for toDay at the moment is probably Ryker>Pokechu>Laundry and outside the pool I'd go for soup or Z25 with Fire and Nabe as my nullreads. I don't feel like any of my reads in this game are particularly strong though.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Ok, I got through it.

DF is incredibly interesting to me. I need to be online at the same time he is this phase. It could be FUN.

For now, I'll just ask Disfunkshunal , can you link the game that was being compared between Kantrip and Seph? I gathered it was a game in which both RVS voted Z25 initially and stuck by it after RVS. You say Kantrip is trying to capitalize on Z25's inexperience like Seph did, so that means you have reason to believe that his stated reasons for thinking Z25 was scum last phase after RVS were insincere. What has tipped you off to that? I mean, you say Kantrip's wall is nitpicky and ****, but you also say his initial push is not scummy. I'm unclear where his "continued push" becomes scummy from your paragraph.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

God, suddenly I really wish I wasn't about to talk about Kantrip.

 

[Kantrip]

#HBC | Laundry - I don't like that you boil down my read on Z25 to his refusal to commit to anything. It's much more than that. Do you think my push is flawed/incorrect/scummy, or are you just against it because you disagree with its conclusion? Also, you think Ryker is town and that Pokechu or myself nominating ourselves as scum would be dumb, so I assume you feel all the nominees are town? So which of us would you prefer to lynch, then?

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

#HBC | Ryker - Why did you go with Fire at the end of Day 1? Do you think that slot is likely scum at this point? Do you agree with Laundry's assertion that myself or Pokechu nominating ourselves as scum would be suicide?

I went after Fire at the end of Day 1 because the end of Day 1 was a hell of a crap shoot. To be quite honest, I would've been fine with either dying. I was more interested where people would jump in crunch time and who would come out of the woodwork that would otherwise lurk. I can't say if Poke showed up after lurking the thread or just happened to roll in there. Fire certainly seemed to suddenly develop a sense of self preservation when it looked dicey, but he still showed no content. You showed up near the end and I got something worth reanalyzing rather than a worthless Z25 vote while we agreed to lynch Shishoe.

So, short answer, I didn't care which of them died, but I'm drooling at the chance to go back over the EOD now which is a far sight better than a quiet EOD where we all agree to lynch a ****ing 50-50 slot.

~~~~~~~~~~~

Yeah, I do, but that's because I'm the ****. I don't know Pokechu and I don't think you couldn't muster the balls to take a shot at the champ if you had a plan going in. As I stated earlier, I'm not gonna say there's scum in this pool without flips and a reason to think they may have had a plan they were executing rather than raw conjecture about all the possible plans they could have.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

You gonna be up for a minute, I can wait on posting my read if I can get a chance to talk with you this morning/night/place for those who don't sleep.

 

[Kantrip]

I'm gonna be up for a bit longer and I'm down to talk, yeah.

I know you asked disfunk, but here's Seph's ISO in the game he's referring to: https://smashboards.com/search/178066/

To clarify, Seph was scum in this game and the claim is that he went after Z25 in a similar manner to what I'm doing in this game. I did not go after Z25 that game, and in fact townread him. We lynched Seph Day 1 for reasons unrelated to him pushing Z25. I disagree with the notion that my push on Z25 can be compared to anything Seph did, but I'll let anyone who wants to read for themselves take a look.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

I mean, being real, you're where I'd aim the lynch right now if I was just throwing it out. I'm sure you get that. I've got the EOD from all three of the not-me candidates to analyze and a lot more to cover, but right now that's where I'm looking. Want to go through EOD with me?

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

To clarify, Seph was scum in this game and the claim is that he went after Z25 in a similar manner to what I'm doing in this game. I did not go after Z25 that game, and in fact townread him. We lynched Seph Day 1 for reasons unrelated to him pushing Z25. I disagree with the notion that my push on Z25 can be compared to anything Seph did, but I'll let anyone who wants to read for themselves take a look.

RE:Bolded. I figured that was the case, but I want Disfunk to respond based on what he gathered from the comparison before hearing anyone else talk about it. Got no problem with people discussing it later if it's relevant, but that's something his read seems to be taking into account. I want to know why.

 

[Kantrip]

That's understandable. In a hypothetical Town-you's shoes under the assumption you feel the same about Laundry as I do, I'd feel the same way.

Also, Pokechu showed up in almost exactly the same manner in the game I linked you and hammered Seph. I don't know if it's something he does intentionally, but he seems to make a habit of it.

Sure, I'll go through EOD with you. Anything in particular?

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Also, somebody (maybe Disfunk) was taking issue with me not giving reads. Ask and ye shall receive. I'm not likely to volunteer them outside of the occasional state of the union address. I would love nothing more than to talk at length with you about them. Just be ready to swap reads. I love talking to people.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

That's understandable. In a hypothetical Town-you's shoes under the assumption you feel the same about Laundry as I do, I'd feel the same way.

Also, Pokechu showed up in almost exactly the same manner in the game I linked you and hammered Seph. I don't know if it's something he does intentionally, but he seems to make a habit of it.

Sure, I'll go through EOD with you. Anything in particular?

Was he town (I assume from the way you're talking he was).

Also, I'm gonna go through and find a post number to start from and then go through. I want to forge connections and see who had an agenda and who comes across organic.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Arbitrarily, I'm going to start at #361 through EoD. I'm gonna go back farther later, but it's 4:30 atm.

 

[Kantrip]

Yeah Pokechu was town, wagons were tied and his vote was necessary to tip the scales which he did on an off-the-cuff gut feel.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Actually, first, let me ask you a question. What lynches, in your opinion, were viable lynches at some point during the EOD scramble?

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Also, would you agree going into the EoD scramble, it seemed pretty likely Shishoe was getting the axe? I didn't really see anything that looked too viable other than him until I started monkeying around.

 

[Kantrip]

Fire and Shish are what it boiled down to, obviously. I think Third was also completely viable. Z25 and soup weren't outside the question in my eyes, even if one was blocked and the other had a very weak failed push.

 

[Kantrip]

I actually get the impression that Fire was the easier compromise. Shish seemed to be a more polarizing figure since there were things to go off of whereas Fire basically had everyone saying "sure if there's no one else."

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Y'know. I just realized that if I had a consensus town read I didn't think I could lynch, I'd just put them in the pool every time so Town had less choice on who died. I can think of a couple scenarios where I'd change that, but I think discussing them is proooooooooobably dumb as **** unless they become relevant.

 

[Kantrip]

Yeah I think it benefits scum to lump universal townreads in the pool to limit options, and eventually the pool might be comprised of all consensus townreads where town has to make a tough decision.

Also, rereading these EOD posts I'm seeing more than I remembered from Nabe. I think he put a non-trivial amount of effort into swinging to soup and I kind of dig it.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

I actually get the impression that Fire was the easier compromise. Shish seemed to be a more polarizing figure since there were things to go off of whereas Fire basically had everyone saying "sure if there's no one else."

Ok, sure. We'll operate under that for now then. Maybe I considered Shish more likely as a lynch target because in my head, I was voting for that slot then, even if it didn't pan out that way.

Anyway, here's what we're gonna do, and all you sleeping boys and girls can do it on your own time if you feel so incline. Essentially, when EOD is mostly set, scum are preeeeeeeetty free to commit to whatever stances they want on the players that aren't in the pool. With the sudden additions of new names to the mix, you get to see if anybody doubled back on what they may have previously stated was scummy or suddenly develop the ability to lynch someone because a new name they didn't have a real reason to save was entered into the mix. That's the obvious tell stuff and it's stupid hard to stop yourself from doing as mafia even if you know people are looking for it. In addition, I'm looking for connections "If X is scum, then Y is town/scum." That's ****-all useless until we get scum flips, but it's good to note.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

We know Shishoe is town, so we can watch who was willing to park it there, but that's less important unless they passed on something they professed to want to do earlier because town had to be on that wagon.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Nabe: #364 Shish, null but acceptable. Z25 town. Fire "weird." TK "done nothing wrong."

 

[Kantrip]

At first when Nabe gave up on his soup push he defaulted to Fire. You joined in at this point in time along with ThirdKoopa who actually thought Fire was scummier than Shish and not on a coinflip. At this exact moment it seemed Fire was going to be the consensus compromise because most people were defending Shish over him.

Laundry's #408 even laments that we're defaulting to Fire so it seems like he thought this is what the momentum looked like as well. Claims he didn't like it but was fine with it.

Joey comes in with the opposite stance, defending Fire and wanting to lynch Shish. My stance was basically that Fire would give us nothing, and if I couldn't have Z then I'd rather compromise to Shish or Third than Fire simply because they'd give us something to work with.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Oh man, meat and potatoes here in Z25 #369

Kantrip scum.
Shishoe, long winded nothing. Doesn't offer a stance. You could draw slight disdain from this post.
Laundry town.
Ryker town.
Soup, another observation that lacks a read he can be pinned on. Seems more favorable.
Pokechu, another back and forth without nailing himself down. Seems like null leaning scum? On his "to watch list."

All three of those are read based on tone of his posts, not stances.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

The case of Joey is very interesting to me because I don't feel like he's done much of note at all and I'm apparently in the minority. If memory serves, he just ****ing parks it on Shishoe and foo-foos on everything else. I think he said he'd compromise on Fire if need be at one point. What do you make of that behavior?

 

[Kantrip]

I think Joey's thought process lined up with mine in that he didn't like lynching Fire because it gave us nothing to work with. Everyone seemed fine with it and Fire hadn't interacted with anyone. I also really like Joey's questions to me when there was a post of mine he didn't like, and how my answers affected his read on me. Felt organic and although he isn't saying much I get the impression that he means what he says, if that makes sense.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Shishœ Would at deadline
Thirdkoopa Not without context
ѕoup Yes
Z25 No
Kantrip Why?
Fire Yes
Chu No
Joey No
Laundry Pleasant to read
Ryker Hard to stomach

An entire would lynch list from Nabe (formatting editted slightly to make it readable). He mostly sticks to this behaviour, iirc. I think the only abberant stance was that he flips on Z25 for a bit. I want to watch and see if he elaborates on that read.

 

[Kantrip]

That Z25 wall you linked is par for the course as far as a post riddled with qualifiers, stuffed with filler, and saying very little goes. It falls very in line with everything I've taken issue with from him. He didn't even comment on Fire or Third, and his comment on Shish was completely non-committal.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

I think Joey's thought process lined up with mine in that he didn't like lynching Fire because it gave us nothing to work with. Everyone seemed fine with it and Fire hadn't interacted with anyone. I also really like Joey's questions to me when there was a post of mine he didn't like, and how my answers affected his read on me. Felt organic and although he isn't saying much I get the impression that he means what he says, if that makes sense.

K. I need to go back over Joey completely today in any case.

On the point of Shishoe providing something on a lynch, what do you get out of a Shishoe lynch before the aforementioned EoD scramble and why wouldn't you have gotten something similar out of a Fire lynch?

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

First Fire Emblemier and then later #HBC | Laundry can you talk to me about your take on Z25. Particularly the post Kantrip just commented on. If you could wait until the lurkmaster5000 either comments or proves he won't, I'd appreciate it, Alex.

 

[Kantrip]

Shishoe had people defending his play in Nabe and Third (maybe others). Shish also had interactions with Pokechu and other posts that most likely had meaningful interactions in them (granted, I claimed Shish gave us more info assuming that his higher post-count implied this). I don't think anybody defended Fire, and everyone was either "I prefer Fire" or "I would compromise to Fire." That plus next to no posts made for a bad lynch, in my eyes.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

FWIW I'm not hardcore pushing anything because I know both of my options are *** and they're both being defended by meta when I don't have any to fight with.

We've tried to get more out of Shishoe but they've made it pretty clear that they're coasting to day 2. That's scummy, but that's it. Very base level, very open for error, still want them gone.

Z is straight up scummy to me. All of his defense in regards to himself is "I just play weird" or "I think my logic is really sound, but other people view it as weird". His one push on Kantrip is comparing him to a completely different player based on how that different player voted him + attacking him for how he went about his RVS vote. It feels like he's focusing way more on himself and how people view him than actually playing the game and trying to get reads on people (and his read list imo further solidified this for me). I want him gone, but getting shut down with "he's fodder" makes pushing that a little unrealistic with the amount of active players when I was around.



What part of my post is white knighting you?

Oh hey, a Joey post talking about Z being "straight up scummy."

Disfunkshunal what do you make of the logic here.

Kantrip, can you see if Joey was around when Z looked doable?

 

[Kantrip]

I don't recall Nabe swapping his stance on Z25. I think his view was that he sees where I'm coming from but disagrees with my conclusion. After him and I attempt another soup swing, he goes back to Fire again. It's after this vote that Pokechu comes in and guns for Shish. If Fire is scum I think this could potentially implicate Pokechu as this was a key turning-point where public perception of the wagons was pretty even.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

I'm just REALLY interested in who was on the Shishoe wagon and especially those who clambered on at the end (you and Pokechu iirc) if Fire flips scum later. Tbh, I wish I had that flip in my pocket now, but I think I'd think the same way about Shishoe if I had a Fire townflip right now. Basically, I just want a red flip.

 

[Kantrip]

I'm fairly sure Joey was with me on Z25 but moved his vote off earlier than I did. Evidently he realized sooner than I did that it wasn't happening, and the only mention of a Z25 lynch at EOD was you and Laundry telling me to move my vote because I wasn't getting one.