Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[SpectreJordan]

Look I'll be fine with anything that proves expecting Crash/MC/something as "hype" as them at the end is wrong, I just think Isaac has points in his favor that let him sneak past the "expected" crowd.

Then again maybe I should stop trying to convince people Isaac has a chance if I want him to "sneak past the 'expected' crowd".

“If I can’t get what I want then no one should!”

 

[pupNapoleon]

Your Isaac bias is very obvious.

If they're gonna promote an Assist Trophy, they're still gonna pick someone that's more appealing to the general audiences, like Shadow, Waluigi or heck, maybe even Shovel Knight.

Yes, the money from before CP11 won't go away, but as a reminder, Nintendo is a business. And businesses don't really care about "having nothing to lose", they care about making as much money as possible so they can fund more projects to then make even more money. It's the cycle of capitalism.

I think this is a very limited point of view. There is likely more purpose to a DLC character than pure sales of the pass (which is the specific discussion a hand): Sales of the system, publicity for Nintendo, publicity for other Nintendo titles, company relations, creating legacy for various characters, consumer relations... really, we don't have a way of knowing.
Even so, it could be argued that paying for a third party character is not going to earn more money.

In fact, I'd go as far as to say, if sales were all that mattered, our Fighters Passes would vary quite greatly. However, if you do think you can make the argument that these current characters are the characters that Nintendo saw as the most profitable, I would love to hear it.

I’m not sure how keen Ninrendo is about doing another last minute promotion. We haven’t gotten a single character like that in the entirety of Ultimates DLC.

Promotional picks, yes. But someone who's game either just released or is about to release? Nope.

Seems like Nintendo learned their lesson with Corrin on that front.

Fire Emblem: Three Houses released on July 16, 2019.
Byleth was revealed on January 28, 2020.

I'm curious how closely a game release needs to be to the characters release, if six months is considered adequate time to differentiate them.
(This also may have been a Covid delay- it could have been planned to have been before January 28th).

I think the most logical way to look at what constitutes a promotional pick is- if the character was chosen to get in, before the game was released. Clearly, this means that the character's reception, much less the game's reception, has any impact on choosing the character. Thus, promotion.

• Konami may not be using alot of their IPs, but besides Bomberman, Konami also has Contra, which was a huge and important game back in the Arcade/NES days, and despite people saying it's "dead", it has a mobile game in China that is apparently frickin' huge and is supposedly getting a release in the West if I heard correctly. Then there's also Silent Hill which is one of the biggest horror franchises next to Resident Evil.

I cannot help but get begrudged when people talk about Konami possibilities, and don't seem to remember that Frogger is one of the most universally recognizable video game characters of all time.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I do think the the reasoning of “This Character X in this arbitrary collection/grouping of characters is the most likely of them and thus Character Y has a virtual zero chance” is weird but in general Isaac doesn’t stand out to me to really be called anything more than a solid dark horse in a sea of possibilities. (Which tbf is still relatively great when speculation is as open but competitive as it is)

I also think it’s probably, numerically and statistically not someone of the duofecta Crash/Master Chief but I feel like the only way they are consistently brought up now is actually as Nelson’s boogeyman of choice in his Don Quichote quest of proving the folly of the mythical monolith that is the Smash fanbase. Crashter Chief is only unlikely in the statistical sense of being only two characters in a world of uncountable possibilities rather than having a specific reason to be unlikely, and if such a reason exists it is certainly not “because the Smash fanbase would actually have predicted something.”

First party ballot babes is a very valid and imo underdiscussed pool of characters that Isaac definitely has a slice in the pie in, but the question is how big that slice is and whether it’s even the pie that is served.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

First party ballot babes is a very valid and imo underdiscussed pool of characters that Isaac definitely has a slice in the pie in, but the question is how big that slice is and whether it’s even the pie that is served

That's not even the issue, but rather acting like a big fanfavourite isn't hype so we should expect them as an underwhelming Nintendo character while angrily screaming about people letting 'the hype' twist their minds to be irrational. It's grade A hypocrisy

 

[WeirdChillFever]

That's not even the issue, but rather acting like a big fanfavourite isn't hype so we should expect them as an underwhelming Nintendo character while angrily screaming about people letting 'the hype' twist their minds to be irrational. It's grade A hypocrisy

Yes I’m well aware of the weird marketing tactic of trying to pass off a popular character as a meritless wtf-pick to somehow better the chances, but I’d rather divorce Isaac talk from someone’s personal behavior and choices in speculation since he’s a pretty neat character all things considerded

 

[pupNapoleon]

I'm not sure if anyone has seen the documentary series "High Score," on Netflix. It is all about Video Game history- and I certainly think it is enjoyable, and fact filled.

It's also interesting to me that the episode about RPG history, shows clips of BotW. I know the editors opinion is not gospel, but its nice to know I am not the only one who sees Zelda as a partial RPG.

The reason why I am saying that pack 11 wasn’t originally a part of pass 2 is because if you watch the official unveiling of the 2nd pass during the Byleth presentation pass 2 was originally just shown as 5 fighters and then pack 11 was added on to it from a separate category from either pass to make 6. This means that pack 11 could have been added to pass 1 and none of the characters in pass 2 so far have warranted its last minute existence as they are all “second chance” characters, so pack 11 has to be that character that Nintendo has to advertise to warrant doing another pass and taking 2 years almost to release it. This is the reason why I go to SMT V because if it wasn’t delayed it is entirely possible Nahobino could have been pack 5 in pass 1 and SMT V would have simply replaced Three Houses’ release and marketing in 2019 because Three Houses was heavily delayed too. And that is where my theory that Joker is a last minute add on comes in, because with Nahobino in pass 1 instead of pass 2, Joker, as he is in Ultimate becomes completely redundant as a character in a Megaten side series that is on Sony consoles only. Nahobino can literally have his trailer be about hunting Joker’s stolen Smash invitation down and taking it from him to get into Smash and it works on many levels.

I just want to make a comment on this part of your essay.
I think you are reading HEAVILY into this decision to show a sixth slot in the second Fighters Pass.
As someone who works in marketing, and very frequently with an editor, I do agree- the delay in the final point was to tell the story that it was something extra.
However, seeing this as a 'last minute addition' seems to be confirmation bias on your part, at least from my eyes. I think Occam's Razor would say that the delay before the reveal of the sixth slot, is because, compared to pass one- yes, Nintendo is giving us more, they are adding six this time- not five.

1. We were never given that as a reason, you're just making stuff up to fit your weird theory. We've been told Nintendo Picks the dlc, Sakurai liking Persona 5 wasn't mentioned as a reason.

Well, in addition to all other sways of logic (since I have mentioned a bunch of them), the brand manager for Persona 5 stated:
"Joker will participate in Super Smash Bros. mainly because of the invitation from Sora Ltd.'s Masahiro Sakurai," said Hiraoka. "That is what led to this collaboration. Because Mr. Sakurai likes Persona 5 very much, and I personally like Super Smash Bros. a lot, my first thought when I received the invitation was 'Great!' I was very happy to establish a relationship for this collaboration."

If you watch the video, as well- Sakurai clearly states that SMT and Persona started as the same moniker. Now, it is up to the individual to determine if this means he views them as separate franchises- but clearly it does muddy the waters as to whether he thinks an SMT character would be of the same series/universe. Sakurai continues to go on and reemphasize just how much of an impact the style, characterization, how to properly add vocals to music for a game of fighting, and UI of Persona influenced him, and the creation of making Smash's UI both understandable and striking. He then says not just how much he enjoys this game- as he does many others- but that he gives it high praise, which is something he "doesn't often give."

Ultimately, I think this story does put all the information into context- and yes, I find it naive, that with this information, it would be seen that Sakurai is not why Joker is in Smash.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I seen stats like “90% complete” or the words “content complete” thrown around across the internet and they must be coming from somewhere

"I read it on the internet therefore it must be true"

They don't own it, they only fund and publish it. Platinum Games is still the developer and Sega still owns the IP in its entirety. We even had re-releases of the first Bayo game on PS4 and Xbox One last year, for which Sega did the publishing. If that's not proof Nintendo doesn't own Bayo, I don't know what is...

It's the same kind of misconception that people have concerning the Doom franchise, where people think Bethesda owns it because they publish it when really, funding and publishing is all they do while id Software does all the work and owns the IP.

Not that this changes your point but you picked a poor example considering Bethesda's parent company also owned id and they were for all intents and purposes a subsidiary of Bethesda even before they all got swallowed by Microsoft.

 

[Guynamednelson]

pass off a popular character as a meritless wtf-pick

That's not even the issue, but rather acting like a big fanfavourite isn't hype so we should expect them as an underwhelming Nintendo character while angrily screaming about people letting 'the hype' twist their minds to be irrational. It's grade A hypocrisy

It's more like "he's not popular among the MODERN smash fandom therefore can qualify as a 'lame finale'". I hate how this gets ignored.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

It's more like "he's not popular among the MODERN smash fandom therefore can qualify as a 'lame finale'". I hate how this gets ignored.

It gets ignored because it's blatantly untrue as most people still like Isaac and want him in. I swear, what is it with Isaac fans of late acting like he's hated cause you're not the only one I saw in recent memory

 

[Guynamednelson]

I swear, what is it with Isaac fans of late acting like he's hated cause you're not the only one I saw in recent memory

Because, well, just look around you. The Smash fandom isn't biased in Isaac's favor anymore, they think trying to get a Sony character in is more plausible even though Playstation fans would've already bought the pass for Sephiroth/Kazuya.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Because, well, just look around you. The Smash fandom isn't biased in Isaac's favor anymore, they think trying to get a Sony character in is more plausible.

So because he's not considered likely, he's actually hated despite still being popular? Do you even listen to what you're saying? How would you feel if people were saying this exact same thing about Dante or Master Chief as they aren't considered very likely anymore?

 

[ZelDan]

Isaac isn't a hated character overall; He's definitely more on the "liked" side than "disliked" side. Sure, he has his haters like any other character, whether it be because of his smash popularity or because "AnImE SwOrDsMaN!" or because "OMG a handful of Isaac supporters did so and so some time ago or believed in this theory some time ago I hate Golden Sun and everyone that likes it now grrrr" But most people either like him or are indifferent to him, and outside the Smash bubble he's probably largely unknown.

If Isaac were hypothetically get in CP11 than he might attract more negativity than usual, because that's just the fate of whoever CP11 is, but even then I think the positive or indifferent/neutral reactions would overpower the negative.

 

[Guynamednelson]

So because he's not considered likely, he's actually hated

No, but it does mean Smash fans like to exaggerate how obscure he is and therefore disqualify him based on that. You're the opposite of most Smash fans nowadays, acting like he'd be hype on the same level as Steve.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

It's more like "he's not popular among the MODERN smash fandom therefore can qualify as a 'lame finale'". I hate how this gets ignored.

Alright, I suppose that Isaac’s fallen off as compared to base game in some sort of cycle of perceived liklehood and popularity but it still doesn’t make the victim complex any more becoming especially since we are talking about one of the most popular first party characters left in this Smash fanbase. Your “hype fanbase picks” also tend to be just Crash, Master Chief (and Dante before he became Devil Mii Cry) so I’m wondering where exactly the cut-off point between hype and lame lies in your view. Is it all “lame” besides those three or are there some other characters that you think the fanbase wouldn’t consider a lame finale?

 

[Guynamednelson]

Crash, Master Chief

I mainly like to target them because of the hypocrisy surrounding them. Every single reason why Isaac might not get in is a reason he DEFINITELY won't, but reasons why Crash and Chief might not get ignored.

 

[Schnee117]

Isaac's popular, people just also have broader horizons so there's several other popular characters.

Also if I look around me, I see the likes of Shinobi actively wishing for a new Golden Sun, I see Lost Age getting a premier JRPG slot at GDQ with people asking for a new game, heck just a lot of "New Golden Sun pls" on the internet in general and on this site I see the third largest support thread (behind Geno who got hit with a reset and Shantae) and the largest of a character that's not widely regarded as out.

That's a lot of Golden Sun fans and therefore people that'd be hype for Isaac. People are just aware that there's only one spot left for thousands of characters and that popularity and cheap costs may not be enough

 

[Guynamednelson]

Isaac's popular, people just also have broader horizons so there's several other popular characters.

Also if I look around me, I see the likes of Shinobi actively wishing for a new Golden Sun, I see Lost Age getting a premier JRPG slot at GDQ with people asking for a new game, heck just a lot of "New Golden Sun pls" on the internet in general and on this site I see the third largest support thread (behind Geno who got hit with a reset and Shantae) and the largest of a character that's not widely regarded as out.

That's a lot of Golden Sun fans and therefore people that'd be hype for Isaac. People are just aware that there's only one spot left for thousands of characters and that popularity and cheap costs may not be enough

Just because he was popular among people ******** about who the next Smash character should be in 2018 doesn't mean there's plenty of people who want Steve to be an example of what Smash goes for from now on.

 

[ZelDan]

Man...

I have to say, as someone that has both Isaac and Master Chief as MWs, I find this whole "Isaac vs. Master Chief" thing that Nelson has started is agonizing.

 

[Merengue]

I mainly like to target them because of the hypocrisy surrounding them. Every single reason why Isaac might not get in is a reason he DEFINITELY won't, but reasons why Crash and Chief might not get ignored.

Hey people try to disprove Porky by saying he's in the Capsule. Some characters are in a tight spot just like Isaac. Porky is just in a worse position.

 

[Schnee117]

View attachment 324000

Man...

I have to say, as someone that has both Isaac and Master Chief as MWs, I find this whole "Isaac vs. Master Chief" thing that Nelson has started is agonizing.

I like 'em both too.
It's far beyond pathetic.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I mainly like to target them because of the hypocrisy surrounding them. Every single reason why Isaac might not get in is a reason he DEFINITELY won't, but reasons why Crash and Chief might not get ignored.

alright we gotta stop using the word “hypocrisy“ so much because its mostly only used to mean “me no likely this argument”. The reason Crash’s and Master Chief’s cons get “ignored“ is because they’re either outweighed by their pros, or because those reasons have been actively discussed (like the whole lame finale conumdrum) and decided to be less relevant than they seem or driven on false patterns. I do agree that I personally think that, for example, the grouping of Assist Trophies and the adjacent “It’s gotta be Waluigi Shadow therefore no Isaac” discussion point doesn‘t hold much water either, that first parties that were popular in the ballot could prove a very fruitful pool of characters and that certain arguments could be given more thought in either direction but this is nearly not as much as a black and white situation to say that there’s a boatload of “hypocrisy” going on. For the record, I think Crash and Master Chief have a 20% chance at best so I don‘t feel them as particularly likely but the pros are there to make the cons a bit less of a dealbreaker than they are for Isaac.

Hey people try to disprove Porky by saying he's in the Capsule.

I think that mostly stems from the time when Porky fans tried to prove he was in the game because he didn’t have a Spirit. Now we know Spirits aren’t really a big deal for DLC but Porky did get his initial frontrunner status because Porky fans deemed him “missing”, which people responded to with the idea that the ASC was a stand-in for Porky himself.

 

[Guynamednelson]

driven on false patterns

"lame finale" isn't driven on false patterns, no matter how much you like Bayonetta. She's much smaller than Street Fighter or Final Fantasy, just like how Golden Sun is much smaller than Minecraft.

 

[Schnee117]

Smaller =/= Lame

And Bayonetta received a good bit of hype in response to being added. That's a fact.

(Skip ahead a bit beyond Corrin)

Incineroar and Ken are also big deals but both got hit by leaks, real and fake that took the wind from the sails from the core fanbase. By and large people were actually excited but the impact of the Box leak and the Grinch Hoax shouldn't be ignored.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

"lame finale" isn't driven on false patterns, no matter how much you like Bayonetta. She's much smaller than Street Fighter or Final Fantasy, just like how Golden Sun is much smaller than Minecraft.

I‘d say Crash Bandicoot is smaller than Minecraft too and I have talked before about the recency factor that at least made it obligatory for Byleth and Corrin to release last, lest their home game be out too late compared to their release date to make the cut. Besides, this is far from an ignored argument considering it has been topic of the day next to Fire Emblem for a good six months now, especially around E3 when its little cousin “E3 is always Big” reared its ugly head.

But, let’s look at the list, which does tend to skew towards lower key characters, but does not exclusively sketch a pattern to say that FP11 has to include one.

-Bayonetta
-She‘s already an interesting case. Yes, she was poorly received and comes from a smaller series, but she was also specifically chosen as the ballot winner. Whether Bayonetta actually was is another question, but both no matter how you like her, she’s smaller than X as well as no matter how you dislike her, she was the ballot winner* apply

-Corrin
-His game released only six months before his reveal and thus couldn’t be a whole lot sooner. Besides that, Corrin was chosen to be recent, not to be smaller. This gives leeway to characters with games coming up or releasing on the Switch for a similar ending to the DLC, but not to Isaac.

-Incineroar
-Alright, this is a small fry compared to all kinds of heavy hitters that came before him. Ultimate revealing all characters ahead of time also means there’s no fuzziness with unlockable characters and post-release reveals.

EDIT: And this is me not dragging my wrestler heels in the sand for the fact that Incineroar is a Pokémon and thus hails from one of the biggest series of all time.

-Byleth
-Yes, a smaller pick world-wise than the others, but like Corrin, he could only have swapped placed with Terry or very maybe Banjo-Kazooie since Three Houses itself didn‘t release until the summer. Again, not primarily picked based on size, but on recency.

So, out of the four potential picks for an unambiguous last character, only one unambiguously represents a lame character. One character is not a pattern, and the fact the rest is arguable means to me that it‘s a breakable pattern at best. This is where I come back to my point on statistics and how unlikely it is in general to have the final character be from a fandom’s list of ten tops, but that has little to do with a secret tradition to crap the bed when development wraps up.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Smaller =/= Lame

No, it isn't. But you shouldn't exaggerate GS's popularity just to disqualify it from being the last slot.

 

[Schnee117]

No, it isn't. But you shouldn't exaggerate GS's popularity just to disqualify it from being the last slot.

Where have I "disqualified" it exactly?
Grow up

 

[N3ON]

As much as I'd love to see Isaac added next and last, I just don't see why they would choose him right now. The only reason that makes sense to me would be to push a GS4, but timing wise, that doesn't line up. That game would not only have to exist, but it probably would've had to come out a year or two ago.

There's an outside chance they land on him if they want to end with a true diehard favourite in the same vein they constructed some of base with, but I still don't see Isaac being the choice, frankly. I mean it could happen, but it just seems unlikely to the point I can't give it much serious consideration. It just seems like were they keen on that route, they'd have chosen Waluigi or even Geno. Though tbf, if they want to defer to ballot results, Isaac probably did outperform those two. Still, it's not one of those outcomes you can outright dismiss but it's certainly not one that seems to have a strong enough case to anticipate or entertain to any real extent.

And even then, that's assuming they want to end on that kind of note, and that ATs aren't invalidated by their position, as some believe them to be. Unlike Crash and Chief, the reasons against Isaac aren't buoyed by opposing boons. Not that Crash and Chief are close to locks, but their cases are much more mixed than a character whose best chance lies with going for dedicated fan demand but for some reason passing over characters with higher fan demand.

Picking Isaac now is like when you choose teams and your first pick is the third-best player. You're probably just doing that because they're your friend.

I think Isaac fans are gonna have to do what we do best, and just keep pushing through on scraps, standing by ol' scarf boy until it happens.

 

[Guynamednelson]

You're probably just doing that because they're your friend.

Or because your friend isn't a DLC Mii costume and/or can actually fill out a challenger pack. And no, they're not going to pick random Mario songs just because we don't have every single one already.

 

[N3ON]

Or because your friend isn't a DLC Mii costume and/or can actually fill out a challenger pack. And no, they're not going to pick random Mario songs just because we don't have every single one already.

The character isn't added to facilitate the music. There is a pecking order in which supporting content trickles down from what drives the selection: the character. Positing that there can't be a pack made around Waluigi remains ridiculous.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Grow up

If I grew up I won't be ******** about who gets into the children's party game next.

Positing that there can't be a pack made around Waluigi remains ridiculous.

As is acting like Isaac cannot, cannot, CANNOT happen. Sakurai can find things about him more interesting than the bigger option, it isn't black and white.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

As much as I'd love to see Isaac added next and last, I just don't see why they would choose him right now. The only reason that makes sense to me would be to push a GS4, but timing wise, that doesn't line up. That game would not only have to exist, but it probably would've had to come out a year or two ago.

There's an outside chance they land on him if they want to end with a true diehard favourite in the same vein they constructed some of base with, but I still don't see Isaac being the choice, frankly. I mean it could happen, but it just seems unlikely to the point I can't give it much serious consideration. It just seems like were they keen on that route, they'd have chosen Waluigi or even Geno. Though tbf, if they want to defer to ballot results, Isaac probably did outperform those two. Still, it's not one of those outcomes you can outright dismiss but it's certainly not one that seems to have a strong enough case to anticipate or entertain to any real extent.

And even then, that's assuming they want to end on that kind of note, and that ATs aren't invalidated by their position, as some believe them to be. Unlike Crash and Chief, the reasons against Isaac aren't buoyed by opposing boons. Not that Crash and Chief are close to locks, but their cases are much more mixed than a character whose best chance lies with going for dedicated fan demand but for some reason passing over characters with higher fan demand.

Picking Isaac now is like when you choose teams and your first pick is the third-best player. You're probably just doing that because they're your friend.

I think Isaac fans are gonna have to do what we do best, and just keep pushing through on scraps, standing by ol' scarf boy until it happens.

I wouldn’t say that Isaac is unlikely because like two characters are more popular, but because there‘s ten characters as popular as him as well. Dixie Kong, Waluigi, Geno, Bandana Dee, Shantae, Shovel Knight are all easy-to-acquire characters that scored high in the ballot. Even if you split the pie evenly, Isaac has competition which I think is a fairer assessment than “Waluigi or bust”

Or because your friend isn't a DLC Mii costume and/or can actually fill out a challenger pack. And no, they're not going to pick random Mario songs just because we don't have every single one already.

IIRC Isaac already had a Mii Costume in the base game, but I suppose this refers to Geno. (But even then picking Geno as a Mii Costume for DLC came after not choosing him as a playable character)

 

[N3ON]

As is acting like Isaac cannot, cannot, CANNOT happen.

Which I didn't do, so I guess we're just left with your point which you've now admitted is ridiculous.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Dixie Kong, Waluigi, Geno, Bandana Dee, Shantae, Shovel Knight are all easy-to-acquire characters that scored high in the ballot. Even if you split the pie evenly, Isaac has competition which I think is a fairer assessment than “Waluigi or bust”

Yes, this is much more fair than "Waluigi or bust", thank you. Although I'm not sure if Geno is exactly easy to acquire considering I think Square-Enix is more interested in adding other RPGs of theirs.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Yes, this is much more fair than "Waluigi or bust", thank you. Although I'm not sure if Geno is exactly easy to acquire considering I think Square-Enix is more interested in adding other RPGs of theirs.

Right, I waa thrown of by him being grouped with Waluigi in the quotes message. Replace him with Skull Kid or Ashley I suppose. Krystal is possible but she fell of for the ballot having to split the vote with Wolf.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I waa...Waluigi

Don't fix this.

 

[BlondeLombax]

Spoiler: My (expletive) thoughts on what's going on right now;

Please forgive me if this comes off as rude, but it's the middle of the night where I am, and this is just the same song-and-dance that's been going on since Sm4sh's DLC development began. You're all just grasping at straws, trying to prove why certain characters should or shouldn't be in the game with all kinds of baseless evidence and personal biases. This is a thread for simply discussing who could be next in line, not GameFAQs.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Don't fix this.

Was about to before I noticed how perfect it was tbh

Spoiler: My (expletive) thoughts on what's going on right now;

Please forgive me if this comes off as rude, but it's the middle of the night where I am, and this is just the same song-and-dance that's been going on since Sm4sh's DLC development began. You're all just grasping at straws, trying to prove why certain characters should or shouldn't be in the game with all kinds of baseless evidence and personal biases. This is a thread for simply discussing who could be next in line, not GameFAQs.

not to be this person but welcome to smashboards: we were never sane also timezones exist so the jokes on you for reading this instead of sleeping we’re doing all this for fun over coffee and stuff.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

oops, that was not the edit button. heyo

 

[N3ON]

I wouldn’t say that Isaac is unlikely because like two characters are more popular, but because there‘s ten characters as popular as him as well. Dixie Kong, Waluigi, Geno, Bandana Dee, Shantae, Shovel Knight are all easy-to-acquire characters that scored high in the ballot. Even if you split the pie evenly, Isaac has competition which I think is a fairer assessment than “Waluigi or bust”

Well but the problem is that not all those characters are of equal popularity. Maybe it seems that way, but Waluigi is going to outclass those options in terms of raw popularity. Though if they're looking at ballot data then Shovel Knight would be another contender, and Geno has been the most demanded during the DLC phase (though obviously he isn't going to make it).

I would be saying the same thing if someone raised Dixie or Bandana Dee or Shantae. But people don't. There's always next time.

Unless they're coupled with extenuating circumstances, which are fairly rare - especially for first-parties, they do tend to work from the top down when choosing characters due to popularity. I'm just leveraging that consistency here.

 

[Guynamednelson]

also timezones exist

to be fair i'm also in a timezone where i should be sleeping instead of ******** about people thinking isaac goldman has a lower chance than goku and shrek combined

i should probably also do various other things besides that even during the daytime