Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[RileyXY1]

How many third parties in Smash have had a crossover with Mario outside of Smash? Sonic.

How many times have we gotten a smaller series before the bigger series of a company? Mega Man, Pac-Man, Banjo.

Who has Ubisoft themselves been pushing to get into Smash? You guessed it, Rayman.

He still has the lack of Japanese popularity to deal with, and Ezio is really popular in Japan to the point where he made a guest appearance in Soul Calibur 5.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Is it just me or has the reaching gotten even stronger after kazuya

 

[Twilord]

this was pretty much my reaction when I got Sephiroth
I'm more of a MK and MvC fan before Tekken, but this was a huge W for the fighting game community and I'm glad they went with this pick (even if I would've slightly preferred Jin, both Namco & Tekken deserved a rep).
It's weird, nearly all of the FP1 picks weren't enough to get me hooked on the DLC, those characters just kinda existed to me. Nothing compared to the absolute bombshell that FP2 has been, with nearly everyone being characters I like (bar Min Min, I don't hate her but I'm not familiar with her game) or that I actively wanted. Best Smash game I've ever played, period.

Personally getting Mythra/Pyra was the moment of contentment for me. Kazuya proved that to me because I felt perfectly satisfied; although part of that might have been that the only thing wrong about my theory was that I wasn't being conspiratorial enough.

We still got an in-house ongoing Bandai Namco series which had an impact on eSports comparable to the impact of V-Pets on casual gaming, and with similar cultural awareness outside of "hardcore gamers". Also Tekken is Tekkenically in the Digimon Multiverse and Agumon was announced for Smash Bros. Crusade less than 24 hours prior, which is comical to me.

 

[Technomage]

Is it just me or has the reaching gotten even stronger after kazuya

Well, he did break a major fanrule.

 

[TheMightyP]

I think that, for variety sake, a non humanoid character could have its chance, for the last slot.

Well, to not break too much the leitmotiv of this pass let's do that is not a human but still something near to it, like for example, mmm, a primate.
Then, since Smash has still a roster severely unbalanced toward male reps, let's choose a female one.

And mmm, since Nintendo seems to like this color for their characters hair, let's say she will have blond and long hair.

Oh, and since there is the rule we can't end on a megaton of hype character, we should choose a first party character, maybe from an already represented series, which still can provide many contents in terms of songs and spirits table, and moreover a series that is still active and it's very likely will have a new game next year, so it can also be an advertising/shilling character, like all revealed-at-the-end-of-a-dlc-cycle character.

Ok, but WHO should we pick? Mmm, some ideas anyone?

YES, I'VE BEEN ASKING FOR A BLOON TOWER DEFENSE REP FOR SO LONG

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Who has Ubisoft themselves been pushing to get into Smash? You guessed it, Rayman.

Nowhere have I seen them actively push for Rayman to be in smash, maybe Im not looking at the right things, idk

 

[JamesDNaux]

He still has the lack of Japanese popularity to deal with, and Ezio is really popular in Japan to the point where he made a guest appearance in Soul Calibur 5.

Even if it's not Rayman, I really hope someone adds this not popular in Japan "rule" to the pile of broken ones.

Does Japan popularity have anything to do with Ezio being in Soul Calibur? Isn't there some guy from a zombie show or other in Tekken?

Nowhere have I seen them actively push for Raymond to be in smash, maybe Im not looking at the right things, idk

That's because they're pushing for Rayman.

 

[TheMightyP]

Y'all keep speculating with these safe as hell picks when this whole pass has had characters nobody thought would get in for one reason or another.

I don't think that's gonna change with the last character. Think further beyond the popular demand.

 

[Gengar84]

Even if it's not Rayman, I really hope someone adds this not popular in Japan "rule" to the pile of broken ones.

Does Japan popularity have anything to do with Ezio being in Soul Calibur? Isn't there some guy from a zombie show or other in Tekken?


That's because they're pushing for Rayman.

I for one would be happy with Raymond. I think he’s the one character that everybody would love.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Sakurai did two more POTDs last night, related to Anniversaries.

1985年のきょう『レッキングクルー』(Wrecking Crew)ファミコン版が発売!!
前年夏に出たアーケード版は､対面型の筐体で同じステージの表と裏に介在して楽しめました｡
スマブラでは､ステージとゴールデンハンマーが登場します｡ゴールデンハンマーは､ボタン連打で宙に浮く裏ワザも再現!#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/lL6btLZOGN

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) June 18, 2021

Today in 1985, the Famicom version of "Wrecking Crew" is on sale !! The arcade version released in the summer of the previous year was enjoyed by interposing on the front and back of the same stage in a face-to-face housing. In Smash Bra, a stage and a golden hammer will appear. The golden hammer also reproduces the back tricks that float in the air by repeatedly hitting the button! #Smash Bros SP

2009年のきょう『トモダチコレクション』発売!!
海外の展開は､続編『トモダチコレクション 新生活』(Tomodachi Life)から｡つまり日本だけだったのだけど､それでも350万本を越える大ヒットとなりました｡
トモダチが多いほど面白いソフトなのだけど､それが何よりムズカシイ｡#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/I1XwPsTX8e

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) June 18, 2021

"Tomodachi Collection" released today in 2009 !! The overseas expansion is from the sequel "Tomodachi Life". In other words, it was only in Japan, but it was still a big hit with over 3.5 million copies. The more tomodachi, the more interesting the software is, but above all, it's ugly. #Smash Bros SP

 

[RileyXY1]

Even if it's not Rayman, I really hope someone adds this not popular in Japan "rule" to the pile of broken ones.

It will never be broken because Nintendo would never put in a character that will sell poorly in their home country. That is just bad business, and why many characters designed to appeal to Western audiences tend to be added in the base roster.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

If I can be confident in anything at this point, it’s that the last character is probably someone who isn’t really on many people’s radar. We’ve gotten several characters at this point that no one really expected and I can totally see that happening again. The Battletoads also fit this but so do hundreds of other characters so it really isn’t that strong a point in their favor.

Dude
Most of the DLC characters weren't on our radars.

Minus Alpharad who threw his name out FOR FUN, no one saw Joker coming.
Hero and Banjo are exceptions imo, both were highly requested and anticipated fighters for a while
If the SNK leak never happened, Terry would've been such a surprise
Only a few thought of Byleth being CP5
No one expected ARMS to start off Pass 2
Steve was a character that was 50/50, some saw it could happen, others couldn't
Sephiroth was a giant eye opener to how much less stingy Square actually is, and villain DLC characters weren't speculated on as much
Pythra was talked about, but NOT without Rex
and now, Kazuya, well everyone thought either "No tekken rep, Heihachi's out" or "Jin Kazama, if anything"
So you're probably right at this point

 

[Gengar84]

Y'all keep speculating with these safe as hell picks when this whole pass has had characters nobody thought would get in for one reason or another.

I don't think that's gonna change with the last character. Think further beyond the popular demand.

Ummm… I don’t know if I’d call the Battletoads a safe pick. I don’t think I’ve ever seen another person predict them.

 

[Twilord]

Y'all keep speculating with these safe as hell picks when this whole pass has had characters nobody thought would get in for one reason or another.

I don't think that's gonna change with the last character. Think further beyond the popular demand.

Alright you want a prediction no one sees coming?

We get Mametchi and Lloyd Mii Costumes, then we end with WaruPeach. The most neglected of the Wa-characters.

 

[Technomage]

Even if it's not Rayman, I really hope someone adds this not popular in Japan "rule" to the pile of broken ones.

Does Japan popularity have anything to do with Ezio being in Soul Calibur? Isn't there some guy from a zombie show or other in Tekken?


That's because they're pushing for Rayman.

Nah, we're not getting Rayman or Raymond; we're getting a man called Ray:

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Wait
Ubisoft has no rep
We COULD easily get its platformer icon Rayman first
But...
Another Ubisoft series, Assassin's Creed
Got a movie
Its games are beloved worldwide
and um

Kazuya - Bamco
Bamco - SoulCalibur
SoulCalibur - SoulCalibur 5
SoulCalibur 5 - Ezio

Reaching at its finest XD
But fr,

 

[TheMightyP]

We get Mametchi.

Actually, it is a bit odd that there is no Tamagotchi representation in the game...

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Also, the song played during the showcasing of Altair's Mii Costume is called "Ezio's Family"

The Case for Ezio

I have previously examined the merits of other Ubisoft characters joining the Smash roster, namely Rayman and the Prince of Persia, but even then I knew that I was doing a disservice to another mar…

sourcegaming.info

Can't wait for some people to lock in CP11 being disappointing only for it to be this guy
Not saying I think it's 100% Ezio, but imagine.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Speaking of Rayman and Croc, a PS1 game, selling just as much as Banjo, Rayman was the highest selling PS1 game in the UK. It's literally the game that put Ubisoft on the map and allowed them to become the juggernaut they are to this day. People like to forget the legacy of something just because it hasn't been around in recent times. Hell, the series still outsells the Rabbids series that supposedly usurped him.

How many third parties in Smash have had a crossover with Mario outside of Smash? Sonic.

How many times have we gotten a smaller series before the bigger series of a company? Mega Man, Pac-Man, Banjo.

Who has Ubisoft themselves been pushing to get into Smash? You guessed it, Rayman.

Tbf, Rayman is in this weird spot where he's decently popular and seems to be directly pushed by Ubi themselves, but most of his popularity comes from outside of Japan. If it wasn't for the fact that we only have a single slot left, I'd have more faith in him, but as it stands, it would be really out of character for Nintendo to end DLC on a pick that doesn't have a lot of traction in Japan.

So basically, you'd think he only has a single hurdle in front of him... but said hurdle is also a big one.

 

[JamesDNaux]

It will never be broken because Nintendo would never put in a character that will sell poorly in their home country. That is just bad business, and why many characters designed to appeal to Western audiences tend to be added in the base roster.

Japan is a fraction of the market, I'm sure Nintendo would weep over the loss of Japanese sales with sales pouring in from the rest of the world.

Or Japan can just get over it and buy him anyway like the rest of us when RPG McSwordguy drops. Plenty of them probably already bought the whole pass.

 

[Twilord]

Actually, it is a bit odd that there is no Tamagotchi representation in the game...

Honestly yeah! Part of why I thought we'd see Digimon since it was "the Tamagotchi that fight" for the first couple years of its life. I actually asked my friend who is well versed on Tamagotchi who the most likely Spirits for the franchise would be.

 

[Speed Weed]

Y'all keep speculating with these safe as hell picks when this whole pass has had characters nobody thought would get in for one reason or another.

I don't think that's gonna change with the last character. Think further beyond the popular demand.

let's ****ing go

 

[RileyXY1]

Japan is a fraction of the market, I'm sure Nintendo would weep over the loss of Japanese sales with sales pouring in from the rest of the world.

Or Japan can just get over it and buy him anyway like the rest of us when RPG McSwordguy drops. Plenty of them probably already bought the whole pass.

Japan is not only their home market, it's also their biggest market. Smash has always disproportionally appealed to Japan over the rest of the world, and it's even been called a celebration of Japanese gaming specifically.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Sakurai did two more POTDs last night, related to Anniversaries.

1985年のきょう『レッキングクルー』(Wrecking Crew)ファミコン版が発売!!
前年夏に出たアーケード版は､対面型の筐体で同じステージの表と裏に介在して楽しめました｡
スマブラでは､ステージとゴールデンハンマーが登場します｡ゴールデンハンマーは､ボタン連打で宙に浮く裏ワザも再現!#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/lL6btLZOGN

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) June 18, 2021

Today in 1985, the Famicom version of "Wrecking Crew" is on sale !! The arcade version released in the summer of the previous year was enjoyed by interposing on the front and back of the same stage in a face-to-face housing. In Smash Bra, a stage and a golden hammer will appear. The golden hammer also reproduces the back tricks that float in the air by repeatedly hitting the button! #Smash Bros SP

2009年のきょう『トモダチコレクション』発売!!
海外の展開は､続編『トモダチコレクション 新生活』(Tomodachi Life)から｡つまり日本だけだったのだけど､それでも350万本を越える大ヒットとなりました｡
トモダチが多いほど面白いソフトなのだけど､それが何よりムズカシイ｡#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/I1XwPsTX8e

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) June 18, 2021

"Tomodachi Collection" released today in 2009 !! The overseas expansion is from the sequel "Tomodachi Life". In other words, it was only in Japan, but it was still a big hit with over 3.5 million copies. The more tomodachi, the more interesting the software is, but above all, it's ugly. #Smash Bros SP

My man called Tomorachi Life ugly

Hes right

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Tbf, Rayman is in this weird spot where he's decently popular and seems to be directly pushed by Ubi themselves, but most of his popularity comes from outside of Japan. If it wasn't for the fact that we only have a single slot left, I'd have more faith in him, but as it stands, it would be really out of character for Nintendo to end DLC on a pick that doesn't have a lot of traction in Japan.

So basically, you'd think he only has a single hurdle in front of him... but said hurdle is also a big one.

I agree with you on how Rayman would def be a character that would get more hype in the West than in the East, here's the thing.
Wouldn't adding him add more meaning to "Everyone is Here!"? It's showing how there's a character for everybody, for every demographic. In fact, DLC ending on a Western character would be a big deal imo.

 

[RileyXY1]

Also, none of the DLC characters appealed specifically to Western audiences. They either had appeal worldwide or appealed specifically to Japanese audiences.

 

[TheMightyP]

let's ****ing go

My Sega All Stars racing main

 

[Momotsuki]

Steve was a bit of a Schrödinger's cat much like Dante and Ryu Hayabusa have been and still are (things are gonna get ugly, aren't they?)
I'm not sure you can call him a totally unexpected pick.
I'll admit I kind of gave up on his odds after the first pass, but that was wrong of me and thank goodness it was.

 

[Spatman]

Japan is not only their home market, it's also their biggest market. Smash has always disproportionally appealed to Japan over the rest of the world, and it's even been called a celebration of Japanese gaming specifically.

I'm quite sure it's the U.S. their biggest market

Buuuut, we could say also that this means U.S. people like Nintendo philosophy and so in order to keep selling well in the west Nintendo has to keep doing games with their philosophy, that is a japan-centric one

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Also, none of the DLC characters appealed specifically to Western audiences. They either had appeal worldwide or appealed specifically to Japanese audiences.

Banjo-Kazooie was a specific Western pick, it's not that popular in Japan.

 

[DarthEnderX]

It'd never happen, but imagine a weird world where we get a Stage Pass DLC. What stages would you want?

I kinda just want the rest of the missing stages from previous games to return.

EVERYWHERE IS HERE!

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Actually, hold up
I think ending the pass on a character that'd appeal more to Western folks could work.
Hear me out:
We're 5 characters in: each from a different series and genre (mostly) of their own, beloved by their own group of fans.
We got three giant third party characters that most certainly pulled in Minecraft, FF, and Tekken fans who don't play Smash... causing them to want to play Smash.
We got two beloved Switch-era Nintendo characters from games that sold well and set a mark on the said Switch era, both early, too, since they both came out on the same year the Switch did.
To a major extent, all 5 of these characters appeal to the eastern audience.
Adding a Western character NOW, while the pass is almost over, and while (No data available online, but I'm sure) many eastern fans bought the pass in full capacity, won't hurt Nintendo marketing wise.
Meanwhile, this respective Western character could be bought in much larger ratios in the west, thus making lots of money for Nintendo and therefore, playing out as a good marketing move.
Additionally, you could pull in a new audience to Smash at the last minute.
Thoughts?

 

[Gengar84]

Also, none of the DLC characters appealed specifically to Western audiences. They either had appeal worldwide or appealed specifically to Japanese audiences.

Was Banjo really that big worldwide? I always just assumed he was mostly popular in the west.

 

[RileyXY1]

Was Banjo really that big worldwide? I always just assumed he was mostly popular in the west.

I remember hearing once that they were popular requests in Japan.

 

[SKX31]

Japan is not only their home market, it's also their biggest market. Smash has always disproportionally appealed to Japan over the rest of the world, and it's even been called a celebration of Japanese gaming specifically.

I'm quite sure it's the U.S. their biggest market

Buuuut, we could say also that this means U.S. people like Nintendo philosophy and so in order to keep selling well in the west Nintendo has to keep doing games with their philosophy, that is a japan-centric one

Spatman's more or less correct. While "The Americas" includes both North and South America, I'm pretty sure that the US makes up a significant chunk of it (although Canada, Mexico etc. are also major contributors):

 

[JamesDNaux]

Banjo-Kazooie was a specific Western pick, it's not that popular in Japan.

Was Banjo really that big worldwide? I always just assumed he was mostly popular in the west.

Banjo outsold Persona 5 in Japan. As much as I'd love to use Banjo as a boom to western characters, I hate seeing people downplay his worldwide appeal.

In Japan, Banjo-Kazooie sold better than Persona 5 and every Xenoblade game—and on a much smaller install base. Donkey Kong Country remains the 54th best-selling game ever in Japan and the best-selling Western game period behind Tetris and Minecraft. The numbers don't lie. pic.twitter.com/bMyNwAz6Jh

— Kremling Kampaigner (@KRoolKountry) June 6, 2021

Hell, Joker is a primarily western appeal character since P5 sold much better outside of Japan and he was revealed at the Game Awards of all places.

 

[3BitSaurus]

I agree with you on how Rayman would def be a character that would get more hype in the West than in the East, here's the thing.
Wouldn't adding him add more meaning to "Everyone is Here!"? It's showing how there's a character for everybody, for every demographic. In fact, DLC ending on a Western character would be a big deal imo.

Generally, I'd say yes, considering how most of the sales come from the west.

Thing is... that's not really how Nintendo has operated in the past. Arguably the closest thing we've ever got to a western-centric character being last was... Wolf, back in Brawl. Everyone else was kinda popular in both.

That's why I'm not counting on western reps in general finishing off the Pass. Personally, I'd love to be wrong, because let's face it: for every time Nintendo catered to the west with picks like Ridley and Little Mac, there's like 3~5 more times that they catered to Japan specifically.

And it's hard to see Nintendo ditching their roots like that - even moreso with most popular picks being from japanese studios anyway. Let's not forget that Dragon Quest was Square's second best-selling series until very recently, with Tomb Raider catching up to it. Tekken and Street Fighter usually do better as fighting games than Mortal Kombat, and so on. So it's not like they're picking series that are only popular in Japan, either.

 

[Faso115]

Kazuya is very interesting considering he is very important character in Tekken. I would say he is equally important to Jin and only loses to Heihachi since he is seemingly the mascot but Kazuya has always been a very important face of Tekken. He was the protagonist of Tekken 1 and the only reason he fell off our radar is because he's become a villain since the second game, which is an interesting progression for a character like him.

Does he break the protagonist rule? The answer is: maybe? I dont know, he always remained important so maybe he never lost that status and he is just another reminder of the tunnel vision of the speculation scene.

 

[Wunderwaft]

It will never be broken because Nintendo would never put in a character that will sell poorly in their home country.

Ya jinxed it. Now that you said "never", we'll definitely get a character not popular in Japan as the final pick.

 

[RileyXY1]

Generally, I'd say yes, considering how most of the sales come from the west.

Thing is... that's not really how Nintendo has operated in the past. Arguably the closest thing we've ever got to a western-centric character being last was... Wolf, back in Brawl. Everyone else was kinda popular in both.

That's why I'm not counting on western reps in general finishing off the Pass. Personally, I'd love to be wrong, because let's face it: for every time Nintendo catered to the west with picks like Ridley and Little Mac, there's like 3~5 more times that they catered to Japan specifically.

And it's hard to see Nintendo ditching their roots like that - even moreso with most popular picks being from japanese studios anyway. Let's not forget that Dragon Quest was Square's second best-selling series until very recently, with Tomb Raider catching up to it. Tekken and Street Fighter usually do better as fighting games than Mortal Kombat, and so on. So it's not like they're picking series that are only popular in Japan, either.

Yeah, and the only Western characters we've gotten so far were both from Microsoft, who have been friends with Nintendo recently, and one was considered an honorary Nintendo character and the other hailed from the best selling game ever.