Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Opossum]

Wouldn't the credit taking post be a confirmation that it's fake though? I suppose that fact also doesn't change the possibility of it being true though...


How is people saying "fake leak is fake" a setup for disappointment?


Bring up monkeys and typewriters all you want, I still think the probability is being given way less credit than it deserves.

The thing is it wasn't a 1/365 chance. They only really had three months to work with, not the whole year. And the further you get to December the less likely it becomes, as that'd be too long. Then you take out days that usually don't have Smash presentations. So it really wasn't impressive at all that somewhere, someone guessed a date correctly.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Ackshually, since the original "leak" was posted in July, the chance of someone leaking a release date for Sora was more like 1 in 358/2 thank you very much

 

[Sucumbio]

I will be the first to admit I totally started ignoring Sega after Genesis died. I kept an eye on the Dreamcast for awhile but basically Sony took over my attention. So when considering a new Sega rep, yes I actually just googled "most popular Sega Characters" which cranked out a list of Sonic characters at the top. But I will absolutely support a Sega rep even if it's not from Sonic. Like a Virtua Fighter rep

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

OK sure, not 1/365, but there is still nothing you can say that can make guessing the day on the dot not sound super impressive because it is.

 

[WahHahaha]

So is the Sora "leak" officially dead now?

I hope so.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

So is the Sora "leak" officially dead now?

I hope so.

No but nobody believed it anyway so it doesn't really matter.

 

[WahHahaha]

No but nobody believed it anyway so it doesn't really matter.

With how much it's been discussed, even outside of this board I sincerely doubt that.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

One week left until its all over.

This means that the reveal is happening next week. This time for real though.

 

[Wunderwaft]

That Smash Bros JP twitter account really is hyping up the final presentation by going over the reveals of the game chronologically from the beginning. It makes me wonder if the last character in question is big enough to match up to the expectations.



It won't

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

With how much it's been discussed, even outside of this board I sincerely doubt that.

Oh, well. I dunno what goes on outside these boards.

Here though, people just bring up leaks out of sheer boredom, and it's pretty much just Theguy123 that brings up this one in particular.

 

[Cosmic77]

After three years of fake leaks, I've automatically been more skeptical of the leaks that mention fan favorites. That's ironic, considering how we finally got a lot of popular requests in Ultimate, but man, I've lost count of how many times I've seen Geno, Master Chief, and Sora thrown around. I feel like I remember seeing a generic "Crash might be confirmed as the next fighter," article with just about every DLC character.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

That Smash Bros JP twitter account really is hyping up the final presentation by going over the reveals of the game chronologically from the beginning. It makes me wonder if the last character in question is big enough to match up to the expectations.



It won't

I know you said it won't in minor, struck-through text, but no way the final fighter lives up to expectations.

• The final fighter for base Smash 4 was Shulk, which, while personally hype to me, doesn't match up to Mega Man or Pac-Man
• The final fighter for Smash 4 DLC was Bayonetta, though Corrin is more memorable for opening up the final presentation because...it's Corrin.
• The final fighter for base Ultimate was Ken and Incineroar or Piranha Plant. Yeah.
• The final fighter for FP1 was Byleth, and we all know how that went.

At best, I'm expecting a third party fighter who has some popularity, though not as much as Sephiroth or Steve. Someone like Phoenix Wright or Nahobino.

 

[BlondeLombax]

After three years of fake leaks, I've automatically been more skeptical of the leaks that mention fan favorites. That's ironic, considering how we finally got a lot of popular requests in Ultimate, but man, I've lost count of how many times I've seen Geno, Master Chief, and Sora thrown around. I feel like I remember seeing a generic "Crash might be confirmed as the next fighter," article with just about every DLC character.

Pretty much every thumbnail for every CP11 video I see on Youtube has Crash as a silhouette. I'm just amazed he's still being thrown to and fro, you'd think his support base & in-fandom credibility would have taken a big hit concerning the ActiBlizz debacle that's been going on.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Pretty much every thumbnail for every CP11 video I see on Youtube has Crash as a silhouette. I'm just amazed he's still being thrown to and fro, you'd think his support base & in-fandom credibility would have taken a big hit concerning the ActiBlizz debacle that's been going on.

You be surprised how powerful nostalgia and bandwagoning can be. There's been some level of pushback against Crash because of the Activision/Blizzard controversies, but people like the character more than they hate the company I guess.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Still predicting our fighter to be a low-note or mid-tier pick and one we're not expecting or left-fielded.

Besides Smash never tends to end on a banger.

Brawl:
Sm4sh (Base):
Sm4sh (DLC):(Controversial due to debate of ballot being rigged)
Ultimate (Base):
Ultimate (Pass 1):

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Still predicting our fighter to be a low-note or mid-tier pick and one we're not expecting or left-fielded.

Besides Smash never tends to end on a banger.

Brawl:
Sm4sh (Base):
Sm4sh (DLC):(Controversial due to debate of ballot being rigged)
Ultimate (Base):
Ultimate (Pass 1):

While the point about the Ballot being rigged debate is cogent, I wouldn't count Duck Hunt as the final reveal for Smash 4 base game because he was revealed after Smash 4 3DS was released, which kinda undermined the whole point of the character reveal.

 

[BlondeLombax]

You know a western IP that's popular in Japan that I never see discussed?

Left 4 Dead. It's apparently pretty loved over there, even getting a unique standalone arcade game. Everybody always goes on about Gordon Freeman or the Heavy, but what if we could potentially get someone like Bill or another survivor from the games?

 

[Wunderwaft]

I know you said it won't in minor, struck-through text, but no way the final fighter lives up to expectations.

• The final fighter for base Smash 4 was Shulk, which, while personally hype to me, doesn't match up to Mega Man or Pac-Man
• The final fighter for Smash 4 DLC was Bayonetta, though Corrin is more memorable for opening up the final presentation because...it's Corrin.
• The final fighter for base Ultimate was Ken and Incineroar or Piranha Plant. Yeah.
• The final fighter for FP1 was Byleth, and we all know how that went.

At best, I'm expecting a third party fighter who has some popularity, though not as much as Sephiroth or Steve. Someone like Phoenix Wright or Nahobino.

That is true, I admit I've been entertaining the possibility of getting a big character that blows everyone's minds but that's mostly in jest. Unless Nintendo and Sakurai specifically decided to go with a different approach for their reveal plans in FP2 I don't see us getting a megaton character. But then again we did get Min Min as the first character character so who knows....

Nice Index pfp btw, missed ya man.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

You know a western IP that's popular in Japan that I never see discussed?

Left 4 Dead. It's apparently pretty loved over there, even getting a unique standalone arcade game. Everybody always goes on about Gordon Freeman or the Heavy, but what if we could potentially get someone like Bill or another survivor from the games?

You know what other Western IP got a standalone arcade game in Japan? Half-Life, which has also received multiple nods from prolific Japanese game developers as recently as a couple of years ago.

If anyone is interested, you can read my most recent speculation write-up (though it's not so recent now) The Case for Gordon Freeman which is a very good essay please read it and feed my fragile ego

 

[osby]

You know a western IP that's popular in Japan that I never see discussed?

Left 4 Dead. It's apparently pretty loved over there, even getting a unique standalone arcade game. Everybody always goes on about Gordon Freeman or the Heavy, but what if we could potentially get someone like Bill or another survivor from the games?

L4D2 is one of the few FPS games I actually liked so I'd be super hyped for anyone from that game, especially Rochelle and Ellis.

Never gonna happen but... maybe I should do a moveset for Survivors one of these days.

 

[Hex D. Jess]

How is people saying "fake leak is fake" a setup for disappointment?

For a fake leak it sure is being talked about a lot.

 

[WahHahaha]

The funny thing about this leak is that unlike other 4chan leaks, which actually predicted characters, this one ONLY got a date right and people freaked out about it.

Might genuinely be the worst leak that has ever become widespread in the community.

 

[BlondeLombax]

You know what other Western IP got a standalone arcade game in Japan? Half-Life, which has also received multiple nods from prolific Japanese game developers as recently as a couple of years ago.

If anyone is interested, you can read my most recent speculation write-up (though it's not so recent now) The Case for Gordon Freeman which is a very good essay please read it and feed my fragile ego

Wow. I didn't realize that Valve was so prevalent in Japan. Reminds me of the TF2 charity they ran back in 2011. That was genuinely an amazing thing that the community did.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

For a fake leak it sure is being talked about a lot.

Yeah, but we talk extensively about fake leaks all the time here.

Any veteran of the thread can tell you about the good ol' Gardevoir/Gothitelle leak that was discussed for literal months during base game speculation (it successfully predicted Richter Belmont which gave it credibility). Correct date prediction leaks have also gained attention here multiple times in the past, though I can't think of any specific examples from the top of my head.

If anyone thinks this is a bad fake leak, then I assure you we've discussed worse here.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

This stupid argument again...

• Sure. Lower key. Whatever.
• Was big enough for his fans to get his game localized.
  • Were "revealed" after the release of Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3Ds. They do not count as the final reveals because we already knew them through official means.
• / Corrin disappointed, and Bayonetta did have her discourse ("ew sexy characters in my good Christian Nintendo game"), but she wasn't particularly unpopular before reveal, just dismissed.
  • EDIT: And yes we know she wasn't "the ballot pick", but this comment is still true even disregarding her as such.
• / Ken was a popular pick for an Echo Fighter, and while a Pokémon was kind of obligatory (though not unwanted) at this point, the only reason he was unpopular amongst the community was because of the Grinch Leak.
• The only other "final reveal" that can be considered inherently disappointing as a whole since Corrin and Bayonetta's reveals split up the reception.

 

[DanganZilla5]

You know a western IP that's popular in Japan that I never see discussed?

Left 4 Dead. It's apparently pretty loved over there, even getting a unique standalone arcade game. Everybody always goes on about Gordon Freeman or the Heavy, but what if we could potentially get someone like Bill or another survivor from the games?

I think Left 4 Dead isn't brought up as much simply because people might think:

• Heavy and TF2 in general is cartoony and more funny, thus it's better suited for Smash.
• And Half Life is such a revolutionary title for the FPS genre and Sakurai himself has praised HL before.
• And in general, L4D's protagonists might be seen as generic?

Those are the only plausible explanations I can think of. And I don't think it's because it's a gritty zombie game because Resident Evil is seen as a very likely candidate (Putting aside the spirit event).

But yeah I would dig L4D, I love its atmosphere. Imagine the stage. It could take place somewhere like in a bunker or a train station and you could have the different types of zombies be hazards. It would be really cool.

 

[MasterCheef]

The funny thing about this leak is that unlike other 4chan leaks, which actually predicted characters, this one ONLY got a date right and people freaked out about it.

Might genuinely be the worse leak that has ever become widespread in the community.

I think the grinch leak was worse.

 

[WahHahaha]

I think the grinch leak was worse.

The Grinch leak was way better. Someone actually put effort into making believable box art and a believable story.

This leak is just "Disney called Nintendo and said Sora is in, see you October 5th"

 

[BlondeLombax]

The Grinch leak was way better. Someone actually put effort into making believable box art and a believable story.

This leak is just "Disney called Nintendo and said Sora is in, see you October 5th"

Welp, can't argue with that.

Omni's Rayman will go down as my favorite thanks to how many people he duped, though. Last game, I know, but it's still remarkable.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think Left 4 Dead isn't brought up as much simply because people might think:

• Heavy and TF2 in general is cartoony and more funny, thus it's better suited for Smash.
• And Half Life is such a revolutionary title for the FPS genre and Sakurai himself has praised HL before.
• And in general, L4D's protagonists might be seen as generic?

Those are the only plausible explanations I can think of. And I don't think it's because it's a gritty zombie game because Resident Evil is seen as a very likely candidate (Putting aside the spirit event).

But yeah I would dig L4D, I love its atmosphere. Imagine the stage. It could take place somewhere like in a bunker or a train station and you could have the different types of zombies be hazards. It would be really cool.

I didn't even know Left 4 Dead was a Valve title to be honest...

I wouldn't mind a handful of the survivors as a character, but I don't really know anything about them other than I'm pretty sure they're all the same mechanically.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Welp, can't argue with that.

Omni's Rayman will go down as my favorite thanks to how many people he duped, though. Last game, I know, but it's still remarkable.

Wasn't that leak so convincing that Ubisoft actually came out and were like "Yeah, we're looking into that and we'll make an official statement soon"?

The absolute chaos that leak left in its wake was unrivaled lmao

 

[SKX31]

Ackshually, the chance of someone leaking a release date for Sora was 1 in 358/2 thank you very much

That's like saying that my Dream will one day Drop in the Distance.

After three years of fake leaks, I've automatically been more skeptical of the leaks that mention fan favorites. That's ironic, considering how we finally got a lot of popular requests in Ultimate, but man, I've lost count of how many times I've seen Geno, Master Chief, and Sora thrown around. I feel like I remember seeing a generic "Crash might be confirmed as the next fighter," article with just about every DLC character.

I know you said it won't in minor, struck-through text, but no way the final fighter lives up to expectations.

• The final fighter for base Smash 4 was Shulk, which, while personally hype to me, doesn't match up to Mega Man or Pac-Man
• The final fighter for Smash 4 DLC was Bayonetta, though Corrin is more memorable because...it's Corrin.
• The final fighter for base Ultimate was Piranha Plant. Yeah.
• The final fighter for FP1 was Byleth, and we all know how that went.

At best, I'm expecting a third party fighter who has some popularity, though not as much as Sephiroth or Steve. Someone like Phoenix Wright or Nahobino.

And that's why I'm gonna prep for the scenario where my MW makes it in somehow. Far from a fan favorite, is kinda-sorta-big but not super-big in the West (it's big in Russia though), completely and utterly obscure in Japan. Which would tie it all so neatly together and be considered "WTF" and "underwhelming" by the Nintendo-fanbase in general...

Dota 2 confirmed baybee.

You know what other Western IP got a standalone arcade game in Japan? Half-Life, which has also received multiple nods from prolific Japanese game developers as recently as a couple of years ago.

If anyone is interested, you can read my most recent speculation write-up (though it's not so recent now) The Case for Gordon Freeman which is a very good essay please read it and feed my fragile ego

It's a shame that Nintendo and Valve have not interacted much (I dunno if Bridge Constructor Portal should count since it's a complete side game and not much appear to have come off of it). I kinda suspect it's because Nintendo and Valve are simply content with keeping to themselves since they have practically their own ecosystems for games, but man.

I think Left 4 Dead isn't brought up as much simply because people might think:

• Heavy and TF2 in general is cartoony and more funny, thus it's better suited for Smash.
• And Half Life is such a revolutionary title for the FPS genre and Sakurai himself has praised HL before.
• And in general, L4D's protagonists might be seen as generic?

Those are the only plausible explanations I can think of. And I don't think it's because it's a gritty zombie game because Resident Evil is seen as a very likely candidate (Putting aside the spirit event).

But yeah I would dig L4D, I love its atmosphere. Imagine the stage. It could take place somewhere like in a bunker or a train station and you could have the different types of zombies be hazards. It would be really cool.

It also kinda doesn't help that L4D's been dormant for the last few years (outside of crossover stuff). Valve spends a lot of time with CS and Dota because they're the multiplayer cash cows. And the consistent Top 2 on Steam, only PUBG have been able to consistently challenge them. While TF2 retains a solid playerbase:

TBF L4D still does retain a pretty decent-to-solid playerbase and is averaging 14-15K concurrent (which is a still really good number). The dormancy could just be because Valve's not sure where to take the series, kinda akin to how Valve struggled with Half-Life for the longest time before finally getting HL Alyx together.

 

[DanganZilla5]

The Grinch Leak will forever go down as the most infamous Smash leak ever. It's on a whole nother level even compared to the Smash 4 Rayman leak. Whoever made the Grinch Leak took the time to:

• Draw a complete replica of the whole mural and added in seven characters with believable poses.
• Take a picture within an actual office space with official Grinch art that wasn't revealed yet.
• Connected it back to a Bandai Namco warehouse.

And this is why I can't trust any leaks, because people will go to extreme lengths to fake stuff.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Take a picture within an actual office space with official Grinch art that wasn't revealed yet

Actually, the Grinch artwork was a pose that was 1 to 1 with a shot in the trailer

 

[DanganZilla5]

The dormancy could just be because Valve's not sure where to take the series

Or it could be because they can't count above 2.

 

[Momotsuki]

1/365 is just some generalized hyperbole that still makes the same point. I don't think it's worth splitting hairs over whether the odds truly were 1/365, or 1/150, or whatever. The main point - that it was indeed a very lucky hit, is still unchanged.

But yeah, it is only a lucky hit. I have no idea whether this Twitter person is trolling or not but it doesn't change that the leak is bogus.
I wouldn't have come out or apologized though, I'd have enjoyed the scene.

 

[Sucumbio]

I didn't follow the grinch leak but now that I've read up on it...

On June 11, 2019, Banjo & Kazooie were confirmed to be the fourth DLC character overall, making two out of the seven characters from the Grinch leak in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, as well as confirming that every character shown in the leak appears in the game in one way or another.

Wouldn't this mean the leak is basically legit? Granted it didn't predict all the characters mentioned correctly but they are all in ultimate one way or another according to the Wiki...

 

[spicynun]

I know you said it won't in minor, struck-through text, but no way the final fighter lives up to expectations.

• The final fighter for base Smash 4 was Shulk, which, while personally hype to me, doesn't match up to Mega Man or Pac-Man
• The final fighter for Smash 4 DLC was Bayonetta, though Corrin is more memorable for opening up the final presentation because...it's Corrin.
• The final fighter for base Ultimate was Ken and Incineroar or Piranha Plant. Yeah.
• The final fighter for FP1 was Byleth, and we all know how that went.

At best, I'm expecting a third party fighter who has some popularity, though not as much as Sephiroth or Steve. Someone like Phoenix Wright or Nahobino.

I honestly hope you're right. I tend to like the not massive third party characters more. Phoenix being my current most wanted

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I didn't follow the grinch leak but now that I've read up on it...



Wouldn't this mean the leak is basically legit? Granted it didn't predict all the characters mentioned correctly but they are all in ultimate one way or another according to the Wiki...

No, as they were all claimed to be fighters, and for the base roster at that.

EDIT: Also IIRC Ken and Incineroar weren't on it.

 

[Hex D. Jess]

I didn't follow the grinch leak but now that I've read up on it...



Wouldn't this mean the leak is basically legit? Granted it didn't predict all the characters mentioned correctly but they are all in ultimate one way or another according to the Wiki...

The Grinch Leak wasn't just a list of name. It was a fake banner that had all of these characters as fighters.