There are some interesting things I have to say about the Presentation. This may be a long post, and I might make shorter, more compressed version later, but there is TL:DR in the bottom
-As hinted through the Heaven quote, Tekken being a franchise that Nintendo was requesting for is Surprising and Not Surprising at all, considering that while it is a big franchise, it doesn't have much history on Nintendo. However past character additions kind of make the lack of Nintendo history point not as strong
I think it's also interesting that the characters this was said for were Steve and Kazuya, who both are characters that Sakurai seemed unsure of how to represent at First, and seem to be the most Mechanically different characters added to Smash Ultimate in it's entirity
I'm starting to think that quote about Sakurai thinking about "1 or 2 extra Fighters" might apply to Steve and Kazuya, and not Steve and Sephiroth like I and others originally thought. Steve and Kazuya share more Characteristics with each other than Steve and Sephiroth do
-Both are the Original 3rd Party franchises represented in FP2
-Both are the Most Mechanical different characters added to Smash Ultimate
-Both were characters that were confirmed to have been requested by Nintendo, sharing this with Hero and Byleth in FP1
-The Idea of Both characters were both discussed long before FP2 was a thing (Steve for 5 years, Tekken in Smash since Smash 4)
I think the fact that Nintendo was specifically mentioned in both Steve and Kazuya's reason for inclusion points to these 2 being the extra fighters and not any other Combination. This doesn't mean that Min Min, Sephiroth, and Pyra/Mythra are characters Nintendo doesn't care for, as they wouldn't be in FP2 if that was the case. I think though it seems that getting Minecraft and Tekken into Smash was the main priority when it came to DLC after FP1, and had there only been 2 characters, I think it would have been Steve and Kazuya
What also aids in this thinking is that Minecraft and Tekken have the largest appeal outside of what's already in Smash, as they had no presence in Smash before. FF7 was already represented by Cloud, Xenoblade as a Franchise was already represented, even if Xenoblade Chronicles 2 introduced new fans, and ARMS is a new I.P that did do a good 2 Million Copies, but I don't think it branches outside of the Nintendo crowd as much
Comparing FP1 to FP2, in terms of the Parallel theory, the 3rd party characters in FP2 overall have a bigger appeal than the ones in FP1, and I think if Steve and Kazuya weren't so mechanically complex, I Imagine they might have been prioritized for FP1 over Banjo and Steve respectfully. The fact that Nintendo said they were surprised at the reaction to Banjo shows that while they did find Banjo worthy enough to be in FP1, they probably weren't as confident in him as they were with Steve
I think a FP1 line up of Joker, Hero, Steve, Kazuya, and Byleth would have been Nintendo's preferred lineup, as 4 out of 5 of these characters has Nintendo mentioned as a major factor in their inclusion. I'll get into Joker later on
In terms of what this might mean for CP11, if the number of initial potential extra fighters is concrete, than this might point to CP11 not being in the style of Steve and Kazuya, but more akin to Min Min and Pyra/Mythra, or Sephiroth, as in they might be a character that is familiar to the Audience already represented in Smash.
-The fact that Sakurai directly stated that the Mii Costumed characters were popular requests is interesting. He doesn't do that too often, as he only did that with Sans in Ultimate, and Geno in Smash 4.
I would say that perhaps you could stretch this to say that perhaps this might be implying the last character might be one that is popular with the fanbase, as it might not be good for the Image of the game to costume these popular characters, and that add in someone that would probably not sit well with the fanbase. However in Sans case, the character we got after Sans was revealed was Byleth (Terry was already revealed before Sans showed up, and even counting him he was kind of more niche in requests)
I'm not surprised by Dante being mii costumed. I even think it makes so much sense he came today because both him and Kazuya are acquainted with the Devil, and I've been thinking he'd be mii costumed
Dragonborn and Shantae I'm very surprised about though, but it's interesting and such
-Speaking of Shantae, her appearance in this pack kind of hurts the idea of an Indie character being CP11. It doesn't deconfirm the idea, that's not what I'm saying. However I think if there were no Indie game costumes in this pack, it would have definitely had aided in the suggestion that an Indie character ws one of the Chosen fighters for FP2
Of course we just got Kazuya after Heihachi was a Mii Costume in FP2, but I still think the Case for an Indie character being CP11 isn't as strong anymore as before the presentation, but it's still viable
-This goes into Rumor territory, but I find it interesting that both Dante and Dragonborn were shown off here.
This person is controversial, and hasn't been mentioned in a while, but Fatmanonice once predicted that Dragonborn was going to be Fighter 5, thanks to his Speculation and "Insider knowledge". Of course that didn't end up being the case, but it's kinda interesting to see Dragonborn actually be represented in some capacity
He also said that he heard for people that Dante and/or Dante-like Figure was seen to be in development, but really early. If this was true, this could be of the Mii costume, and why the phrase "Dante-like Figure" was used
I personally also had someone that told me that Dante was gonna be Fighter 5, along with some other form of Information. Some of the info like there being Ubisoft Costumes (And it was specifically said to be Rabbids), and there being a Namco character that's not Lloyd and comes with arcade like Music (which Tekken has) were true, but obviously the main claim of Dante as Fighter 5 was false, but we see Dante has Mii Costume
One of the interesting things between both situations were the hearing of Assist characters being considered, with Waluigi being mentioned by both, though this personal source also Mentioned Bomberman, Shovel Knight, and Shadow. We see that Bomberman did get a Mii Costume.
If you want to argue for Waluigi in the context of Rumors, along with both these claims, there was Paraleak, which while the proposed conclusion was not true, seemed to be based of Info that would later turn out to be true in other forms, and Papageno's July Evidence that included Geno, Waluigi, and Other Unlikely characters (which likely includes Shadow if the speculated piece is the source of the evidence)
All of this is a stretch, but I think it was just worth sharing though
-Sega is in a interesting spot. They have had no Mii Costumes come along in FP2 at all, and we do know that they are involved with FP2 thanks to Sonic and Bayonetta's appearances in Steve and Sephiroth's trailer, and the Sonic 30th Spirit event
There is the case to be made that Sega's costumes were front-loaded in FP1 and they just won't get more. Namco did not get any costumes in FP1, and it's seeming that Namco just had the returning costumes as it's only additions to the Mii Lineup, as they got no new Mii Costumes at all
In any case, Sega's absence in FP2 is kind of interesting, and I think when taking into account some of the statements about why certain characters were chosen, Sega is a interesting subject for both explanation of what we got in FP1 and FP2, and also perhaps the future of FP2, but it depends on what conclusion you want to go with
Joker and Persona were not mentioned as something that Nintendo was adamant about having, unlike with Hero, Byleth, Steve, and Kazuya. If we want to go with the proposed FP1 Lineup theory, there are different angles that could be taken
---Perhaps Sega was not actually among the first choices that Nintendo was banking on, but perhaps a different company was involved in terms of Nintendo's proposed lineup. In my Opinion, if that's the case, it does seem like it was likely one of the below options
--Capcom, more specifically with Resident Evil and/or Monster Hunter. These franchises are the Heavy hitters of Capcom in terms of sales, more than even Street Fighter and Mega Man, and more than Devil May Cry and Ace Attorney. Monster Hunter Especially is a franchise that Nintendo is well acquainted with
If rumors are any indication, there was some attempts for both Resident Evil and Monster Hunter to be represented with Playable characters. However the plans ended up falling through for both, at least for Playable representation
--Disney/Square, with Kingdom Hearts. Considering how popular the Franchise is, and the amount of Requests for Sora, I think Kingdom Hearts probably was on Nintendo's mind, and rumors do indicate that they tried for his inclusion, but it fell through. Having both Sora and Hero in the Same pass might seem weird, but I think because they appeal to different audiences, I think it works out
Remember that we usually are not gonna here the stories of the characters/franchises that weren't able to be made possible in Smash in playable form.
---Sega may have been on the Proposed list, but not with Persona, but perhaps with Shin Megami Tensi
There has been a user on Gamefaqs by the name of Megatenhistory saying alot of these points, but there is the angle that perhaps Nintendo, seeing the Popularity of Persona on other Consoles, might be trying to make Shin Megami Tensi Nintendo's own form of Persona
Shin Megami Tensi was mentioned as being the bridge in terms of history between Nintendo and Persona, despite Persona not really being on Nintendo consoles that much. despite this, Shin Megami tensi is not present at all in Smash
The theory is that Nintendo does know that at the current moment of FP1 selection, that Persona was the bigger entity than Shin Megami Tensi, however they might be using Persona's popularity to it's advantage to prop up Shin Megami Tensi to be a Powerhouse of the Nintendo software
So while Shin Megami Tensi might be the Long term in terms of what Nintendo wants in terms of not only a Smash character, but also in terms of Software, they knew they had to use Persona in the short term to be able to make the impact of Shin Megami Tensi being in Smash a big deal. Persona in Smash not only introduces the Persona audience from other Consoles to the Nintendo system, but it also introduces unknowing Nintendo fans to the Persona Style game
By getting more people used to the Style of the Persona games through Smash, the Shin Megami Tensi games, which while not the same, do share influence with Persona, can flourish with a Bigger audience, and a Bigger audience for Shin Megami Tensi would be what Nintendo would want in this case. So with Nintendo advertising Shin Megami Tensei V, they are advertising to a bigger audience than ever seen for Shin Megami Tensi game
This could culminate in SMTV being used as the Byleth of the game, as a character from a game that people will be playing at the time of the release of the character. They know that People will be familiar with the style of SMT thanks to it's previous history on Nintendo Consoles, and the shared relations with Persona, which has now been exposed to Nintendo audience, so like how they are confident in adding in Fire Emblem characters as DLC, they would be confident in adding a Shin Megami Tensi character in the same way
However, even if Sega wasn't intially involved in Nintendo's proposed list of characters, they still in a good spot in terms of the CP11 slot, as Sega has an option that is similar to Sephiroth's position in FP2: Another Sonic character
Sephiroth is a Popular character from a Popular game/Franchise, however he doesn't appeal to any new audience in the way that characters like Steve and Kazuya do. In that same token, that's the same case with Any new Sonic character.
Of course, There are many ways that CP11 can go, and some of those ways don't involve Sega at all. The Extra Fighters comment might also be looked into way too much, or the number isn't as Concrete, and there may be another Franchise that Nintendo might have really wanted that's not present yet, but I think Kazuya's Presentation adds some addition info that helps out the Speculation of the Last CP11 characters
-The League of Legends rumor still lives on, along with the Falcom rumor, though the League rumors is stronger since it did get something related to Smash right. They should be watched for in terms of CP11
TL;DR
-Steve/Kazuya might have been the "1 or 2" Extra Fighters that Sakurai intially mentioned in regards to Fighters that would have been added after FP1, even if FP2 wasn't a thing. This is because both of these characters were specifically said to have been wanted by Nintendo to be in Smash
-The FP1 lineup we got might not have been the one that Nintendo might have preferred at first. A lineup including Hero, Steve, Kazuya, and Byleth might have been the plan, and because Steve and Kazuya were so mechanically complex, they had to wait to be added
-Sakurai mentioned how the Mii characters in this Pack were very popular might hint towards CP11 being more of an Optimistic ending, in terms of appealing to the fanbase. However this is a huge stretch though
-Shantae appearing in this Mii Pack hurts the suggestion that an Indie character was chosen to be CP11. it doesn't deconfirm the idea, but it doesn't make the suggestion as strong
-Rumors had both Dante and Dragonborn pegged as Fighter 5 (before it was revealed to be Byleth), and they happened to both be Mii Costumes in this pack. The rumors do come from VERY controversial sources, but it is interesting
Assist characters, most prominently Waluigi were heard alot by these sources
-Sega is in an interesting position since they have had no Mii Content or Character content in FP2 yet, despite being present in FP1. however they could have been frontloaded, in the same way Namco was backloaded
-Sega might not intially been among the Companies that Nintendo wanted to Focus on for FP1. It likely might have been Capcom, but the plans with them fell through
However Sega could have been in the Plan, involving Shin Megami Tensi, which requires the long haul approach due to the circumstances around Shin Megami Tensi
-The League Rumor and Falcom rumor is still alive, and might need to be watched for in terms of CP11
who of course finished off the last game's DLC.
