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DGames Summer Mafia Bash - Day 2 Begins. Deadline Day 2 begins - Deadline 8:00 A.M. CST Monday 6/24
- Thread starter #HBC | Red Ryu
- Start date
Tbh I should have done this Doop deep dive much earlier. I didn't realize just how ****ing inconsistent and weird he was being, instead focusing too hard on the first interaction with Marshy.
Quoting some of the weirdness, especially his behavior relating to Rockin and Pythag.
The three players that Doop went after were Pythag, Rockin, and Ran in that order. Ran was merely because his and Tom's interactions were a big focus early on, and it got dropped.
Pythag was consistently pushed by Doop, even after the wagon ran out of steam and the JTB wagon had begun to build. If this was just deflection, Doop could have begun shifting to JTB. In addition, Pythag was on the tail end of that stinky lynch yesterday.
Rockin, however, was being pushed as a housecleaning lynch. Which is slimy (and poor sportsmanship imo) as ****, but I didn't push that yesterday since it seemed like it got dropped early. But with Doop, it seems like he was a-ok with justifying it as a housecleaning lynch, then he backed off with an "oops I misunderstood" that rang a bit hollow.
In addition with Rockin, I have a scum read on Utopian. The only wagon Utopian didn't hop on was Rockin, while Doop, confirmed scum, hopped on Rockin with limpy reasoning.
My current guess is Doop + Utopian + Rockin scum team, with a fair bit of coordination going on behind the scenes to bus separately. I also would like to add Pythag to that list, but I want to deep dive into Pythag and see if there's similar coordination Re: Rockin.
Current lynch pool for me is Utopian, Pythag, Rockin in that order. Pythag over Rockin because my only reason for Rockin is connections to Utopian and Doop. Will reread Pythag soon, with less quotes being reposted. I felt the need to do so with Doop since he flipped scum.
Quoting some of the weirdness, especially his behavior relating to Rockin and Pythag.
The three players that Doop went after were Pythag, Rockin, and Ran in that order. Ran was merely because his and Tom's interactions were a big focus early on, and it got dropped.
Pythag was consistently pushed by Doop, even after the wagon ran out of steam and the JTB wagon had begun to build. If this was just deflection, Doop could have begun shifting to JTB. In addition, Pythag was on the tail end of that stinky lynch yesterday.
Rockin, however, was being pushed as a housecleaning lynch. Which is slimy (and poor sportsmanship imo) as ****, but I didn't push that yesterday since it seemed like it got dropped early. But with Doop, it seems like he was a-ok with justifying it as a housecleaning lynch, then he backed off with an "oops I misunderstood" that rang a bit hollow.
In addition with Rockin, I have a scum read on Utopian. The only wagon Utopian didn't hop on was Rockin, while Doop, confirmed scum, hopped on Rockin with limpy reasoning.
My current guess is Doop + Utopian + Rockin scum team, with a fair bit of coordination going on behind the scenes to bus separately. I also would like to add Pythag to that list, but I want to deep dive into Pythag and see if there's similar coordination Re: Rockin.
Current lynch pool for me is Utopian, Pythag, Rockin in that order. Pythag over Rockin because my only reason for Rockin is connections to Utopian and Doop. Will reread Pythag soon, with less quotes being reposted. I felt the need to do so with Doop since he flipped scum.
^ This is literally why I have Ryker as town read for now as well. At minimum he's spurring activity and actively scum hunting while leaving a paper trail. If he's scum, then he's helping town for now while giving himself rope to hang himself later.
Same read on Tom.
hm kinda agree but also kinda disagree, i did like his read list and they lined up well enough with mine (though i noted that it seemed like a relatively safe list. save for like kary everyone on his can go list was ppl that town was already considering lynching). and his notes were super comprehensive and helpful, but very summary-y
but i also got the sense that it wasn't fully clear how his notes led to his reads and i was hoping to get more direct observations / analysis from him but unfortunately the day ended to fast
anyway ill be back later this afternoon, have a bunch of morning meetings
but i also got the sense that it wasn't fully clear how his notes led to his reads and i was hoping to get more direct observations / analysis from him but unfortunately the day ended to fast
anyway ill be back later this afternoon, have a bunch of morning meetings
ninja'd but the post was in response to ryker
If ther is a fair amount of coordination going on behind the scenes, Rockin is not scum. This is a meta read. I will stand by it.
Rockin can be scum, but not for that.
Tom
#HBC | Gorf
sanity check me on this claim.
#HBC | Gorf
toastin walrus since 4/20 maaaan
im pretty sure he actually did answer that and spak replaced jexs
Reading Lore's post, I need to go back through Doop's interactions with Pythag apparently and decide what it looks like for Pythag's alignment.
How so? I don't understand this one, but I also haven't played a game with Rockin as scum iirc.If ther is a fair amount of coordination going on behind the scenes, Rockin is not scum. This is a meta read. I will stand by it.
Rockin can be scum, but not for that.
I should also note that I'm not a fan of using meta for things like this, but that's an ongoing debate in literally every single game of mafia that has existed. I just don't like meta being the base of reads, with how it can be faked or misleading.
ranmaru
Smash Legend
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#HBC | Nabe
Alright I want you posting today. Post or replace out.
I'll do the same on Pythag's end and state my conclusions. If I multi quote again, I'll stuff it under a spoiler.
Or would the normal note format of "#post number - notes" work fine?
Quick note on Poyzin:
The leap of difference between these two posts, along with the over reaction/correction in the latter vote, is weird as hell too.
The leap of difference between these two posts, along with the over reaction/correction in the latter vote, is weird as hell too.
#HBC | Gorf
toastin walrus since 4/20 maaaan
again, kinda ****ty because he literally reposted his vla notice that we all kinda forgot about when he got back. i think botd is okay here and, realistically, if we/mods had a problem with it then he said to replace him out. but the hammer kinda ****ed him over
#HBC | Kary
Fiend of Fire
I mean, I too would love to get some answers from Jexs, but I feel like asking them is redundant when they've been replaced by Spak
Whoops, you're right.
I do, but you're not going to like it.
I didn't think I was putting him at L-1, I miscounted the votes that were already on doop.
Rockin isn't active and proactive enough to be coordinating things. I can't think of a single game (regardless of alignment) where Rockin felt current in the game.
#HBC | Gorf
toastin walrus since 4/20 maaaan
yea later
D2? No, I haven't voted yet.Ok, we've got a vote on JTB, a vote on Lore, a vote on Spak, and two on UP.
I'm gonna want to consolidate some of those.
Pythag did you ever vote this phase?
Let me go re-examine the final few votes on Doop again.
Fair point, given Rockin's lack of activity this game. I'll go through Rockin's content too and see if anything is notable in my proposed web of connections. It could have been Doop and the others acting on their own, or acting according to a stated goal for D1 that they came up with at the start. "Hey I'll bus you if I can, but our other team mate(s) should ignore you." etc
ranmaru
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I don't believe I voted for him,
It's clear why scum would do it, but while I have a theory why you'd do it as town, I'm keeping it to myself for now while waiting to see your answer.
I didn't want to get into it because I didn't want to necessarily bring up emotions from the last game, but
it felt like because you got upset at Kary, Utopian was responding in kind.
It seemed like he was placing himself inbetween an argument between you too, and then also backing out (claiming he had no hurt feelings), but then seemed to clearly demonstrate hurt feelings by his responses to you.
It seemed weirdly emboldened, and I thought UP was trying to have his cake and eat it too. I wasn't sure if that was scummy behavior (I didn't like essentially what he was saying about votes, and the irony now of a hammer happening while he is away is hilarious in a way) but that post really did look bad to me.
especially when he would produce like 3 or 4 posts for even being hinted at being scummy. THAT seems less *teehee noobtown* behavior and more defensive scum.
It was just a big ball of weird.
OK, so first blush reactions to EoD wagon.
We've got 4 mafia, three now.
I think odds are VERY slim of all three having been on the Doop wagon. I also find it very unlikely they saw that Doop self vote and just said "**** it, let's nail him." This means I don't think the Doop self vote was planned. I imagine Doop, much like he said in thread, probably said he was gonna try and then, when he couldn't he just posted something here and in scum chat and bailed on the game. I don't think anyone here would be actively planning to bandwagon on a replace out vote for town credit. I think any sort of bus would've been opportunistic and based on who was online and it would also have to have been a conscious decision to kill one of their own.
I do not think we necessarily have a scummer on that Doop wagon. I think we almost certainly have at least one off of the FF wagon.
Of the players not on the Doop wagon:
I have straight skimmed the **** out of Lore's posts because they've been long as hell and have been focused on UP who I have had zero interest in pursuing. This slot is gonna end up ranking fairly high on my lynch list for this group out of PoE, but also because I generally don't like the direction the slot has been pushing (even if I like that there is direction). I really don't like this narrative about a scum team moving with concentrated effort, seems like a bad framing of players.
JTB has been a talking point for awhile and was beginning to activate when it happened, so if JTB flips scum, I think it unlikely that scum wanted that hammer and JeXs is probably town. I think SvS is very unlikely there. On his own though, Marshy getting shot over Tom or me is not a good look and he was an ok lynch choice yesterday.
Kev is dead.
I'm town.
Rockin gets the same bum rap on death WIFOM in addition to being a poor contributor. I don';t have much to say about Rockin and that's a negative for the slot.
Nabe wasn't voting because he was completely inactive.
Mac is my favorite of the people off the wagon. Much like how I've read Tom. He's been actively contributing and, even when I don't agree with where he's going, I like that he IS going. If this slot is scum, it will give us the rope with which to hang it.
That leaves FF, where all of my old grievances still stand. I intend to look through his stance on Doop if it worsens.
~~~~~~~
On the wagon, you have UP who was reading as a newbie I thought was town. Said newbie would have to have decided, immediately, to jump the wagon and bus Doop as soon as he self-voted. I find that one a pretty hard sell.
Tom is scary. Nothing in my analysis of his behavior yesterday has changed, but he is just a scary player. I don't much like him jumping on that wagon because I would like to think he would be more cognizant of possible consequences (day ending early when we're waiting on JTB and Nabe). He didn't seem so wagon thirsty before (that vote looked more like a me move), so this vote is something I consider a bad looking move from a good looking slot. He probably has the worst looking join to the wagon from the best looking position beforehand.
Pythag shows up, miscounts, and votes. I don't have a lot of context on what to expect from Pythag, but I dislike this vote a lot. It's probably my least favorite one on the wagon. The timing is yucky considering how little I feel I've had from the slot beforehand, consolidating onto a consensus lynch to avoid a replacement robs me of more from this slot and lets it coast into D2. Don't like it.
JeXs vote is more okay by me. A reckless vote, to be certain, but I don't think it was an intended hammer and ending a slot that's going to replace out just before replacing out yourself looks more natural to me than Pythag's vote.
~~~~~~~
Right now, I'll go on FF, Rockin, JTB, or Pythag.
Lore could quickly end up on that list.
#HBC | Gorf
please sell me on that before I go and look into it myself. I need another eye opening post. I liked your last one.
Vote Frozen Flame
We've got 4 mafia, three now.
I think odds are VERY slim of all three having been on the Doop wagon. I also find it very unlikely they saw that Doop self vote and just said "**** it, let's nail him." This means I don't think the Doop self vote was planned. I imagine Doop, much like he said in thread, probably said he was gonna try and then, when he couldn't he just posted something here and in scum chat and bailed on the game. I don't think anyone here would be actively planning to bandwagon on a replace out vote for town credit. I think any sort of bus would've been opportunistic and based on who was online and it would also have to have been a conscious decision to kill one of their own.
I do not think we necessarily have a scummer on that Doop wagon. I think we almost certainly have at least one off of the FF wagon.
Of the players not on the Doop wagon:
I have straight skimmed the **** out of Lore's posts because they've been long as hell and have been focused on UP who I have had zero interest in pursuing. This slot is gonna end up ranking fairly high on my lynch list for this group out of PoE, but also because I generally don't like the direction the slot has been pushing (even if I like that there is direction). I really don't like this narrative about a scum team moving with concentrated effort, seems like a bad framing of players.
JTB has been a talking point for awhile and was beginning to activate when it happened, so if JTB flips scum, I think it unlikely that scum wanted that hammer and JeXs is probably town. I think SvS is very unlikely there. On his own though, Marshy getting shot over Tom or me is not a good look and he was an ok lynch choice yesterday.
Kev is dead.
I'm town.
Rockin gets the same bum rap on death WIFOM in addition to being a poor contributor. I don';t have much to say about Rockin and that's a negative for the slot.
Nabe wasn't voting because he was completely inactive.
Mac is my favorite of the people off the wagon. Much like how I've read Tom. He's been actively contributing and, even when I don't agree with where he's going, I like that he IS going. If this slot is scum, it will give us the rope with which to hang it.
That leaves FF, where all of my old grievances still stand. I intend to look through his stance on Doop if it worsens.
~~~~~~~
On the wagon, you have UP who was reading as a newbie I thought was town. Said newbie would have to have decided, immediately, to jump the wagon and bus Doop as soon as he self-voted. I find that one a pretty hard sell.
Tom is scary. Nothing in my analysis of his behavior yesterday has changed, but he is just a scary player. I don't much like him jumping on that wagon because I would like to think he would be more cognizant of possible consequences (day ending early when we're waiting on JTB and Nabe). He didn't seem so wagon thirsty before (that vote looked more like a me move), so this vote is something I consider a bad looking move from a good looking slot. He probably has the worst looking join to the wagon from the best looking position beforehand.
Pythag shows up, miscounts, and votes. I don't have a lot of context on what to expect from Pythag, but I dislike this vote a lot. It's probably my least favorite one on the wagon. The timing is yucky considering how little I feel I've had from the slot beforehand, consolidating onto a consensus lynch to avoid a replacement robs me of more from this slot and lets it coast into D2. Don't like it.
JeXs vote is more okay by me. A reckless vote, to be certain, but I don't think it was an intended hammer and ending a slot that's going to replace out just before replacing out yourself looks more natural to me than Pythag's vote.
~~~~~~~
Right now, I'll go on FF, Rockin, JTB, or Pythag.
Lore could quickly end up on that list.
#HBC | Gorf
please sell me on that before I go and look into it myself. I need another eye opening post. I liked your last one.Vote Frozen Flame
I just started a fun new wagon. You'd fit right in here, Pythag. Pocket me and I won't end up pushing the easier Pythag wagon.
In general, I'd really like your take on the slots, the hammer, and where to look. How many scum on which sides of that lynch? Who looks worst of the on and off the wagon groups? Who looks the best? Who looks bad, but you wouldn't vote them?
Pythag, with most but not all posts:
Lots of connections between Doop and UP, and between the quick vote for Doop at the end of D1 plus his interactions/inconsistency with UP, I'm comfortable with feeling that this web of connections is pretty clear.
#169: His first post after confirming is leaping on Utopian and how stating your own meta is fishy. While I agree with Pythag here and it increases my scum read on Utopian, this is another point imo towards the Pythag - Utopian - Doop connection. Will add Rockin to that if Rockin comes up in Pythag's content.
#214: Responds to a vote on him from Ran but shrugs it off. He also shakes hands with Utopian here, more or less completely dropping his earlier suspicion after Utopian's earlier reply. He also makes sure to distance himself from Doop's Marshy stance while explicitly not giving an opinion on Doop himself.
#530: Says that Ran is scummier than Tom but it can still be TvT. Also votes for Maven to "hitch [his] vote to Gorf," which he freely admits.
#778: Posts a long reply, but the Doop content here is him saying that Doop is being bad-aggressive compared to Ran. Also saying that Doop is "lawyery" in his responses. Says that all this is reread notes but still keeps Doop as a gut feeling, despite making sure to say pretty clear reasons why he could suspect Doop. Leaves himself room to wiggle out of a Doop vote or vote for Doop without issue.
#979: Goes out of his way to defend JTB despite the wagon. If JTB flips town, this post is weirdly worded and timed.
The Doop content in this one says that he finds Doop "slightly" scummy, and Pythag goes out of his way to point out how he was suspicious of Doop from "[his, pythag's] first or second post". This was in response to being accused of being inactive/not giving meaningful content, but the pointing out of Doop suspicion feels weird given Doop's flip.
#987: Brief post since he has work. Scum leans on Doop, FF, and Jex. The latter two were passingly mentioned in other posts but not by much. No town leans, only null.
#1003: 20 minutes later he is called out for having no town reads. Town Reads: Gorf, UP, Ran, Ryker. Note the UP here as Town and Doop as scum earlier. This is also with the context of Pythag questioning UP at first then IMMEDIATELY backing off. Why the town lean?
#1017: Says that he originally read Tom v Ran as TvS but feels that less so now. Feels that Tom is the more suspicious of the two, if either of them are. Very loose and noncommital here.
#1033: Says that he has Tom as null now, feels a bit like a buddy attempt to Marshy since Marshy is (mostly) the only one to say suspicion of Tom.
#1154: Despite having UP as one of his earlier town leans, he dives in with my stance against UP. Calls out UP, uses language that coincides with my own posts against UP, etc. Really sudden swap here, and the tone again feels like a buddy attempt. Especially now that I see that he had UP as a town lean earlier.
#1199: Goes out of his way to ping Doop and ask for activity.
#1331: Votes doop after the self vote, says that he's ok with this flip.
#214: Responds to a vote on him from Ran but shrugs it off. He also shakes hands with Utopian here, more or less completely dropping his earlier suspicion after Utopian's earlier reply. He also makes sure to distance himself from Doop's Marshy stance while explicitly not giving an opinion on Doop himself.
#530: Says that Ran is scummier than Tom but it can still be TvT. Also votes for Maven to "hitch [his] vote to Gorf," which he freely admits.
#778: Posts a long reply, but the Doop content here is him saying that Doop is being bad-aggressive compared to Ran. Also saying that Doop is "lawyery" in his responses. Says that all this is reread notes but still keeps Doop as a gut feeling, despite making sure to say pretty clear reasons why he could suspect Doop. Leaves himself room to wiggle out of a Doop vote or vote for Doop without issue.
#979: Goes out of his way to defend JTB despite the wagon. If JTB flips town, this post is weirdly worded and timed.
The Doop content in this one says that he finds Doop "slightly" scummy, and Pythag goes out of his way to point out how he was suspicious of Doop from "[his, pythag's] first or second post". This was in response to being accused of being inactive/not giving meaningful content, but the pointing out of Doop suspicion feels weird given Doop's flip.
#987: Brief post since he has work. Scum leans on Doop, FF, and Jex. The latter two were passingly mentioned in other posts but not by much. No town leans, only null.
#1003: 20 minutes later he is called out for having no town reads. Town Reads: Gorf, UP, Ran, Ryker. Note the UP here as Town and Doop as scum earlier. This is also with the context of Pythag questioning UP at first then IMMEDIATELY backing off. Why the town lean?
#1017: Says that he originally read Tom v Ran as TvS but feels that less so now. Feels that Tom is the more suspicious of the two, if either of them are. Very loose and noncommital here.
#1033: Says that he has Tom as null now, feels a bit like a buddy attempt to Marshy since Marshy is (mostly) the only one to say suspicion of Tom.
#1154: Despite having UP as one of his earlier town leans, he dives in with my stance against UP. Calls out UP, uses language that coincides with my own posts against UP, etc. Really sudden swap here, and the tone again feels like a buddy attempt. Especially now that I see that he had UP as a town lean earlier.
#1199: Goes out of his way to ping Doop and ask for activity.
#1331: Votes doop after the self vote, says that he's ok with this flip.
Lots of connections between Doop and UP, and between the quick vote for Doop at the end of D1 plus his interactions/inconsistency with UP, I'm comfortable with feeling that this web of connections is pretty clear.
I agree.
I think Pythag's a more fruitful lynch. JeXs is my number two still for slots on the wagon.
#HBC | Gorf
toastin walrus since 4/20 maaaan
Lore could quickly end up on that list.
Vote Frozen Flame
@#HBC | FrozenFlame
Can I please get more on your Ran v Tom SvT take?
Can I please get more on your Ran v Tom SvT take?
Two disagreements from me here:
I think that while having all three scum mates is unlikely on the Doop wagon (that'd be poor play), I do think that it's fair to think at least two were on it. On preplanning: he could have simply posted in scum chat "leaving game and self voting, hop on if you want. We may want quick hammer or to bait a town into quick hammer." Anything simple like that.
On the second bit, I highly recommend reading the pythag analysis that I just posted. Very weird behavior towards Doop and Utopian. I also disagree on the player connections; we have a scum flip, and that scum's behavior could be extremely telling.
Right now my favored connection web is Doop - Utopian - Pythag. Rockin is on a backburner until I read his material, and it's mostly based on Doop and Utopian's behavior rather than Rockin's own behavior.
My theory was that you were backing me up out of a perceived (and kind-but-unwarranted) debt from last game, so this take from you is surprising.
With this new take from you in mind Re: Utopian, why did you take such a hard shift then from having UP as town lean then now this?
ranmaru
Smash Legend
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