Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Þe 1 → Way]

Just for fun, I decided to examine the game franchises Wikipedia lists as the highest grossing and see what we can rule out based on what we know. I'll be sticking solely to franchises not represented with a playable character in Smash so no Mario, Pokemon, Minecraft, etc, and of course I'll also be skipping over franchises based on movies/books (should I make an exception to the Witcher? eh why not) as well as sports games and series exclusive to other consoles. I'll also be eliminating options that don't have obvious main characters (such as Call of Duty where you typically play as a nameless soldier)

First off, the list:
Tetris - 495m
Assassin's Creed - 155m
Resident Evil - 110m
Tom Clancy's - 82m (it lists other types of Tom Clancy games but I decided to exclude them)
Tomb Raider - 82m
Worms - 75m
Monster Hunter - 72m
Borderlands - 70m
Red Dead - 60m
The Elder Scrolls - 58.5m
Mortal Kombat - 54m
Crash Bandicoot - 50m
Far Cry - 50m
Diablo - 50m
The Witcher - 50m
Fallout - 38m
BioShock - 37m
Brain Age - 33.89m
Kingdom Hearts - 32m
Souls - 28.7m
Nintendogs - 27.95m
Half-Life - 27.6m
Rayman - 26m
Tales - 23.86m
Power Pros - 23.5m
Mystery Dungeon - 23.18m
Devil May Cry - 23m
Prince of Persia - 20m
Frogger - 20m
J. B. Harold - 20m
Lemmings - 20m
Simple - 20m
Spyro - 20m
Mass Effect - 20m
Raving Rabbids - 20m
Watch Dogs - 20m

From here, I'll eliminate series that are already represented in Smash in some form (not to say they won't get a fighter of course, just to simplify things)
Tom Clancy's - 82m
Tomb Raider - 82m
Worms - 75m
Borderlands - 70m
Red Dead - 60m
Mortal Kombat - 54m
Crash Bandicoot - 50m
Far Cry - 50m
Diablo - 50m
The Witcher - 50m
BioShock - 37m
Kingdom Hearts - 32m
Souls - 28.7m
Half-Life - 27.6m
Power Pros - 23.5m
Mystery Dungeon - 23.18m
Prince of Persia - 20m
Frogger - 20m
J. B. Harold - 20m
Lemmings - 20m
Simple - 20m
Spyro - 20m
Mass Effect - 20m
Watch Dogs - 20m

next we'll rule out franchises that simply are incredibly unlikely to get a character. I know those aren't necessarily failsafe guidelines but do people genuinely think we could get a character from say Mass Effect or Watch Dogs? (Tomb Raider was left due to how successful of a franchise it is making it a sleeper pick, Worms has received several exclusive games through Nintendo, Crash and Sora are heavily requested currently, Namco is pretty close with Nintendo so a Souls rep if Namco got another character would make sense and Nintendo has done special tie ins with Skylanders)
Tomb Raider - 82m
Worms - 75m
Crash Bandicoot - 50m
Kingdom Hearts - 32m
Souls - 28.7m
Spyro - 20m

Nothing to take seriously at all, just thought it'd be fun to narrow down the highest grossing franchises and see who's up there

Man, Worms has sold way more than I ever thought. I always thought it was a semi obscure indie that had a cult following. Its outsold ████ Monster Hunter.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'm working on my own "prospective Smash game" project, and am trimming down the cast from Ultimate considerably, but I'm unsure of the exact count. I was initially thinking that I'd go down to 50 veterans and add 15 newcomers for a clean 65. However, I'm stuck on the last 3 newcomers to cut (I've already made some pretty notable cuts just to get here, with Ice Climbers and Olimar probably being the biggest), and am wondering if I should increase the cap. Does 55 or 60 veterans (70 or 75 total fighters) sound like too much for a post-Ultimate game that does not replicate "Everyone Is Here"?

I think it's fine. I admire your self restraint, because if it were me making that kind of roster I think I'd go a lot higher until I felt that it's unrealistic.

Yeah, pretty sure every so far character thats had the chips falling into place for them has been put out of the running. RE, Dante, A Tales rep, Chun Li (though she isn’t quite out yet), etc.

Who would that be? I can’t think of any characters who originated in VB game being considered worthwhile.

Unless of course this is a joke my sleep deprived mind has ran straight past.

Harry from Teleroboxer? That's probably the only franchise that debuted on the VB.

next we'll rule out franchises that simply are incredibly unlikely to get a character. I know those aren't necessarily failsafe guidelines but do people genuinely think we could get a character from say Mass Effect or Watch Dogs?

Yeah, totally. Mass Effect is one of the most emblematic Western RPG franchises and the easy frontrunner for an EA rep. Checking the other franchises that you've eliminated, there's tons of them that have games on Nintendo systems and/or are at the front of the pack when it comes to their genre or their owner.

Honestly the only ones that anyone can confidently say aren't worth considering are Lemmings (Sony owns it), Simple (because it's not really a series), The Witcher (4th party) and the ones from companies that already got fighters (and you left in two from those anyway). No offense but you took a list of potential sleeper picks and pruned it down to the most discussed franchises in it (and Worms).

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

Man, Worms has sold way more than I ever thought. I always thought it was a semi obscure indie that had a cult following. Its outsold ████ Monster Hunter.

I know right? I was surprised too, but hey if it's that successful and still getting games, with the moveset potential it'd have, I don't see why it should be ruled out

I think it's fine. I admire your self restraint, because if it were me making that kind of roster I think I'd go a lot higher until I felt that it's unrealistic.

Harry from Teleroboxer? That's probably the only franchise that debuted on the VB.

Yeah, totally. Mass Effect is one of the most emblematic Western RPG franchises and the easy frontrunner for an EA rep. Checking the other franchises that you've eliminated, there's tons of them that have games on Nintendo systems and/or are at the front of the pack when it comes to their genre or their owner.

Honestly the only ones that anyone can confidently say aren't worth considering are Lemmings (Sony owns it), Simple (because it's not really a series), The Witcher (4th party) and the ones from companies that already got fighters (and you left in two from those anyway). No offense but you took a list of potential sleeper picks and pruned it down to the most discussed franchises in it (and Worms).

well I've tried to keep in mind the companies the characters are from as well. You don't see Nintendo and EA working together on games like you do Ubisoft, Namco, Atlus, etc, so I sort of ruled out franchises that come from companies Nintendo moreso just ports to their consoles rather than works exclusively with (such as EA and 2K)
I get what you mean and if we got an EA character it'd probably be from Mass Effect but I still don't see it as likely at all

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

please delete this

 

[Paraster]

As far as what's feasible, we know that 69 characters (not counting Echo Fighters) at launch is pretty taxing, and required heavy asset reuse alongside a fairly lackluster single player mode, with the Home Run Contest and Stage Builder coming as DLC. Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3Ds/Wii U launched with 49 characters (not counting Lucina and Dark Pit), with the large development sync being the separate 3Ds and Wii U versions rather than the characters themselves. Super Smash Bros. Brawl had 39 with the Adventure Mode taking up a huge chunk of developmental resources.

I think it's safe to assume that without a large resource hog feature, the most reasonable roster size to expect is somewhere in the 50's. The low 60's might be possible as well, but that's approaching Super Smash Bros. Ultimate's numbers, and I hesitate to say that they could go that high without sacrificing something.

With a large resource hog feature...my guess would be somewhere around the previous game's number; high 40's to low 50's.

You raise some good points about feasibility that I hadn't paid enough mind to previously.

My initial target total of 65 fighters was reached by attempting to determine how many fighters a sequel to 4 would have without Everyone Is Here. I looked at 4's base roster of 51, then looked at how much base rosters increased over the course of the series.

Melee had 13 more than 64.
Brawl had 13 more than Melee.
4 base had 12 more than Brawl.

My game's 65 total is 14 more than Smash 4--more than the other gaps, but by very little, and I do have an entire extra game's worth of newcomers to work with. I assumed "keeping pace" would work fine, but your post helped me realize the potential for an upper limit before roster size starts to incur too many resources.

I'd like to keep at/around the 15 newcomers if possible (it's actually less newcomers than Brawl and 4 base game), but this would result in some very difficult cuts at this point.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Whether if it's a song or an album, what non-video game songs would you want in Smash?

Give me this for Little Mac's stage:

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

A pinch of this for Simon:

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

Ooh, and this for any Earthbound stage:

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

Man the posts on GameFaqs about how Nahobino is impossible because Sakurai wouldn’t have a figure of him are giving me a headache

 

[ZelDan]

Man the posts on GameFaqs about how Nahobino is impossible because Sakurai wouldn’t have a figure of him are giving me a headache

I literally only saw one guy saying that I think, and the entire thread seemingly show him down.

I also don't see the reason we need to drag stuff from other websites here, unless its leaks or some sort of gaming news.

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

I literally only saw one guy saying that I think, and the entire thread seemingly show him down.

I also don't see the reason we need to drag stuff from other websites here, unless its leaks or some sort of gaming news.

There’s been several topics on it at this point and it’s usually their go to reason for why it can’t happen. Anyways my main point was if that truly matters or rules the character out if true

 

[StrangeKitten]

There’s been several topics on it at this point and it’s usually their go to reason for why it can’t happen. Anyways my main point was if that truly matters or rules the character out if true

I don't think it rules them out. It's even possible that Atlus could give Sakurai an early figure/3D model of the character. And worth keeping in mind that Sakurai gave us Greninja and Corrin very close to when their games released.

 

[PSIGuy]

If Nintendo really wanted a character from an unreleased game and the owner was willing to cooperate every step of the way, I'd say it's possible. But it would still be especially difficult and risky - probably the hardest character Sakurai's ever tried to implement. Honestly, it'd be like Sakurai and the owner company co-creating a character since anything one side does has to be mirrored by the other.

I don't think Nahobino's that likely but I do enjoy seeing people take an SMT rep seriously for once.

 

[StrangeKitten]

It's also possible that SMT V won't be unreleased by the time CP 11 is revealed. It comes out November 12th, and if the final fighter gets saved for The Game Awards, that would give SMT V roughly a month to have been out. Use a similar release schedule to what we got with Sephiroth, and they'd still make the December 2021 deadline. I hope it doesn't happen this way, because that means we'll be sitting here not knowing the final character for a long time, but it's certainly possible.

 

[7NATOR]

Personally I would say that if we don't know who CP11 is by September, than it's probably confirmed to be Nahobino if the reveal is taking that long

And honestly Smash Speculation is probably gonna suck for that time period as well

 

[Arcanir]

I don't think it rules them out. It's even possible that Atlus could give Sakurai an early figure/3D model of the character. And worth keeping in mind that Sakurai gave us Greninja and Corrin very close to when their games released.

Greninja was revealed seven months after XY and Smash 4 for the 3DS released nearly a full year later, while Corrin released over eight months after Fates did in Japan. Neither case were close to their game's release, and SMTV and Nahobino's situation would be wholly unique compared to any other fighter.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Greninja was revealed seven months after XY and Smash 4 for the 3DS released nearly a full year later, while Corrin released over eight months after Fates did in Japan. Neither case were close to their game's release, and SMTV and Nahobino's situation would be wholly unique compared to any other fighter.

At the same time, the main issue is when it's a base game character with some form of personality, DLC fighters take like 6 months to make and the last 6 months of game development is spent polishing the game, which means the timing can add up as this isn't a 3 year dev project like the base game

 

[perfectchaos83]

It's also possible that SMT V won't be unreleased by the time CP 11 is revealed. It comes out November 12th, and if the final fighter gets saved for The Game Awards, that would give SMT V roughly a month to have been out. Use a similar release schedule to what we got with Sephiroth, and they'd still make the December 2021 deadline. I hope it doesn't happen this way, because that means we'll be sitting here not knowing the final character for a long time, but it's certainly possible.

We've been pretty consistent on 3/4 months between characters since Min min. Why would we suddenly wait 6 ****ing months?

 

[Knight Dude]

Haven't gotten the DLC yet. But Kaz is fun to fight against. Knowing when to punish the lasers, and trying to force him at bay with Mega Man is pretty cool. I for sure get a lot of good use out of Leaf Shield and Slide Kick.

He reminds me more of Bowser than the other FG guys, being fairly quick on the ground and hitting hard, but having clear punish windows. Now if only I was better about drifting out of the 10 string.

 

[Cosmic77]

Maybe the wait will be completely ordinary and won't stray far from the three months we're used to. That being said, I do think it’s weird how Sakurai felt the need to note that the next character was a while away. Him mentioning that the character would still be out by the end of the year seemed odd too. Not sure why he'd say either of these things if the character is still coming out in September or October.

I'm thinking more along the lines of BotW2 than SMT V, but regardless, I don't think either should be completely ruled out. If the DLC was chosen back in 2019, then they may have expected some of these titles to have launched sooner. COVID-19 probably wasn't taken into account when they chose the characters in the second pass.

 

[Shroob]

I think my biggest issue with specifically a BotW2 rep is just, what exactly do you do?


They don't seem keen to tell us more than they're comfortable with IRT BotW2, and I just don't see Smash getting a character to promote BotW2, when frankly, we barely know anything about it still.


Then there's the issue of just.... who? Link's already BotW Link and I severely doubt we'll get Link, but BotW2. Zelda's seemingly not happening, as mentioned by Sakurai in the past, and Ganoncorpse is still this huge enigma that they probably want to keep in secret as to what he's like. Like, hell, we don't even know if the 4 Champions will even return for BotW2, and them being put in Smash as a "BotW2" rep would kinda be a huge spoiler? When they're keeping soo much info on the game under wraps? If anything, say, a Champion, would be more akin to a BotW1/AoC rep than anything at this point.



Even with Covid delays, the fact we barely got a minute of footage at E3 tells me that BotW2 will not be an early 2022 release, meaning that sure, COVID probably hurt its dev time a lot, but I kinda feel like it may have always been a 2022 release at this point. Hell, they're "Aiming" for 2022, which means, worst-case scenario, it may not even come out next year.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

My main issue with the SMTV protagonist is that they would be a third party promotional character for a game that isn't out yet.

Third parties are usually not chosen for promotional reasons, and if they are, its after their game is released.

 

[Idon]

It'll be the legendary Jack Frost, finally uniting both Scrimblo Bimblo and McJRPG fans, a gran finale to Smash Ultimate.

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

My main issue with the SMTV protagonist is that they would be a third party promotional character for a game that isn't out yet.

Third parties are usually not chosen for promotional reasons, and if they are, its after their game is released.

it's not like an SMT rep is necessarily just a promotional pick. It would really only be one if the character just so happened to be a character from the upcoming game

 

[Shroob]

I do find it funny that SMTV got more screen time at E3 than BotW2, the game that everyone was banking on, myself included, being Nintendo's big 1-2 punch to win E3..... when arguably, I'd say Dread actually did that.


Like, don't get me wrong, BotW2 news is huge, and by a large margin was Nintendo's 'big' reveal, but it was mainly "Here's a minute of cutscenes/gameplay with zero context, and oh yeah, it maaaaaaay come out next year? We hope?"

 

[Swamp Sensei]

it's not like an SMT rep is necessarily just a promotional pick. It would really only be one if the character just so happened to be a character from the upcoming game

Yeah, but I feel like if that's the case and they want a SMT character... why not choose one that's guaranteed to be a hit?

 

[Stratos]

From 2017 they were told us about Metroid Prime 4, but eventually Metroid Dread will be released. I do not have a problem with Metroid Dread, but I would like to see if Dark Samus will still be alive and I say that because in Metroid Prime 2: Echoes it seemed to dissolve, but we saw she again in Metroid Prime 3: Corruption.

 

[Lyncario]

It'll be the legendary Jack Frost, finally uniting both Scrimblo Bimblo and McJRPG fans, a gran finale to Smash Ultimate.

Jack Frost joins the Smash roster without your consent.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

From 2017 they were told us about Metroid Prime 4, but eventually Metroid Dread will be released. I do not have a problem with Metroid Dread, but I would like to see if Dark Samus will still be alive and I say that because in Metroid Prime 2: Echoes it seemed to dissolve, but we saw she again in Metroid Prime 3: Corruption.

Dark Samus came back in MP3 because it is alive as long as there's Phazon.

Phaaze, the source of Phazon is destroyed and with it, all Phazon is eradicated.

Dark Samus cannot be brought back unless Phazon is somehow brought back, but that would be creating plot holes.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I think my biggest issue with specifically a BotW2 rep is just, what exactly do you do?


They don't seem keen to tell us more than they're comfortable with IRT BotW2, and I just don't see Smash getting a character to promote BotW2, when frankly, we barely know anything about it still.


Then there's the issue of just.... who? Link's already BotW Link and I severely doubt we'll get Link, but BotW2. Zelda's seemingly not happening, as mentioned by Sakurai in the past, and Ganoncorpse is still this huge enigma that they probably want to keep in secret as to what he's like. Like, hell, we don't even know if the 4 Champions will even return for BotW2, and them being put in Smash as a "BotW2" rep would kinda be a huge spoiler? When they're keeping soo much info on the game under wraps? If anything, say, a Champion, would be more akin to a BotW1/AoC rep than anything at this point.



Even with Covid delays, the fact we barely got a minute of footage at E3 tells me that BotW2 will not be an early 2022 release, meaning that sure, COVID probably hurt its dev time a lot, but I kinda feel like it may have always been a 2022 release at this point. Hell, they're "Aiming" for 2022, which means, worst-case scenario, it may not even come out next year.

The fact we don't even have a either a release window or a title for BotW2 is what kills it hard imo, like, there's 1 spot left and is it really dedicated to a character from a game that comes out some time next year, most likely on the later side which apparantly isn't even willing to tell us it's name means it's waaaay too early. Even if Sakurai decided to say **** it, we'd get what, Link 4: Flamethrower Boogaloo? At least with SMTV you can make the argument that the release window lines up with the estimated deadline

 

[Quick Gaming (QG)]

Dark Samus came back in MP3 because it is alive as long as there's Phazon.

Phaaze, the source of Phazon is destroyed and with it, all Phazon is eradicated.

Dark Samus cannot be brought back unless Phazon is somehow brought back, but that would be creating plot holes.

I know next to nothing about Metroid but perhaps a small amount of phazon was being stored somewhere and it broke loose and corrupted the EMMI's?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I know next to nothing about Metroid but perhaps a small amount of phazon was being stored somewhere and it broke loose and corrupted the EMMI's?

Literally impossible.

Phaaze being destroyed, destroyed every bit of Phazon, including the Phazon in living creatures like Samus and Ridley.

Moreover, unless the EMMIs have organic parts, Phazon wouldn't do anything to them. It's a mutagen that slowly corrupts living tissue, or kills the host if they can't physically take the physical strain.

 

[Mamboo07]

I'm expecting the final fighter to be a highly requested fighter like Crash Bandicoot, Doomguy, Master Chief or either it doesn't happen due to us Smash fans getting things wrong a lot.

 

[Shroob]

It's most likely the X-Parasite irt to EMMIs. Isn't the whole plot "Samus heard rumors of the X-Parasite being found on the planet"?


That, and conveniently, the EMMIs heads turn into X-shapes when they unfold completely, which seems to be a bit of symbolism.

 

[Dinoman96]

FWIW Kensuke Tanabe's already stated that Dark Samus and the phazon are over and done with.

Next proper Metroid Prime "would likely now be on NX"

Nintendo's next home console Metroid Prime game will now likely not release until the company has launched its next-gen…

www.eurogamer.net

 

[Twilord]

Dark Samus came back in MP3 because it is alive as long as there's Phazon.

Phaaze, the source of Phazon is destroyed and with it, all Phazon is eradicated.

Dark Samus cannot be brought back unless Phazon is somehow brought back, but that would be creating plot holes.

Who wants to put money on the Galactic Federation doing experiments to create "totally safe fakezon" and accidentally creating a new Dark Samus who it turns out is a reincarnation of the original because Phaaze left a psychic imprint on reality that Fakezon is reacting with?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I know next to nothing about Metroid but perhaps a small amount of phazon was being stored somewhere and it broke loose and corrupted the EMMI's?

I guess you can try and make a plotline with artifically created Phazon but as the stuff is parasitic in a way I don't think it'd work, especially as Metroid already has countless manmade bioweapons and stuff like, y'know, the Metroids

It's most likely the X-Parasite irt to EMMIs. Isn't the whole plot "Samus heard rumors of the X-Parasite being found on the planet"?


That, and conveniently, the EMMIs heads turn into X-shapes when they unfold completely, which seems to be a bit of symbolism.

Now that you mention it, the reason Samus is being hunted down to begin with as she went rogue after finding out the GF wanted to weaponize the X parasite, though due to their nature I find it hard to believe the GF could actually do this as they lost their Metroid breeding program due to again, Samus

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Who wants to put money on the Galactic Federation doing experiments to create "totally safe fakezon" and accidentally creating a new Dark Samus who it turns out is a reincarnation of the original because Phaaze left a psychic imprint on reality that Fakezon is reacting with?

That's like... Other M tier writing...

So I guess its possible.

 

[Twilord]

That's like... Other M tier writing...

So I guess its possible.

I mean I could see them having a subtle background detail in the background of Dread where it suggests the Galactic Federation are researching making arteficial phazon. From what we know of them it would be weird if they weren't.

 

[rychu_supadude]

Who would that be? I can’t think of any characters who originated in VB game being considered worthwhile.

Unless of course this is a joke my sleep deprived mind has ran straight past.

The only Virtual Boy character that's even halfway conceivable is Harry from Teleroboxer, who is also the only VB character to have a spirit. Galactic Pinball doesn't have any characters, Mario's Tennis and Mario Clash don't have any newcomers, nobody remembers any of the VB Wario Land enemies, and Nintendo probably doesn't own any rights to Nester's Funky Bowling anymore.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

From what we know of them it would be weird if they weren't.

I know...

But I don't want this to be the default for the federation.

They've already tried and failed to weaponize/contain Metroids and X.

Phazon would be even more horrendous.

An X parasite infected by Phazon would be horrific.

 

[Gengar84]

Maybe the wait will be completely ordinary and won't stray far from the three months we're used to. That being said, I do think it’s weird how Sakurai felt the need to note that the next character was a while away. Him mentioning that the character would still be out by the end of the year seemed odd too. Not sure why he'd say either of these things if the character is still coming out in September or October.

I'm thinking more along the lines of BotW2 than SMT V, but regardless, I don't think either should be completely ruled out. If the DLC was chosen back in 2019, then they may have expected some of these titles to have launched sooner. COVID-19 probably wasn't taken into account when they chose the characters in the second pass.

Do you guys think there is a chance that Sakurai has something else planned like a new mode or upgrade to an existing mode along with CP11? I know he said Home Run Contest was it but that may have just been for FP1. That might explain why it would take longer than usual.