Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[7NATOR]

A double dip. Like from the same franchise (Elma) or from an already repped company this pass (like Neku)

Or... hear me out... Apex Legends.

Speaking of 7NATOR what did that Apex guy say lately?

I haven't heard from him in awhile. The last thing I remember him saying is that he's unsure that what he's heard was in regards to FP2, but probably future content

Which personally I kind of think, only because with the timing of everything, since Apex only came out February of 2019, that I imagine negotiations would take awhile, and they have to see how popular the game was in the first place as well. The one way I could see Apex being in is if they already had a FPS Moveset template they could re-use for any FPS Character, and if EA were really lax

Personally I think the Apex stuff, along with other things like Master Chief, and perhaps the League rumors suggest planning for Some future Smash content (New game or More DLC) rather than stuff for FP2.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Yeah, there's that too. In the past I'd argue there were more good players to cheer for, especially in WC. But it just hasn't been the same since 2002. Legit: even the Campeonato Brasileiro has become a bore to watch imo.

And now for a 180 in conversation, a long one too:

I think Pyra/Mythra won't be our last first parties.

Here's why: historically, Smash has almost never ended a cycle with a guest. In Brawl, if I'm not mistaken, the last character revealed before launch was R.O.B. and the last character overall was Wolf - Snake was in the very first batch and Sonic was around the halfway point.

In Smash 4 base game, the last reveal before the 3DS version launched was (I think) Bowser Jr. and the last reveal overall was Duck Hunt.

Then came 4 DLC and you might be thinking this is where the pattern breaks with Bayonetta, but... not really. Remember that datamine that revealed Bayo's data two weeks after the ballot was set up? As in, before Corrin had any data in the game? This implies Corrin was the de facto last newcomer for Smash 4, but for whatever reason they were switched around. So we technically ended on Corrin - a first party.

In Ultimate base game, the last reveal before the game launched was Plant (with the theory that it was supposed to be base game and whatnot), and even before that, Incineroar.

In Volume 1, we ended on Byleth after 4 third parties back-to-back.

So here's the theory: if Min Min was our starter; and Pyra and Mythra are the "halfway point" of Volume 2, then that could mean that another first party will be our final reveal instead.

And if I was a betting man, I'd place my bets on Octoling.

Im personally of the opposite opinion. I think Pyra and Mythra are a death knell to first parties.

Going to quickly counteract this point on Corrin, a spot for a new character based on an upcoming Nintendo game was set aside, while Corrin was decided later. Though given this is 2015 Nintendo, the number of viable choices could be counted on one hand.

While Smash might end with a smaller character in the grand scheme of things, Bayo has shown us that that does not automatically mean a first party choice. If anything, I think the clearer thing is that in terms of DLC, Third Parties are king.

Now Smash 4 is almost a worlds away for speculation, but it does show us that this belief is somewhat compatible for Ultimate. Out of the four DLC newcomers we got in Smash 4, three were third party. If we look at FP1, 4/5 of the characters were third party. Even if you lump plant in, 4/6 is still a clear preference towards third parties.

As to why this is the case, my guess is it is easier to license. Who knows. But with 3/4 and 4/5-6 being the stuff in terms of what we got, I think it is safer to bet on a third party being our last character than a first party. I personally struggle to see us getting 4/7 of the characters in this pass being first party.

In terms of what to expect on that front, I would expect one bigger newcomer at E3 and one smaller newcomer later. Granted, Smash can make anything hype, but I think generally big huge western favorite and then something smaller akin to Terry makes sense.

 

[Speed Weed]

There's a tiny possibility that they might monkey's paw in Mathew to celebrate a Golden Sun revival if they indeed intend to revive the series,

Wouldn't it just be Isaac? I don't see them putting that much stock in ATs for this one, considering Isaac's a thousand times more popular and celebrated of a character than Matthew and there's nothing Matthew can do that he can't

Also the fact that I personally think a remake of the first game or first two games is more likely to start off a revival of the series than an outright GS4

 

[StrawHatX]

What if the last character was Bandana Dee?

I’d be fine with that.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Wouldn't it just be Isaac? I don't see them putting that much stock in ATs for this one, considering Isaac's a thousand times more popular and celebrated of a character than Matthew and there's nothing Matthew can do that he can't

Also the fact that I personally think a remake of the first game or first two games is more likely to start off a revival of the series than an outright GS4

I just have a feeling that if they want a series that already has its main character as an Assist Trophy or Mii Costume, they're gonna give that character the boot in favor of the next best thing regardless of how dumb the decision is.

 

[Super Flygon]

I could see us getting 1 more first party character, but I don't see it being Octoling. Octoling would make more sense as an echo fighter, so I could see Octoling being added as part of a hypothetical echo pass.

Wouldn't mind Bandana Dee, especially since Kirby's 30th anniversary is next year, although there are always plenty of anniversaries....

 

[kaithehedgefox]

Hopefully Hayabusa and Doom Slayer still end up happening regardless.

That leak has just been revealed to be false. I predict that the final 2 DLC fighters will be Ryu (Ninja Gaiden) and an indie rep because Yuri (Fatal Frame) and Shovel Knight are trapped in the assist trophy collection.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Im personally of the opposite opinion. I think Pyra and Mythra are a death knell to first parties.

Going to quickly counteract this point on Corrin, a spot for a new character based on an upcoming Nintendo game was set aside, while Corrin was decided later. Though given this is 2015 Nintendo, the number of viable choices could be counted on one hand.

While Smash might end with a smaller character in the grand scheme of things, Bayo has shown us that that does not automatically mean a first party choice. If anything, I think the clearer thing is that in terms of DLC, Third Parties are king.

Now Smash 4 is almost a worlds away for speculation, but it does show us that this belief is somewhat compatible for Ultimate. Out of the four DLC newcomers we got in Smash 4, three were third party. If we look at FP1, 4/5 of the characters were third party. Even if you lump plant in, 4/6 is still a clear preference towards third parties.

As to why this is the case, my guess is it is easier to license. Who knows. But with 3/4 and 4/5-6 being the stuff in terms of what we got, I think it is safer to bet on a third party being our last character than a first party. I personally struggle to see us getting 4/7 of the characters in this pass being first party.

In terms of what to expect on that front, I would expect one bigger newcomer at E3 and one smaller newcomer later. Granted, Smash can make anything hype, but I think generally big huge western favorite and then something smaller akin to Terry makes sense.

To be completely fair, if there's any time this theory should break, it's the current cycle. Balancing aside, Bayo's response was favorable as the "last presented character", and no doubt Nintendo is aware of that.

However, a small counterpoint: why do you struggle seeing a 4/7 split? If you count the returning veterans in Smash 4 DLC, we actually had more first than third parties.

Even if we're talking about all-new picks, it doesn't seem that unreasonable. A 4/7 split still greatly favors third parties, after all.

There may be less viable options now, but we're literally talking about just one more here (and not both remaining picks). Seems feasible enough.

 

[7NATOR]

That leak has just been revealed to be false. I predict that the final 2 DLC fighters will be Ryu (Ninja Gaiden) and an indie rep because Yuri (Fatal Frame) and Shovel Knight are trapped in the assist trophy collection.

Yuri isn't Indie, but I do see the logic because of Shovel Knight

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Wouldn't it just be Isaac? I don't see them putting that much stock in ATs for this one, considering Isaac's a thousand times more popular and celebrated of a character than Matthew and there's nothing Matthew can do that he can't

Also the fact that I personally think a remake of the first game or first two games is more likely to start off a revival of the series than an outright GS4

I think you're right, but Matthew's design is better, imo, so I wouldn't be upset personally.

There's also a tiny chance Golden Sun could get a Final Fantasy treatment on its return and have a new world entirely. Probably not, but it's another way they could avoid alienating new people.

 

[SharkLord]

Im personally of the opposite opinion. I think Pyra and Mythra are a death knell to first parties.

Going to quickly counteract this point on Corrin, a spot for a new character based on an upcoming Nintendo game was set aside, while Corrin was decided later. Though given this is 2015 Nintendo, the number of viable choices could be counted on one hand.

While Smash might end with a smaller character in the grand scheme of things, Bayo has shown us that that does not automatically mean a first party choice. If anything, I think the clearer thing is that in terms of DLC, Third Parties are king.

Now Smash 4 is almost a worlds away for speculation, but it does show us that this belief is somewhat compatible for Ultimate. Out of the four DLC newcomers we got in Smash 4, three were third party. If we look at FP1, 4/5 of the characters were third party. Even if you lump plant in, 4/6 is still a clear preference towards third parties.

As to why this is the case, my guess is it is easier to license. Who knows. But with 3/4 and 4/5-6 being the stuff in terms of what we got, I think it is safer to bet on a third party being our last character than a first party. I personally struggle to see us getting 4/7 of the characters in this pass being first party.

In terms of what to expect on that front, I would expect one bigger newcomer at E3 and one smaller newcomer later. Granted, Smash can make anything hype, but I think generally big huge western favorite and then something smaller akin to Terry makes sense.

To be completely fair, if there's any time this theory should break, it's the current cycle. Balancing aside, Bayo's response was favorable as the "last presented character", and no doubt Nintendo is aware of that.

However, a small counterpoint: why do you struggle seeing a 4/7 split? If you count the returning veterans in Smash 4 DLC, we actually had more first than third parties.

Even if we're talking about all-new picks, it doesn't seem that unreasonable. A 4/7 split still greatly favors third parties, after all.

There may be less viable options now, but we're literally talking about just one more here (and not both remaining picks). Seems feasible enough.

Might just be me not reading in properly, but where does the 4/7 come in? It'd be an even 3/6 for FP2, and 5/12 for every DLC fighter. Not sure where the 4/7 comes from.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Might just be me not reading in properly, but where does the 4/7 come in? It'd be an even 3/6 for FP2, and 5/12 for every DLC fighter. Not sure where the 4/7 comes from.

I think it's 4 first party, 7 third party.

 

[SneakyLink]

Might just be me not reading in properly, but where does the 4/7 come in? It'd be an even 3/6 for FP2, and 5/12 for every DLC fighter. Not sure where the 4/7 comes from.

The 4/7 is because Mythra is considered her own character (as evidenced by the fighter numbers)

So assuming we get a first party and a third party as our final two picks it would be 4/7 in favor of first parties.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Might just be me not reading in properly, but where does the 4/7 come in? It'd be an even 3/6 for FP2, and 5/12 for every DLC fighter. Not sure where the 4/7 comes from.

I think it's 4 first party, 7 third party.

I think it's the split of Challenger Packs, no? 4 first party and 7 third party for a total of 11.

 

[SharkLord]

The 4/7 is because Mythra is considered her own character (as evidenced by the fighter numbers)

So assuming we get a first party and a third party as our final two picks it would be 4/7 in favor of first parties.

Ah, I suppose that makes sense. Still, I don't think the split would be factored into the decision process too much. They look to share at least some normals, albeit with different frame data, and their main gimmick is switching between each other. I think they would just be considered one fighter in the context of FP2.

 

[Opossum]

What if the last character was Bandana Dee?

Underwhelmed but content. I'd be sad it wasn't someone significantly cooler, but at that point I really can't complain. Just a big old "eh that's kinda lame but whatever."

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Ah, I suppose that makes sense. Still, I don't think the split would be factored into the decision process too much. They look to share at least some normals, albeit with different frame data, and their main gimmick is switching between each other. I think they would just be considered one fighter in the context of FP2.

They're considered a 2 for 1...I dunno what that means in terms of this argument, but it's probably the most accurate.

EDIT: I want to make that one joke, but at the same time I also really don't.

 

[Nekoo]

I have this light feeling that we won't be getting anymore first party, I think that maybe this time Sakurai/Nintendo revisited their schedules to not have another Corrin/Byleth Accident.
One first party, two third party, One(two) first party and two third party to end the pass.


Also I'm still super happy that Pyra and Mythra are in! AYAYAYA! You go girls! I rewatched the trailers and they seems a blast to play!

 

[Ivander]

What if the last character was Bandana Dee?

Content. Have some more preferred characters, but honestly, not a bad choice.

 

[SharkLord]

What if the last character was Bandana Dee?

Pretty happy. Kirby was the %$#@ back in the day, and while I'm not at the peak of my Kirby phase anymore, content from the series would still make me happy and it would be a nice bookend to have my most wanted from the base game era come back as the final fighter.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think Bandana Waddle Dee would get a ton of flak for being the last character. Probably not as much as Byleth, but I imagine he'd be pretty up there.

 

[Bowser D.X]

Pyra and Mythra aren't wearing Bikini's though, so it would mostly just be adjusting the designs slightly to make it work for CERO.

If Shulk wearing nothing but tight swim trunks can get in, there's really no reason not to include their swimsuit alts. Good boys and girls be damned.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

It’s interesting to think that it took until Pyra and Mythra for us to get commonly requested characters as first-party newcomer DLC.

 

[Firox]

A double dip. Like from the same franchise (Elma) or from an already repped company this pass (like Neku)

Or... hear me out... Apex Legends.

Speaking of 7NATOR what did that Apex guy say lately?

I gotta say, you guys have some pretty good troll pick candidates:

-Tingle
-Cat Mario
-Euden

I'd have to agree with any of these. As for something like Fortnite or Apex Legends, I think anything that panders to the modern pop culture of that ilk would be pretty salt inducing. Could you imagine the last thing we see from the DLC being Jonesy doing the Floss?

 

[SirBillyBob]

Since we were talking about Splatoon a bit ago, this image really shows much Nintendo invests in this series:

I remember when I first saw the gameplay demo all those years ago. Definitely would not be surprised to see it get another fighter in Smash eventually.

 

[RoboFist]

My guess is that if there is a Nintendo character, it's going to be a pick similar to Byleth. With this in mind, it's likely something that happened in this Nintendo Direct, which means no Kirby. Instead, we're looking at:

• Famicom Detective Club: The Missing Heir
• Famicom Detective Club: The Girl Who Stands Behind
• Mario Golf: Super Rush
• Miitopia
• Animal Crossing: New Horizons
• Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity
• The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword
• Splatoon 3

As a revival, the Famicom Detective Club games sound like a decent bet, but there's also not really any sort of indication that they specifically want it to flourish, so I wouldn't put many chips in that corner.

You have no idea how much I would love if Sakurai wrapped up production on Ultimate by saying "There, I did the best I could with the insane amount of fan requests you've spent the past 4 years throwing my way. But I've been waiting since Melee to put Ayumi Tachibana on the roster, so dammit I'm putting Ayumi Tachibana on the roster!"

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I think Bandana Waddle Dee would get a ton of flak for being the last character. Probably not as much as Byleth, but I imagine he'd be pretty up there.

Up there? Absolutely not. Unlike Byleth, BanDee was a commonly requested character in addition to coming from a franchise nobody complained was overrepresented which makes all the difference. The only sizeable group people who would complain about him are the “Nintendo characters aren’t hype” which would be a vocal minority.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Up there? Absolutely not. Unlike Byleth, BanDee was a commonly requested character in addition to coming from a franchise nobody complained was overrepresented which makes all the difference. The only sizeable group people who would complain about him are the “Nintendo characters aren’t hype” which would be a vocal minority.

Well if he is the last character than I hope you're right.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Might just be me not reading in properly, but where does the 4/7 come in? It'd be an even 3/6 for FP2, and 5/12 for every DLC fighter. Not sure where the 4/7 comes from.

Pyra and Mythra are 79-80 on the website. So they technically make it 7 characters this pass.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Well if he is the last character than I hope you're right.

He’d get the same level of hate as Bayonetta at worst and even then there is a significant difference in context that might benefit BanDee.

 

[ZelDan]

My thoughts on first parties in DLC BEFORE Pyra/Mythra was:

-We will probably get 1 more first party character (and I was right, go figure)
-2 more first parties is possible, but I'm not exactly super confident on it.
-I definitely don't see all 3 being first party

So, I could see one of the last 2 characters being first party, but I wouldn't really bet on it if I were a betting man.

 

[Jocario Zero]

My overall thoughts:

-The direct was pretty good. A new Mario Golf and Splatoon where some nice surprises. I'm currently getting into Borderlands, so Tales from the Borderlands
got my interest (just finished BL2 and will get to the Pre-Sequel sometime after i finished Persona 5 Strikers).
-ngl i was hoping for the Xenoblade X-port. Our time will come fellow B.L.A.D.E.s...
-Pyra and Mythra as a standalone fighter without Rex was something i was never expecting but i gladly take it. Yeah, i would've preferred Elma but im
100% ok with this.
-This is the first time that Pyra is directly playable. Thats one thing i love about smash: You can play as characters that you couldn't play otherwise
(like Ganondorf and Sheik weren't playable in a Zelda game until Hyrule Warriors).
-"Oh hey, were these guys planning on winning? Gee, I feel kind of bad now." Mythra, please never change.
-The new stage is exactly what i wanted for a new Xenoblade stage. It's much more simpler than Gaur-Plains (not a fan of its tiny platforms) +
you get cameos from the other party members!
-The reference to Xexnoblade 2s challenge mode at the end was great. They brought Adam Howden back and this time he doesn't whisper his dialogue unlike
in Future Connected (seriously, what was that all about?)

Spoiler: and Mario's reaction when he realizes that he doesn't have to die for once:

 

[RileyXY1]

I could see us getting 1 more first party character, but I don't see it being Octoling. Octoling would make more sense as an echo fighter, so I could see Octoling being added as part of a hypothetical echo pass.

Wouldn't mind Bandana Dee, especially since Kirby's 30th anniversary is next year, although there are always plenty of anniversaries....

Yeah. The Octolings play similarly to the Inklings in the Splatoon series so I can only see them getting in as a clone.

 

[SharkLord]

He’d get the same level of hate as Bayonetta at worst and even then there is a significant difference in context that might benefit BanDee.

Yeah, he'd be divisive at worst. There's the Hat Goomba argument and the last character status putting a target on his back, but he's also highly requested and has a strong support base by his side. Not an exact example, obviously, but SourceGaming's 2019 Mega Poll had him place 2nd after Banjo, and last year's poll had him in 9th, the highest-ranking first-party in both scenarios and the only one in the top ten for the latter. For every detractor, there would be at least four supporters.

On that note, SourceGaming's gonna do that poll again this year, right? Wonder how that's gonna turn out. Man, I remember when the results first rolled in...

 

[Shado-will]

Wouldn't it just be Isaac? I don't see them putting that much stock in ATs for this one, considering Isaac's a thousand times more popular and celebrated of a character than Matthew and there's nothing Matthew can do that he can't

Also the fact that I personally think a remake of the first game or first two games is more likely to start off a revival of the series than an outright GS4

I think that it could go both ways. If they do a remake, then Issac would definitely be more likely as a Golden Sun rep. But if they do GS4, Matthew would probably be the one. If Isaac does get in, I think that it would be fairly easy to replace Isaac's AT with a Matthew AT. I'm still not predicting a GS character at all though.

 

[RoboFist]

Up there? Absolutely not. Unlike Byleth, BanDee was a commonly requested character in addition to coming from a franchise nobody complained was overrepresented which makes all the difference. The only sizeable group people who would complain about him are the “Nintendo characters aren’t hype” which would be a vocal minority.

Nah, you forget about that short little time frame between Incineroar/Ken/Plant's reveal and Joker's reveal, a ton of people were vocally enthusiastic about a 3 Houses rep. It wasn't until Joker changed everything we thought we knew about the DLC that people stopped hoping for that.

The same would happen with BWD. Especially if they were announced last...honestly, anyone who is announced last will get met with unwarranted hate. That's just how the fanbase works, it's best to just accept that now haha.

 

[SNEKeater]

I don't think another first party character is out of the question, and if it's the case, it doesn't have to be the last character. I mean, I barely care for Waluigi but he would be a fitting E3 reveal, for example.

At this point I'd expect 1 more first party character, the thing is, I don't know which one. Rex was one of the few realizable first party options in my eyes, and well, we just got a XC2 rep. After that, I could see Waluigi happenning. Maybe Bandana Dee. Beyond that? Not sure at the moment. Maybe there's some 2021 first party games yet to be unveiled (I don't want to think that Pokémon is the only thing Nintendo has to offer for the second half of this year, otherwise I'd be completely disappointed with Nintendo) and we'll learn about those games in the next big Direct, which I guess will take place around June/E3 season.

In that case I could see the last character being tied or related to one of those mysterious games, but this is just me spitballing.

Obviously nothing stops Nintendo from adding a first party character that isn't getting a new game or has gotten a new game in the past few years. But seeing all the DLC first party fighters we got so far, I'm still not really hopeful for the likes of Dixie, Isaac and company.

 

[Perkilator]

Up there? Absolutely not. Unlike Byleth, BanDee was a commonly requested character in addition to coming from a franchise nobody complained was overrepresented which makes all the difference. The only sizeable group people who would complain about him are the “Nintendo characters aren’t hype” which would be a vocal minority.

Don't forget the "hat Goomba" crowd.

 

[Pillow]

Up there? Absolutely not. Unlike Byleth, BanDee was a commonly requested character in addition to coming from a franchise nobody complained was overrepresented which makes all the difference. The only sizeable group people who would complain about him are the “Nintendo characters aren’t hype” which would be a vocal minority.

You're vastly overrating Bandana Dee's popularity. His situation is the reverse of what you claim, he's mostly popular on dedicated fan sites like here and is less popular among the general Smash community. The reception would be mixed, at best.

However, a small counterpoint: why do you struggle seeing a 4/7 split? If you count the returning veterans in Smash 4 DLC, we actually had more first than third parties.

Even if we're talking about all-new picks, it doesn't seem that unreasonable. A 4/7 split still greatly favors third parties, after all.

There may be less viable options now, but we're literally talking about just one more here (and not both remaining picks). Seems feasible enough.

There's just not many big 1st party characters Nintendo would want to push for in Smash at this point. The most feasible options are, in my opinion, an 8th gen pokemon (which would have a very negative reception) and Howard from Astral Chain (since Nintendo seems to like pushing Switch IP's).

 

[Simplythe1]

Just came here to say goodbye to everyone see you all in Smash 6 it was nice talking to at least the majority of you and your all awesome