Etrian Nomination Mafia - Endgame: Until the Day the Adventurers Rise Again

[#HBC | Laundry]

soup's defense of Z25 was very out of place for me. I don't understand his confidence so early that "Z25 [was] a mislynch waiting to happen." I also see a lot of soup's play as mechanical and don't follow the logic of the reads aspect of his play. He's held a thirdkoopa scumread all game which I look forward to hearing more about, and in general I don't feel like I've gotten a grasp of why he has the reads he does.

For example, his claim that he never stated Z25 was a townread goes against the feeling I picked up from his defense. Considering the other potential wagons were also semi-inactive crapshoots that could be described as "mislynches waiting to happen" (Fire, Shish, Pokechu) I don't understand why he was against lynching Z25 and felt "there were better options" if he is going to maintain now that he didn't even think Z25 was necessarily town.

I wish this was Tinder so I could Superlike this post.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

#HBC | Laundry - I don't like that you boil down my read on Z25 to his refusal to commit to anything. It's much more than that. Do you think my push is flawed/incorrect/scummy, or are you just against it because you disagree with its conclusion? Also, you think Ryker is town and that Pokechu or myself nominating ourselves as scum would be dumb, so I assume you feel all the nominees are town? So which of us would you prefer to lynch, then?

After rereading your posts again, you did mention his Ryker vote in the initial solidification post and it was never mentioned again. I was more concerned how you mentioned his forced tone in that same post but then spent all of your time here:

The reason I don't like this reaction is because making a vote with no given reasoning like I did is commonplace during RVS and I'm not the only one who did it. I'm confused as to why Z25 would react so strongly claiming my post makes no sense when in actuality it makes perfect sense unless you take it at face value. I think scum is more likely to do this and have an adverse reaction because town is less concerned with one unfounded vote on them during RVS but scum needs to worry about the likelihood of it snowballing a wagon.

talking about his reaction. It looked like you were shifting the goalposts on Z25 a bit to make him look worse--it's why I asked you about the forced tone point at all. In hindsight I think I misread your intentions.

I think you're all town, your back and forth with Ryker helped solidify my thoughts. I'm currently going Poke at the end of the phase as I'll lose the least amount of sleep over it.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Laundry's #408 even laments that we're defaulting to Fire so it seems like he thought this is what the momentum looked like as well. Claims he didn't like it but was fine with it.

To clarify: I thought lynching Fire was a shot in the dark but in the scant amount of nothing he's given us I wasn't very impressed.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

To reiterate a question from yesterDay, why Kantrip? I don't think he made a single post yesterDay that didn't hit the board for me, and some scored triple. Specifically that's at Ryker / Laundry with context before post 400 or so. On mobile, not read up so forgive me if this has been answered.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

First @Fire Emblemier and then later #HBC | Laundry can you talk to me about your take on Z25. Particularly the post Kantrip just commented on. If you could wait until the lurkmaster5000 either comments or proves he won't, I'd appreciate it, Alex.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

To reiterate a question from yesterDay, why Kantrip? I don't think he made a single post yesterDay that didn't hit the board for me, and some scored triple. Specifically that's at Ryker / Laundry with context before post 400 or so. On mobile, not read up so forgive me if this has been answered.

His play for most of the phase up to that point had been "push Z25" and I felt his push was more inconsistent than Joey's and was never a fan of it.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

When did Laundry switch to Shish? Was he on before the point where he complained about people defaulting to Fire?

I had my vote on Shish before Ryker entered the thread.

 

[Pokechu]

Hmm

I probably won't be able to contribute much before phase end

Possibly last words (not really I'll def try to post a few more times) I still would shoot Laundry, just a hunch but ride or die 2018!!!

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

#HBC | Laundry On the subject of Kantrip:

His beginning is meh. I don't generally like the whole, sit on my RVS vote and his case was a ****ing disaster. However, he had a very tangible case that people could stand on. I didn't like him for reasons, flimsy though they were, which makes it a lot easier to get people to talk about. Joey I couldn't get anyone speaking about and I wanted to get something out of the thread. At the end of the day, Kantrip had done more to dislike than a slot like Shishoe, Fire, or TK, but I would lynch any of them first because they hadn't done enough to do more than Kantrip. Especially Shishoe who's only contribution that stands out is the ****ing aggressive push toward Pokechu at the beginning of the game.

After today, I'm beginning to suspect that Kantrip is the bait I'm supposed to take. I didn't like him in thread yesterday, so I'm supposed to do the Ryker thing and try and shove a lynch down his throat. I actually quite liked the back and forth I had with him. On most things, he agreed with me and when poked first, he comes to the same conclusions. He was actively poking on his own when he had something and not just waiting and responding to me. It's a good look. I could be wrong, I could be getting pocketed, but I think he's ok. At the moment I'd take Pokechu, but I'm pretty sure scum doesn't put a mafiat in this group. They put two lynchable townies and you in here with me. I'm supposed to lynch Kantrip, Poke is an acceptable death and maybe I go wild and lynch you. If I'm wrong about someone, it's probably you, but I'm not banging on that door today, methinks.

This is exactly where my head's at as well, actually.

 

[Pokechu]

Wild hip shot

Kantrip and Laundry? Possible scum team

Yay or nay

Thoughts ideas comments?

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

To reiterate a question from yesterDay, why Kantrip? I don't think he made a single post yesterDay that didn't hit the board for me, and some scored triple. Specifically that's at Ryker / Laundry with context before post 400 or so. On mobile, not read up so forgive me if this has been answered.

After rereading your posts again, you did mention his Ryker vote in the initial solidification post and it was never mentioned again. I was more concerned how you mentioned his forced tone in that same post but then spent all of your time here:

talking about his reaction. It looked like you were shifting the goalposts on Z25 a bit to make him look worse--it's why I asked you about the forced tone point at all. In hindsight I think I misread your intentions.

I thought his Z push was inconsistent and it came across like throwing **** at Z to see what stuck. I was skeptical of him as a result. When Ryker entered the thread and said he scumread him, I had little trouble believing it and wanted to see where he went with it.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Thoughts ideas comments?

Care to elaborate for the class?

 

[Pokechu]

Care to elaborate for the class?

You don't seem very genuine

Maybe because I haven't played with you? But

*waves hand around orb*

I don't feel town intent from your posts

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

That's not at all what I meant but okay, thanks for your contribution.

 

[Pokechu]

You are very welcome.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Analyze the Shish wagon at the end of day for me please. What do you think about the people on it?

 

[Dooms]

Wild hip shot

Kantrip and Laundry? Possible scum team

Yay or nay

Thoughts ideas comments?

Vote: Pokechu

LOL

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I don't necessarily believe that posting walls is the way to always state your intent to others, but if you need it all in one place here we go:

Z25 -
It bothers me a decent amount to hear people say I am defending Z25, when from my perspective I am only weighing options. He came into this game making posts that don't really offer anything then had an instantaneous response to Kantrip's pressure as if he were scum pushing him yet again in a scenario similar to Seph, but there was absolutely no means of reaching that conclusion. It's like he just settled upon it because of either fake or genuine frustration. My tone-read on Z25 is that he's far more constrained than he lets on, more particular when he is interacting with others. There is a sense of wanting to please that takes priority over reading alignment, which is not a good look for him and something I won't defend him. There is also the fact his only conviction lies in one player and despite his inflated post-count I don't necessarily find myself being able to understand where his head is at. Again, the idea that I hard-defended Z25 is ridiculous, lazy, and undermines me with is...annoying. I think the possibility of Z25 being scum goes down exponentially if Kantrip is instead.

3K -
Thirdkoopa's entrance in hindsight is probably not that bad, but the fact remains is that 3K himself cared about this entrance and presented a behavior that was simply odd, regardless of meta. I'll try and keep this to the point but how often do you see townies make posts near EoD that are essentially reminding people that someone is L-1? Not many, to be honest. Lot of his posts lack intent, purpose, and even direction. You can give 3K a bit of a break on the 3rd part if you've played with him but even then, I feel what I saw of him in PYP is merely non-existent here, and I think it matters a lot. When it came to finally getting down and responding to criticism, his reaction was not engaged interest rather it was complacent behavior determined by a bunch of guesswork he may or may have not actually made, and with in mind how careful he is in the way he responds to others and produced content, I'm inclined to think he's just scum who hasn't found in niche in developing a scumplay that is similar to his town one. I really didn't think Disfunk's read wall all too impressed me, so I remain at a confirmation bias level.

Kantrip -
The thing that Kantrip has going for them that 3K/Z25 don't is prior experience and a far more nuanced approach. I think Kantrip's content at the surface is decent but he's unfortunately low on my totem pole for petty reasons. When I read Kantrip's posts I get the gist of it but I also am not feeling that delicate manner he usually takes as I get the vibe he doesn't enjoy being wrong, yet here we are with Kantrip making grand statements about players such as Laundry in his first post that he's town. Saying someone is town is not what bothered me, having confidence is not a bad thing and I find usually townies are far more willing to take risks than calculated scum, but in particular when it comes to Kantrip I don't know to what extent is fake. The bigger gripe I have is that while Kantrip states he dislikes players (Z25), I just think his opinion is far more set up to seem..greater than what it is. I dunno, it's like when he came in here and was like 'looks like someone slipped in their first post! what a shame' made me tilt my head. This is not a basis of a case however, I am not saying that one post completely ruined Kantrip for me, It's just minor things that start to stack up, like why he was so certain on Z25 but then ended up voting Fire instead despite not taking the time to deliberate his alignment, lacking that consideration I normally see.

 

[Pokechu]

Vote: Pokechu

LOL

Weird flex but ok

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I think Kantrip/Z25 is the most likely to hold one. I think 3K is individually scummy. The third is far harder to find, but like I said Z25 looks just downright awful if Kantrip is scum, so much to the point I have to consider if he would really put himself in that position, because to me it's obvious they're not scum together, and if they are, they certainly didn't play this right nominating someone you're essentially tunneling (in Z25' perspective)

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Wild hip shot

Kantrip and Laundry? Possible scum team

Yay or nay

Thoughts ideas comments?

Only if Kantrip is scum. Do you want to vote him for that reason?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

20 minutes left in the day phase and we get a vote shift from Thirdkoopa. You wanna give your thoughts on it first, or me?

Read my #658

 

[Dooms]

Joey, I stand behind that my first vote was RVS and I think Z25 is lying when he says he would react the same way to it if I had chosen someone else. I also think by comparing it to Seph's vote on him in our last game and saying I'm "playing differently" (I'm not), he's OMGUS voting me and I don't see it as a genuine read. Ryker and Laundry had to pull teeth to get him to commit to it because he's making an active effort to avoid commiting to anything which comes off in the formation of his sentences and their content, hence my wall of quotes highlighting what I find off about his tone. Again, I only made that at Laundry's request, but I digress.

So yeah, I stand by my stance that his concern with my vote on him was uncharacteristically scummy and his response was basically "Seph did what you're doing and I caught him as scum, you don't want to suffer the same fate do you?" Like I said, this reads more like a threat to get me off his back than something a townie would say.

Soup, I dont get how this is trying to make a read seem greater than it is. He sat on Z until it was made clear that Z wouldnt be an option, and with this reasoning and the other lynch options, I 100% understand why. Can you elaborate on him trying to make this read seem stronger?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Soup, I dont get how this is trying to make a read seem greater than it is. He sat on Z until it was made clear that Z wouldnt be an option, and with this reasoning and the other lynch options, I 100% understand why. Can you elaborate on him trying to make this read seem stronger?

It's just certain posts and moments, and I'm sure you'll ask me which ones and I'd have to say they are minor things (like stated) that I glance upon that start to add up. I think if you wanted to compare Kantrip/3K in that same approach 3K has way, way more major things and my confidence level in 3K fliping scum is incredibly higher than Kantrip who would only be a good guess. Do you still think Z25 is a play after these voting phase? What do you think about the way votes were handled/chosen by scum?

 

[Dooms]

Oh and more as a fact-check, Kantrip switched to Shish, not Fire.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Oh and more as a fact-check, Kantrip switched to Shish, not Fire.

IMO my point still stands regardless, but uh oops

 

[Dooms]

It's just certain posts and moments, and I'm sure you'll ask me which ones and I'd have to say they are minor things (like stated) that I glance upon that start to add up. I think if you wanted to compare Kantrip/3K in that same approach 3K has way, way more major things and my confidence level in 3K fliping scum is incredibly higher than Kantrip who would only be a good guess. Do you still think Z25 is a play after these voting phase? What do you think about the way votes were handled/chosen by scum?

Clarify on the last sentence please. Referring to wagons or the 4 options today?

I think Z25 is a play after today. I still feel the same way I felt yesterday in that his play is way more self motivated and his lack of commitment to his scum reads is concerning (especially when sitting on Ryker the whole time). If I had to choose where my vote was going tomorrow, it'd 100% be there. Not buying into the "this is usually how he plays" arguments.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Clarify on the last sentence please. Referring to wagons or the 4 options today?

I think Z25 is a play after today. I still feel the same way I felt yesterday in that his play is way more self motivated and his lack of commitment to his scum reads is concerning (especially when sitting on Ryker the whole time). If I had to choose where my vote was going tomorrow, it'd 100% be there. Not buying into the "this is usually how he plays" arguments.

Yeah, the ones that were chosen by scum as in who we can vote today.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I don't really wanna vote Pokechu honestly, if there's someone I've gone back and forth in my head about it would be him. I kinda wanna vote Kantrip and see where Z25' conviction lies, and if he's scum I'm not feeling this is some bus going on and would be able to focus elsewhere. Laundry I know for a fact is not getting lynched even if I necessarily wanted it, and Ryker would be headache to even try (not that I want to). Pokechu to me just seems like the easy option, but I get a feeling that's where we'll be lynching anyways so I am prepared for that.

 

[Dooms]

Said prior that Pokechu is the most scummy out of the 4, but I don't know why he'd choose Ryker and Laundry. Still stand by that, and not a fan of Pokechu's contribution today either. It's honestly more of a "smallest loss to town" due to not being able to see the logic in throwing scum Pokechu into the pool. I think everyone in it is town. Pokechu > Ryker, but even then Ryker would need a lot of convicing. Not voting for the other two unless I have to to prevent multiple lynches.

 

[Z25]

I like Joey. I like Laundry but I'm wary because he's certainly flooding the thread with content and asking a lot of questions, but at no point have I actually looked at an individual post and seen exactly how it would help him find scum. Rather, I see his questions as a wide net he's casting for information but it's yet to be seen if he's using this information or not, or if it's just to keep appearances. I like disfunk's entrance, he replaced third right?

I have no opinion of Nabe. He called soup scum in RVS and when asked said that he didn't and doesn't think soup is scum. Past that I can't remember anything. I also have no opinion of Fire.

#HBC | Ryker - Why did you go with Fire at the end of Day 1? Do you think that slot is likely scum at this point? Do you agree with Laundry's assertion that myself or Pokechu nominating ourselves as scum would be suicide?

Disfunkshunal - Why does Nabe shoot up your scum list if I'm scum?

Z25 - What do you think of what Laundry said about Pokechu and myself being nominated? Do you think anyone other than me that's been nominated is scummy?

Laundry has some fair observations. I’d need to re read his specific posts to be sure but I don’t take issues. He’s kinda of vague with posts and leaves a lot open but I wouldn’t call that inheritly scummy.

Your exchange with Ryker has caught my attention more though.

Am I the only to notice Ryker is doing whatever he can to really avoid discussion on himself? He’s posting post after post targeting everyone else in the wagon. And he’s not even fact checking right such as his comment in when pokechu votes. For someone so dedicated to point out supicous posts, it feels like he’s low key half adding it because he only shows up for a little bit of time and then tries to be active while asking more questions and posting generic info then answers.

My biggest problem is how he only conviently showed up a little before deadline last phase and fought like hell to change the vote. With al the time he could have had between both these phases, his posts sound like desperate attempts to keep his name clean and around supiscion in everyone else.

Am I the only one against his tone and actions?

Your action with him has me leaning more towards town for you now and has really made me further questioned Ryker.

Maybe I’m right or wrong, but my vote is going to him.


Vote: Ryker

 

[Disfunkshunal]

Holy ****, it's almost 4am and stopping my eyes from glazing over reading that DF wall is ****ing hard.

It's k, my eyes were glazing over while typing it.

 

[Disfunkshunal]

Disfunkshunal - Why does Nabe shoot up your scum list if I'm scum?

Shoot up was an overstatement. In his #381 he mentions that he'd hang Shish over you and I was saying that, that preference could be noteworthy if you flip scum. As I mentioned before, Nabe is pretty null to me so your scum flip would give me something else to base a read on.

 

[Disfunkshunal]

RE:Bolded. I figured that was the case, but I want Disfunk to respond based on what he gathered from the comparison before hearing anyone else talk about it. Got no problem with people discussing it later if it's relevant, but that's something his read seems to be taking into account. I want to know why.

Without rereading the pyp game, this is what I recall being seph's play -- Z25 suggested that the town should give scum a powerful role and left. After further analysis, many people came to the conclusion that the role was too powerful and would put the town at an extreme disadvantage. Since Z vouched for the role, Seph pursued him under the "assumption" that Z scum slipped. Despite Z clarifying that he misunderstood the initial role and despite other, more pressing leads coming up, Seph remained relentlessly fixated on Z.

The parallel I saw here was the hard tunneling with a weak foundation. I mentioned it before but Kant's justification in #231 was super weak. I'm sure that he could apply the same word analysis to any number of players, myself included, and find overly verbose comments, and weak stances. Especially, if you're just looking at the first half of the first day phase where few people are confident in their reads. This is the point where it begins to turn scummy to me. Everything before that is fine, #169 where he asserts that Z25 would not have acted the same way had Kant's RVS landed elsewhere. For the record, I do agree with this point. He sits on his vote for the majority of the remainder of the phase to what ultimately amounts to a gut feeling, his own words. It was not a direct parallel, I admit that, b

Z felt like an easy lynch to me in both games but I didn't like him as scum in pyp and I don't like him as scum here. Again, it may be overconfidence/underestimation on my part but I feel that Z is very much a "you get what you see" kinda player. Admittedly, I haven't seen him as scum but I also haven't seen him vary too much as town. He plays the same character he played in the game before this one and the game before that one and I don't buy Kantrip's reasoning for why this time is different.

 

[Disfunkshunal]

Still at work so I might only be able to squeeze in a couple more thoughts now. I skimmed over the new stuff but haven't had much time to process it. I want to go over everything more carefully.

 

[Kantrip]

Man Pokechu's just asking to be lynched. Frustrating amount of input for someone in the hotseat.

Soup's recent wall doesn't help my feeling of him. As I feared, he has essentially nothing on ThirdKoopa and the buzzwords he throws out about lacking intent, purpose, and direction and being complacent seem more like he's stretching to justify a read rather than actually buying into it. His stance on Z25 still doesn't make sense, especially considering soup's scumread on me is relatively new and certainly wasn't a driving point for me yesterDay. I'm curious at what point soup began scumreading me this game because I have a hunch it will be just as disingenuous as the Third scumread he's been sitting on.

I'm actually faltering on my Z25 read, and seeing him back off of me and go for Ryker is a big reason why. As it stands now I would definitely hang soup before I'd hang Z25, although I'm still keeping an eye on him. I'm hoping I'll be able to read him better outside the context of interactions about scumreading each other.

The last thing I'll say about my Z25 push, though: Laundry asked me to elaborate on the "tone" portion of my read, so that's the only part I elaborated on. In my initial reasons for scumreading him I also mentioned his inconsistent approach to the Ryker wagon and his reaction to RVS pressure, and I agreed with the points Joey touched on in his push for Z25. If my push looks weak, it's only because I expanded on the one point I was requested to and didn't make a full case including all relevant details.

I am still pretty confident that Pokechu is town and only sort of confident that Laundry and Ryker are. However, the odds of both of them being scum are pretty low and they seem to trust each other at this point, so I don't think lynching one of them is likely.

I would love for more people to comment on the four lynch nominees, though.

 

[Moydow]

this is a few minutes late, whoops

Current vote count (as of post #675):

• Ryker: 1 (Z25)
• Laundry: 0
• Pokechu: 1 (KY Joey)
• Kantrip: 0

Not currently voting: Ryker, Disfunkshunal, ѕoup, Fire Emblemier, Laundry, Pokechu, Kantrip, Nabe

24 hours (less 8 minutes) remain in this phase.
Majority lynch begins now! With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Remember that only the four players listed above may be voted for in this phase! Votes for other players will not count.

 

[Kantrip]

I'm going to

Vote: Ryker

to put my money where my mouth is but I fully expect the lynch to fall between me and Pokechu and I'll switch to Pokechu if that becomes an inevitability.

 

[Pokechu]

Omg I thought today was phase end....

Dang

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Also, more of an OoC post, Ryker, myself, and Laundry have a prior commitment tomorrow. It starts 3 hours before deadline unless I can get there earlier. This probably means all 3 of us are going to miss deadline completely. Since that's nearly a 3rd of our players, if we're going to have a deadline rush like last time, may be better to have that type of rush earlier? Preferably we just need to start getting things out there and prepare for deadline today. Especially with the tied wagons = multiple lynches scenario, not having 3 of us there could cause big problems.

I am confident in my ability to be able to keep an eye open on the thread, but I will definitely not be able to be as active as I was at last day end.