Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[subterrestrial]

I mean, it's what they did for Smash 4 (sorta), so there's precedent.

It really can go either way though.

bro sm4sh ended with bayo and corrin being revealed at the same time

bayo is second party, published and partially owned by nintendo

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

do people still think they "learned a lesson" from Byleth when they still made the ****ers regardless of how corrin was received

People have got to learn that fighting game characters (especially in a roster with 80 something characters) take a long time to make, balance playtest and finalize. Anyone can make a moveset and concept for a character (Looking at the MYM and Smash Infinite thread) but actual developers need to balance it.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

bro sm4sh ended with bayo and corrin being revealed at the same time

bayo is second party, published and partially owned by nintendo

They don't own it, they only fund and publish it. Platinum Games is still the developer and Sega still owns the IP in its entirety. We even had re-releases of the first Bayo game on PS4 and Xbox One last year, for which Sega did the publishing. If that's not proof Nintendo doesn't own Bayo, I don't know what is...

It's the same kind of misconception that people have concerning the Doom franchise, where people think Bethesda owns it because they publish it when really, funding and publishing is all they do while id Software does all the work and owns the IP.

 

[Sucumbio]

Nintendo never changes their minds unless it's bad pr like with dropping ties with a partner. This roster was planned out so well the last character will disappoint everyone except whoever wanted them.

(Piranha Plant, tho?)

Yeah I mean certainly somebody out there thought dude what about that vine thing with the mouth coming out the pipe and kills you that could be a smash character!...

(Nah man no one thought that ****.)..

Well, fine then! he's still cool...

(. ....)

 

[SNEKeater]

Hype is a judgment clouder.

You say that like all first parties would be disappointing or all third parties would be super hype for the average Smash fan.

Pretty sure someone like Waluigi would make more buzz than a SMT character.

 

[Idon]

bro sm4sh ended with bayo and corrin being revealed at the same time

bayo is second party, published and partially owned by nintendo

Published yes
Partially owned no

 

[Speed Weed]

To be fair, they do have a great treasure trove of IPs. It's just that a lot of the time they seem insistent on not doing anything with them, like a lot of companies, really.

Real talk tho, Billy Hatcher and Skies of Arcadia remakes when?

Ehhhhhhhh, they've gotten a lot better in that regard as of late. Even in that late 2000s/early-to-mid 2010s period that has a reputation for apparently being the era in which SEGA made almost nothing but Sonic and Yakuza, they still made quite a lot of other games - the important distinction to make here is that they've recently gotten a lot better at making use of their legacy IP. Either way, I don't think it's really fair to brush all that off just because a couple specific franchises haven't come back yet - and this is coming from someone who would die for, say, Skies of Arcadia or Virtual-ON to get something new (in the latter's case, at least, something new that isn't a Japan-only collection or a weird crossover game)

I guess the core of my frustration here is really just how off a lot of people's perception of SEGA's library really is. Really rustles my jimmies seeing the amount of people that essentially boil their legacy down to just Sonic, the Atlus stuff, and maybe Puyo and/or Yakuza. Basically, if it's not talked about on the newcomer thread, it might as well not exist. Granted, there have been moments where I feel they've been given a somewhat fairer shake - SEGA discussion did use to be pretty varied before Eggman became a speculation darling, and Phantasy Star has finally been getting some much-deserved attention as of late - but it's still pretty irritating whenever someone pulls the "well uhh actually, SEGA don't really have a lot of noteworthy IP outside of Sonic" card. Even worse is when their examples of the "small few other noteworthy IP" are, like, Monkey Ball and Billy Hatcher. Like, jeez, man: I love the All-Stars games to death, and they do feature a lot of genuinely important IP, but if there's something I don't like about them, it's that they convinced a whole generation of people that Billy Hatcher is one of the great pillars of SEGA history.

...Then again, I'm also not a big fan of the people that hold up a handful of their really big IP as The Ones That Matter and kinda just...dismiss everything else.

And that kinda leads into, like, the core of the core of my frustration: there's two big perceptions of SEGA's non-Sonic output floating around, and they're both pretty wack tbh. I think an anecdote that, like, perfectly sums up what I'm talking about is when I found a Twitter post that went something like "the "oh right, SEGA make games other than Sonic" starter pack", and it showed, like, AiAi, Billy Hatcher, Beat and NiGHTS. And then there was a reply that went "well these are what I think of when I think of SEGA stuff other than Sonic" and it was, like, Yakuza, Persona 5, Sakura Wars 2019 and PSO2. And, like, goddamn, that was it. That was exactly my problem: there are two prevailing perceptions of SEGA's library at play in the larger sphere of the interwebz, and I don't agree with either of them! I feel like these are both very tunnelvision-y points of view in relation to their IP that only take from a specific point of reference and ignore a large part of their legacy. So much of, like, the important **** SEGA's done over the years isn't acknowledged by either side. They're both very flawed points of view IMO. The thing is, like, there's gotta be a middle ground here. It's true that the All-Stars games aren't the best indicator of what are the most important SEGA IP are, there's a lot of big stuff they leave out. But also, I feel like it's super disingenuous to take The Current Big Stuff and dismiss everything else as completely irrelevant, because SEGA's older output abso-****ing-lutely has a place in their history as well. Even then, most of the big older stuff is ignored by the other side too, so a huge part of their history just gets no credit either way. And that's where we get back to the matter of Smash spec because this **** has rubbed off on SEGA discussion here! You can see this in the "uhh well actually they don't have a lot of big stuff anyway" claims: it's either the people that have the starting roster for Superstars Tennis as their entire frame of reference, or the people that act like anything that isn't, like, in their top 5-10 sales figures is Totally Irrelevant (TM). And they're both ignoring such a huge chunk of the company's legacy.

It's frustrating, to say the least. And I guess that's why PS music being played at the Tokyo Olympics is such a big W to me, because it's like the ultimate proof that yes, their other stuff does have a legacy.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

I'm going to need a video at some point.

That said, apparently, the song used for Phantasy Star was this one. And it was easy to find because when you try to search it on Youtube, it pops up quickly, showing that I'm not the only one who's searched for it.

A track originally from Phantasy Star Universe, but it's also used in Phantasy Star Online 2.

Amano's orchestrated work on PSU is underrated

 

[subterrestrial]

what other third party franchise is published and funded by nintendo like bayonetta? there's a precedent for the dlc cycle to always end with someone heavily affiliated and I think a first party ip is just way more likely overall

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

what other third party franchise is published and funded by nintendo like bayonetta? there's a precedent for the dlc cycle to always end with someone heavily affiliated and I think a first party ip is just way more likely overall

The main problem is that... who could that first party be?

Aside from Luigi's Mansion 3, every first-party Switch title has covered with either playable stuff, non-playable stuff or both.

So either we get something like King Boo or Gooigi.......or they dig a little deeper, which can be risky from a marketing standpoint because at least other first-party DLCs were relevant.

 

[Guynamednelson]

which can be risky from a marketing standpoint

They have nothing to lose at this point anyway, the money they earned from Smash doesn't go away if they added someone whose last well-received appearance was in 2003.

 

[SNEKeater]

what other third party franchise is published and funded by nintendo like bayonetta? there's a precedent for the dlc cycle to always end with someone heavily affiliated and I think a first party ip is just way more likely overall

A third party series being published and funded by Nintendo? I can't think of more examples beyond Bayonetta 2 and 3, but there are some close examples.

SMTV is being published by them on Europe, and well, this is just speculation/theories but some people feel like they've at least put some money to help with the whole simultaneous worldwide release thing, which is a first for Atlus, and kinda surprising the first game with a simultaneous worlwide release in their history wasn't a Persona game like Persona 5 Royal, specially when they're now part of Sega so it's not like they don't have zero support in that regard.

I think Octopath Traveler was published by Nintendo on Europe as well. Capcom definitely received some money for Monster Hunter: Rise to be a timed Switch exclusive.

And I'm not well informed about Fatal Frame but I'm sure Fatal Frame 5 on Wii U was published by Nintendo despite being owned by Koei Tecmo.

 

[pupNapoleon]

Yeah, despite Splatoon and Xenoblade X coming out a month before Fates in Japan, Corrin was chosen.

And Elma could've still served a promotional purpose like Corrin since Xenoblade X had only come out two weeks before the Final Smash Direct while Inkling could've absolutely been the new fresh character representing a new IP.

Fire Emblem just happened to be bigger than Xenoblade and a safer pick than a brand new IP that, at the time of choosing the character, was only weeks old if even that.

This is a sign of Sakurai taking less risks when it comes to upcoming stuff.

Roy sorta negates this.
All it shows it that, time and time again, Fire Emblem is both given special treatment.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

They have nothing to lose at this point anyway, the money they earned from Smash doesn't go away if they added someone whose last well-received appearance was in 2003.

Your Isaac bias is very obvious.

If they're gonna promote an Assist Trophy, they're still gonna pick someone that's more appealing to the general audiences, like Shadow, Waluigi or heck, maybe even Shovel Knight.

Yes, the money from before CP11 won't go away, but as a reminder, Nintendo is a business. And businesses don't really care about "having nothing to lose", they care about making as much money as possible so they can fund more projects to then make even more money. It's the cycle of capitalism.

 

[subterrestrial]

The main problem is that... who could that first party be?

splatoon rep, bandana dee, gen 8 mon, a BOTW(2) character, ringfit etc

they could even put the emmi bot from metroid dread, or any long requested fan pick or even a smashOC

I do genuinely think we're getting King Boo or Gooigi tho

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Roy sorta negates this.
All it shows it that, time and time again, Fire Emblem is both given special treatment.

Roy was added in Smash 20 years ago. As a clone later in development than the other non-clone newcomers. To a game that was heavily rushed and crunched.
I don't think this is the same situation as a brand new DLC character for Ultimate.

And I kept on saying today that Smash's portrayal on Roy was likely a key factor as to why Sakurai plays things more safely.

 

[Guynamednelson]

they're still gonna pick someone that's more appealing to the general audiences

DLC hasn't always been about that. Even disregarding FE shilling, who outside of Smash fans will care that much about Lucas and Roy being DLC? Who outside of the FGC cared that much about Terry being added?

 

[DarthEnderX]

Hype is a judgment clouder.

Why do we need clear judgement? We're not landing planes here.

The main problem is that... who could that first party be?

King Hippo.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

DLC hasn't always been about that. Even disregarding FE shilling, who outside of Smash fans will care that much about Lucas and Roy being DLC? Who outside of the FGC cared that much about Terry being added?

These audiences are still larger than the relatively small amount of people who care about Golden Sun.

I'm not saying Isaac can't happen, I'm saying that it'd be risky to add a character from a franchise that's been dead for 11 years and hasn't had a good game in 19 years (yes, Lost Age is that old), so I can't reasonably think of Isaac as someone who is likely.

Banjo at least had the benefit of Microsoft and Nintendo already being in talks for stuff, but we know these talks were for Steve in Smash.

 

[Guynamednelson]

These audiences are still larger than the relatively small amount of people who care about Golden Sun

There is no way in hell that Roy fans were a bigger crowd. He had to deal with complaints about being a clone and sucking in both games that could be considered his debut. On top of that, unlike Lucas, he was an unlockable and his Smash game sold less, giving him an even bigger chance to be niche.

And yes, I know it'd be risky. Good thing Nintendo gives no ****s about what Smash fans consider safe and they haven't sold out the same way the fanbase has.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

There is no way in hell that Roy fans were a bigger crowd. He had to deal with complaints about being a clone and sucking in both games that could be considered his debut.

And yes, I know it'd be risky. Good thing Nintendo gives no ****s about what Smash fans consider safe.

Smash fans legit like Roy despite how trash he is, iirc. It's only FE fans who hate him... but then again, they hate most things, to the point where hating Fire Emblem is something the Smash and FE fanbase actually agree on these days.

As for Nintendo giving no ****... of course they don't. Us rulemaking speculators are such a minority compared to the broader Smash audience that it shouldn't be a surprise that we don't matter. But in hindsight, some of their picks make sense, like how Tekken is the best-selling franchise not named Smash or the fact that Sephiroth is one of the most iconic villains in all of gaming.

Just because they don't adhere to our "safe" picks doesn't mean their picks aren't safe at all. Banjo is probably the only pick that's nonsensical, and there's still enough stuff to give it a logical reason from the Ballot to Microsoft and Nintendo discussing about Steve.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Smash fans legit like Roy despite how trash he is, iirc.

But how many exactly liked him in the Melee days? It couldn't be more than the same amount as how many people total have bought GS when he's an unfamiliar character that you have to unlock. They didn't all go "woah cool fire sword".

from the Ballot

And if this is a logical reason for Banjo, it combined with the pass already having been sold to the mainstream are logical reasons for Isaac.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

But how many exactly liked him in the Melee days? It couldn't be around the same amount as how many people total have bought GS when he's an unfamiliar character that you have to unlock. They didn't all go "woah cool fire sword".

Enough for Sakurai to consider him over Young Link and Pichu, at least.

Since Roy and Lucas were explicitly stated to be spots reserved for a Melee and Brawl character respectively, these two had to be among the most popular characters from their respective games (not counting Ice Climbers who were impossible on 3DS and Snake because Konami is a **** company :V)

And no, I have no idea why we got Lucas over Wolf, that ****ing eludes me to this day.

 

[N3ON]

Once a character gets added to Smash, it's not just fans of that original game that are part of the audience. The GS fanbase is probably bigger than the specific FE6 fanbase, but after Melee, Roy was also a Smash character in addition to a Fire Emblem character. And a decently popular one as well in the Smash 4 days, especially for a clone. Particularly in Japan. And a Smash character, by and large, is more widely appealing than a GS character.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Ehhhhhhhh, they've gotten a lot better in that regard as of late. Even in that late 2000s/early-to-mid 2010s period that has a reputation for apparently being the era in which SEGA made almost nothing but Sonic and Yakuza, they still made quite a lot of other games - the important distinction to make here is that they've recently gotten a lot better at making use of their legacy IP. Either way, I don't think it's really fair to brush all that off just because a couple specific franchises haven't come back yet - and this is coming from someone who would die for, say, Skies of Arcadia or Virtual-ON to get something new (in the latter's case, at least, something new that isn't a Japan-only collection or a weird crossover game)

I guess the core of my frustration here is really just how off a lot of people's perception of SEGA's library really is. Really rustles my jimmies seeing the amount of people that essentially boil their legacy down to just Sonic, the Atlus stuff, and maybe Puyo and/or Yakuza. Basically, if it's not talked about on the newcomer thread, it might as well not exist. Granted, there have been moments where I feel they've been given a somewhat fairer shake - SEGA discussion did use to be pretty varied before Eggman became a speculation darling, and Phantasy Star has finally been getting some much-deserved attention as of late - but it's still pretty irritating whenever someone pulls the "well uhh actually, SEGA don't really have a lot of noteworthy IP outside of Sonic" card. Even worse is when their examples of the "small few other noteworthy IP" are, like, Monkey Ball and Billy Hatcher. Like, jeez, man: I love the All-Stars games to death, and they do feature a lot of genuinely important IP, but if there's something I don't like about them, it's that they convinced a whole generation of people that Billy Hatcher is one of the great pillars of SEGA history.

...Then again, I'm also not a big fan of the people that hold up a handful of their really big IP as The Ones That Matter and kinda just...dismiss everything else.

And that kinda leads into, like, the core of the core of my frustration: there's two big perceptions of SEGA's non-Sonic output floating around, and they're both pretty wack tbh. I think an anecdote that, like, perfectly sums up what I'm talking about is when I found a Twitter post that went something like "the "oh right, SEGA make games other than Sonic" starter pack", and it showed, like, AiAi, Billy Hatcher, Beat and NiGHTS. And then there was a reply that went "well these are what I think of when I think of SEGA stuff other than Sonic" and it was, like, Yakuza, Persona 5, Sakura Wars 2019 and PSO2. And, like, goddamn, that was it. That was exactly my problem: there are two prevailing perceptions of SEGA's library at play in the larger sphere of the interwebz, and I don't agree with either of them! I feel like these are both very tunnelvision-y points of view in relation to their IP that only take from a specific point of reference and ignore a large part of their legacy. So much of, like, the important ** SEGA's done over the years isn't acknowledged by either side. They're both very flawed points of view IMO. The thing is, like, there's gotta be a middle ground here. It's true that the All-Stars games aren't the best indicator of what are the most important SEGA IP are, there's a lot of big stuff they leave out. But also, I feel like it's super disingenuous to take The Current Big Stuff and dismiss everything else as completely irrelevant, because SEGA's older output abso-***ing-lutely has a place in their history as well. Even then, most of the big older stuff is ignored by the other side too, so a huge part of their history just gets no credit either way. And that's where we get back to the matter of Smash spec because this * has rubbed off on SEGA discussion here! You can see this in the "uhh well actually they don't have a lot of big stuff anyway" claims: it's either the people that have the starting roster for Superstars Tennis as their entire frame of reference, or the people that act like anything that isn't, like, in their top 5-10 sales figures is Totally Irrelevant (TM). And they're both ignoring such a huge chunk of the company's legacy.

It's frustrating, to say the least. And I guess that's why PS music being played at the Tokyo Olympics is such a big W to me, because it's like the ultimate proof that yes, their other stuff does have a legacy.

Sega really never tried to market their franchise branding well since they were always the company that just kept making new stuff than continuing the same old IPs. there was a moment in the 2000s were were Sonic Team was trying to get their Ips to have some synchronicity like having cameos featuring stuff from Sonic, Puyo Puyo, Phantasy Star, Samba, NiGHTs etc. but it never worked out since Puyo and PS died in the west, and the others didnt get new games.

Sega kinda also forgets they own some cool weird stuff like Napple Tale, Illbleed, Outrigger, Battle Golfer, that unironically could get some decent popularity just based off their premises but Japanese companies refuse to release a majority of their old stuff for whatever reason lol.

 

[Guynamednelson]

most popular pick from their respective games

More like a runner-up, since, you know, who I remember having the BIGGEST, and I mean BIGGEST demand out of any cut Melee veteran. He did have a vocal minority, I'll admit that, and Japan is fine with vocal minorities as they are legitimately large fandoms, because it's a nation where having a fanbase can matter too, not just having the biggest one.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

But how many exactly liked him in the Melee days? It couldn't be more than the same amount as how many people total have bought GS when he's an unfamiliar character that you have to unlock. They didn't all go "woah cool fire sword".

I get the impression that he was (and still is) kind of a meme in the competitive community.

Other than that though there's probably no real way of telling. Opinions weren't all over the internet back in 2001 like it is now.

And with how wide the audience for this series is, I wouldn't be surprised if even Piranha Plant gets a decent fanbase later on down the line.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

More like a runner-up, since, you know, who I remember having the BIGGEST, and I mean BIGGEST demand out of any cut Melee veteran. He did have a vocal minority, I'll admit that, and Japan is fine with vocal minorities as they are legitimately large fandoms, because it's a nation where having a fanbase can matter too, not having the biggest one.

Either way, I still doubt we're getting Isaac.

If we get him, fine, I'll just be wrong and you'll be right. I'll have no shame in admitting that and as long as his moveset's cool, I'll be down for it.

I just don't see it happening myself personally.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Either way, I still doubt we're getting Isaac.

If we get him, fine, I'll just be wrong and you'll be right. I'll have no shame in admitting that and as long as his moveset's cool, I'm down for it.

I just don't see it happening myself personally.

Look I'll be fine with anything that proves expecting Crash/MC/something as "hype" as them at the end is wrong, I just think Isaac has points in his favor that let him sneak past the "expected" crowd.

Then again maybe I should stop trying to convince people Isaac has a chance if I want him to "sneak past the 'expected' crowd".

 

[N3ON]

The Fire Emblem characters used to be pretty well-liked in the community when there were only three of them. Having popularity isn't wholly contingent on competitive viability, look at Mewtwo's history. People just liked the character, because hardly anyone outside Japan was familiar with FE6, and despite that, if you look at popularity polls during the Smash 4 era you'll see a substantial backing for Roy.

He and Mewtwo were the only cut Melee vets with any real popularity after the fact. But look back at how being cut aided in the demand of other fighters.

Isaac is popular too, of course, and I'd prefer to see him, but he lacks the benefit of previous playability. If he had it as well, yeah, he'd probably be more widely popular than Roy, given not only more people being familiar with GS than Roy's game, but because, presumably, he'd be unique. But that's just not the situation at hand.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Isaac is a possible character with the huge asterisk that they have to have wanted to end on a fan favorite from the core fanbase, and even then competition is steep.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Look I'll be fine with anything that proves expecting Crash/MC/something as "hype" as them at the end is wrong, I just think Isaac has points in his favor that let him sneak past the "expected" crowd.

Then again maybe I should stop trying to convince people Isaac has a chance if I want him to "sneak past the 'expected' crowd".

Honestly, even if people expect him, we'd still be surprised because of the state Golden Sun is in.

 

[Theguy123]

I’d do genuinely anything to see a king boo smash bros trailer. Imagine Darkhon taking on the heroes and Luigi’s just stood there and you see the poltergeist just randomly shaking. Everyone’s just looking at Luigi so he takes it off to have a look and then king boo just comes flying out of it and straight into the battle. I’d do anything for that

 

[Merengue]

The deadline for the final fighter is December 31st.

SMT V is coming out before the final character does.

Wait. I think SMT 5 is more likely to get a character, but what if it gets a spirit event instead?

 

[Noler_Mass]

Man, Masterhand sure was smaller in the trailer for smash 64… I feel like he’s written off for his… girth and boss status. But that would be an epic way to end Ultimate, if they managed to find a way. Idk just thinking.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Man, Masterhand sure was smaller in the trailer for smash 64… I feel like he’s written off for his… girth and boss status. But that would be an epic way to end Ultimate, if they managed to find a way. Idk just thinking.

A smaller Master Hand with a proper balanced moveset would be incredible, honestly.

I can already see him do some finger running to dash around. Because why not?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Man, Masterhand sure was smaller in the trailer for smash 64… I feel like he’s written off for his… girth and boss status. But that would be an epic way to end Ultimate, if they managed to find a way. Idk just thinking.

Eh...I'd prefer it be a base, bonus, or pseudo character if anything.

EDIT: Especially since Master Hand is already playable, just only once during World of Light. It just doesn't feel right to then make him purchasable.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

EDIT: Especially since Master Hand is already playable, just only once during World of Light. It just doesn't feel right to then make him purchasable.

People would absolutely throw money at a playable Master Hand though.

 

[Noler_Mass]

yeah I doubt many people would forgo their purchase because of a WOL mini game, if anything that just whets their appetite. plus Nintendo definitely wouldn’t care about the money angle.

 

[Merengue]

Just a random question. Are there any characters that have indirect representation besides Porky? People are torn up between deciding if he is actually in the game or not. Just wanted to know if there are any more characters that are in the same situation as him.