Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[MarioRaccoon]

The problem with Smash rosters is that if you cut characters, there is always gonna fans who says “dammit Sakurai, you cut my main fighter!!”.

Thats why the first thing they did this time was to return every previous fighter back, so nobody can complain about it.

And it will happen next time unless there is a huge change in mechanics or something like that.

Thats why we need to promote Ultimate Deluxe

But also, the idea of Ultimate Deluxe is not 100% the best as Smash sales will likely reach a saturation point sometime some. The game has sold +24 million copies until end june. Thats insane for a single game on a single platafform. It will end up selling +30 millions, mora than double of Smash 4 3DS + WiiU versions. So the question is, how much it can sell? Can it go for 40 million?.

In addition, there is japanese market sales, there, up to end march, Smash Ultimate is the 9th best selling game with 5.41 millions. It will likely pass the 6 million mark (that is something astonishing there, would be the 6th best selling game there). But again, how much it can sell after? 7 million?

 

[Garteam]

I may be biased, but I think the character whose treatment in Ultimate baffles me the most is Bandana Waddle Dee. It's odd that such a popular request got literally nothing beyond his spirit. No assist trophy, no Mii hat based on the Streetpass one, not even a spirit battle, literally just the JPG.

It doesn't give me high hopes for Smash 6, but I'm really hoping to be wrong about that.

 

[Shroob]

I may be biased, but I think the character whose treatment in Ultimate baffles me the most is Bandana Waddle Dee. It's odd that such a popular request got literally nothing beyond his spirit. No assist trophy, no Mii hat based on the Streetpass one, not even a spirit battle, literally just the JPG.

It doesn't give me high hopes for Smash 6, but I'm really hoping to be wrong about that.

Is it really that strange though?


Like, outside of Masked Dedede and Hyper Sword, how many modern Kirby things through characters and stages are there?

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I have friends who spin theories about it even now, and the biggest one I hear at all is that if Deluxe is real Cacomallow still can be due to timing and work on an enhanced port having to start early enough for the Switch Pro

CACOMALLOW STILL REAL

Speculation may die, but Cacomallow will forever live on.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

My reading level isn’t nearly high enough to get through the size of a few of these replies.

I’ve always been fairly neutral on Geno. I haven’t played SMRPG (though I definitely should given how much I love Paper Mario). Hes got a pretty cool design and probably would have a fun moveset.

It was sad to see his Mii not get any changes this time around. But hey, if both of the FF characters return hes back to being a frontrunner for Square Reps. Just hope we can get through it without too much of the vitriol that happened this time.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

I have friends who spin theories about it even now, and the biggest one I hear at all is that if Deluxe is real Cacomallow still can be due to timing and work on an enhanced port having to start early enough for the Switch Pro

Anyone that still talks about a switch pro shouldnt be listened to

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Better Mii Costumes faces in general would be nice for the next game. Geno's the big example, but a little work on Mii Dante would have gone a long way.

 

[ForsakenM]

Just took a shower and am getting ready to leave, but it's true that showers can help open your thought process.

I just realized that all the Geno Drama stems from typical internet anonymity and believing in the illusion or the stereotypes given.

The stereotypes were as follows:

1. Geno fans are crazy and believe every leak with Geno in it and will harass you if you talk realistically about his chances.
2. The Newcomer Thread hates Geno fans because they don't understand his real chances and think we are a cult.

This Newcomer stereotype then spread to other website who actually fit into the stereotype heavily, and thus things spiraled out of control. However, when we were left alone and mostly ignored, everything seemed pretty alright.

It's funny how people thought all Geno fans were gullible. It felt like we had a 75%-25% split on the Grinch Leak, of which I swore up and down it wasn't real despite it having Geno in it. 95% of the Geno thread agreed to ignore 4chan leaks even if they contained Geno and frequently there were complaints whenever they were brought up, and Sassy Geno and the like were often pointed out to be fake because of how odd they looked and the quality of the image.

I think the only two that got traction were the leak of the Geno model someone was working on (which I think had a split in belief as well) and Cacomallow which was just too big to ignore. Most of us just waited for real Smash news and promoted Sakurai's interview and his costume not coming with DQ as big deals while talking about his appeal in Brawl days, and hanging onto the words of proven leakers until they were no longer credible.

I know now that you guys didn't hate me because I wanted Geno, you were just sick of him being brought up so much and seeing the same arguments all the time, but at the time it didn't register that way. Who knows, maybe you guys did and maybe still do, but I have to say it's been much more civil in here even before Sora's reveal.

My reading level isn’t nearly high enough to get through the size of a few of these replies.

I’ve always been fairly neutral on Geno. I haven’t played SMRPG (though I definitely should given how much I love Paper Mario). Hes got a pretty cool design and probably would have a fun moveset.

It was sad to see his Mii not get any changes this time around. But hey, if both of the FF characters return hes back to being a frontrunner for Square Reps. Just hope we can get through it without too much of the vitriol that happened this time.

I think people will bring up the misconceptions I mentioned about Geno fans and try to flame them again, but I feel like support won't be as big because of the burn out with Sephiroth.

Anyone that still talks about a switch pro shouldnt be listened to

For what particular reason would you say that?

Is it because of the OLED, or that Nintendo said there were not plans for other consoles.

For one, remember they said that BEFORE the OLED, and the OLED is real. If they lied about the OLED, why would they be honest about a Switch Pro before they are ready to reveal it?

Secondly, we already have Nintendo and other companies trying to deny that they are working on 4K games for Nintendo despite having evidence that they are. Seems fishy to me.

Thirdly, COVID delaying getting pieces for hardware doesn't mean that Nintendo would cancel plans to make a new console. Things going on with Nvidia and not being able to get certain product doesn't mean you cancel plans for a new console, you simply look elsewhere.

Fourthly, Switch's biggest hang up is that it's behind other modern consoles now. It would be foolish to not bring it up closer to the competition while the iron is still hot and people have games they want to buy from you. Just imagine 3D Kirby, Bayo 3, BOTW2 or maybe a Mario Odyssey sequel on a 4K-capable Switch!

Still blows me away that in 8 days, it'll be Sora time.

I know right?

Like, is any of this for real, or not?

 

[Garteam]

Is it really that strange though?


Like, outside of Masked Dedede and Hyper Sword, how many modern Kirby things through characters and stages are there?

I mean, Smash's general aversion to all things modern Kirby with the exception of final smashes is itself bizarre, but giving Bandana Waddle Dee the absolute bare minimum is an especially bizarre subset of that when you consider all the effort Sakurai went make sure even popular requests that didn't make the roster had some representation.

 

[CosmicQuark]

The problem with Smash rosters is that if you cut characters, there is always gonna fans who says “dammit Sakurai, you cut my main fighter!!”.

Thats why the first thing they did this time was to return every previous fighter back, so nobody can complain about it.

And it will happen next time unless there is a huge change in mechanics or something like that.

Thats why we need to promote Ultimate Deluxe

But also, the idea of Ultimate Deluxe is not 100% the best as Smash sales will likely reach a saturation point sometime some. The game has sold +24 million copies until end june. Thats insane for a single game on a single platafform. It will end up selling +30 millions, mora than double of Smash 4 3DS + WiiU versions. So the question is, how much it can sell? Can it go for 40 million?.

In addition, there is japanese market sales, there, up to end march, Smash Ultimate is the 9th best selling game with 5.41 millions. It will likely pass the 6 million mark (that is something astonishing there, would be the 6th best selling game there). But again, how much it can sell after? 7 million?

While I want an Ultimate Deluxe (given the image project I'm still working on ha), it suffers a similar problem with a new game--still have to relicense all of those third party characters, even if it's just a port. The benefit of being a port is they don't have to spend as much time with all the other stuff, though, most of Ultimate's budget probably went into licensing and trailers to begin with.

And given the finality of Sora's reveal--I can't imagine them going back to it. It would almost seem like a lie (though, one I would personally forgive because I'd rather have more characters in Ultimate). Wish this wasn't the direction they went, but given they did, it was the best way to end it. I can't see myself playing the next game, regardless if it fixes all the problems with Ultimate. To me, Smash is the roster, more of a celebration of gaming than it is a fighting game, and you can't top this one.

 

[Geno Boost]

Imagine Ankha being the 3rd Animal crossing rep in the next smash game and it was due to her recent popularity that would be sus

 

[Shroob]

Imagine Ankha being the 3rd Animal crossing rep in the next smash game and it was due to her recent popularity that would be sus

Bottom text

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Something I just thought of, while Licensing was certainly one of if not the biggest reason of why “Everyone Is Here!” was a nightmare to make happen. A hypothetical port can focus almost exclusively on getting those characters back.

Instead of paying tons of money to develop a system of combat, graphics engine, balancing, remastering old stages, etc. etc.
The budget can instead be put towards paying off Third Parties to get these characters to return.

Though, Ports normally get a fraction of the budget of actual games, so that still might not be enough.

 

[Opossum]

Something I just thought of, while Licensing was certainly one of if not the biggest reason of why “Everyone Is Here!” was a nightmare to make happen. A hypothetical port can focus almost exclusively on getting those characters back.

Instead of paying tons of money to develop a system of combat, graphics engine, balancing, remastering old stages, etc. etc.
The budget can instead be put towards paying off Third Parties to get these characters to return.

Though, Ports normally get a fraction of the budget of actual games, so that still might not be enough.

Yeah, that's the main thing. The reason ports are a thing is to make easy money for a company that believes consumers will buy the product again, but at a fraction of the cost for the developers. So when you need to pay for all the licensing again it pretty much defeats the entire purpose of porting from a business perspective.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Can it go for 40 million?.

Unless the Switch's successor somehow outsells the Switch, no.

Wait nevermind misunderstood the question. I still think 40 million is a bit too ridiculous, and you're better off sticking to 30.

 

[N3ON]

I may be biased, but I think the character whose treatment in Ultimate baffles me the most is Bandana Waddle Dee. It's odd that such a popular request got literally nothing beyond his spirit. No assist trophy, no Mii hat based on the Streetpass one, not even a spirit battle, literally just the JPG.

It doesn't give me high hopes for Smash 6, but I'm really hoping to be wrong about that.

It's the Sakurai bias

The real and only Sakurai bias

Against Kirby stuff he didn't do

 

[Guynamednelson]

Yeah, that's the main thing. The reason ports are a thing is to make easy money for a company that believes consumers will buy the product again, but at a fraction of the cost for the developers. So when you need to pay for all the licensing again it pretty much defeats the entire purpose of porting from a business perspective.

For example, GTAV for PS5 is shaping up to be an imperfect port due to music licensing. The recent Tuners update includes the removal of the song "Can't Hold Back Your Lovin'" by Kano, and I imagine that's just the start.

 

[CosmicQuark]

Going back through my history, some major highs and major lows, I wanted to look back at my hopes and predictions. Don't think I can quote from those threads, though.

My base game predictions, which was my idea of realistic at the time, basing it on the August Direct. I had no clue of the carnage to follow.

• September Nintendo Direct, featuring Banana Waddle Dee, Dixie Kong and Isabelle.
• October Japanese Nintendo Direct featuring Isaac.
• November Smash Direct featuring Banjo & Kazooie, Shadow, Ken, and Geno.

And here's my DLC hopes and predictions before FP1:

Here are my predictions and hopes for DLC, because there's a gigantic chasm in between them.

Hopes:
1. Sora
2. Banjo & Kazooie
3. Joker
4. Agumon
5. Crash Bandicoot

Predictions:
1. Sora
2. Edelgard
3. Heihachi
4. Steve
5. Doom Guy

****, I hope there are seasons.

Oddly enough, my hopes were more predictive than my predictions.

And lastly I saw this image I responded to:

Spoiler

Sakurai cheated, he used 24 points (counting one of a double character as half, and a character from the same series as 1pt).

 

[PeridotGX]

have you seen this?

Announcement - The Future of Ultimate Newcomer Speculation

Denizens of Smash Ultimate Newcomer Speculation It's been a wild ride hasn't it? Ultimate raised the bar higher than ever before, fulfilling dreams as well as crushing them. We laughed, we cried, some of y'all flamed each other for absolutely no reason and got warnings/bans from the mods. Wait...

smashboards.com

we're gonna be moving soon

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

have you seen this?

Announcement - The Future of Ultimate Newcomer Speculation

Denizens of Smash Ultimate Newcomer Speculation It's been a wild ride hasn't it? Ultimate raised the bar higher than ever before, fulfilling dreams as well as crushing them. We laughed, we cried, some of y'all flamed each other for absolutely no reason and got warnings/bans from the mods. Wait...

smashboards.com

we're gonna be moving soon

I can't believe NonSpecificGuy is taking away our home.

This is so sad ;(

 

[chocolatejr9]

have you seen this?

Announcement - The Future of Ultimate Newcomer Speculation

Denizens of Smash Ultimate Newcomer Speculation It's been a wild ride hasn't it? Ultimate raised the bar higher than ever before, fulfilling dreams as well as crushing them. We laughed, we cried, some of y'all flamed each other for absolutely no reason and got warnings/bans from the mods. Wait...

smashboards.com

we're gonna be moving soon

Honestly, once this place closes down, I'll probably leave the site. Don't know if I'll be back whenever the next game is announced, but I think some of us need a break from Smash just as much as Sakurai does...

 

[PeridotGX]

Honestly, once this place closes down, I'll probably leave the site. Don't know if I'll be back whenever the next game is announced, but I think some of us need a break from Smash just as much as Sakurai does...

i'm not. i have a little something we like to call a "chronic addiction to speculating who will be in smash".

 

[BlazGreen]

I'm gonna make one post on the next Smash game speculation thread and then in a few years if I haven't completely moved on from Nintendo/gaming in general I'll come back to the thread and laugh at how right/wrong I was.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Yeah, that's the main thing. The reason ports are a thing is to make easy money for a company that believes consumers will buy the product again, but at a fraction of the cost for the developers. So when you need to pay for all the licensing again it pretty much defeats the entire purpose of porting from a business perspective.

This is why I'm convinced if we do get Ultimate on the next console it's in the form of backwards compatibility with current Switch titles, maybe a few bells and whistles bonuses (not characters or even probably stages) when playing on the next system. It fills the gap till the next Smash title is out and basically avoids the nightmare of having to pay for all those third parties again.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Honestly, once this place closes down, I'll probably leave the site. Don't know if I'll be back whenever the next game is announced, but I think some of us need a break from Smash just as much as Sakurai does...

I’ll probably just spend less time than usual here. Usually just the social thread and DMing some buds

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I mostly won't really be active, I guess? Only real place I hang out. If my only thread(as the Brian one will be defunct soon) gets more posts, sure, but otherwise.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Yall will be getting another speculation thread, yall will be ok. Im more worried about how busy the gen social might get

 

[Shroob]

The worst part is us SMT peeps are excited for SMTV coming out soon and have been sharing the daily video uploads.


And now that's just gonna be


Closed

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

I’ve only really spent my time on the boards here. Probably gonna move over to the new game thread and then Speculate till I burn out on no news, then take some breaks and return periodically till Smash 6/Ultimate DX.

 

[PeridotGX]

The first posts in the Smash Ultimate speculation thread were about how Spring Man might not be the ARMS rep.

be very careful with what we discuss in the next thread.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Looks like speculation is coming to an end on the 21st. It's been a wild ride guys.

Then onto next game it'll be.

 

[ForsakenM]

I'm going to hold onto my big Deluxe post until that thread exists. This is gonna be a doozy.

Also people aren't bringing up preparation. Someone else on this thread just brought it up, myabe it was pupNapoleon ? It's clear that Sakurai negotiated for characters to show up in Ultimate from Smash 4 ahead of time, so why wouldn't he just do the same here?

If Deluxe really is a thing, it has to be approved of already. This means that for each character negotiation, you would have to also agree for them to be in the next game. I would think Sakurai would get that out of the way now rather than have to go back later and change things.

This means that Deluxe really wouldn't have to worry about the money for these characters as it's already been spent.

 

[Strong Badam]

The worst part is us SMT peeps are excited for SMTV coming out soon and have been sharing the daily video uploads.


And now that's just gonna be


Closed

I'd recommend making a thread about SMTV in the NintenZone forum, the intended place to discuss upcoming Nintendo-exclusive games on the site.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Well, we finally have a concrete date for when this subforum closes. It's been a wild ride speculating with you guys, with both ups and downs.

I'll be popping in here a couple more times before the 21st so I won't write a definitive goodbye message yet, but I thought I'd write a little semi-farewell post marking the beginning of the end at least.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

If I follow you you can reach out to me via dm anytime

I just set DMs to ppl I follow only for privacy purposes

you can also get my discord on my profile page, and other social media in my signature

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Okay question before Ultimate Spec ends:

Does anyone remember there being a "reveal trailer" for Nikki from Swapnote except it was just her as a Mii Swordfighter? It was mostly all in-engine and done lightheartedly. I think it was for Smash 4. I swear this is a thing but maybe it's just my mind making things up.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

You'll see me still on the Social thread for sure.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

y'all why are we doomposting when we have another 11 days?

why not start the doomposting when Sora comes out and we have like 3 days left? Is this just gonna be the next 11 days

 

[Shroob]

y'all why are we doomposting when we have another 11 days?

why not start the doomposting when Sora comes out and we have like 3 days left? Is this just gonna be the next 11 days

11 days left?
Sora?

Bro wake up it's October 4th, they're revealing flame chungus in tomorrow's Final Smash Presentation

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

y'all why are we doomposting when we have another 11 days?

why not start the doomposting when Sora comes out and we have like 3 days left? Is this just gonna be the next 11 days

If nothing else you'd think people would be Doomposting after the character from Doom is in Smash.