Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Nekoo]

Yes, although that character got decided on in January 2020 at the very very latest, even sooner if the Byleth presentation was recorded even earlier, which I think could be enough time to work it into the schedule to have the usual three month gap between characters after Kazuya.

The character could have been decided on January 2020 at the latest, but maybe, unlike the others who probably already had work on conceptualization and with how complicated the FP2 pass characters were, they perhaps took time with licencing, agreeing and such putting them in that awkward spot.

Hard to tell honestly, I just think the supposed big gap isn't for nothing. Either that character bring it's whole game with it, and is the most complexe mofo around, or he was a late addition to the plan

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

I wonder where all the character's heads have gone.

some images were sized differently, couldn't do much about it after making it lol

I find your placements of Kiryu and Tracer interesting

I don't see a reason why Kiryu couldn't get in, especially since Sega clearly cares about the Yakuza series. Unless he hasn't appeared on a Nintendo console then forget he's there. As for Tracer, again it's more so I don't see why she couldn't get in really, but I kept her lower because I don't think the demand is quite there for her to become a fighter nor do I think Overwatch would be the Blizzard rep they'd go with. I tend to narrow options for speculation by finding characters that don't really have things going against their chances. The 4 characters in the highest tier (as well as Nahobino above for those that missed it) are characters that I'm hard pressed to find reasons why they couldn't get in

Never quite understood why people think Frisk is a likely character. I mean the only reason Sans was included is because he's the most popular Undertale character.

for the sake of not bloating the chat again I'll just link the possible signs: https://smashboards.com/threads/fri...t-frisk-supporter-thread.459047/post-24462875

 

[Perkilator]

We're rating Crash and Master Chief in RTC today.

 

[Slime Master]

IIRC you can use code to figure out things like tempo and time signature by analyzing raw sound files, though that may not be practical to do while loading in a match or on-the-fly. I believe the song is client-side in online matches so a rhythm character that uses the song wouldn't work there anyway. Also such a character would be a pain to play for a song like Vs.Marx that changes time signatures a bunch.

 

[Technomage]

Yeah, a rhythm-based character that involves the BGM does not sound worthwhile at all.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I seriously hope when the next Direct is announced there isn't that much "pleasedonthavecp11pleasedonthavecp11pleasedonthavecp11"

 

[MarioRaccoon]

What do you want for the last “premium” mii costume ?? (Costume + song). So far, its been indie characters (sans, cuphead and shantae) so I don’t think they will move from there. IMO, we need a hollow knight Mii Costume, its on of the best indie games of past decade.

ps: a rhythm game fighter mechanic should be about pressing the attacks buttons in certain rhythms or patrons.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

• Assign a BPM for nearly every single song in the game.
• Take into account tempo changes that can occur during the song.
• Make fighter's attacks dependent on the current song.
• Remeber that some songs switch to completely different ones as a fight ends.
• Remember that stage morph exists.
• Remember that some items change the current track.
• ???
• Agony

It'd be awful in terms of accessibility as well. How do you let people with no sense of rhythm play this character.

• Also remember that items that "change the music" don't actually change the music. They're sound effects.

You can save the accessibility issue with a rhythm indicator though.

 

[Technomage]

What do you want for the last “premium” mii costume ?? (Costume + song). So far, its been indie characters (sans, cuphead and shantae) so I don’t think they will move from there. IMO, we need a hollow knight Mii Costume, its on of the best indie games of past decade.

ps: a rhythm game fighter mechanic should be about pressing the attacks buttons in certain rhythms or patrons.

I'd love to see Freddy Fazbear as the next Premiium. On the other hand, I think there should be a Premiium for the Swordfighter.

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

I'd love to see Freddy Fazbear as the next Premiium. On the other hand, I think there should be a Premiium for the Swordfighter.

pretty sure it isn't happening though, the creator said earlier this year he has no plans for game collaborations this year. He name dropped Fortnite and Fall Guys but I'd say Smash would apply too

 

[osby]

A rhythm-based character would have visual cues like 's side B or 's down B.

I know Hero's Command Selection is hard on people with reading difficulties but I don't see Smash downright making a character unplayable for any player with hearing issues.

 

[Cosmic77]

What if CP11 taking a long ass time is because they ran into a Sonic in brawl situation. Aka, last minute change of heart with a "FIIIIINE- get it in smash" explaining the sudden bump from 5 to 6, and the weird release window of said character?

Maybe, but I'd assume they wouldn't do anything until they were absolutely sure they'd be able to go through with it. In other words, they should've had everything settled and agreed upon by the time the second pass and "six instead of five" thing was finalized. At that point, they could've added the character at really any point in the pass.

We'll see though. Personally, I expect the last character to take long because of either the character's game being really new or Nintendo holding off on the character for a seemingly random reason.

 

[Goombaic]

• Also remember that items that "change the music" don't actually change the music. They're sound effects.

You can save the accessibility issue with a rhythm indicator though.

That's worse, you'd lose track of the tempo while the hammer or Squid Sisters are playing. Pray that those don't spawn as the music changes tempo.

 

[Technomage]

Nintendo holding off on the character for a seemingly random reason.

If that's the case, I hope Nintendo's at least working on other Smash content in the mean time (such as new stages, spirits, or costumes). I don't want them to be doing nothing at all just to give a character unnecessary delays.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Maybe, but I'd assume they wouldn't do anything until they were absolutely sure they'd be able to go through with it. In other words, they should've had everything settled and agreed upon by the time the second pass and "six instead of five" thing was finalized. At that point, they could've added the character at really any point in the pass.

We'll see though. Personally, I expect the last character to take long because of either the character's game being really new or Nintendo holding off on the character for a seemingly random reason.

They can at most try out gameplay ideas/proof of concept, but true development won't start till the licensing went through, yeah.

That said, gameplay development has delayed characters a lot. That could be literally all there is to it for CP11.

 

[Slime Master]

I wonder how accurate the "a little while" translation actually is. September could easily fit that description, but it seems weird for Sakurai to say that explicitly unless he meant it would be longer than we expect. Maybe he said it because he thought a lot of people were expecting a double reveal at E3? Or another reveal at the presentation? I'd assume a long wait for now but if anyone who knows some Japanese has some insight on exactly what he said I'd be interested in hearing it.

 

[Inferno7]

What if CP11 taking a long ass time is because they ran into a Sonic in brawl situation. Aka, last minute change of heart with a "FIIIIINE- get it in smash" explaining the sudden bump from 5 to 6, and the weird release window of said character?

Yeah I've been wondering this too, especially if the company in question has been stingy in the past. Square comes to mind.

On Reddit's Daily Discussion Thread for Smash, some users were discussing how the last characters in Ultimate for both base game and FP1 were a fighting game character and then a character from an overrepresented franchise. The other franchise that's overrepresented aside from Pokemon and Fire Emblem is Mario, and going on your fanservice pick, this means Waluigi would be the last fighter.

Though I think Mario has the perfect amount of representation considering it's Nintendo's biggest IP.

As someone who supported Waluigi in Brawl I wouldn't like this outcome, but it's far from the worst.
I still don't believe in patterns, and Waluigi has the spirit board issue, it will look like a total mess regardless of reused assets.

That's why I've been thinking that Sora could potentially be Fighter 11. Disney is a huge company that can get away with delaying a character's arrival and Nintendo seem to have a lot of respect for them with comments about wanting Mario to be like Mickey Mouse.

Sora of all people would make lots of sense regarding this theory, because of not only the licensing issues, but the fact that they have to deal with 2 companies at once that are known to be stingy. I think it's a possibility that they couldn't get Sora at first because Square + Disney thought it wouldn't be profitable, but changed their minds once they saw how successful the DLC has been. Not to mention Sakurai/Nintendo are well aware of what the fans want as shown with the last mii wave, and it seems like we haven't had a 100% fanservice pick yet (Steve is kind of debatable though). And last but not least, Sora as a character doesn't share the issue of being a western-centric pick like Crash and Master Chief, having an overall worldwide appeal.

All of this is pure speculation though, so I wouldn't get my hopes up.

 

[Geno Boost]

What do you want for the last “premium” mii costume ?? (Costume + song). So far, its been indie characters (sans, cuphead and shantae) so I don’t think they will move from there. IMO, we need a hollow knight Mii Costume, its on of the best indie games of past decade.

ps: a rhythm game fighter mechanic should be about pressing the attacks buttons in certain rhythms or patrons.

Sukapon or Black mage or Alex Kidd is what I would like to have
However I am expecting Shovel knight or Freddy

 

[Ivander]

What do you want for the last “premium” mii costume ?? (Costume + song). So far, its been indie characters (sans, cuphead and shantae) so I don’t think they will move from there. IMO, we need a hollow knight Mii Costume, its on of the best indie games of past decade.

Really hoping for Shovel Knight.

 

[Paraster]

What do you want for the last “premium” mii costume ?? (Costume + song). So far, its been indie characters (sans, cuphead and shantae) so I don’t think they will move from there. IMO, we need a hollow knight Mii Costume, its on of the best indie games of past decade.

ps: a rhythm game fighter mechanic should be about pressing the attacks buttons in certain rhythms or patrons.

While I'd be over the moon for him, I'd still be ecstatic for a Gunner based on Quote with the Cave Story theme, Mischievous Robot, Last Battle, or Running Hell.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Something to keep in mind is that the last time Sakurai implied that the next character trailer would be quite a while later, we almost immediately got Isabelle, and then Ken & Incineroar about two months later.

Unless I'm mistaken and he said that after Isabelle, but even then there wasn't a particularly long wait between reveals.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

What do you want for the last “premium” mii costume ?? (Costume + song). So far, its been indie characters (sans, cuphead and shantae) so I don’t think they will move from there. IMO, we need a hollow knight Mii Costume, its on of the best indie games of past decade.

ps: a rhythm game fighter mechanic should be about pressing the attacks buttons in certain rhythms or patrons.

Brian as a Swordfighter. Sure, he's a magical user, but a lot of the elemental attacks fit super well from there. Whirlwinds, for instance. That, and he does use tons of crazy Staff attacks, so it still works out well enough. It's more for the music, since Quest's OST is honestly really damn good. Not in midi format for people with sensitive ears, but it's got lots of great Celtic music as is. What song? I dunno. There's too many good ones. The most iconic is probably the Batlte Theme, since you hear it 90's of the game.

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

As far as enhanced mii costumes go, just keep the indie train going, heck why stop at 1? I'm rooting for Shovel Knight, Hollow Knight AND Monika. I'd say Freddy too but he's already pretty much deconfirmed

 

[subterrestrial]

a shovel knight Premiium would make me actually play swordfighter

 

[StarBot]

Hey, whatever happened to amiibo theory btw

 

[RileyXY1]

Hey, whatever happened to amiibo theory btw

It died because we're not getting the Min Min amiibo until 2022.

 

[DarthEnderX]

What do you want for the last “premium” mii costume ?? (Costume + song). So far, its been indie characters (sans, cuphead and shantae) so I don’t think they will move from there.

Either Shovel Knight or Reimu.

I'd love to see Freddy Fazbear as the next Premiium.

Seems like a waste of the song slot.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Hey, whatever happened to amiibo theory btw

It's pretty much been retired after all the fighter pass 1 amiibo were shown and Min Min's was shown to be released in 2022.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

It died because we're not getting the Min Min amiibo until 2022.

Did it apply to only Smash amiibo, or amiibo in general? That's the only thing I don't remember.

...Then again, I might be misremembering how it went. XD

 

[Perkilator]

Just FYI: "a while before that announcement" can still be about 2-3 months. I wouldn't count out a Fall Direct reveal just yet.

 

[SharkLord]

Yeah, I'm of the belief that we're looking too deeply into this. "A little while longer" can range from a month to half a year and everything in between, Smash has always had some sort of presence at a mainline Nintendo Direct, and Nintendo almost always has a September Direct. Chances are we're ending it there.

 

[SpectreJordan]

What if CP11 taking a long ass time is because they ran into a Sonic in brawl situation. Aka, last minute change of heart with a "FIIIIINE- get it in smash" explaining the sudden bump from 5 to 6, and the weird release window of said character?

Yeah, I’ve had this thought for a little bit. I’d say that would fit Sora, Crash & Master Chief the best.

It’d sort of fit Undertale too but more because “Oh crap, that Sans costume is making bank! A character would make even more, let’s get that in real quick!”.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Okay, but what character would be so requested that they’d make an exception in their schedule instead of dismissing it like other “shoo-in” requests? Unless that wouldnt be the reason, but the “Sonic in Brawl” situation kind of implied it would be demand-based.

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

Yeah, I’ve had this thought for a little bit. I’d say that would fit Sora, Crash & Master Chief the best.

It’d sort of fit Undertale too but more because “Oh crap, that Sans costume is making bank! A character would make even more, let’s get that in real quick!”.

this exactly, well either that or they just felt like doing 6 characters because

WeirdChillFever based on the timing, an Undertale rep would make the most sense. I mean people reacted to the Sans costume like it was a new character, I'd argue only Joker and Banjo got a bigger reaction than him (out of FP1). I'd say Cuphead but they announced there would be six in the same presentation that costume was revealed

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Okay, but what character would be so requested that they’d make an exception in their schedule instead of dismissing it like other “shoo-in” requests? Unless that wouldnt be the reason, but the “Sonic in Brawl” situation kind of implied it would be demand-based.

Do keep in mind Sonic was also planned to be in the original roster. He wasn't a last minute addition to the list, just to the programming, since they couldn't get him early enough. That's what disrupted the development plans.

All 39 playable characters were planned from the start according to Sakurai. That also means the Forbidden 7(whatever Pra_Mai is, Dixie Kong, Toon Zelda, Toon Sheik, Mewtwo, Dr. Mario, and Roy) were going to be in. So a 46 roster(depending on what Pra_Mai is. If it was some weird spelling of Plusule & Minun, which I don't believe it is, it probably was like Ice Climbers, but had no work done, so only one small file names at best. Then again, I think IC's have one file name anyway, so. At least among these particular set of character name files. Only transformations like Charizard has their own file name, not straight-out partner characters).

 

[Staarih]

I don't think there's necessarily any weird shenanigans for the last character because of timing - they could very well be revealed in September, it would still be "a while" and follow the pattern we've seen thus far. If it does stretch to December, then I think there may be a reason for the delay.

I can, however, see that the last character may be one with negotiations having occurred very last minute or decided later than normal for FP2 (compared to the other fighters); thus the sixth slot.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Do keep in mind Sonic was also planned to be in the original roster. He wasn't a last minute addition to the list, just to the programming, since they couldn't get him early enough. That's what disrupted the development plans.

All 39 playable characters were planned from the start according to Sakurai. That also means the Forbidden 7(whatever Pra_Mai is, Dixie Kong, Toon Zelda, Toon Sheik, Mewtwo, Dr. Mario, and Roy) were going to be in. So a 46 roster(depending on what Pra_Mai is. If it was some weird spelling of Plusule & Minun, which I don't believe it is, it probably was like Ice Climbers, but had no work done, so only one small file names at best. Then again, I think IC's have one file name anyway, so. At least among these particular set of character name files. Only transformations like Charizard has their own file name, not straight-out partner characters).

Huh, I didn’t know that! A late rights finalization might point towards a big third party character, but I’m leaning towards a character that just didn’t have as much work done on them concept-wise, so they needed some time to tinker out the details regardless of complexity. Still, must’ve been tricky with Steve, Aegis and Kazuya as well and possibly happened with Min Min. Wondering when those concepts were finalized, development-wise

 

[Slime Master]

They wouldn't have announced that there would be 6 fighters unless they had already secured rights to all those characters; if negotiations fell through and they said "oops, it's actually 5 characters" they'd be in pretty hot water. So the latest this character was finalized is, like, right before FP2 was announced. I'd be surprised if that was short enough to cause delays, but I don't claim to know how long this stuff takes.

 

[Technomage]

Either Shovel Knight or Reimu.

Seems like a waste of the song slot.

Are you sure about that? Would songs like this change your mind?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

They wouldn't have announced that there would be 6 fighters unless they had already secured rights to all those characters; if negotiations fell through and they said "oops, it's actually 5 characters" they'd be in pretty hot water. So the latest this character was finalized is, like, right before FP2 was announced. I'd be surprised if that was short enough to cause delays, but I don't claim to know how long this stuff takes.

While I agree with your point, it's not like they can't easily find another character. They have multiple 1st party options to promote(Pokemon alone).

I don't think they would announce 6 are coming unless they're locked on, though. More of a business practice to be accurate and know what's going on, instead of a case where they need to worry about falling back on someone(it's no worry).