Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[SharkLord]

The thing is, people expectations on the last two fighters (or at least for one of them) are way too high cosidering how thing are going. Master Chief and Crash are the names i heard more. I wouldn't be surprised if that "Phantasy Star" leak end up being true, with Hayabusa and a PS character being the last two fighters, for example. It wouldn't please everyone, but excluding Steve, this pass seem way less focused in bigger names and more focused in implementing cheaper characters from already existing franchises that the smash team wanted to put on the base game - and that trend started not at FP2, but on the last character of the FP1 - Byleth.

Consider whatever we got from now on as a bonus, so i personally don't expect huge gaming characters like most people are expecting - and i think many will be disappointed.

Is nice to speculate and that's why we're here, but hype responsibly.

It wouldn't please everyone, but excluding Steve, this pass seem way less focused in bigger names and more focused in implementing cheaper characters from already existing franchises

Existing franchise, yes, but I wouldn't exactly call Sephiroth cheap. It should also be noted that the Phantabusa leak is more than likely fake, seeing as Hayabusa's been explicitly shot down by the devs.

I'll also say that Byleth was an outlier in their pass. After four packs worth of third-parties and new series, we got a first-party from a series that already has a lot of fighters. I wouldn't be at all surprised if one or both of the last two fighters of FP2 don't fit into the Second Chance Theory at all.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Some people are still clinging onto Hayabusa, huh...

Yeah. Some things just won't leave.

Right, leak-that-shall-not-be-named-because-of-how-cursed-it-is?

 

[N3ON]

The only pattern worth holding on to when predicting DLC is that using the most recent characters as a guide is a bad idea.

 

[Gnateb]

That Phantasy Star leak also said Grezzo was gonna have a Zelda title this year, but they just finished Miitopia.

Also, it didn't mention Pyra and Mythra. Most of the other predictions were very general, or had already been leaked.

About Yasuda, I think he would know? It seemed pretty blatant to me, at least. If he really was in-the-dark about Hayabusa being chosen or not, why would he outright say "no"?

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Existing franchise, yes, but I wouldn't exactly call Sephiroth cheap. It should also be noted that the Phantabusa leak is more than likely fake, seeing as Hayabusa's been explicitly shot down by the devs.

I'll also say that Byleth was an outlier in their pass. After four packs worth of third-parties and new series, we got a first-party from a series that already has a lot of fighters. I wouldn't be at all surprised if one or both of the last two fighters of FP2 don't fit into the Second Chance Theory at all.

Something that is worth noting is that Smash is often a case of taking advantage of opportunities afforded by circumstance. A Steve negotiation likely helped get Banjo and Ken being similar enough to Ryu probably helped make adding another Street Fighter character easier. This second pass certain allowed to fix timing based absences, but it also may have allowed Sakurai/Nintendo to realize all kinds of fighters that were not practical/possible for numerous reasons 2 years ago.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Like I’m curious why WAS Hayabusa in a **** ton of fake leaks

is it cuz he’s popular in smash spec? Literal actual leak bait that people disregarded as such cuz OMFG ITS HAYABUSA? Both????

I sure don’t remember him being this popular in 4 that’s for sure

 

[Cosmic77]

I still think it's hilarious how we were once at a point where Jonsey and Fortnite was likely just because we got Steve. As if "popular character from game that's deemed as cringe" was criteria Nintendo/Sakurai was using when they chose Steve.

 

[N3ON]

Also, it didn't mention Pyra and Mythra. Most of the other predictions were very general, or had already been leaked.

I agree, the leak is almost certainly fake. I just focused on what I believed to be the most glaring indicator, but almost all the claims were also either easy guesses, stuff that was already known, or things that had already been rumoured.

About Yasuda, I think he would know? It seemed pretty blatant to me, at least. If he really didn't know if Hayabusa had been chosen, why would he outright say "no"?

Yeah, I'm taking those comments at face value. I think they're sincere. And if I'm wrong... hey, that means we get Ryu Hayabusa. Neat.

Something that is worth noting is that Smash is often a case of taking advantage of opportunities afforded by circumstance. A Steve negotiation likely helped get Banjo and Ken being similar enough to Ryu probably helped make adding another Street Fighter character easier. This second pass certain allowed to fix timing based absences, but it also may have allowed Sakurai/Nintendo to realize all kinds of fighters that were not practical/possible for numerous reasons 2 years ago.

That certainly doesn't mean they'll all fit under those parameters, though.

Like I’m curious why WAS Hayabusa in a **** ton of fake leaks

is it cuz he’s popular in smash spec? Literal actual leak bait that people disregarded as such cuz OMFG ITS HAYABUSA? Both????

Probably cause people thought he was comparatively likely so they saw it as a safer bet to make the leak look legit.

 

[SharkLord]

Like I’m curious why WAS Hayabusa in a **** ton of fake leaks

is it cuz he’s popular in smash spec? Literal actual leak bait that people disregarded as such cuz OMFG ITS HAYABUSA? Both????

I sure don’t remember him being this popular in 4 that’s for sure

He was just popular, yeah. Popular characters catch on easier and fool more people into believing the leaks because it's something they think is possible. The same thing's happened with Crash, with him being plastered all over various supposed leaks in an attempt to boost credibility.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Like I’m curious why WAS Hayabusa in a **** ton of fake leaks

is it cuz he’s popular in smash spec? Literal actual leak bait that people disregarded as such cuz OMFG ITS HAYABUSA? Both????

In an odd way Hayabusa was sort of an ideal hypothetical, especially for rumors/leaks. He's not so prominent that he can be said to be a wish fulfillment fighter like a Sora, but nor is he so obscure that he could be dismissed out of hand for not being famous enough. He has a Nintendo history while still having contemporary games, while his company has worked with first party franchises. His likely fighting style isn't too out there, but isn't too heavily repped in Smash already either. Especially after a Terry he feels like the kind of fighter that could easily be negotiated for while still getting some big headlines for appearing.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Like I’m curious why WAS Hayabusa in a **** ton of fake leaks

is it cuz he’s popular in smash spec? Literal actual leak bait that people disregarded as such cuz OMFG ITS HAYABUSA? Both????

My personal guess is that there were legit rumblings that were misunderstood or taken out of context. Maybe something like talking with Koei Tecmo about using cutscenes for Byleth's trailer which got misconstrued as a Koei Tecmo character. He didn't get a lot of ground until a couple leakers with spotty, but sometimes correct track records mentioned him. After that probably bandwagoning to make fake leaks look good.

 

[Dinoman96]

Yeah Ryu was just one of those characters people latched onto because they felt he "made sense". Similar to stuff like Travis, or Monster Hunter, or even Crash.

 

[CannonStreak]

Yeah Ryu was just one of those characters people latched onto because they felt he "made sense". Similar to stuff like Travis, or Monster Hunter, or even Crash.

Or in other words, "felt safe", may I add.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Like I’m curious why WAS Hayabusa in a **** ton of fake leaks

is it cuz he’s popular in smash spec? Literal actual leak bait that people disregarded as such cuz OMFG ITS HAYABUSA? Both????

I sure don’t remember him being this popular in 4 that’s for sure

He wasn’t, trust me and it bummed me out, and judging from this cycle he just seems like a “safe” pick. An NES Icon with a new collection coming out, Koei-Tecmo being super close with Nintendo, stuff like that. It’s odd though because this cycle has been HEAVILY centered around 3rd Party characters as a drastic shift from Smash 4 where it was mostly centered around first parties. K. Rool, Ridley, Isabelle, Isaac, Shulk, etc. hell the only popular 3rd Parties then were Mega Man and Pac-Man and people actively wanted Snake out.

This Smash cycle is NOTHING like last one. And I think that’s better. The gate keeping was pretty hardcore back then and rules were abundant. It’s nice to see such a dramatic shift thanks to the first Fighter’s Pass.

 

[Technomage]

Like I’m curious why WAS Hayabusa in a **** ton of fake leaks

is it cuz he’s popular in smash spec? Literal actual leak bait that people disregarded as such cuz OMFG ITS HAYABUSA? Both????

I sure don’t remember him being this popular in 4 that’s for sure

I'm pretty sure one of the reasons is because the guy's a Nintendo icon, and thus would fit quite well in Smash. That, and lotsa people (including me) thought he was pretty likely to get in, before Yasuda deconfirmed him.

 

[SharkLord]

My personal guess is that there were legit rumblings that were misunderstood or taken out of context. Maybe something like talking with Koei Tecmo about using cutscenes for Byleth's trailer which got misconstrued as a Koei Tecmo character. He didn't get a lot of ground until a couple leakers with spotty, but sometimes correct track records mentioned him. After that probably bandwagoning to make fake leaks look good.

Aside from Byleth's trailer, there's also the Spirits for AoC and P5S, and potentially the Assist Trophy for Yuri, depending on how far back the apparent rumblings were. KT's had a decent amount of minor content scattered throughout SSBU's lifecycle, so some misinterpretation isn't that far-fetched.

 

[Gnateb]

People talking about how no third party character could be free DLC got me thinking... That River City spirit event is weirder than ever.

Every time a third party has gotten a spirit event, they've had paid content later, except for Arc Sys. I doubt any third party company would allow free content to be in Smash.

I know Sol's role may be filled by MinMin for this pass, but a Mii costume perhaps?

 

[True Blue Warrior]

People talking about how no third party character could be free DLC got me thinking... That River City spirit event is weirder than ever.

Every time a third party has gotten a spirit event, they've had paid content later, except for Arc Sys. I doubt any third party company would allow free content to be in Smash.

I know Sol's role may be filled by MinMin for this pass, but a Mii costume perhaps?

What role? We can have two fighting game characters in the same pass like we had 3 JRPG guys in the last one (In before “ARMS isn’t a fighting game but a tech demo”).

 

[SharkLord]

People talking about how no third party character could be free DLC got me thinking... That River City spirit event is weirder than ever.

Every time a third party has gotten a spirit event, they've had paid content later, except for Arc Sys. I doubt any third party company would allow free content to be in Smash.

I know Sol's role may be filled by MinMin for this pass, but a Mii costume perhaps?

I mean

Stretchy arm person from 3D fighter

Unga bunga sword brawler person from 2D fighting game

When we have so many JRPG characters between passes I'm sure Min Min and Sol aren't mutually exclusive

 

[Gnateb]

I mean

Stretchy arm person from 3D fighter

Unga bunga sword brawler person from 2D fighting game

When we have so many JRPG characters between passes I'm sure Min Min and Sol aren't mutually exclusive

Yes you're probably right, it's just the last time I brought up how Sol's role wasn't filled somebody said "uh MinMin?".

 

[SneakyLink]

The problem with using spirit events as a base for what’s coming or not coming is that for all we know the event could be because the devs wanted to have something related to the franchise in Smash. Could also apply to certain tourneys (honestly thought we would get a Fire Emblem one after Byleth)

Unrelated, Konami announced they won’t be at E3.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

People talking about how no third party character could be free DLC got me thinking... That River City spirit event is weirder than ever.

Every time a third party has gotten a spirit event, they've had paid content later, except for Arc Sys. I doubt any third party company would allow free content to be in Smash.

I know Sol's role may be filled by MinMin for this pass, but a Mii costume perhaps?

Didn’t Sol’s JP VO retweet I think the Steve announcement? Or what would be Sephiroth’s reveal?

 

[Gnateb]

The problem with using spirit events as a base for what’s coming or not coming is that for all we know the event could be because the devs wanted to have something related to the franchise in Smash besides we still don’t have a Undertale event. Could also apply to certain tourneys (honestly thought we would get a Fire Emblem one after Byleth)

Unrelated, Konami won’t be at E3.

Well sure, but the precedent is that they get paid content later. Undertale having a costume but not having a spirit event is a little weird, but since it's not the other way around, it doesn't pertain too much to this

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Sol Badguy would both make sense at E3 and fit the pattern of “Smash doesn’t end on an EPIC note”.

 

[Gazorpazorpfield]

To play Devil's Advocate for this "no-double-dipping-for-third-parties" debate, while it sounds like an arbitrary rule, it could be that Nintendo sees a Smash character as a way to strengthen relations with various publishers. With this in mind, it makes more sense to try and cover as much ground as possible. Since we know it's Nintendo calling the shots, IMO there is a realistic chance they say "we have Microsoft and Square Enix checked off already, let's diversify".

Besides, Microsoft characters have a language barrier and an ostensibly greedy company to make negotiations harder, while Square themselves are reputed for charging a pretty penny for their IP. I know some like Maximilian Dood have speculated that a Sephiroth DLC agreement was their way of holding Cloud hostage from Nintendo. All this to say, there are legit arguments against a second MS or SE character in this pass.

 

[Dinoman96]

To play Devil's Advocate for this "no-double-dipping-for-third-parties" debate, while it sounds like an arbitrary rule, it could be that Nintendo sees a Smash character as a way to strengthen relations with various publishers. With this in mind, it makes more sense to try and cover as much ground as possible. Since we know it's Nintendo calling the shots, IMO there is a realistic chance they say "we have Microsoft and Square Enix checked off already, let's diversify".

Besides, Microsoft characters have a language barrier and an ostensibly greedy company to make negotiations harder, while Square themselves are reputed for charging a pretty penny for their IP. I know some like Maximilian Dood have speculated that a Sephiroth DLC agreement was their way of holding Cloud hostage from Nintendo. All this to say, there are legit arguments against a second MS or SE character in this pass.

What exactly makes Microsoft a "ostensibly greedy company" in this case?

 

[Deleted member]

Like I’m curious why WAS Hayabusa in a **** ton of fake leaks

is it cuz he’s popular in smash spec? Literal actual leak bait that people disregarded as such cuz OMFG ITS HAYABUSA? Both????

I sure don’t remember him being this popular in 4 that’s for sure

Somebody put the pieces together around Nintendo and Koei-Tecmo and decided to add Hayabusa to a 4chan post because Ninja Gaiden was an NES series. Eventually, people also caught on to the pieces and see him as an incredibly likely character. The same could be said about Doom Slayer too even when people doubt about MUH VIOLENCE and all.

I doubt leakbait has anything to do with why he's brought up so much (though if it was it'd imply a different KT character would be in Smash so I wouldn't have too much of a problem with it). It just sounds a lot more plausible because of the reasonings for adding him have a lot of validity to it than most.

 

[N3ON]

Unrelated, Konami won’t be at E3.

Well sure, but the precedent is that they get paid content later. Undertale having a costume but not having a spirit event is a little weird, but since it's not the other way around, it doesn't pertain too much to this

I don't know why people keep singling out Undertale, there are a lot of series that have a costume but don't have a spirit event. Very few have both. I think people are leaning too hard on what happened with Cuphead.

 

[Gnateb]

I don't know why people keep singling out Undertale, there are a lot of series that have a costume but don't have a spirit event. Very few have both. I think people are leaning too hard on what happened with Cuphead.

It's probably because they're both Indie.

To be fair, though, Sakurai appeared to have a closer business relationship with Fox than MDHR, and Undertale sprites seem as easy to spirit-ify as Mother ones. The apparent ease of making a spirit event makes Undertale seem more suspicious to some. Also, UT is huge in Japan.

Personally, I'd love Undertale spirits.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Unrelated, Konami announced they won’t be at E3.

Those rumors died before they even existed...

 

[Gazorpazorpfield]

What exactly makes Microsoft a "ostensibly greedy company" in this case?

Being Microsoft was pretty much my reason. Maybe Phil Spencer sees the value in making their characters accessible to Nintendo for the promotional benefit of Smash, but it's hard for me to see a tech juggernaut like them leaving money on the table in any deal.

 

[Gnateb]

Me when Bandai Namco and SEGA aren't actually going to be at E3:

 

[Pillow]

To play Devil's Advocate for this "no-double-dipping-for-third-parties" debate, while it sounds like an arbitrary rule, it could be that Nintendo sees a Smash character as a way to strengthen relations with various publishers. With this in mind, it makes more sense to try and cover as much ground as possible. Since we know it's Nintendo calling the shots, IMO there is a realistic chance they say "we have Microsoft and Square Enix checked off already, let's diversify".

Besides, Microsoft characters have a language barrier and an ostensibly greedy company to make negotiations harder, while Square themselves are reputed for charging a pretty penny for their IP. I know some like Maximilian Dood have speculated that a Sephiroth DLC agreement was their way of holding Cloud hostage from Nintendo. All this to say, there are legit arguments against a second MS or SE character in this pass.

SE is notoriously protective of IP, but Nintendo has the pockets to afford it. And I'm not really unsure what you mean when you say there's a language barrier for Microsoft characters.

The only "hurdle" for SE and Microsoft characters (I'm using the plural here but really it's just Master Chief) is that there's no precedent for a company showing up more than once per pass. But really, there's not much precedence for anything . You can't reasonably form a pattern based off what's appeared over 1.5 character passes.

Me when Bandai Namco and SEGA aren't actually going to be at E3:

Parent company showing up at E3 doesn't really matter as far as a Smash reveal is concerned. The only thing that matters is Nintendo showing up.

 

[N3ON]

It's probably because they're both Indie.

To be fair, though, Sakurai appeared to have a closer business relationship with Fox than MDHR, and Undertale sprites seem as easy to spirit-ify as Mother ones. The apparent ease of making a spirit event makes Undertale seem more suspicious to some.

Personally, I'd love Undertale spirits.

But I think just because something making sense, which Undertale spirits do, it's still a far cry from something that should be expected to happen. Spirit events, when not tied to promotion, have been so intermittent and random that I don't think it makes sense to expect any specific ones. Even the sensible ones.

I mean, we got Resident Evil, Kunio, Cuphead and Warframe. You might as well be throwing darts at a board with the name of every somewhat relevant gaming series.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Me when Bandai Namco and SEGA aren't actually going to be at E3:

Ehh don't worry they usually unveil their upcoming hot games at one of the big three conferences, mostly Microsoft's surprisingly. With Sony gone and Nintendo......being Nintendo, I'd have my eyes on Microsoft for the upcoming E3. Rumors are they have a treasure of goodies planned to be revealed at this E3 and it's surely gonna be exciting.

 

[Gnateb]

Parent company showing up at E3 doesn't really matter as far as a Smash reveal is concerned. The only thing that matters is Nintendo showing up.

I know I know... I was just hoping for Elden Ring and Sonic news, that's all...

FromSoft stuff usually shows stuff at XBox events though, and Bamco might have their own event in the works, so I have hope

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Sol Badguy would both make sense at E3 and fit the pattern of “Smash doesn’t end on an EPIC note”.

Don't know what it is but Sol to me feels he's between in terms of hype and excitement. Don't know what it is honestly.

 

[Louie G.]

To play Devil's Advocate for this "no-double-dipping-for-third-parties" debate, while it sounds like an arbitrary rule, it could be that Nintendo sees a Smash character as a way to strengthen relations with various publishers. With this in mind, it makes more sense to try and cover as much ground as possible. Since we know it's Nintendo calling the shots, IMO there is a realistic chance they say "we have Microsoft and Square Enix checked off already, let's diversify".

I keep seeing people say this but I really don't believe this logic holds up anymore. I'd agree with this statement in FP1, when Nintendo did cast a wide net and gather a bunch of new properties and companies to introduce to Smash. FP1 feels very much like a pass structured to expand on the crossover element of Smash, etc etc. Now it feels like an outdated mentality.

FP2 is different. We have two Nintendo characters, one Square Enix character and one Microsoft character - the latter two from companies that already received content in FP1 as is. Two of these characters are from series that already have characters on the roster, one of them from a series that already had content in the game. Out of these picks, Steve is the only one who truly feels like he's covering any sort of new ground (in that respect, at least). I'm not sure what the motto behind FP2 is, but it's definitely different than it was in FP1. At this point in FP1, we had two brand new companies and whatever Atlus is, all from new series.

DLC is a great way to strengthen those relations, but if they truly cared about utilizing FP2 to do this, where's the Koei Tecmo character? Or any other new companies? Why are Capcom / Namco / Konami pretty much out of the picture (assuming Mii costumes are as damning as we assume they are) as some other close partners with no new characters as DLC? In that case, why even go for SE and Microsoft again in the first place? Because by that logic, we're already double-dipping instead of covering that new ground. It's not like FP2 is just suddenly a clean slate, it's technically a continuation.

It just does not seem like Nintendo's priority at the moment at all and I'm unsure where people are getting the idea that FP2 reflects this mentality.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Given E3 is right around Sonic's 30th anniversary I'd be surprised if Sega didn't at least show a logo of the next game in some company's presentation. Especially when we're coming up to on of the longest gaps between console title releases.

 

[N3ON]

You know things like the Nintendo E3 Direct aren't actually technically part of E3. It's not run under the ESA. It's just timed around the event because it reflects what will be on the showfloor (not applicable this year) and in the Treehouse stream, which are parts of E3.

So those companies could still be in the Nintendo presentation. Or the Microsoft one, if they're doing something akin to Nintendo.