Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[zferolie]

We still don't have a sega rep this pass but there is a certain pattern for the DLC. Usually it goes

Popular JRPG character -Sephiroth/Hero
First Party Promotion- Min Min/Byleth/Pyra Mythra
Fan Requested character- Banjo/ ???
Character for mass appeal- Joker/Steve. Persona 5 is way more popular in Japan, so it's more mass appeal to Japan, but I guess it fits in the "popular JRPG" category too.

2D Fighting game character- Kazuya/Terry/

Literally the only gauge that isn't filled yet is fan requested character, which could fit Waluigi perfectly. This pattern has literally held up since Smash 4 with Cloud, Ryu and Lucas and Roy for the fans. The DLC has remained the same since.

If Nintendo is predictable (which they basically have been with the types of characters they've been choosing), it will end on Waluigi.

You say that points to Waluigi, I say that and other signs point to Shantae

 

[WahHahaha]

We're only waiting on the last character for Ultimate and we're still trying to make patterns.

It's not really a made up pattern though, it's how the DLC is been holding up.

If anything, it's noticing the business decisions of Nintendo instead of just pointing out something completely random. I was predicting we'd get a fighting game character, even though I didn't predict Kazuya, it happened.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Ok, but even if they didn't remove the spirits they'd still have to adjust the spirit battles and remove the trophy, it still requires a good amount of work.

I mean...how many Spirit Battles force Waluigi? I don't think it's very many. Even if they had to comb through them all, that would be the hardest part as far as I know.

Coding it so the trophy doesn't appear might be even more complicated though. It would have to happen every time Waluigi is playable, and then the trophy can spawn again when he's not.

I'm pretty sure it's handled with a simple conditional clause; If one of the players is Waluigi, then don't spawn Waluigi. Even if it's not that simple though, it's definitely nothing they haven't done before. For example:

• Playing as King Dedede on Dream Land removes him from the background.
• The Boxing Ring stage is able to detect which fighters are in the match and picks them at random to display on the sign.
• Alucard doesn't appear on Wii Fit Studio.
• The Moon doesn't appear on Great Bay Temple.

They're able to detect which fighters are in the match, and they're able to remove Assist Trophies from the roulette if need be, so what's to say that they can't detect a fighter and remove an Assist Trophy from the roulette? The biggest issue that I can see is the one you brought up with Spirit Battles that force Waluigi, and that really just depends on how they plan on dealing with the battles and how quickly they could execute that plan.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I guess the ending is either something happens that really cripples the Federation or maybe something regarding Samus and the Chozo, considering the living Chozo in the trailer and the Samus Returns remake mentioning an evil Chozo faction or something.

They were definitely setting up a future game with that. Just curious if it was dread, or Prime 4.

Second we saw someone was carrying Ganondorf I knew it was a Tekken reference but thought it was Heihachi until Kazuya's eye sparked red.

I didn't think Tekken till I saw the cliff.

One character remains to come, who will be the lucky one to take the last place?

 

[Inferno7]

Tekken has sold almost the double the amount of units as Dark Souls.

yes that's right, but Tekken has also been around for much longer.
Dark Souls wasn't a thing before early 2010s yet it managed to sell over 27 million copies. and Dark Souls III has sold even more than Tekken 3 iirc.
It's a more recent gaming phenomenon therefore more profitable, which is why I edited my post but I don't think I worded it to well, I think profitable would be the best choice of words here.

 

[N3ON]

Coding it so the trophy doesn't appear might be even more complicated though. It would have to happen every time Waluigi is playable, and then the trophy can spawn again when he's not.

That just doesn't seem very possible to me, they'd probably remove it.

They already have that function for many ATs depending on the stage. It's not hard to simply disable an outcome based on the fighters present. They already have stage changes based on characters present such as Dedede with Dream Land and TL with Spirit Train.

You don't have to look at those 2 though, just look at everyone. Most characters are released at least 3 months apart which might not even be the case for Waluigi. "Stretching out" is not normal and we would have gotten a double reveal if CP11 was ready, it just wouldn't make sense not to have one. They're actually lowering the hype if they don't.

Stretching it out is absolutely normal - look at the reveal roadmap of the last two games - and when we happen to get multiple reveals at once it's because the supply is such to facilitate future reveals intermittently. They don't have that now, and the consequence of having the double reveal would mean the hype is then mostly over, which maybe they didn't want this far away from the actual release of CP11.

 

[Inferno7]

We still don't have a sega rep this pass but there is a certain pattern for the DLC. Usually it goes

Popular JRPG character -Sephiroth/Hero
First Party Promotion- Min Min/Byleth/Pyra Mythra
Fan Requested character- Banjo/ ???
Character for mass appeal- Joker/Steve. Persona 5 is way more popular in Japan, so it's more mass appeal to Japan, but I guess it fits in the "popular JRPG" category too.

2D Fighting game character- Kazuya/Terry/

Literally the only gauge that isn't filled yet is fan requested character, which could fit Waluigi perfectly. This pattern has literally held up since Smash 4 with Cloud, Ryu and Lucas and Roy for the fans. The DLC has remained the same since.

If Nintendo is predictable (which they basically have been with the types of characters they've been choosing), it will end on Waluigi.

I see one big problem against Waluigi

what spirits would he even bring with him? don't tell me it will be C-Listers from spin off games, so far most of the DLC boards contain worthwile inclusions.

also Tekken is 3D

 

[TheCJBrine]

Ah, yes. My favorite Smash wanted, Alberto.

He was the dude that joined the chain and tagged Harada and Sakurai with an Infinity War meme, wasn’t he? The chain was started by ForSmash accounts, some other users joined in. Harada flat-out @ a few of the ForSmash accounts…

It seems you don’t really know all about it, either, if you even really care…although I suppose that’s obvious now since that’s all you had to say to my reply ._.

 

[WahHahaha]

They already have that function for many ATs depending on the stage. It's not hard to simply disable an outcome based on the fighters present. They already have stage changes based on characters present such as Dedede with Dream Land and TL with Spirit Train.


Stretching it out is absolutely normal - look at the reveal roadmap of the last two games - and when we happen to get multiple reveals at once it's because the supply is such to facilitate future reveals intermittently. They don't have that now, and the consequence of having the double reveal would mean the hype is then mostly over, which maybe they didn't want this far away from the actual release of CP11.

I don't really agree on the hype being "mostly over" if we got a CP11 announcement.

300k people were watching Nintendo's E3 Stream live. Half a million if you count the youtube and twitch combined, and close to a million if you count the streamers that were costreaming it these directs are always massively hyped and that's definitely a broad audience to reach to. I don't think they'd leave a character out just for the sake of stretching it out.

I feel like the "reprogramming" is easier for a stage than a whole fighter, maybe they could do that though. You could be right. I think they'll just remove the trophy though.

 

[Shroob]

They were definitely setting up a future game with that. Just curious if it was dread, or Prime 4.

It's weird.


Doesn't the Secret Ridley Fight at the end of Samus returns imply it's post Prime-3? So then, if true, how exactly does the Prime/mainline timeline flow, and where the hell will 4 fit.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I’m so happy that this is the first thing you’ve said to me in years.

What happened to you Noi?

One second you're the most pure person in the thread, and now you're advocating for pure, unadulterated sin (vampires are literally blasphemous I swg).

The years haven't been kind, I suppose...

Spoiler

for real though I've missed you a lot

I'm sticking around for a bit based on the new reveal. I've got nothing to offer speculation wise though. Everything we've thought was true is out the window and anyone is on the table right now as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I feel like the "reprogramming" is easier for a stage than a whole fighter, maybe they could do that though

Did you think it was incredibly difficult for them to give Gray Fox alternate dialog for when Snake is around? They're not spaghetti coders you know.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I see one big problem against Waluigi

what spirits would he even bring with him? don't tell me it will be C-Listers from spin off games, so far most of the DLC boards contain worthwile inclusions.

I don't think a lack of Spirits would keep a character out, I'm sure that they would think of something that fits a theme.

And honestly, Waluigi is such a weird character that they could probably get away with anything, from a "Wacky Competitors" theme that has a bunch of strange spin-off characters like Chain Chomp (Mario Tennis Aces), Goomba (Super Mario Sluggers), and Petey Piranha (Mario Strikers: Charged), to literally just "Waluigi Time" where every Spirit contains or straight up is a version of Waluigi.

 

[Shroob]

Yeah, it wouldn't be hard to upgrade an assist and simply shut off the assist when playable.


I don't think they'll do it, since there's 1 character left, and I feel like Nintendo would choose either a Switch-era 1st party or 3rd party character for that last spot, but it's 100% doable.

 

[Noipoi]

What happened to you Noi?

One second you're the most pure person in the thread, and now you're advocating for pure, unadulterated sin (vampires are literally blasphemous I swg).

The years haven't been kind, I suppose...

View attachment 319502

Spoiler

for real though I've missed you a lot

I'm sticking around for a bit based on the new reveal. I've got nothing to offer speculation wise though. Everything we've thought was true is out the window and anyone is on the table right now as far as I'm concerned.

2020 changed us all…

Good to see you tho hope you’re doin good

 

[Inferno7]

I don't think a lack of Spirits would keep a character out, I'm sure that they would think of something that fits a theme.

And honestly, Waluigi is such a weird character that they could probably get away with anything, from a "Wacky Competitors" theme that has a bunch of strange spin-off characters like Chain Chomp (Mario Tennis Aces), Goomba (Super Mario Sluggers), and Petey Piranha (Mario Strikers: Charged), to literally just "Waluigi Time" where every Spirit contains or straight up is a version of Waluigi.

I've seen that idea thrown around a lot too lol, a board filled with just different Waluigi renders would become a meme real fast.

imo it's not impossible since it fits but I'd be really curious as to why they'd choose the literal 10th Mario rep before other franchises even got another, and it doesn't have to be 3rd party, there's Zelda as well.

 

[Guynamednelson]

since there's 1 character left

Yes there's one character left, but they can't cram what the modern speculation base considers all the hype bombs into one slot so why even bother making one? Especially when the pass has already sold?

 

[DarthEnderX]

I would have been hyped at least since I actually recognize him as a gaming icon.

Not anymore. Now Kazuya will be the icon, forever.

So then, if true, how exactly does the Prime/mainline timeline flow

Zero Mission
Prime 1, 2, 3
Returns
Super
Other M
Fusion
Dread

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

2020 changed us all…

Good to see you tho hope you’re doin good

It really did I suppose. Even this account was changed as I left mid-year and have only returned to drop essays when I feel like it.

Actually had an idea for an essay right now actually so good thing I'm here I guess lol.
Things are actually going pretty well on my side of things. Busier than ever but I'm probably in the best mentally/physically than I've been in the past. How have you been holding up?

 

[N3ON]

I don't really agree on the hype being "mostly over" if we got a CP11 announcement.

300k people were watching Nintendo's E3 Stream. Half a million if you count the youtube and twitch combined, and close to a million if you count the streamers that were costreaming it. That's definitely a broad audience to reach to and I don't think they'd leave a character out just for the sake of stretching it out.

But that's not how any game reveals work. Companies show a little bit at a time, and progressively show more of the game in following airings to maintain momentum and keep engagement going. If it worked as you say it does, we'd have seen all we were going to see of Metroid Dread today when they have the highest numbers, but they're obviously going to stretch it out, showing us more before release, such as during the Sept Direct.

And speaking of that Direct, don't you think they'd want to bring eyes from the Smash audience to that as well? You show both characters today, and you'll lose some of that potential engagement in September. You wouldn't have lost any today, because that crowd tuned in regardless. It makes perfect sense why they'd opt to hold on to it. They still open Direct with Smash reveals three years later, they know the attention it commands. Playing both aces at once was possible, but is also a little myopic.

 

[Shroob]

Yes there's one character left, but they can't cram what the modern speculation base considers all the hype bombs into one slot so why even bother making one? Especially when the pass has already sold?

C'mon Nelson, you've worked out enough today, you can put the goalposts down.

 

[Guynamednelson]

C'mon Nelson, you've worked out enough today, you can put the goalposts down.

Look I'm sorry, I just wish people were more open minded about the finale of the pass being something else other than a recent first party or big third party. We already broke the rules with Tekken, we can break the rules with something else.

 

[Noipoi]

It really did I suppose. Even this account was changed as I left mid-year and have only returned to drop essays when I feel like it.

Actually had an idea for an essay right now actually so good thing I'm here I guess lol.
Things are actually going pretty well on my side of things. Busier than ever but I'm probably in the best mentally/physically than I've been in the past. How have you been holding up?

Ahhh, I missed your overly long smash essays.

 

[Shroob]

Look I'm sorry, I just wish people were more open minded about the finale of the pass being something else other than a recent first party or big third party. We already broke the rules with Tekken, we can break the rules with something else.

I mean, I didn't say Big 3rd party, did I? It could 100% be a smaller 3rd party.


Nintendo though, yeah, I'm going to have a hard time believing that one, if only because it'd feel like such a Nintendo move to save the last slot for a game they want to promote. And I don't mean a character like Min Min or Pythra, I mean dead-ass promotion like Corrin.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I mean, I didn't say Big 3rd party, did I? It could 100% be a smaller 3rd party.


Nintendo though, yeah, I'm going to have a hard time believing that one, if only because it'd feel like such a Nintendo move to save the last slot for a game they want to promote. And I don't mean a character like Min Min or Pythra, I mean dead-ass promotion like Corrin.

Did someone say SMTV 5 Protag in Smash?

Because if so I'm totally down.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I've seen that idea thrown around a lot too lol, a board filled with just different Waluigi renders would become a meme real fast.

Yeah it's one of those things that is absolutely ridiculous, but it's so on-brand for the character that you almost expect it in this hypothetical scenario, especially since Waluigi doesn't really have that many connections to characters. It's like Wario and...that's it. Because they're cowards and won't let him into Wario's spin-offs!

imo it's not impossible since it fits but I'd be really curious as to why they'd choose the literal 10th Mario rep before other franchises got another, and it doesn't even have to be 3rd party, there's Zelda as well.

It would likely be for the same reasons as with the 10 Pokémon characters and 8 Fire Emblem characters: It doesn't matter to them as much. Or at least, the characters themselves are more important than reps.

I don't personally see another Super Mario character happening though. Like with most things the possibility is still there but...eeeh.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I mean, I didn't say Big 3rd party, did I? It could 100% be a smaller 3rd party.


Nintendo though, yeah, I'm going to have a hard time believing that one, if only because it'd feel like such a Nintendo move to save the last slot for a game they want to promote. And I don't mean a character like Min Min or Pythra, I mean dead-ass promotion like Corrin.

But since all the recent games seem to be getting spirited, maybe they'll take a different direction for the "controversial first party"? Which to be fair could be anyone in the age of Crashter Chief.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

It's weird.


Doesn't the Secret Ridley Fight at the end of Samus returns imply it's post Prime-3? So then, if true, how exactly does the Prime/mainline timeline flow, and where the hell will 4 fit.

The idea I’ve seen is that every single Prime game takes place in between Metroid 1 and 2.

Can’t be before Metroid 1 because Ridley is Meaty in that game and half metallic in Samus Returns.

The big key is simple, there is only one Non Clone Metroid after Samus Returns, therefore Prime must be before Samus Returns.

That leaves the entire Prime Trilogy inbetween one and two. Where exactly 4 is gonna fall I have no clue, the only thing we know is that Sylux might be there. Thats it, could be anywhere.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I mean, I didn't say Big 3rd party, did I? It could 100% be a smaller 3rd party.


Nintendo though, yeah, I'm going to have a hard time believing that one, if only because it'd feel like such a Nintendo move to save the last slot for a game they want to promote. And I don't mean a character like Min Min or Pythra, I mean dead-ass promotion like Corrin.

The thing is though, all of the characters like this were pretty heavily advertised before there inclusion, and the game Nintendo seems to be pushing the hardest this year isn't even a Nintendo game.

EDIT: Slightly misread this. Too lazy to rethink post. I should probably go to bed anyway. Good night.

 

[Shroob]

But since all the recent games seem to be getting spirited, maybe they'll take a different direction for the "controversial first party"? Which to be fair could be anyone in the age of Crashter Chief.

At the end of the day, I just don't trust Nintendo to pick fan-demanded Nintendo characters for DLC, as awkward as that sounds. Granted, sometimes the two overlap, like Min Min and Pythra.


And I mean, on their end, why wouldn't they approach it like this? It not only works as advertising(I believe I saw ARMs went up like 300k in sales since Min Min came out), but it also helps Ultimate to feel less dated, which, like I brought up the other night, Ultimate launched with 3 Switch-era stages, and 0 Switch-era characters. We now have 6 Switch-era stages and 4 Switch-era characters.


I'm not opposed to the idea, it's just, looking at this strictly from Nintendo's angle, they seem to have their priorities laid out.

 

[Guynamednelson]

At the end of the day, I just don't trust Nintendo to pick fan-demanded Nintendo characters for DLC, as awkward as that sounds. Granted, sometimes the two overlap, like Min Min and Pythra.


And I mean, on their end, why wouldn't they approach it like this? It not only works as advertising(I believe I saw ARMs went up like 300k in sales since Min Min came out), but it also helps Ultimate to feel less dated, which, like I brought up the other night, Ultimate launched with 3 Switch-era stages, and 0 Switch-era characters. We now have 6 Switch-era stages and 4 Switch-era characters.


I'm not opposed to the idea, it's just, looking at this strictly from Nintendo's angle, they seem to have their priorities laid out.

Banjo-Kazooie. And I'm looking at it from a certain angle to: The majority got their characters, why not cater to a minority?

 

[Shroob]

Banjo-Kazooie. And I'm looking at it from a certain angle to: The majority got their characters, why not cater to a minority?

Banjo-Kazooie isn't their property. For all we know, ****ing Phil Spencer actually went up and said "I want Banjo.", we'll never know what went on behind closed doors in regards to 3rd party discussion.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Banjo-Kazooie isn't their property.

I know. But I believe that the ballot was why Banjo was their Plan B for Microsoft in case Sakurai still wasn't ready to work on Steve.

 

[7NATOR]

I may have overestimated the Development speed of both CP10 and CP11. Not only did we not get CP11, but Kazuya is coming like 2 weeks after his Reveal, which is something

I will say though that Kazuya definitely has alot of moves, much more than average. I want to say Kazuya has the most complex mechanics built into him, that could rival Steve perhaps. at the least, Namco likely made the job much easier by already having model of Kazuya and the Animations they've been using for years and years, along with them having experience working on Tekken characters since well...they make Tekken

This may be why CP11 wasn't revealed today, and why we gonna have to wait like always, though there probably is marketing reasons to this as well

Someone on gamefaqs also pointed out how Sakurai now has his Dub Voice again, and it also seemed that the Team was back in the office, so it seems the situation with the Pandemic in Japan is once again, controlled, at least enough for the team to go back to the office

 

[GreninjaMarth]

After Kazuya, my gut’s really telling me Dante. Anyone else feeling this? Capcom has continued to support smash ultimate for so long that it’d be wild if all they have by the end of the game’s dlc cycle is Ken. Microsoft got Steve & Banjo, Square got Hero & Sephiroth, Sega got Joker, and we’ve finally gotten a Tekken rep. Much like Namco previously, Capcom feels incredibly due for a new representative from one of their most popular franchises. They’re the only major company (already represented in smash) that hasn’t received one in the entirety of Ultimate. To clarify once again, I’m talking about new franchises- not an echo fighter of Ken.

Plus, the trend of edgey characters can continue.


Another likely scenario to me is Eggman as the final character. Much like Sephiroth, he isn’t only an iconic villain in the gaming sphere, but he’d add more meat to a poorly represented franchise.

Or, y’know, we could get… uh, Breathe of The Wild Champions.

 

[Idon]

After Kazuya, my gut’s really telling me Dante. Anyone else feeling this?

I've been "feeling this" for 3 years after Bayonetta got added.

It hasn't exactly amounted to much...

 

[Guynamednelson]

Namco likely made the job much easier by already having model of Kazuya and the Animations they've been using for years and years

Those most likely aren't compatible with the Smash skeleton.

 

[Shroob]

I know. But I believe that the ballot was why Banjo was their Plan B for Microsoft in case Sakurai still wasn't ready to work on Steve.

Alright.

But that really doesn't have a lot to do with what I said either. I don't really think Nintendo cares about "A majority" or "A minority", they probably look at us as one big glob.

I may have overestimated the Development speed of both CP10 and CP11. Not only did we not get CP11, but Kazuya is coming like 2 weeks after his Reveal, which is something

I mean, Pythra came 2 weeks after their reveal, it's not really "interesting" as much as it is "They probably scheduled the DLC to launch on this specific date."

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Something I've always found interesting is that Nintendo acknowledges the Waluigi hype and even leans into the memes from time to time, yet, they never give him a proper chance outside of basic spin-offs. Could be cool seeing him in an RPG game, WarioWare, or hell, his own game.

Mario as a franchise can grow and evolve over time, but so rarely makes a bold move like disrupting the status quo. You got the main characters, enemies, and party characters...

 

[DarthEnderX]

Did someone say SMTV 5 Protag in Smash?

A character that I, nor anyone else, knows absolutely nothing about aside from their appearance? No thanks.

I don't understand requesting a character you haven't played yet. They could be a Jar Jar Binks for all we know.