Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Guynamednelson]

Y'know, I've seen some people say that we can't get ATs promoted because if it were possible it would've happened earlier... But I also remember the same argument being used to shoot down a Bandai-Namco rep, up until we got Kazuya. I can't really say if it was the same people who originally used that bit of reasoning, but I can't help but draw some parallels there.

But yeah, I think "It hasn't happened yet and so it won't happen" is an incredibly flimsy piece of evidence that only serves to ignore the possibility of any patterns being broken. Yeah, we may have predicted some of them, but the DLC has had many first instances of something and I feel like we shouldn't overlook any possibilities just because "It hasn't happened yet."

If anything it would've happened AFTER the big characters got in anyway, since ATs are for the most part smaller than Sephiroth or Kazuya.

 

[SKX31]

nah man they killed itself by keeping the DLC on disc and making the stages massive, the stones could've worked but the game was simply rushed out the door

It's worth remembering that the Gems were also paid DLC, a bunch of them came bundled with the Special Edition, and specific Gem packs were retailer-exclusive. Oh and the retailer-exclusive Gems could be straight up better.

Yeah the Gem system was a major fiasco in itself.

That and the second video also details its main gameplay-related issues at launch (summarized with "Street Fighter X TimeOut"). Worth mentioning not only due to itself but also since a Gem category was + Damage %... but Gems were really clunky to use overall.

That's not to say the game was horrible, but it's a case where the flaws took over discussion.

Nope, this means AiAi is CP11. With such adorable face, how could anyone be mad at him, even if he's the last character?

Okay, couple things. If AiAi ever gets in he needs:

First, the Magical Girl dance as a taunt, because yes:

And a cameo in the trailer by 2's villain Dr. Bad-Boon. Who is behind some heinous crimes:

 

[Theguy123]

I will say, I recently checked other spirit events, and to my knowledge Shadow has never been used in one of them, it’s a similar scenario to Tails. There is likely some other factor for his exclusion from this spirit event that we are missing.

The thing is though that tails can appear in spirit events when unlocked in WOL and has appeared in multiple events over the year. Same with every of sonic spirit that is unlockable in the spirit board. The only one who doesn’t appear is shadow and we could sit here and say “well there’s probably something behind the scenes that prevents him from being used” and if that was the case then most of the sonic spirits wouldn’t be allowed in other events or shadow wouldn’t of been allowed back as an assist trophy, knuckles wouldn’t be an assist trophy and sakurai probabaly wouldn’t of been able to mention shadow in his anniversary pictures.

 

[Guynamednelson]

And a cameo in the trailer by 2's villain Dr. Bad-Boon. Who is behind some heinous crimes:

bad-boon...win

wait what do you mean that's the wrong monkey for the meme?

 

[RileyXY1]

Shadow not being in Spirit Events means nothing to me because Min Min and Pyra were in Spirit Events as far as I know.

 

[Perkilator]

4chan leak

assuming its real we'll get time limited smash spirit for Monkey Ball like they did with the monster hunter stories amiibo

Instantly fake

There's no Solaire Spirit despite the existence of his amiibo

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

This feels like a very arbitrary set of conditions to apply around third party inclusions when not everything even here super makes sense. Like, Sonic associated with Nintendo may be the case nowadays, but when he joined Brawl he'd just barely been around to have some GBA and Gamecube games post Sega's decision to go third party and there wasn't that same relationship. He was actually in basically the exact same position Crash is currently in when he was added and he was recognized as just an iconic character people wanted back then in the same vein that Crash is now. I'd also point out that special connections to Sakurai don't really make a whole lot of sense as Nintendo still chose them at the end of the day and even if Sakurai suggested them to Nintendo, that does show that they're not going to exclusively only pick the biggest and most prestigious third parties.

I'm a huge Castlevania fan and I wouldn't necessarily say that it absolutely defines the very broad and very inclusive realm of 2D action platformers anymore than any number of other titles and series with notable prestige. It's a fantastic series that many are fond of, but it's not the "end all, be all" most popular 2D action-platformer series either and has some elements that are common of the genre, while also missing some others.

I'm also confused how Crash isn't really that iconic when Crash has been an extremely successful series that defined PS1 platformers and is one of the more recognizable mascots in all of gaming. To the point where I'd say Crash defines 3D platformers better than any other other franchise except Mario at this point. He's already on par with the other third party additions and represents a similar level of clout and recognition. Plus Crash himself is super recognizable in a way others may not be despite being from a big recognizable franchise, as very well evidenced by people's general failure to properly recognize Kazuya and all immediately defaulting to Heihachi if they even recognized the trailer as Tekken (and then a number of the most forced reactions in the world lol).

I don't think third parties are under the requirements you think they are, and even if I agree we're not going to suddenly see like Gex or someone show up and that third parties will lean towards more popular and recognizable inclusions on average, I think there's a great deal of characters that can fit that kind of framework without issue.

My logic was a little flawed with Sonic and Mega Man I'll admit, I probably should've just grouped them with Banjo as being highly requested for a while. But Sonic was added in after the game got delayed due to fan demand, and while Mega Man saw a bunch of support during the Brawl days, it wasn't until Smash 4 when he finally got in. I feel Crash will experience a similar fate, sort of like Isabelle, K. Rool and Chrom in Smash 4.

I'm not arguing that Crash shouldn't be in Smash. My main point against him was that I don't think he's requested enough or has been requested long enough to make it into Ultimate. Next game? Easy frontrunner. But for right now, I don't see it happening due to major support for him not starting until after Smash Ultimate was first announced. Crash has done a good job staying relevant these past few years, but even so a character that's seen as such a big request like him would most certainly be revealed at E3 or the Game Awards. It's possible they wait until December to reveal him but it's still not super likely. But of course Crash is gonna be more recognized than any Tekken character by Nintendo fans, Tekken isn't on the Switch and has only had 3 games prior, two of which were handheld games, meanwhile Crash has received a remastered collection, racing game and new entry over the past few years, while always being a speculated character. At the end of the day, Nintendo wants to sell the pass, so they're gonna put their biggest, farthest reaching characters in the middle of the pass. For Fighter Pass 1 it was Hero and Banjo, and for Fighter Pass 2 it was Steve and Sephiroth. It makes no sense for them to end on a big character from a financial standpoint nor have they done it before, which is the biggest thing against Crash atm. And I wasn't saying Crash wasn't iconic. I'm saying that without the Nintendo rivalry, he didn't impact much as far as gaming as a whole. Recognizable sure, but he's a $50 million Banjo as far as I can tell. A rival to Mario sure, but a rival that they basically gave up on after the PS1. He's the most noteworthy unimpactful on gaming third party character I can think of.

My main argument though was against third parties that don't have much in terms of leaving an impact on gaming. They may be known, but most third parties playable in Smash tend to be from series often revered as the best in their genre, and if they're not they're characters that have been highly requested for a while. I don't get your section on Castlevania at all considering it's part of the name of an entire genre right alongside Metroid, which has inspired many other games to be made.

I'd be curious to hear who you consider fits the criteria though, cause there's definitely plenty of options (deconfirmed or not)

 

[N3ON]

My logic was a little flawed with Sonic and Mega Man I'll admit, I probably should've just grouped them with Banjo as being highly requested for a while. But Sonic was added in after the game got delayed due to fan demand, and while Mega Man saw a bunch of support during the Brawl days, it wasn't until Smash 4 when he finally got in. I feel Crash will experience a similar fate, sort of like Isabelle, K. Rool and Chrom in Smash 4.

I'm not arguing that Crash shouldn't be in Smash. My main point against him was that I don't think he's requested enough or has been requested long enough to make it into Ultimate. Next game? Easy frontrunner. But for right now, I don't see it happening due to major support for him not starting until after Smash Ultimate was first announced. Crash has done a good job staying relevant these past few years, but even so a character that's seen as such a big request like him would most certainly be revealed at E3 or the Game Awards. It's possible they wait until December to reveal him but it's still not super likely. But of course Crash is gonna be more recognized than any Tekken character by Nintendo fans, Tekken isn't on the Switch and has only had 3 games prior, two of which were handheld games, meanwhile Crash has received a remastered collection, racing game and new entry over the past few years, while always being a speculated character. At the end of the day, Nintendo wants to sell the pass, so they're gonna put their biggest, farthest reaching characters in the middle of the pass. For Fighter Pass 1 it was Hero and Banjo, and for Fighter Pass 2 it was Steve and Sephiroth. It makes no sense for them to end on a big character from a financial standpoint nor have they done it before, which is the biggest thing against Crash atm. And I wasn't saying Crash wasn't iconic. I'm saying that without the Nintendo rivalry, he didn't impact much as far as gaming as a whole. Recognizable sure, but he's a $50 million Banjo as far as I can tell. A rival to Mario sure, but a rival that they basically gave up on after the PS1. He's the most noteworthy unimpactful on gaming third party character I can think of.

My main argument though was against third parties that don't have much in terms of leaving an impact on gaming. They may be known, but most third parties playable in Smash tend to be from series often revered as the best in their genre, and if they're not they're characters that have been highly requested for a while. I don't get your section on Castlevania at all considering it's part of the name of an entire genre right alongside Metroid, which has inspired many other games to be made.

I'd be curious to hear who you consider fits the criteria though, cause there's definitely plenty of options (deconfirmed or not)

I don't think Crash is the frontrunner he's been made out to be for the entirety of DLC, but in theory all you need is for Smash-specific popularity to predate the last round of character selections to be included due on those grounds, which Crash achieves. Of course, unlike, for example, Banjo, Crash isn't limited to solely getting in due to the fanbase's efforts.

Other than that I think all those parameters you listed before are of greatly ranging salience, from obvious to irrelevant. Trying to subcategorize inclusions further is a bad idea, but at its core tenets you can really boil down all inclusions to popularity, prominence, promotion, or some mix. Even the outliers who were included for unique reasons still fit under one or more of those categories just based on who they are. And there are some characters broached in discussion who stretch the bounds of fitting those qualities, but Crash isn't one of them. That said, I don't think his chances are all they've been cracked up to be either.

I think he rests somewhere in the plausible but not overly likely range, and has since the jump. It's just that he's resided in that strata very consistently, while seemingly all the other pieces keep getting shuffled around, at times looking more and/or less likely.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

This is off topic but I was thinking more about indie mii costume and the more I think about Cadence, the more I think she could actually be playable and be a darkhorse pic of the pass. Cadence of Hyrule is one of the few first party Nintendo game to not have a spirit event. The game released in summer 2019, which is pretty much around the time negotiation for pass 2 took place. Nintendo could have seen the rising popularity of indie character and thought that she would be a good fit. She could also fit my theory about the final fighter be a bit more complex, because she probably would have rhythm mechanics and maybe rogue like elements too. What do you all think about her chance as playable?

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Rayman's always been more likely than Crash in my eyes

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

Trying to subcategorize inclusions further is a bad idea,

I mean no offense but without attempting to narrow options based on patterns and criteria for current fighters, speculation can become pretty stale. I get it to an extent but at the same time it seems more like wishful thinking to, say, expect the last fighter to be an assist trophy promotion.

Sure, it could happen, but since it hasn't happened yet there's absolutely no reason to expect it to happen now, so I don't see the point in entertaining the idea in speculation. Who would be promoted makes sense to speculate, but it's kind of a waste to speculate the likelihood of something that hasn't happened yet and has no precedent to happen now.

They made one exception it seems when Sakurai almost added Springman, and even then he pretty openly stated that had the timing worked better he would've fit an Arms character into the base game. Plus they weren't even planning on doing Fighter Pass 2 anyways, so an assist trophy, costume and some spirits were the original final plan for Arms representation.

What I'm trying to say is I don't see why we have to attempt to leave the net to cast who we think the last character will be so wide when there's certain choices that are just incredibly unlikely

Also GilTheGreat19 I 100% agree

 

[CureParfait]

Rayman's always been more likely than Crash in my eyes

I agree with that. To be honest I have a hunch that it is likelier that Crash might end up being Mii Costumed instead.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I mean no offense but without attempting to narrow options based on patterns and criteria for current fighters, speculation can become pretty stale. I get it to an extent but at the same time it seems more like wishful thinking to, say, expect the last fighter to be an assist trophy promotion.

Sure, it could happen, but since it hasn't happened yet there's absolutely no reason to expect it to happen now, so I don't see the point in entertaining the idea in speculation. Who would be promoted makes sense to speculate, but it's kind of a waste to speculate the likelihood of something that hasn't happened yet and has no precedent to happen now.

They made one exception it seems when Sakurai almost added Springman, and even then he pretty openly stated that had the timing worked better he would've fit an Arms character into the base game. Plus they weren't even planning on doing Fighter Pass 2 anyways, so an assist trophy, costume and some spirits were the original final plan for Arms representation.

What I'm trying to say is I don't see why we have to attempt to leave the net to cast who we think the last character will be so wide when there's certain choices that are just incredibly unlikely

Also GilTheGreat19 I 100% agree

Honestly there's so little evidence that any and all "who's it gonna be?" speculation is absolutely pointless so why not just talk about whoever?

 

[SpecterFlower]

I think im gonna throw all my support behind Resident Evil, even though it had a spirit event i don't think that disconfirms a fighter (see heihachi). I just hope it's not Chris, he would be a little boring. I could see smash including RE4 Leon, RE1 Jill, RE5 Wesker or Nemesis.

also it would probably add what is maybe (besides Monster's Hunter) one of the most deserving series for a fighter imo.

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

I think im gonna throw all my support behind Resident Evil, even though it had a spirit event i don't think that disconfirms a fighter (see heihachi). I just hope it's not Chris, he would be a little boring. I could see smash including RE4 Leon, RE1 Jill, RE5 Wesker or Nemesis.

also it would probably add what is maybe (besides Monster's Hunter) one of the most deserving series for a fighter imo.

I agree that Resident Evil is most in need of a rep but

"I don't think a spirit event deconfirms a fighter" uses a mii costume as proof

 

[Inferno7]

I think im gonna throw all my support behind Resident Evil, even though it had a spirit event i don't think that disconfirms a fighter (see heihachi). I just hope it's not Chris, he would be a little boring. I could see smash including RE4 Leon, RE1 Jill, RE5 Wesker or Nemesis.

also it would probably add what is maybe (besides Monster's Hunter) one of the most deserving series for a fighter imo.

Same, I find it incredibly odd that in spite of getting a spirit event along with being one of Capcom's biggest cash cows to this day, they didn't get a single costume in this pass (the support for a RE rep is at least comparable to that of Dovahkiin which Sakurai said was frequently asked for).

 

[Momotsuki]

One reason I kind of hope Crash can make it in is that the reveal trailer writes itself. Take the old Smash 64 commercial and have that costumed dude crash (no pun intended) the party.

 

[N3ON]

I mean no offense but without attempting to narrow options based on patterns and criteria for current fighters, speculation can become pretty stale. I get it to an extent but at the same time it seems more like wishful thinking to, say, expect the last fighter to be an assist trophy promotion.

Sure, it could happen, but since it hasn't happened yet there's absolutely no reason to expect it to happen now, so I don't see the point in entertaining the idea in speculation. Who would be promoted makes sense to speculate, but it's kind of a waste to speculate the likelihood of something that hasn't happened yet and has no precedent to happen now.

They made one exception it seems when Sakurai almost added Springman, and even then he pretty openly stated that had the timing worked better he would've fit an Arms character into the base game. Plus they weren't even planning on doing Fighter Pass 2 anyways, so an assist trophy, costume and some spirits were the original final plan for Arms representation.

What I'm trying to say is I don't see why we have to attempt to leave the net to cast who we think the last character will be so wide when there's certain choices that are just incredibly unlikely

Also GilTheGreat19 I 100% agree

But if your narrowing the routes to inclusion suggest a character like Crash has little chance the parameters are far too limiting. It's categorical ascription based on your interpretation of solely what we have now, which in the past would've and did preclude the chance of getting characters like Ryu, Cloud, Bayo, Richter, Joker, Banjo, Sephiroth, Kazuya, etc etc. in the eyes of the fanbase. It's not just thinking inside the box, it's making smaller boxes within the box.

The inverse where everything is on the table, no matter how outlandish, while maybe technically true, is also too amorphous and results in directionless speculation, but I would argue that adhering to a fixed number of routes predicated on subcategorizing what we've received so far makes things stale in the other direction. Like most things, a balance between proven and novel would probably reflect the nature of inclusions even if not the actual fighters we receive, and thus be productive speculation without being too nebulous or too confined.

I do agree that some people do cast the net too widely, but I think your methodology, and equally no offense meant, ratifies observational categories the likes of which have been amended many times over because they insufficiently anticipated what was to come. In essence, it goes too far in the other direction.

 

[Perkilator]

then we got a sonic anniversary spirit event and they went out their way to include every sonic spirit that’s in the game and can be obtained through the spirit board apart from shadow for some reason. Just think an assist trophy upgrade could be something to keep an eye on.

IIRC, they also excluded Eggman, Tails & Knuckles,

 

[CannonStreak]

IIRC, they also excluded Eggman, Tails & Knuckles,

With that said, Eggman, Tails and Knuckles will be revealed as the last DLC as a trio character.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Something I think people tend to forget in regards to third party inclusions is that unless they have a special connection to Sakurai (Persona 5 and Smash coming about mainly due to SNK games) or are heavily requested (Bayonetta won the ballot, Banjo was heavily requested even as far back as Melee), they’re from genre defining third party IP’s (Street Fighter, Tekken, Metal Gear, Castlevania, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, Minecraft), so synonymous with Nintendo that they have to be there (Sonic, Mega Man) or have transcended third party and are just insanely recognizable even to non-gamers (Pac-Man)

A character like Crash for example doesn’t fit the criteria enough imo, but someone like Doomguy would since he’s kind of the grandfather of FPS’ (if you ignore Wolfenstein). It’s kind of why I’ve been hesitant to throw support behind characters like Rayman and Phoenix Wright. It’d be great to see them, but as far as impactful third parties go they’re basically a drop in the pond, and unlike say Sonic, Mega Man or Banjo, they’re not heavily requested enough to get in on that criteria. I think Crash for example could reach that tier sometime, but I think Ultimate is too late for him.

The easiest choice for a last fighter would’ve been Resident Evil imo, but the spirit event really puts a damper on that

Just some general thoughts regarding third party inclusions

I agree with your point for the most part. Third party picks have typically leaned into big picks & I imagine that will be common with them going forward.

But I would move Sonic into the genre defining category; the Sonic series is huge to this day & it’s one of the biggest series in Smash. He’s definitely not just a heavily requested character with strong Nintendo ties. He’s all three.

I’d also say you’re wrong about Crash. He definitely fits into the fan demand category & I’d say his series is another genre definer, especially if you’re counting Castlevania as one.

 

[SneakyLink]

IIRC, they also excluded Eggman, Tails & Knuckles,

Eggman's spirit battle appears to be exclusive to World of Light/Rematching and Knuckles has no spirit battle.

I'm not really sure why Tails is excluded, though if I had to guess it's because the spirit won't appear on the spirit board until you obtain it once, whether it be via World of Light or summoning.

 

[Theguy123]

IIRC, they also excluded Eggman, Tails & Knuckles,

Knuckles doesn’t have a spirit battle and can only be summoned, tails can only appear in certain spirit events and eggman is WOL exclusive

 

[SNEKeater]

I think im gonna throw all my support behind Resident Evil, even though it had a spirit event i don't think that disconfirms a fighter (see heihachi). I just hope it's not Chris, he would be a little boring. I could see smash including RE4 Leon, RE1 Jill, RE5 Wesker or Nemesis.

also it would probably add what is maybe (besides Monster's Hunter) one of the most deserving series for a fighter imo.

Not gonna lie. In the past I wasn't a big fan of Chris because I never liked him a lot. Not to the point of disliking him, it was mostly indifference.
Like, it's not like character development is one of the best things in Resident Evil. It's not the strength of the series, at least historically. But even with that in mind I always found him a bit bland compared to the others.

But with the time I've growing on him and I appreciate him a lot more to be honest. I still like Leon and Jill more, but unlike before now I think Chris is quite cool. Part of that I guess it's because of his role in RE7 and specially 8 which are very interesting IMO.

I agree that after Tekken, Resident Evil doesn't feel that out of the running, though I'm feeling Ace Attorney for some reason if CP11 is third party. AA/Phoenix Wright not having any content in Smash is kinda bizarre at this point, even if it is certainly a smaller series compared to Resident Evil, Monster Hunter or Devil May Cry.

The cool thing about a Resident Evil character is that they would, for sure, bring some different alts, which I appreciate a lot. Leon would probably have his RE4 design, one alt with his iconic jacket and one alt without it. And then an alt for his also iconic RE2 police look. Maybe a RE6 alt as well?
Jill would have his classic RE1 design and of course, the RE3 one. In RE5 she has a few designs and I'd love the one from Lost in Nightmares, though I doubt they would include it. IMO the best Jill design.

 

[Perkilator]

Eggman's spirit battle appears to be exclusive to World of Light/Rematching and Knuckles has no spirit battle.

I'm not really sure why Tails is excluded, though if I had to guess it's because the spirit won't appear on the spirit board until you obtain it once, whether it be via World of Light or summoning.

Knuckles doesn’t have a spirit battle and can only be summoned, tails can only appear in certain spirit events and eggman is WOL exclusive

Oh yeah, I forgot.

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

But if your narrowing the routes to inclusion suggest a character like Crash has little chance the parameters are far too limiting. It's categorical ascription based on your interpretation of solely what we have now, which in the past would've and did preclude the chance of getting characters like Ryu, Cloud, Bayo, Richter, Joker, Banjo, Sephiroth, Kazuya, etc etc. in the eyes of the fanbase. It's not just thinking inside the box, it's making smaller boxes within the box.

The inverse where everything is on the table, no matter how outlandish, while maybe technically true, is also too amorphous and results in directionless speculation, but I would argue that adhering to a fixed number of routes predicated on subcategorizing what we've received so far makes things stale in the other direction. Like most things, a balance between proven and novel would probably reflect the nature of inclusions even if not the actual fighters we receive, and thus be productive speculation without being too nebulous or too confined.

I do agree that some people do cast the net too widely, but I think your methodology, and equally no offense meant, ratifies observational categories the likes of which have been amended many times over because they insufficiently anticipated what was to come. In essence, it goes too far in the other direction.

well to that I ask where is that perfect balance? cause for some people they insist any and all characters can get in no matter what, meanwhile there's people that shut down the possibility of any character because of how unpredictable Smash can be, so where is the middle? Because trying to say any character is deconfirmed gets you refuted but leaving possibilities open to any character makes you come off as unrealistic. I guess in that sense I'd much rather narrow the options and be wrong than expect tons of different possibilities and get a safe bet

 

[cothero]

The more i think about it, the more i'm convinced that the RE sprit event back from fall 2019 could be a red herring to people not expect a RE character as DLC. Sakurai is smart. He let everyone believe that a Tekken character wouldn't happen when Heihachi's costume was released with Min Min, so it's pretty possible that he's holding a Capcom rep for the very last minute. RE is iconic and makes a ****load of sense to have that kind of representation in the game algonside Street Fighter and Mega Man.

That or a ****ing Monster Hunter character, and i hope that doen't end up being the case.

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

The more i think about it, the more i'm convinced that the RE sprit event back from fall 2019 could be a red herring to people not expect a RE character as DLC. Sakurai is smart. He let everyone believe that a Tekken character wouldn't happen when Heihachi's costume was released with Min Min, so it's pretty possible that he's holding a Capcom rep for the very last minute. RE is iconic and makes a ****load of sense to have that kind of representation in the game algonside Street Fighter and Mega Man.

That or a ****ing Monster Hunter character, and i hope that doen't end up being the case.

I honestly have my doubts. With Heihachi, it was content carried over from the previous game, and isn't a spirit event like Resident Evil. You could argue that because the spirit event happened during the first pass that they'd still have a shot in FP2, but they were also added after the second wave was announced. I just don't think they would've done that event even after already announcing the second wave unless they were going to make them fighters

 

[SpecterFlower]

I agree that Resident Evil is most in need of a rep but

"I don't think a spirit event deconfirms a fighter" uses a mii costume as proof

true, it's very flimsy. though I do think that they planned to add kazuya in before they added heihachi which is why I think franchise can get repped through DLC and then get a character a few packs later anyway. it's not really the mii fighter just that a franchise that's already been added through DLC can be added again anyway.

basically Capcom need's more characters, they have the first big horror franchise as well as one of the biggest franchise in gaming, the first big character action franchise, one of the most influential visual novel series and one of the most popular ips in gaming with monster hunter (world is up to 18 million, rise which released just a few months ago already passed 7 million despite being switch exclusive) none of which have a rep, though i don't think "deservedness" is required as a 3rd party character these are still pretty odd exclusions.

 

[RileyXY1]

The more i think about it, the more i'm convinced that the RE sprit event back from fall 2019 could be a red herring to people not expect a RE character as DLC. Sakurai is smart. He let everyone believe that a Tekken character wouldn't happen when Heihachi's costume was released with Min Min, so it's pretty possible that he's holding a Capcom rep for the very last minute. RE is iconic and makes a ****load of sense to have that kind of representation in the game algonside Street Fighter and Mega Man.

That or a ****ing Monster Hunter character, and i hope that doen't end up being the case.

All of RE's popular characters were in that Spirit Event.

 

[RoboFist]

Y'know, I've seen some people say that we can't get ATs promoted because if it were possible it would've happened earlier... But I also remember the same argument being used to shoot down a Bandai-Namco rep, up until we got Kazuya. I can't really say if it was the same people who originally used that bit of reasoning, but I can't help but draw some parallels there.

But yeah, I think "It hasn't happened yet and so it won't happen" is an incredibly flimsy piece of evidence that only serves to ignore the possibility of any patterns being broken. Yeah, we may have predicted some of them, but the DLC has had many first instances of something and I feel like we shouldn't overlook any possibilities just because "It hasn't happened yet."

Let me preface this by saying that this is only my opinion and I'm not trying to gatekeep or whatever. Obviously fan rules are silly and aside from one rule specified by Sakurai himself (character must be from a video game), there's nothing 100% concrete in speculation.

Okay, all that being said, I think we've all been talking about "AT promotions" all wrong. We're looking at it from the perspective of jaded, mostly-western gamers, many of which prefer playing Smash with tournament-legal rulesets. Not all of us think of the game this way, but statistically, most of us do. We look at ATs the same way we look at Mii costumes: a death sentence for a character (which, c'mon guys, they're not). We think, "If Nintendo really wanted to bring Waluigi into Smash, they'd make him a real fighter!"

We aren't at all looking at ATs the same way Sakurai, Sora Ltd, and Nintendo are. The amount of time, consideration, and even licensing involved in bringing ATs to life is quite a bit more than I think a lot of us assume. They got entire segments dedicated to them in Smash Directs. Sakurai and his team seem proud of their work with them (as they should be!). They don't see ATs as a waste whatsoever.

Honestly, I can't imagine Sakurai or Nintendo wanting to take a character that they already consider in the game and make them playable. Sure, it's completely possible that they could, but from a business and personal standpoint, why would they want to?

Then you have another problem: With only one slot left, upgrading an AT would only cause vitriol between people who wanted their favorite AT promoted and people who wanted to see a brand new franchise altogether, right?

Let's say Waluigi got promoted. What about the Isaac fans? People who wanted Alucard over the Belmonts or Spring Man over Min Min? Lyn, Midna, Krystal, Shadow, Shovel Knight, Bomberman, Zero, Knuckles, Takamaru, Sukapon, Skull Kid, all of these characters have big fanbases all across the world who feel they should be the one to get the "real fighter" treatment. Not to mention the overwhelming amount of people who wanted to see something brand new brought into Smash. You thought Byleth had a negative reaction, I promise any AT promotion as the final DLC in Smash Ultimate would be 100 times worse.

Again, they could do it, but they'd be really dumb to. It would be an absolutely disastrous way for Nintendo to wrap up one of their biggest titles and what Sakurai considers his "life's work", as well as the most legendary crossover in video game history.

Spoiler

...which I guess means it'll definitely happen, because Nintendo

edit: grammar

 

[cothero]

All of RE's popular characters were in that Spirit Event.

Yup, so what? Spirits have become DLC fighters before.

 

[Cosmic77]

The more i think about it, the more i'm convinced that the RE sprit event back from fall 2019 could be a red herring to people not expect a RE character as DLC. Sakurai is smart. He let everyone believe that a Tekken character wouldn't happen when Heihachi's costume was released with Min Min, so it's pretty possible that he's holding a Capcom rep for the very last minute. RE is iconic and makes a ****load of sense to have that kind of representation in the game algonside Street Fighter and Mega Man.

That or a ****ing Monster Hunter character, and i hope that doen't end up being the case.

I doubt either RE or MH is involved with F11 at this point. RE because there was literally no point to add them back when they were added in the first place; they could've passed on making them entirely and no one would've blinked an eye. MH because we've gotten so much content from that series this year alone. All the costumes have returned and we're getting a promotional Spirit soon.

I know both are iconic, but as we've seen with Dante, Geno, and several others before them, not everyone who's well-known or popular will have a happy ending.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I heard someone speculating the 6th slot could of have been last-minute given the few seconds it took for CP11 slot to appear after the others upon being announced and perhaps Resident Evil was planned for Base game or the first pass but given Pass 2 being developed which wasn't going to happen at first were finally able to add Resident Evil rep to the pass.

Certainly would fit fix/second chance theory.

Something to consider.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I promise any AT promotion as the final DLC in Smash Ultimate would be 100 times worse

As someone who fears the final character being more hated than Byleth, I don't think they'll be THAT hated unless the AT is from FE. Sure there'll be some ******** that CP11 wasn't Crash but you should've expected someone less iconic than him to be CP11 in the first place.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I heard someone speculating the 6th slot could of have been last-minute given the few seconds it took for CP11 slot to appear after the others upon being announced and perhaps Resident Evil was planned for Base game or the first pass but given Pass 2 being developed which wasn't going to happen at first were finally able to add Resident Evil rep to the pass.

Certainly would fit fix/second chance theory.

Something to consider.

I...don't think editing to make a reveal more dramatic is an indication of anything...other than the reveal itself of course.

 

[Inferno7]

I agree that Resident Evil is most in need of a rep but

"I don't think a spirit event deconfirms a fighter" uses a mii costume as proof

To be absolutely fair, y'all would be saying that Tekken is out prior to Kazuya's inclusion (me as well, but that's exactly why I'm changing my stance now).
''Because it hasn't happened yet it won't happen!'' We've been hearing the same song and dance for more than 5 times in a row

 

[GilTheGreat19]

The more i think about it, the more i'm convinced that the RE sprit event back from fall 2019 could be a red herring to people not expect a RE character as DLC. Sakurai is smart. He let everyone believe that a Tekken character wouldn't happen when Heihachi's costume was released with Min Min, so it's pretty possible that he's holding a Capcom rep for the very last minute. RE is iconic and makes a ****load of sense to have that kind of representation in the game algonside Street Fighter and Mega Man.

That brings the question:
Would he execute 2 potential red herrings in a row? We don't know for sure, but the Heihachi costume COULD'VE been a red herring trying to cover up Kazuya.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

As someone who fears the final character being more hated than Byleth, I don't think they'll be THAT hated unless the AT is from FE.

Which you won't have to worry about because Tiki would take a lot more resources to implement than Pyra/Myth-...

...

I really did just forget that Lyn exists huh...

...

Aaaand Black Knight.

 

[Idon]

I don't think they'll be THAT hated unless the AT is from FE.

Don't worry, my love for Lyn will counterbalance the hate of the entire Smash community.