Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[SpectreJordan]

I agree in theory that a western character could show up whenever. I just think, being still in the nascent stages of western characters on the roster, if they choose another, they're going to choose from among the top of the heap, whether in terms of popularity or prevalence. That's what typically happens. The first Nintendo characters were the apex of the company. The first third-parties were among the biggest names in gaming.

I just don't think they would go for some mid-tier western character, were we to get a western character. I mean, unless they were the most popular Smash request, but we don't really have another Banjo on our hands. I think it would be someone very big, partly due to the trend of descending inclusions, and partly due to the increased effort expended. Someone like Chief, or Crash or Lara Croft (though her situation is mixed... given they can now go through Square). And to that end, all of those characters make sense to be a big E3 megaton.

We're just not at the point yet where smaller but notable western names, like, idk, like Big Daddy seem particularly likely. We're still at the top.

So I agree that in theory, a western character doesn't need to be tethered to a western event like E3. I just think any character they would choose would be E3 material. And given there are only two characters left, and at least one will show up at E3, it's sort of a case of putting two and two together here. If there is still another western character in the cards, ofc.

You hit the nail on the head. We went through 6 huge third party characters before we got one that was small scale.

I imagine it’ll be a while before we see some smaller western characters, especially since we’ll still be seeing Japanese 3rd parties mixed in with western ones.

The only exception I could see is an Undertale character. But that’s debatable on whether that’d count as a smaller inclusion or a big one.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Still banking on Master Chief for the Western rep. I'm expecting them to really surprise us there.

 

[SharkLord]

Still banking on Master Chief for the Western rep. I'm expecting them to really surprise us there.

Master Chief... Doesn't seem like that much of a surprise anymore, honestly. It feels like they're one of the speculation darlings at this point, approaching Crash's level. If we actually got MC I feel like half of everyone would be shouting "I CALLED IT!"

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Another speculative video by ours truly.

Enjoy.

 

[Lamperouge]

I still believe the character revealed at E3 is going to be relatively "tame" and/or niche in comparison to the heavy hitters that most seem to be predicting right now. As for who said character ends up being, I honestly couldn't tell you; I just don't think it's going to be someone like Crash or Master Chief.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Another speculative video by ours truly.

Enjoy.

Any mention of Octoling being that bonus fighter is a plus in my book

Veemo

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Still banking on Master Chief for the Western rep. I'm expecting them to really surprise us there.

I'll admit I would be a bit surprised by MC if only because he'd be a character breaking or bending a lot of typical expectations for DLC (a second character from a third party in the same pass, limited Japanese appeal, & even less history on Nintendo than the likes of Joker).

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Any mention of Octoling being that bonus fighter is a plus in my book

Veemo

In all honestly, I really think Octoling is a character that's really slept on and could actually see ending the DLC cycle for Ultimate.

Began with Inkling. Ends with Octoling.

Woomy! Veemo!

 

[Guynamednelson]

I still believe the character revealed at E3 is going to be relatively "tame" and/or niche in comparison to the heavy hitters that most seem to be predicting right now. As for who said character ends up being, I honestly couldn't tell you; I just don't think it's going to be someone like Crash or Master Chief.

It kind of feels like E3 is just being used as an excuse to keep exclusively focusing only on heavy hitters. We really should remember that one of the "E3 heavy hitters" used as an example of why the E3 reveal has to be big was a certain bear and bird who many considered out of the running because their games sold way worse than Minecraft has.

 

[Lamperouge]

I have my doubts about the Octolings as a viable choice considering all the Splatoon costumes we've received through DLC so far.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I have my doubts about the Octolings as a viable choice considering all the Splatoon costumes we've received through DLC so far.

Maybe they're building up to Octoling(s)?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I have my doubts about the Octolings as a viable choice considering all the Splatoon costumes we've received through DLC so far.

It was just Callie and Marie, and they seem to be part of an “Assist Trophies to Costumes” trend like with Bomberman and Akira Yuki (even tho the latter returned from 4)

 

[SharkLord]

Something I feel worth noting is that whenever the topic of double-dipping third-parties come up, it seems like it's about Master Chief and Master Chief alone. Yeah, he's the most notable Microsoft rep, but Square Enix just disappears from the discussion beyond Lara's name popping up occasionally. I feel like the embracing of the double-dipping idea is largely because people want to talk about Master Chief while staying within the generally-accepted boundaries.

Maybe they're building up to Octoling(s)?

That's not really how the cycle's gone so far. We didn't get any Dragon Quest content before Hero, or any Three Houses content before Byleth, or any Minecraft content before Steve, etc. All the content has either been in the base game or with the DLC fighter, never in between.

It was just Callie and Marie, and they seem to be part of an “Assist Trophies to Costumes” trend like with Bomberman and Akira Yuki (even tho the latter returned from 4)

It doesn't change the fact that it's still Splatoon. If there was a Splatoon content pack, all the Splatoon content in the pass would likely be timed around that date. The fact that it's just tossed in wherever suggests that there isn't a Splatoon pack to time it around in the first place.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Another speculative video by ours truly.

Enjoy.

That's a lot of characters on one thumbnail...

Also, this is a Sandbag discussion now.

 

[Gnateb]

Speculation channels can be cool, but like you all were talking about earlier, they tend to only discuss really safe bets/who is talked about the most.

 

[GolisoPower]

Anybody share this before? Because this is something interesting that I've never noticed before. This was posted before Pyra and Mythra were released, and when they were it lined up with what this video presents.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Something I feel worth noting is that whenever the topic of double-dipping third-parties come up, it seems like it's about Master Chief and Master Chief alone. Yeah, he's the most notable Microsoft rep, but Square Enix just disappears from the discussion beyond Lara's name popping up occasionally. I feel like the embracing of the double-dipping idea is largely because people want to talk about Master Chief while staying within the generally-accepted boundaries.

I will say I've seen 2B bandied about as a possible choice for the second pass, though quite frankly I hold the same doubts about her as I do with MC and largely for the same reasons, with her mass appeal in Japan being the one advantage she has over him.

 

[N3ON]

Master Chief... Doesn't seem like that much of a surprise anymore, honestly. It feels like they're one of the speculation darlings at this point, approaching Crash's level. If we actually got MC I feel like half of everyone would be shouting "I CALLED IT!"

I think we would think so. I think people who think far less about the series than we do would be blown away by Mr. Xbox showing up in Smash.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Anybody share this before? Because this is something interesting that I've never noticed before.

As with other theories, this one is bound to eventually break and that'll be when May is finished.

 

[SharkLord]

Y'know, I remember a comment a while back that described our situation pretty well: We have dueling patterns, with big reveals at E3 and a more low-key ending. It's not wrong; There's disagreements on if there's gonna be someone big or not, not helped by the fact that we've only had one cycle that showed up at E3 twice, the base game of Smash 4, and we've never had such an occurrence with the DLC.

Personally, I'm expecting a big character and a more low key-one, but I dunno exactly how big or small they'd be. Either way, just about everyone has left me satisfied anyways, so I'm not that worried about putting my bets on any one thing. If I'm right, hooray, if I'm wrong I'll probably be happy regardless.

I will say I've seen 2B bandied about as a possible choice for the second pass, though quite frankly I hold the same doubts about her as I do with MC and largely for the same reasons, with her mass appeal in Japan being the one advantage she has over him.

We must be looking at different places. I've barely seen 2B mentioned around here, and this is more or less the only Smash site I check regularly so I wouldn't know what people are saying elsewhere.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

If E3 were being held in May and not June I'd say he'd probably be dead on the money for the final two releases.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Speculation channels can be cool, but like you all were talking about earlier, they tend to only discuss really safe bets/who is talked about the most.

I'm gonna fix this problem the one way I know how:

ESRB rates Ni no Kuni II: Revenant Kingdom Prince’s Edition for Switch https://t.co/BFoFjCSpTa pic.twitter.com/MCXjSRShK1

— Gematsu (@gematsu) April 30, 2021

Ni No Kuni in Smash.

Discuss.

 

[Gnateb]

The LeakyPandy "info" about DS on Switch became slightly more believable, since they elaborated to say DS2 alone will be ported to Switch. DS3 probably couldn't run natively without a serious downgrade. Their track record is pretty spotty, for sure, but I think that a DS2 port will happen one day regardless of "leaks". Then maybe another game will be compatible with this plastic Solaire I have in my drawer.

Joe Hisaishi music in Smash though...

 

[Gengar84]

Something I feel worth noting is that whenever the topic of double-dipping third-parties come up, it seems like it's about Master Chief and Master Chief alone. Yeah, he's the most notable Microsoft rep, but Square Enix just disappears from the discussion beyond Lara's name popping up occasionally. I feel like the embracing of the double-dipping idea is largely because people want to talk about Master Chief while staying within the generally-accepted boundaries.

That's not really how the cycle's gone so far. We didn't get any Dragon Quest content before Hero, or any Three Houses content before Byleth, or any Minecraft content before Steve, etc. All the content has either been in the base game or with the DLC fighter, never in between.

It doesn't change the fact that it's still Splatoon. If there was a Splatoon content pack, all the Splatoon content in the pass would likely be timed around that date. The fact that it's just tossed in wherever suggests that there isn't a Splatoon pack to time it around in the first place.

I’m sorry I don’t bring up Battletoads an Magus enough apparently. I’ll try to be better about that in the future .

 

[SKX31]

Well, I'm not sure exactly how much Amiibo production is related to Smash specifically (I'm just very unfamiliar with Amiibos in general), I just feel like Dark Souls is the type of series that "makes sense" in Smash as it's been one of the most prolific series to emerge within the last decade of gaming. My only qualms about DS is that "Chosen Undead" sounds kinda silly as a character name, but so does "Hero" and that the fighting style of tumble around, stab and drink potion, doesn't exactly make for an exciting fighting game character but Sakurai made a literal plant work out.

I really can't imagine the Chosen Undead being a particularly engaging character for Smash when a lot of their kit would either be broken or just goofy. If their rolls got more invul to them or had some mechanic to 'perfect roll' that'd make roll spam just that more annoying when fighting them. Any character with good healing potential is always infuriating in a fighting game. Hero's is at least limited uses per stock and Wii-Fit's is miniscule (As is Wario/Kirby's).

Characters like Elena in SF had their heal locked behind a super/ultra but the heal was pretty good and charged fairly quick. Just erasing opponents progress is a bad option for fighting games. So if Chosen Undead had Estus (Even if limited use per stock Estus) it would have to heal very small amounts or be so ungodly slow that using it is rarely an option (And thus making a move in their kit kinda useless.

I imagine any special mechanics for Chosen Undead would be tied to parry instead of roll. And if Estus was a thing, I do think it would be a slow move that would be mostly useful after taking a stock. It is pretty slow in Dark Souls, so there would be precedent there. Another thing I could see happening if estus exists would be to make Chosen Undead intentionally weakish to balance it out: the guy can survive forever, but isn't great at taking you out either. Idk, just a possibility.

Now there are several defense-focused characters already in the game ( , , , one can certainly argue ), so Chosen Undead being primarily defensive / evasive might not be that much of an issue. That said:

Hero might be the best primary comparision to Chosen Undead. While I haven't played DS that much, the Estus sounds a lot like a certain Heal (which can be used twice per stock and +1 per each KO). Can Hero be annoying to fight against? Yes, partly because a lot of his gameplan comes down to "I'mma knock yall back so I can look up my menu lol". Still, there's a point to be made that Hero's not considered so annoying to play against that he's ban-worthy (if anything, there's been a lot of complaints around Min Min, and there's no talk about banning her). Also. while his RNG was and continues to be a rather controversial subject, it's also worth noting that most of his spells are rather consistent (can only be fired horizontally) and his buffs have animations that he can be hit out of. Hero also has a really difficult time once he's hit - CU might share that weakness due to him having a similar profile to Hero.

I do believe that CU would share quite a lot of Hero's traits, but there are a few key differences worth highlighting;

• A parry mechanic might not only be more engaging than a roll mechanic, but also encouraging more aggressive play out of shield. It's worth remembering that Sakurai and co. outright introduced a roll / spotdodge spam penalty intended to cut down on roll spam. Not everyone heeded that (just look at a lot of Quickplay games), but the message was loud and clear.
• While CU would attack rather slowly - it's worth remembering that Hero does too. However, CU might not have the sheer explosive power offered by the Crits (one way Sakurai and co. covered the extremely sluggish frame data Hero "enjoys") nor relatively easy access to Oomph / Psyche Up (or even Acceleratle). Any buffs CU enjoys might have a slower activation time than Hero's "Choose spell, ACTIVATE!"...
• But that's where CU's presumed primary strengths come into the fore. Not just being able to withstand a lot, but also being able to stick around whether we're talking several of CU's moves having Armor or something else like the Armor providing damage resistance. While the Armor might not be that much (otherwise the CU would rely a lot on Armor-ing through moves like and , and I get the impression that would be completely counter to DS) any small bit of Armor can be helpful during a stock / a match (assuming no early gimps).
• Other defensive characters like those mentioned above - Rosa, Rool, Hero, Min Min - don't have a lot of long combos or anything like that. But they're not built around it, and I'd imagine CU would be much the same. He'd not need long combo strings or anything like that. Grinding, parrying and getting consistent 20-30 % might be enough, and he'd only need 3/4 to 6 of those interactions to get someone in high % - which is KO range even with relatively weak attacks.

If we're talking about a Western/West-appeal rep, I'm still leaning towards LoL. Big just about everywhere, and it's owned by Riot, who is owned by Tencent (Or at least, Tencent has a 100% stake in 'em), and Tencent has been fairly close to Nintendo as of late (Distributing Switches in China, Pokemon Unite, CN-exclusive Ring Fit Direct). Though, as SKX31 has mentioned before, it's a bit risky because we're not sure if the relationship started up early enough to matter for FP2.

Which is, as I've noted previously, really tight. The first "Switch getting an official release in China" notices were in November 2018 when Nintendo and Tencent filed a series of trademarks (they would unveil the plan in April 2019), and Nintendo revamped the iQue website (Nintendo's Chinese subsidiary nowadays) in March 2018. Tencent published its first Switch game in 2017 (Arena of Valor, Tencent's mobile LoL), and that's when talks presumably started.

That might be enough time for the implied late 2019 deadline, but it's again tight.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I still believe the character revealed at E3 is going to be relatively "tame" and/or niche in comparison to the heavy hitters that most seem to be predicting right now. As for who said character ends up being, I honestly couldn't tell you; I just don't think it's going to be someone like Crash or Master Chief.

Well then everyone, we are going to get Sol Badguy and Lloyd Irving as our last two characters and you will like it. Get ready for the smell of the game or something.

 

[Technomage]

I’m sorry I don’t bring up Battletoads an Magus enough apparently. I’ll try to be better about that in the future .

That's okay; I already brought up Battletoads earlier today.

 

[N3ON]

2B used to be discussed more but after the info about Yoko Taro and Sakurai only meeting fairly recently and people being skeptical on CERO grounds (the former reason being sensible imo, the latter... not so much) conversation around her dried up a while back. And since then we got Sephiroth, who also doesn't help inspire confidence in her appearing.

I also don't recall her ever being part of some annoying leak that wouldn't die.

Anyway, she used to be a bigger part of the conversation.

 

[Gengar84]

That's okay; I already brought up Battletoads earlier today.

Technically I did when I was talking about Brawl Captain Falcon mods but I get it lol.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

I'm gonna fix this problem the one way I know how:

Ni No Kuni in Smash.

Discuss.

It would be interesting for sure (imagine gun-wielding president of the USA), but I do have concerns about the artstyle mixing with that of Smash. Ghibli style characters with gradient shading seems like a strange mix, but I'm sure they could pull it off. They've done it with every other cel-shaded character.

 

[cothero]

The thing is, people expectations on the last two fighters (or at least for one of them) are way too high cosidering how thing are going. Master Chief and Crash are the names i heard more. I wouldn't be surprised if that "Phantasy Star" leak end up being true, with Hayabusa and a PS character being the last two fighters, for example. It wouldn't please everyone, but excluding Steve, this pass seem way less focused in bigger names and more focused in implementing cheaper characters from already existing franchises that the smash team wanted to put on the base game - and that trend started not at FP2, but on the last character of the FP1 - Byleth.

Consider whatever we got from now on as a bonus, so i personally don't expect huge gaming characters like most people are expecting - and i think many will be disappointed.

Is nice to speculate and that's why we're here, but hype responsibly.

 

[Technomage]

Technically I did when I was talking about Brawl Captain Falcon mods but I get it lol.

Ah, I totally forgot about that. Oh well...

It would be interesting for sure (imagine gun-wielding president of the USA), but I do have concerns about the artstyle mixing with that of Smash. Ghibli style characters with gradient shading seems like a strange mix, but I'm sure they could pull it off. They've done it with every other cel-shaded character.

To be honest, I don't think clashing art styles would be that immersion-breaking or problematic, since all these characters come from different dimensions (it'd kinda make sense for them to have different art styles).

 

[Michael the Spikester]

PS character

That's never happening. As if Sony is willing to particulate with any gaming company.

 

[Technomage]

That's never happening. As if Sony is willing to particulate with any gaming company.

You sure that person didn't mean Phantasy Star (that person did spell it out in the same comment)?

 

[cothero]

That's never happening. As if Sony is willing to particulate with any gaming company.

PS = Phatasy Star.

 

[SharkLord]

Which is, as I've noted previously, really tight. The first "Switch getting an official release in China" notices were in November 2018 when Nintendo and Tencent filed a series of trademarks (they would unveil the plan in April 2019), and Nintendo revamped the iQue website (Nintendo's Chinese subsidiary nowadays) in March 2018. Tencent published its first Switch game in 2017 (Arena of Valor, Tencent's mobile LoL), and that's when talks presumably started.

That might be enough time for the implied late 2019 deadline, but it's again tight.

I was going to mention that a year or two sounds like a decent enough amount of time, but then I remembered this is in the context of setting up a working relationship alongside negotiating for a potential character, plus whatever talks would also need to be had with Riot Games. So yes, that makes it a lot tighter than if Nintendo just went to someone they're familiar with.

I suppose it kinda depends on how set Nintendo was on for LoL in Smash. If this was their intent from the beginning, then I could see them trying to squeeze in an LoL character during the talks alongside the Chinese Switch distribution. When you put it that way, it would seem like a major upside for Nintendo to have contact with Tencent. If it's not part of the original gameplan, though, then yeah. Kind of a risky prediction.

 

[Dinoman96]

Some people are still clinging onto Hayabusa, huh...

 

[N3ON]

That Phantasy Star leak also said Grezzo was gonna have a Zelda title this year, but they just finished Miitopia.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

PS = Phatasy Star.

Ah poop, my bad.

 

[cothero]

That Phantasy Star leak also said Grezzo was gonna have a Zelda title this year, but they just finished Miitopia.

I just used the PS leak as an example, i personally don't think it's true.