I like how you have to make things targeted and personal when I'm simply stating the obvious based on facts that have been gathered.
Imagine hating on characters that people want in 2021, it's honestly such a weak mindset. Also, you are just wrong in general, but I digress...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For those of you thinking there is no third pass, become open-minded for a moment if you can, and think about these three things:
- President Furakawa in their most recent meeting talked about how crazy big their profits were from DLC in 2020, mostly from Sw/Sh (once again, gross) and Smash. Logically speaking, you can attribute big Smash sales to Pass 2. He then states they plan on expanding more into this in the future, which doesn't give a time frame and could mean near or distant future or both. I actually have the link to the document that lists these things and I was trying to just pull quotes for you guys but I'm running out of time before work so I'll just link the document here.
- Sakurai's statement of Pass 2 being the last of the DLC was in Min Min's Famitsu article, which of course was before Steve. Since his language in that article makes it seem as though the first two passes had all 11 characters chosen well in advance and thus before the massive sales results, it's very well within the realm of possibility that Sakurai could have been reached out to for more DLC after Steve's massive success, or possibly earlier and Sakurai wasn't allowed to talk about it yet or it wasn't concrete yet.
- Nintendo has being doing a lot of things other companies have been doing lately, for better or worse, and the new thing with fighting games is passes for more DLC for the same game that go on and on and on. Tekken 7 just announced more DLC as well as Samurai Showdown and just a bit before that Street Fighter 5. Nintendo now understands the profits to be made form DLC, and the Switch has only just hit the middle of it's life cycle, so the opportunity to make more Smash passes is ripe for the picking and Smash always generates the hype and, by the looks of it, the cash money as not only is DLC raking it in but Smash has placed itself as the third-best-selling Switch title over games like Sw/Sh, BotW and Odyssey.
So with all of this in mind, what ACTUAL arguments do you guys have against the overwhelming evidence that we will continue to get more Smash DLC? Keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in that we have only two character slots left for Pass 2 but that credible insiders have heard legitimate things about more than just two characters. I want to have a serious discussion, so I hope to see some good points brought up when I get off work, but honestly the side of 'no more dlc' is a very weak stance to have with little supporting evidence.
I'm glad that my joke paid off already. I specifically worded it as such to see if people would wonder if it was the Pokemon in Smash or the Pass 3 that I was joking about.
Clearly, it was the Pokemon, as it has no evidence behind it.
Not the Person you replying to, but personally I'm someone that doesn't expect Pass 3, but instead thinks they are either planning an Expansion, or a New game
-During FP1, I don't believe Sakurai said that FP1 was where Development would end. He may have said no plans, but with his statements on FP2, he has said that development would be over, which is pretty strong
I know you mention he only mentioned that Around Min Min, and not afterwards, and yeah it's possible they might change plans, but I also have to say that with the fact that he even said Development would end in the first place, it does seem like they were not leaving FP2 as open-ended as FP1
-Sakurai did say that his Pics of the day posts were winding down, as in there are not much in supply that would be coming. The Pic of the days are Development based picture Sakurai takes for his development staff, so if those are winding down, that does kind of imply Development is waning. He also Mentioned this around the end of last year, so this was after Steve, and I believe after Sephiroth as well
-Negotiations can take awhile, and I think the logic that they may have chose FP1 and FP2 around the same time might prove that. People now are expecting a lot of Big 3rd parties to appear in Smash, So Trying to get those type of characters will take awhile. now not everyone will be in talks for 5 years like Steve was, But alot of time and discussion does go into implementing these characters
Perhaps part of the reason FP1 and FP2 May have been chosen around the same time is that the characters in FP2 were already in discussion or were far in negotations, that it be a waste not to use them in FP2, and it allows the development to continue with no Breaks, because you don't want a delay in Production time. The people working on Smash are contractors, so once they have nothing to do, they go to other projects, which can mess up the team structure
Perhaps they don't have enough time to get be able to finalize everything for a FP3 without having a long pause, and that could mess things up
Of course they could go more of a 1st party route, but with that in mind, here's my next point
-They might find it more beneficial to Focus on the New game or big Expansion rather than just more DLC. Not everyone buys DLC now, as I believe around FP1 it was said the retention rate between people that have Ultimate and also bought DLC was around 20-30%. I have to find that claim though, but if it is true, it does show that there is kind of a drop in the Amount of people that pay attention to DLC, and as More passes and more costs add up, the less retention that comes along
Smash is an expensive game to make. These other Fighting games do have all this DLC, but the amount of effort and time that goes into their DLC is different from Smash. I would say Smash has more that goes into it's DLC than the other Fighting games on the market, in terms of the content the characters come with, Licensing costs (Since on average, The other Fighting games don't have as much guests), and etc.
Really, it's Speculative, but they might find it more beneficial to perhaps focus on planning out what the Next game would be like, perhaps as a Launch title for whatever the Next Console is, or even Switch upgrade. Ultimate does put Sakurai, Nintendo, and etc in a certain situation. Alot of planning is going to have to go to this next game since there will be very High expectations
So they might find it more beneficial, to Their wallets, to save whatever they may have planned to make the Next Smash game as big as it can be, as the impact of the New content might be more beneficial for a New Smash game or Expansion instead of continuing on Smash Ultimate DLC, that will start to see less and less retention as time goes on
Also the point about the Smash team being contractors pops up again because the people making the DLC for the other Fighting games are dedicated teams or branches of the Company, who need to make some type of revenue for the company. To my knowledge the people that make the DBFZ DLC are dedicated members of Arcsys, as in they specifically work at that company. Same goes for SFV, Tekken 7, and etc. Working on those games is really their main livelihood, and if Development were to stop on the DLC, they be working on something like SF6 of Tekken 8 instead, otherwise they'd be doing nothing for the company
The Smash team is a group of contractors, not a Specialized Team working for a Specific company. It's great that they were able to continue to have the same team from Smash 4 to make Ultimate, since the development was continuous, but they aren't a team that is strictly dedicated to Smash, or a Branch that specifically works on Smash. a lot of the people do work on other projects, usually from Namco since that's who a majority of the people working on Smash come from. if they don't work on Smash, they'd just be working on something else as they go off to the wind
With all that in Mind, That's why I'm not really expecting a Pass 3. But Personally I do suspect that there are plans brewing already for what will come next after Ultimate. I think alot of the rumors about Certain characters, like League, Fortnite, Apex Legends, Master Chief, etc might be them currently talking about them having a presence in Smash someday, but perhaps not in FP2