Day, Night, and Dusk - Lycanroc for Smash Bros. Ultimate

[Guynamednelson]

Er...what's going on? Something happen elsewhere on the boards?

It was just meant to be a crappy April Fool's joke.

 

[RandomAce]

Alright. Remember how I've been mulling over ideas for how to leave some kind of impact regardless of what happens? To have some way of getting word out?

Maybe this guy could help: https://twitter.com/TKOWL_Art

He's started doing commissions for illustrated character concepts. Maybe that'd be something we could look into. I don't have much disposable income of note, and I don't know what things are looking like for the rest of you so I won't put you guys on the spot, but it'd be one possible option if your...bodies are ready for it. What, I can't not say it today.

Maybe he'd offer a discount for art of an already-built concept that he wouldn't have to come up with himself?

I think it’s a pretty good option to go for. All we have to give a visual representation of a moveset for Lycanroc are through words that are up to interpretation. So having a visual would work well! I sadly don’t have money to pay for stuff like that, among other stuff I would need to even make a transaction.

Are you taking suggestions for movesets in case you do want to go with this? I haven’t made one for Lycanroc, so I guess I may as well do that.

 

[Delzethin]

So that's another April Fools' Day in the books. Here's the..."artwork" Showdown used, for your perusal. Our guys got some appropriately derpy looks, and there're a lot of really funny ones in there as well.

It was just meant to be a crappy April Fool's joke.

Ah. The tone of it threw me off--made it seem like someone elsewhere had struck a nerve, more than anything. They key with a good April Fools' joke is to take a leap for the silly and absurd while still being playful and self-aware about it.

Are you taking suggestions for movesets in case you do want to go with this? I haven’t made one for Lycanroc, so I guess I may as well do that.

By all means, let's put something together. We can create a moveset from scratch, or take my older concepts and modify them, or however you guys feel would work best. I can already think of a few changes I'd make to even my Dusk concept from half a year ago...

 

[Garteam]

Welp, Best Buy has managed to leak more new games:

Spoiler

Persona 5, Metroid Prime Trilogy Collection, and, oddly enough, A Link to the Past have all received Switch listings on their site

Between this and the Joker's render leaking, it's basically all but confirmed there's a direct that relatively close in the pipeline. My guess is we'll just see Joker's gameplay, get some details on 3.0, and maybe get the character's announcement.

 

[Cosmic77]

Welp, Best Buy has managed to leak more new games:

Spoiler

Persona 5, Metroid Prime Trilogy Collection, and, oddly enough, A Link to the Past have all received Switch listings on their site

Between this and the Joker's render leaking, it's basically all but confirmed there's a direct that relatively close in the pipeline. My guess is we'll just see Joker's gameplay, get some details on 3.0, and maybe get the character's announcement.

While it's not entirely conclusive, I think we can safety assume that Nintendo is shooting for promoting certain games with this DLC, along with strengthening their ties with other third-parties in the process. Joker was likely added because Persona is a popular game that was presumably in the works of being ported to the Switch for quite some time, and as for Erdrick... Well, we just got a ton of new Dragon Quest announcements in January, so I think you can see why promotion would tie into that too.

Not sure how this bodes for Lycanroc if it's true, but at least we might have a better idea of how Nintendo is selecting their characters. Seems like there was a legitimate reason why Nintendo wanted Joker specifically.

 

[Guynamednelson]

While it's not entirely conclusive, I think we can safety assume that Nintendo is shooting for promoting certain games with this DLC, along with strengthening their ties with other third-parties in the process. Joker was likely added because Persona is a popular game that was presumably in the works of being ported to the Switch for quite some time, and as for Erdrick... Well, we just got a ton of new Dragon Quest announcements in January, so I think you can see why promotion would tie into that too.

Not sure how this bodes for Lycanroc if it's true, but at least we might have a better idea of how Nintendo is selecting their characters. Seems like there was a legitimate reason why Nintendo wanted Joker specifically.

I don't think promotion has to necessarily mean "here's a $5 ad for a new game." You can see this with Erdrick, who would definitely have to be more about how big DQ is in Japan than promoting any Switch port. Likewise with Lycanroc, which would be about how it is more popular among Pokemon fans and promoted than Incineroar, instead of being an ad for SS.

 

[Delzethin]

I don't think promotion has to necessarily mean "here's a $5 ad for a new game." You can see this with Erdrick, who would definitely have to be more about how big DQ is in Japan than promoting any Switch port. Likewise with Lycanroc, which would be about how it is more popular among Pokemon fans and promoted than Incineroar, instead of being an ad for SS.

It's also worth remembering that the clear-cut cases of "promotion" last time around were secondary stuff like stages, costumes, et cetera. Corrin got branded an undeserving shill, but looking beneath the surface shows things weren't so black-and-white. All we know for sure is that Sakurai wanted a character from a newer title--it was backlash from certain fans that wrote in the idea that the only reason a new character could have been chosen was to advertise a game. And since the more commonly discussed something is in this community the more truthful it's seen as...

Well, we need to be careful not to get tripped up by false positives. The first thing that comes to mind isn't necessarily the truth, you know?

 

[Cosmic77]

I'm still of the mindset that promotion and relevancy play an important role in selecting newcomers, especially when you realize characters can be used to promote an entire franchise, not just one new game. Obviously you can't apply that to every character, but I think it shows itself on the roster more often that not, especially in Smash 4. You can really see how much FE and Xenoblade were positively effected by the newcomer additions, and Nintendo was quick to cash in on that.

I don't know what Nintendo would want to promote at this point, but I have a feeling they'll try to incorporate promotion into this DLC regardless, whether that be for a specific game, entire franchise, or a third-party company who Nintendo believes would be a great asset to them if they collaborated more often.

 

[The DanMan051]

I don't know what Nintendo would want to promote at this point, but I have a feeling they'll try to incorporate promotion into this DLC regardless, whether that be for a specific game, entire franchise, or a third-party company who Nintendo believes would be a great asset to them if they collaborated more often.

That much should be obvious, with the first two fighters pass characters directly tying in to upcoming Switch games (albeit technically we shouldn't know that yet but lol datamines and lol Best Buy).

You can mesh this with Smash 4's DLC newcomers and the picture remains pretty consistent; you've either got to be a major 3rd party character or be able to push a recent/upcoming game on Nintendo platforms (with Erdrick ticking both boxes, being iconic in Japan while able to push DQXI outside of it).

Smash is a ludicrously popular and effective PR/marketing tool, which Nintendo knows perfectly well.

 

[Delzethin]

That much should be obvious, with the first two fighters pass characters directly tying in to upcoming Switch games (albeit technically we shouldn't know that yet but lol datamines and lol Best Buy).

You can mesh this with Smash 4's DLC newcomers and the picture remains pretty consistent; you've either got to be a major 3rd party character or be able to push a recent/upcoming game on Nintendo platforms (with Erdrick ticking both boxes, being iconic in Japan while able to push DQXI outside of it).

Smash is a ludicrously popular and effective PR/marketing tool, which Nintendo knows perfectly well.

What's going on? I've seen your remarks elsewhere as well, and they've been coming off really cynical, almost dejected.

We need to keep in mind, the first explanation that comes to mind is not necessarily the correct one. We've seen how widespread such a mindset gets within the Smash community and what damage it can do--remember the backlash Lucario was met with for "replacing" a "more deserving" character in Mewtwo, only for us to find out there was no replacing going on, that Mewtwo was actually planned for Brawl? We need to remember that here, as well--just because rumors of Persona 5 getting a Switch port are becoming increasingly credible doesn't mean Joker must have been chosen for Smash in order to advertise it. Perhaps foreknowledge that said port was in the works was what made Joker a viable option to begin with? Or maybe there's more going on?

Correlation does not mean causation, and we would do well to remember that. If anything, to help stem the tide against so much of the community who believes it does.

------------------------- Anyone know if there's forum code for a horizontal line?

Meanwhile, I've been working on a set of Dusk alts behind the scenes--figured it was worth trying my own hand at them.

Not ready quite yet, though. I've run into some technical difficulties...

 

[MacDaddyNook]

We need to keep in mind, the first explanation that comes to mind is not necessarily the correct one. We've seen how widespread such a mindset gets within the Smash community and what damage it can do--remember the backlash Lucario was met with for "replacing" a "more deserving" character in Mewtwo, only for us to find out there was no replacing going on, that Mewtwo was actually planned for Brawl? We need to remember that here, as well--just because rumors of Persona 5 getting a Switch port are becoming increasingly credible doesn't mean Joker must have been chosen for Smash in order to advertise it. Perhaps foreknowledge that said port was in the works was what made Joker a viable option to begin with? Or maybe there's more going on?

Correlation does not mean causation, and we would do well to remember that. If anything, to help stem the tide against so much of the community who believes it does.

I agree with you and Cloud is the perfect example to prove your point. He was DLC over three years before FF7 was even announced for a Nintendo platform and I'm absolutely certain there were no deals to bring it over back then. It's really not too out there to believe they wanted to put in a character because said character is interesting, beloved and/or would make a fun fighter. Cross promotion might be helpful, and there could be a bit with some choice, but I don't think it's the primary motivation for picking specific fighters.

 

[The DanMan051]

I agree with you and Cloud is the perfect example to prove your point. He was DLC over three years before FF7 was even announced for a Nintendo platform and I'm absolutely certain there were no deals to bring it over back then. It's really not too out there to believe they wanted to put in a character because said character is interesting, beloved and/or would make a fun fighter. Cross promotion might be helpful, and there could be a bit with some choice, but I don't think it's the primary motivation for picking specific fighters.

Cloud is a gaming icon, like Ryu. He also had a massive WTF factor to him, by being pretty much the "stupid meme character who'll never get into Smash" after Goku.

What's going on? I've seen your remarks elsewhere as well, and they've been coming off really cynical, almost dejected.

We need to keep in mind, the first explanation that comes to mind is not necessarily the correct one. We've seen how widespread such a mindset gets within the Smash community and what damage it can do--remember the backlash Lucario was met with for "replacing" a "more deserving" character in Mewtwo, only for us to find out there was no replacing going on, that Mewtwo was actually planned for Brawl? We need to remember that here, as well--just because rumors of Persona 5 getting a Switch port are becoming increasingly credible doesn't mean Joker must have been chosen for Smash in order to advertise it. Perhaps foreknowledge that said port was in the works was what made Joker a viable option to begin with? Or maybe there's more going on?

Correlation does not mean causation, and we would do well to remember that. If anything, to help stem the tide against so much of the community who believes it does.

Spoil tagging this because of both length and lack of relevance to the thread:

Spoiler

I'm just getting a bit more back into Smash speculation now. I'm definitely a bit more vocal about this in general because it feels like much of the community is setting itself up for disappointment while ignoring many characters with unique moveset potential (to reference that circular twitter argument, Ezio from Assassin's Creed or any assassin in general has moveset potential and is far more popular in the grand scheme of things than Rayman yet gets completely ignored); heck, Capcom's two biggest IPs (RE and MH) only very recently have gotten any sort of attention in the speculation department and even then it's relatively minor-- if anything, there's more complaints of "too many Capcom reps".

The Lucario/Mewtwo deal was because of vengeful fan ignorance; likewise, thinking Lucario would be cut from Smash 4 for the same reason and treating it as some sort of "pattern" with only a single prior instance was nonsensical.
...Whereas 5 out of 6 of the known DLC newcomers in series history being 3rd party and expecting the rest of the DLC makes sense and is far more grounded.

Conversely, from that:
>Cloud and Ryu are gaming icons
>...Corrin was added because a character from a recent/upcoming game was planned to be added and their timing was considered perfect, Bayonetta was released and always set to be released instead of the actual Smash Ballot winner (probably K. Rool) and had a re-print of both the Bayonetta 1 Wii U port and Bayonetta 2 put out at bargain price two weeks after she was added to Smash, Joker seems to be rather tightly cross-promoting with Persona 5 Royale (by virtue of the whole female alt deal) and a Persona 5 switch release is all but officially confirmed, and "Brave" is almost certainly Erdrick and is often rumored to have an alt skin featuring the DQXI protag... and DQXI:S is releasing on the Switch in the back half of the year.

This is the inverse of fan rage; this is what the vocal minority hates to hear. Yet it would be foolish to say a pattern doesn't stand out: either you're a gaming icon or you tie into/promote another game (Erdrick gets to check both, by being a gaming icon in Japan and promoting DQXI and DQ in general in the West).

...But ultimately, I was just lurking a few of these threads and left my reply to Cosmic77. This has nothing to do with Lycanroc speculation and sorry for the intrusion.

I don't think Lycanroc has anything going for him, but the movest ideas in this thread are at least interesting and I wouldn't be against it if it popped up.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I've been thinking about this for a while: You know how there's this term going around called the "Smash Bubble", AKA "If a DLC character is anyone but Steve they'll sell -3 copies and Nintendo will go bankrupt"? Because I think there is another bubble in this community that needs to be addressed: I call it the Big Biped Bubble. This is a bubble that acts like Pokemon that have mostly-humanoid bodies and heights at least as tall as Lucario's are the only ones that have any sort of popularity and promotion, despite how:

• Sakurai thought it was worth it to bring back all vets, and the remaining Pokemon to bring back were ones that don't meet the BBB's approval
• Japan's top Alola Pokemon includes plenty of quadrupeds and non-humanoid bipeds, and Pukumuku
• These stats for a favorite-Pokemon-of-each-type generator include Pokemon with a variety of heights and body styles
• This pre-SM top 100 from Japan also has such variety
• Why do you think Let's Go Eevee exists?

Also, with those links, note how Lycanroc is one of Japan's top 5 and Incineroar isn't even top 10, and the cpokemon link features two Lycanroc forms but no Incineroar.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Cloud is a gaming icon, like Ryu. He also had a massive WTF factor to him, by being pretty much the "stupid meme character who'll never get into Smash" after Goku.



Spoil tagging this because of both length and lack of relevance to the thread:

Spoiler

I'm just getting a bit more back into Smash speculation now. I'm definitely a bit more vocal about this in general because it feels like much of the community is setting itself up for disappointment while ignoring many characters with unique moveset potential (to reference that circular twitter argument, Ezio from Assassin's Creed or any assassin in general has moveset potential and is far more popular in the grand scheme of things than Rayman yet gets completely ignored); heck, Capcom's two biggest IPs (RE and MH) only very recently have gotten any sort of attention in the speculation department and even then it's relatively minor-- if anything, there's more complaints of "too many Capcom reps".

The Lucario/Mewtwo deal was because of vengeful fan ignorance; likewise, thinking Lucario would be cut from Smash 4 for the same reason and treating it as some sort of "pattern" with only a single prior instance was nonsensical.
...Whereas 5 out of 6 of the known DLC newcomers in series history being 3rd party and expecting the rest of the DLC makes sense and is far more grounded.

Conversely, from that:
>Cloud and Ryu are gaming icons
>...Corrin was added because a character from a recent/upcoming game was planned to be added and their timing was considered perfect, Bayonetta was released and always set to be released instead of the actual Smash Ballot winner (probably K. Rool) and had a re-print of both the Bayonetta 1 Wii U port and Bayonetta 2 put out at bargain price two weeks after she was added to Smash, Joker seems to be rather tightly cross-promoting with Persona 5 Royale (by virtue of the whole female alt deal) and a Persona 5 switch release is all but officially confirmed, and "Brave" is almost certainly Erdrick and is often rumored to have an alt skin featuring the DQXI protag... and DQXI:S is releasing on the Switch in the back half of the year.

This is the inverse of fan rage; this is what the vocal minority hates to hear. Yet it would be foolish to say a pattern doesn't stand out: either you're a gaming icon or you tie into/promote another game (Erdrick gets to check both, by being a gaming icon in Japan and promoting DQXI and DQ in general in the West).

...But ultimately, I was just lurking a few of these threads and left my reply to Cosmic77. This has nothing to do with Lycanroc speculation and sorry for the intrusion.

I don't think Lycanroc has anything going for him, but the movest ideas in this thread are at least interesting and I wouldn't be against it if it popped up.

Spoiler: Spoilers, just to avoid the thread continuing off track

That's a fair enough assessment and you make some good points. I can see what you mean by the patterns of either icons or promotional picks, but I do think a third category exists in these patterns as well; that being of fan demand which pertains to Roy/Lucas who were brought back due to popular demand. The argument could be that this was because they were veterans, but I think fan outcry also played a factor in it as well. As of now, I think we may need a few more pieces to see what direction they are taking DLC with this game, Erdrick is the top contender for "Brave," but until we know conclusively who that character will end up, it's a bit of a gray area.

It's an interesting topic to talk about, and if you would like to proceed further on it, I think a dedicated thread for it would be good.

Returning back to Lycanrock, it does have possibility for some run rock/earthbending abilities that could make it stand out and its strong presence in the show could kinda justify it as a promotional pick.

 

[Delzethin]

It's worth mentioning that looking only at past DLC, outside of context, doesn't quite tell the full picture. I bring up how Corrin was not as simple as detractors claim as an example often because of that, as Corrin's debut game was already half a year past release in Japan and we don't know how much promotion factored in compared to relevance or the now-or-never factor or even Corrin's unique shapeshifting abilities.

Yet the narrative of Corrin being blatant advertising who "didn't deserve it" got so loud so quickly that it became the default that others are compared to, and we're still feeling the aftereffects around here, in a way. Notice how the burden of proof has been placed on pretty much anyone who doesn't think this round of DLC must be nothing but third party shocker picks and maybe a first party advertisement? Even though at least 3 of 7 characters last time around were neither (because apparently it doesn't count when they're veterans; some moving of the goalposts there), when we didn't see Wolf return to "promote" the then-in-development Star Fox Zero, when we didn't see Snake come back as a shock factor pick?

And especially since Ultimate's very first DLC character was itself neither:

In fact, according to Sakurai, the main reason Piranha Plant got the nod was uniqueness while still being a character people would recognize. So why is that never brought up? Is it because Plant was given out for free to early adopters?

Because when you think about it, it says something that they decided to have the one character from this wave who isn't part of a bundle, the one who has to sell entirely on its own merits and not as part of a greater whole to anyone buying into Ultimate now, is a character meant to be a unique addition first and foremost. Not an advertising tool, nor a guest fighter chosen to make jaws drop. And it worked! You saw all the #PlantGang tags make the rounds, and all the talk of how bizarre and interesting its moveset was!

I've been thinking about this for a while: You know how there's this term going around called the "Smash Bubble", AKA "If a DLC character is anyone but Steve they'll sell -3 copies and Nintendo will go bankrupt"? Because I think there is another bubble in this community that needs to be addressed: I call it the Big Biped Bubble. This is a bubble that acts like Pokemon that have mostly-humanoid bodies and heights at least as tall as Lucario's are the only ones that have any sort of popularity and promotion, despite how:

• Sakurai thought it was worth it to bring back all vets, and the remaining Pokemon to bring back were ones that don't meet the BBB's approval
• Japan's top Alola Pokemon includes plenty of quadrupeds and non-humanoid bipeds, and Pukumuku
• These stats for a favorite-Pokemon-of-each-type generator include Pokemon with a variety of heights and body styles
• This pre-SM top 100 from Japan also has such variety
• Why do you think Let's Go Eevee exists?

Also, with those links, note how Lycanroc is one of Japan's top 5 and Incineroar isn't even top 10, and the cpokemon link features two Lycanroc forms but no Incineroar.

What does this "Smash Bubble" infer? That how likely a character is seen to be is usually determined by how often speculators talk about them? Because I think that's the bigger factor here: people outside the Pokémon fandom think you basically have to be a starter to get into Smash, with the only exceptions being characters who got popular among non-Pokémon fans (Lucario, Mimikyu, etc). The problem with this is not only does it feel myopic and carry a faint scent of gatekeeping, it also completely overlooks or sometimes even ignores what is going on within the Pokémon fandom itself. This has happened in the past, too--during Smash 4 speculation, nearly everyone outside the Fire Emblem fanbase believed Chrom was the only legitimate newcomer option, while the FE fandom itself was split 50-50 between Chrom and Robin while also occasionally entertaining alternate ideas like Lucina or Anna.

This is how, say, we get arguments that over-rely on popularity as proof of merit while completely ignoring a character who has literally made Top 5 of multiple popularity polls covering characters within its generation. Because those polls, and the people who voted in them, are under-acknowledged by many Smash speculators. For...several reasons.

And that plays right into the potential for another Piranha Plant situation, even. One of the reasons Sakurai stated the team felt comfortable making Plant a thing was how many people would recognize it. Well, Lycanroc has been super prominent within Pokémon's 7th generation, one has the team MVP role in the anime, and a Rockruff with the ability to become a rare form was given out for the first few months of USUM's run (meaning anyone who bought those games the first few months had easy access to one). Anyone who has played one of the Alola games--which sold like crazy, mind you--and many who didn't would recognize this character, and Piranha Plant showed that many more still are willing to give an unexpected newcomer a shot if they look fresh and interesting.

 

[Guynamednelson]

What does this "Smash Bubble" infer?

That only a minority would have any interest in characters like Isaac or Bandana Dee, even though Smash has done wonders for many characters' popularity. It also has something to do with how people were pissed about Isabelle getting in over someone much less iconic.

And yes, "people outside the Pokémon fandom think you basically have to be a starter to get into Smash" is kind of what I mean, because both Decidueye and Incineroar, two Pokemon that were bandwagoned this speculation season, meet the requirements of the BBB. Also, think about how there are people who didn't shoot down Gardevoir/Gothitelle despite only one of them being super popular.

 

[UserKev]

And yes, "people outside the Pokémon fandom think you basically have to be a starter to get into Smash" is kind of what I mean, because both Decidueye and Incineroar, two Pokemon that were bandwagoned this speculation season, meet the requirements of the BBB. Also, think about how there are people who didn't shoot down Gardevoir/Gothitelle despite only one of them being super popular.

.. Incineroar wasn't bandwagoned. He was the underdog even in comparison to Mimikyu. It was just Decidueye that truly suffered the syndrome during gen 7's competition.

 

[LukeRNG]

I've been thinking about the ratio of haracters that fall into 2 very general categories: the popular characters (requested) and the newcomer characters (more recent characters).
Ignoring smash 64 and melee that basically filled their rosters with nintendo's biggest characters at the time (and to some extent brawl), i've looked at smash 4 and ultimate for said ratio and this is how it looks from my perspective:

Spoiler: Smash 4

Villager: Highly requested with a unique moveset. Is relatively old.
Mega Man: Gaming Icon and highly requested. Very much an old character.
Wii Fit Trainer: Obscure pick that makes sense given Wii Fit's success with a very different kind of moveset. Faily recent.
Rosalina & Luma: Highly requested & very popular in the Mario series. Fairly Recent.
Little Mac: Highly requested and suprisingly unique for only using punches. Very much a retro character.
Greninja: In Sakurai's eyes, the best pick from gen 6 for uniqueness, who luckily got very popular in the pokemon community. Recent game.
Palutena: Higly requested thanks to Kid Icarus resurgence with Sakurai's 3DS title. Is technically a retro character.
Pac-Man: Gaming Icon. Older than Mario.
Robin: Picked over Chrom for having more potential for a unique moveset, just as popular as Chrom. Recent game.
Shulk: Character from a recent series.
Bowser Jr.: Very popular mario character and with a unique kind of moveset.
Duck Hunt: Retro character from the NES.
Dark Pit & Lucina: Last minute bonuses, both from recent games.
Ryu: Gaming Icon, has history with nintendo.
Cloud: The face of the RPG genre.
Corrin: Newest character up till that time.
Bayonetta: Beloved character who's series was saved by nintendo.

Total tally:
Polularity: 10
Recent characters: 9

Spoiler: Ultimate (so far)

Inkling: Very popular request and faily recent.
Daisy: Very popular mario character.
Ridley: Very, very highly requested.
Simon Belmont: Gaming icon from the NES.
Richter Belmont: Popular character from his franchise and a bonus.
Chrom: Highly requested.
Dark Samus: Highly requested.
King K. Rool: Very popular smash candidate and highly requested.
Isabelle: Popular character in Animal Crossing series.
Ken: Popular street fighter character and a bonus.
Incineroar: Character from recent pokemon games.
Piranha Plant: Solely picked for uniqueness and recognition alone.
Joker: Popular modern character.

Total tally:
Polularity: 12
Recent characters: 2

From seeing this, there always seemed to be a balance of popular and recent characters in Smash 4 and even brawl, even though to me it felt like smash 4 added mostly recent characters.
In smash ultimate it's more clear that they went with popularity and high demand for picking characters.

So i guess we can expect the balance to return in the next entry in the series. Given this analisis, what popular characters do you think will finally get their chance in the next smash, given that a lot of them are already in some form in smash ultimate (assist trophy, pokeball summon, mii costume, stage cameo, spirit)?

 

[Luigifan18]

I recently saw this video about Lycanroc and figured that you might be interested.

 

[UserKev]

So i guess we can expect the balance to return in the next entry in the series. Given this analisis, what popular characters do you think will finally get their chance in the next smash, given that a lot of them are already in some form in smash ultimate (assist trophy, pokeball summon, mii costume, stage cameo, spirit)?

Dixie Kong is a serious front runner and I want to believe in Skull Kid. Meowth could be the next Piranha Plant scenario and potentially Isaac. Lyn could be the equivalent to how Chrom happened and unforgettably, Ashley.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I think I need to explain these bubbles a little better:

Smash Bubble: Complains about 10 Pokemon but wants every SMRPG character. Acts like Isabelle happening before this is something even the world's top scientists can't figure out.
Anti-Smash Bubble Bubble: Acts like Steve is the only character who can sell. Despite this, doesn't question the existence of a pass with 5 characters, or where all these FE6 fans came from online.
Big Biped Bubble: Wants to cut Jigglypuff for "being irrelevant" while ignoring the relevancy of any Pokemon that doesn't have at least a somewhat humanoid body. And/or isn't a fully evolved starter with this body type.

 

[Arcadenik]

Meowth could be the next Piranha Plant scenario

Yes. That would be a dream come true for me.

 

[Garteam]

Meowth is a character that's pretty unrated in terms of Smash potential. He's nearly at a Pikachu level in terms of recognizability, seeing how he's been consistently appearing in the anime for the past 20 years. I actually considered Alolan Meowth as a possibility for a Gen 7 rep before settling on Lycanroc. It's a shame he's stuck in Pokeball purgatory.

.. Incineroar wasn't bandwagoned. He was the underdog even in comparison to Mimikyu. It was just Decidueye that truly suffered the syndrome during gen 7's competition.

While Decidueye was the Pokemon most people jumped on early in the speculation cycle, his support basically all but died out after Vergeben deconfirmed him. Once that happened, many of the people who had just penciled Decidueye in because they needed a Gen 7 Pokemon in their predictions jumped ship to Incineroar (seeing how he was the most noteable Pokemon who had yet to be deconfirmed by Vergeben). After that, Incineroar rode steadily as the most expected Pokemon up until his reveal, only really losing support when the Grinch leak was at its peak. That's not to say either character didn't have legitimate fans who wanted them for them, but those two were the favourites of people who just needed a Pokemon to fill their rosters out.

 

[Deleted member]

Oh please.
If Verge hadn't said Lycanroc wasn't in the game and people flocked to it as a result, you wouldn't DARE to claim Lyancroc was a bandwagon for the sake of completing a quota. Because it would be Lycanroc, it would be "legitimate".

Your double standards disgust me.

 

[The DanMan051]

It's worth mentioning that looking only at past DLC, outside of context, doesn't quite tell the full picture. I bring up how Corrin was not as simple as detractors claim as an example often because of that, as Corrin's debut game was already half a year past release in Japan and we don't know how much promotion factored in compared to relevance or the now-or-never factor or even Corrin's unique shapeshifting abilities.

Yet the narrative of Corrin being blatant advertising who "didn't deserve it" got so loud so quickly that it became the default that others are compared to, and we're still feeling the aftereffects around here, in a way. Notice how the burden of proof has been placed on pretty much anyone who doesn't think this round of DLC must be nothing but third party shocker picks and maybe a first party advertisement? Even though at least 3 of 7 characters last time around were neither (because apparently it doesn't count when they're veterans; some moving of the goalposts there), when we didn't see Wolf return to "promote" the then-in-development Star Fox Zero, when we didn't see Snake come back as a shock factor pick?

And especially since Ultimate's very first DLC character was itself neither:

In fact, according to Sakurai, the main reason Piranha Plant got the nod was uniqueness while still being a character people would recognize. So why is that never brought up? Is it because Plant was given out for free to early adopters?

Because when you think about it, it says something that they decided to have the one character from this wave who isn't part of a bundle, the one who has to sell entirely on its own merits and not as part of a greater whole to anyone buying into Ultimate now, is a character meant to be a unique addition first and foremost. Not an advertising tool, nor a guest fighter chosen to make jaws drop. And it worked! You saw all the #PlantGang tags make the rounds, and all the talk of how bizarre and interesting its moveset was!

To pull a translation from a site you've contributed to:
https://www.sourcegaming.info/2017/01/01/new-content-approaching-corrin/
"After internal analysis, we decided that if we’re going to make DLC, we would choose a character from a soon-to-be-released new game. After consulting many times with Nintendo and looking at the upcoming release schedule, Fire Emblem Fates was in just the right spot. It’s already been released in Japan, but is yet to be released overseas, making it a prime candidate in terms of timing. I personally felt that having too many Fire Emblem characters was a problem, but after talking it over with the development staff and discussing logistics, I felt certain that I could make them a fun character. "


"we decided that if we’re going to make DLC, we would choose a character from a soon-to-be-released new game"

Spelled out right here.
It's not some BS narrative to try to discredit Corrin (albeit it's used as such), it's a basic logical inference from Sakurai's own words. We also know (from that same paragraph) that Sakurai was uncertain about their inclusion and only rolled with it after talking with the development staff and being certain that he could make a fun character.

Smash 4's DLC had veteran characters who didn't take nearly as much in the way of resources to develop and were guaranteed sellers because much of the consumer base was already familiar with them. Including them in the equation is apples to oranges.

And base game inclusions pretty clearly have different criteria; the fact Nintendo had no interest in actually using the Smash Ballot for Smash 4 DLC but was fine with it influencing the base roster of Ultimate should tell you enough.

As for Piranha Plant, it's outright listed among the basegame characters internally, had tons of data in the game at launch, and has a Guidance convo when Sakurai's confirmed that no other DLC characters will have one.
Piranha Plant was a basegame character that couldn't be completed in time for launch.

EDIT: At this point I'm just gonna make a thread about this rather than dragging on about it in here. Apologies for the derailment.

 

[Garteam]

Oh please.
If Verge hadn't said Lycanroc wasn't in the game and people flocked to it as a result, you wouldn't DARE to claim Lyancroc was a bandwagon for the sake of completing a quota. Because it would be Lycanroc, it would be "legitimate".

Your double standards disgust me.

Bandwagons are something of a necessary evil in Smash speculation, especially for characters in Smash. Do you think that everyone who is interested in Smash speculation has the time to personally play every game and get acquainted with every character that has potential to get into Smash? No, so sometimes riding off others opinions and evidence is necessary to critically assess if a character actually has legitimate grounds to stand on. For example, I haven't played Xenoblade 2, as I'm not really interested in investing myself into a massive JRPG when I'm not a huge fan of the genre and my time is somewhat limited. However, I acknowledged that there was a decent chance of a Xenoblade 2 character in Smash, so I penciled in Pyra based on what a friend of mine told me about the characters despite not having much of connection with the character.

But to answer your question, yes. If Vergeben came in and said "Hey guys, Lycanroc is the next DLC character!" and all of a sudden people flocked to this thread to claim they always supported Lycanroc, then ya, I'd call that a bandwagon. Hell, one of my most wanted is going through a bit of a bandwagon effect right now. I've been supporting Erdrick and Dragon Quest in Smash as a whole since late 2015 and I can tell you that the rumours of Erdrick coming in to Smash has brought a ton of support to him. I highly doubt that the influx of supporters we've seen in the last few months are all people who have played Dragon Quest III and knew that Erdrick would be a great Smash character, most of them are people who have never touched a Dragon Quest game and are interested in learning more about a popular character choice largely because he's popular. Does this mean that characters who develop bandwagons have no actual merits or legitimate fans who like them for who they are? Of course not, that's ridiculous. Hell, bandwagoning based on likeliness can actually help out a character. Ridley wouldn't have been able to get the support he did if his supporters weren't able to lay his case out so well to those who were unfamiliar with the character and convince them that his inclusion was a winnable fight. But acting like everyone who supports characters that are seen as "likely" is doing so solely out of personal affiliation towards that character is a disingenuous at best.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Meowth is a character that's pretty unrated in terms of Smash potential. He's nearly at a Pikachu level in terms of recognizability, seeing how he's been consistently appearing in the anime for the past 20 years.

I think it's Eevee that's more underrated. You'd think "is pushed as an alternative to Pikachu in a recent Pokemon game due to its family's massive popularity" would make more people think it's absurd that one is playable in Smash and the other is in Character-Summoning Item Purgatory.

 

[GlaceonGD]

I think it's Eevee that's more underrated. You'd think "is pushed as an alternative to Pikachu in a recent Pokemon game due to its family's massive popularity" would make more people think it's absurd that one is playable in Smash and the other is in Character-Summoning Item Purgatory.

I completely agree, but that's probably just my bias shining through. Unfortunately I don't think it's going to happen though, no matter how badly I want it. Hard to keep good spirit when people always tell me I'm wrong for wanting eevee in smash but oh well I've pretty much just gotten used to it at this point.

However on the topic of lycanroc, I could help out a bit with that moveset planning if you'd like. I spent a good two days making a moveset idea for eevee (never finished it though because I'm lazy, I think there were only like two moves I left out) so I'm no stranger to that kind of thing, just let me know if you're interested in my help. I know I haven't been very active in here the past few months but that's because I just don't have much to say, I check messages every day though so I'm always caught up with everything going on.

 

[UserKev]

While Decidueye was the Pokemon most people jumped on early in the speculation cycle, his support basically all but died out after Vergeben deconfirmed him. Once that happened, many of the people who had just penciled Decidueye in because they needed a Gen 7 Pokemon in their predictions jumped ship to Incineroar (seeing how he was the most noteable Pokemon who had yet to be deconfirmed by Vergeben). After that, Incineroar rode steadily as the most expected Pokemon up until his reveal, only really losing support when the Grinch leak was at its peak. That's not to say either character didn't have legitimate fans who wanted them for them, but those two were the favourites of people who just needed a Pokemon to fill their rosters out.

Its okay if you don't like Incineraor, dude and bandwagons aren't a necessary evil. They can just be an extremely tedious process. Incineroar "WASN'T" bandwagoned by any means and to say he was is a bit unfair, because its not totally logically to expect new Pokémon representation every Smash instalment. Incineroar "WAS" the underdog and when the tables had honestly moved, people with sense realized Incineroar's likability, thus warmed up to his survivability. That's respect and realization as Incineroar's support was completely natural in the end.

 

[Guynamednelson]

The true people with sense are the ones who noticed Incineroar was struggling to be a top favorite in the Pokemon fanbase, and was more like the prince of marketing than the king. The Smash fandom was just biased because they don't like knowing Pokemon without a certain body type exist. I know Sakurai wanted him to be a safe choice, but:

• Rowlet, Mimikyu, and the Rockruff family all being instant hits
• People wanting the starter evolution leak to be fake due to Incineroar and Primarina's design
• Japan preferring Primarina and the West preferring Decidueye
• Ash getting his own Lycanroc form
• All those characters that wouldn't get in if the box theory was true
• The Grinch leak giving people who weren't Incineroar fans hope

All prevent him from truly being a safe choice.

 

[Cosmic77]

Based on the anime and the special promotion it got long before it's reveal, it's clear that Incineroar was the starter Game Freak was predicting to be popular. That might have been a large part of the reason why Sakurai ultimately chose it over Decidueye.

One thing people tend to get wrong about Incineroar though is that he's never really been an unpopular Pokemon, or at least not in the Pokemon fandom. It's true that he was initially hated because people thought he was a fighter type, but once people saw that he wasn't, they warmed up to him rather quickly. Believe it or not, it's actually Decidueye who struggled with the fans globally, not Incineroar or Primarina (who ended up being the most popular starter to my dismay). The only reason people considered Decidueye to be wildly popular is because everyone and their grandparents were predicting it would get in Smash, so much so that believing any other starter would get in was taboo. I mean, Decidueye was unique! It was different! How could an archer Pokemon not get added!? So once Verge hinted at Incineroar, there was a lot of backlash, not so much because Decidueye was extremely popular in the Pokemon fandom or because Incineroar was ever an unpopular Pokemon, but more so because people convinced themselves that they wanted Decidueye and only Decidyeye because of its moveset potential.

Incineroar didn't really suprise me. The small cues from Game Freak had made me expect it more than Decidueye. I just think it's more than a little unfair that a Pokemon who people genuinely liked when Sun and Moon launched is now hated almost entirely because of the Smash fandom, biased opinions, and speculation.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I just think it's more than a little unfair that a Pokemon who people genuinely liked when Sun and Moon launched is now hated almost entirely because of the Smash fandom, biased opinions, and speculation.

https://pre00.deviantart.net/4c44/t...on_popularity_rankings_by_hewdraw-dc3vkbs.png -Lycanroc is top 5, Incineroar isn't even top 10.
https://www.cpokemon.com/seccion/herramientas/tipos/stats/ -Incineroar isn't top 5 in fire or dark, but two Lycanroc forms are in rock's top 5.

 

[Delzethin]

While Decidueye was the Pokemon most people jumped on early in the speculation cycle, his support basically all but died out after Vergeben deconfirmed him. Once that happened, many of the people who had just penciled Decidueye in because they needed a Gen 7 Pokemon in their predictions jumped ship to Incineroar (seeing how he was the most noteable Pokemon who had yet to be deconfirmed by Vergeben). After that, Incineroar rode steadily as the most expected Pokemon up until his reveal, only really losing support when the Grinch leak was at its peak. That's not to say either character didn't have legitimate fans who wanted them for them, but those two were the favourites of people who just needed a Pokemon to fill their rosters out.

Essentially. It's like I already touched on, the more often a character is talked about in this community, the greater their chances of joining the fight are perceived as being. And the one thing to sway that above all else is being tied to a popular rumor.

This was also why Gothitelle saw a spark of talk back in the summer, as well. One rumor that some claimed had predicted Richter's inclusion also said it was picked as an echo fighter for Gardevoir, purported by the same rumor as a newcomer. While some speculators questioned it--because among other things, it'd claimed Richter was getting in instead of Simon, not alongside--others skimmed it and decided it had to be true.

It's like a strange mix of a desire to belong and a desire to be right, and the more that rumors ramp up, the more widespread it becomes. To the point where some start to dismiss and even attack anyone who isn't tied to rumors, lest we forget.

To pull a translation from a site you've contributed to:
https://www.sourcegaming.info/2017/01/01/new-content-approaching-corrin/
"After internal analysis, we decided that if we’re going to make DLC, we would choose a character from a soon-to-be-released new game. After consulting many times with Nintendo and looking at the upcoming release schedule, Fire Emblem Fates was in just the right spot. It’s already been released in Japan, but is yet to be released overseas, making it a prime candidate in terms of timing. I personally felt that having too many Fire Emblem characters was a problem, but after talking it over with the development staff and discussing logistics, I felt certain that I could make them a fun character. "


"we decided that if we’re going to make DLC, we would choose a character from a soon-to-be-released new game"

Spelled out right here.
It's not some BS narrative to try to discredit Corrin (albeit it's used as such), it's a basic logical inference from Sakurai's own words. We also know (from that same paragraph) that Sakurai was uncertain about their inclusion and only rolled with it after talking with the development staff and being certain that he could make a fun character.

Smash 4's DLC had veteran characters who didn't take nearly as much in the way of resources to develop and were guaranteed sellers because much of the consumer base was already familiar with them. Including them in the equation is apples to oranges.

And base game inclusions pretty clearly have different criteria; the fact Nintendo had no interest in actually using the Smash Ballot for Smash 4 DLC but was fine with it influencing the base roster of Ultimate should tell you enough.

As for Piranha Plant, it's outright listed among the basegame characters internally, had tons of data in the game at launch, and has a Guidance convo when Sakurai's confirmed that no other DLC characters will have one.
Piranha Plant was a basegame character that couldn't be completed in time for launch.

I've never argued Sakurai didn't say Corrin resulted from the team wanting to try out a character from an at-the-time current game. My issue stems from watching like 90% of the community jump from there to "it must have been to advertise their game" as if that was the only possible explanation, ignoring several others that would still line up with Sakurai's word on the subject. And now it's being extrapolated--something that, from a statistics standpoint, you never want to do with such a small sample size--to decree the only possible first party options have to be characters who would advertise games Nintendo wants to sell!

It reeks of deciding that the first idea that comes to mind must be the only possible outcome. We're better off keeping our options open when there is still so much going on that we are not aware of.

Piranha Plant isn't so clear-cut itself, even. Sakurai's been very upfront about wanting to cram as much into the base game as possible, and while not everything can fit in, splicing out a half-finished character for the sake of selling it separately to anyone who isn't an early adopter...doesn't gel with what we know about him. And again, there are other possible explanations--perhaps Plant was far enough along when the new Guidance lines were recorded that they decided to have one made for it. Perhaps they didn't bother to hide any data related to it because everyone knew it was a thing at that point. After all, it was ready not even two months after Ultimate's release--compare to Mewtwo, who took over 4 months past both versions of Smash 4. Perhaps its development was meant to be a test run for the DLC dev cycle, even?

Oh please.
If Verge hadn't said Lycanroc wasn't in the game and people flocked to it as a result, you wouldn't DARE to claim Lyancroc was a bandwagon for the sake of completing a quota. Because it would be Lycanroc, it would be "legitimate".

Your double standards disgust me.

As a matter of fact, I did have and still have contingency plans for if a bandwagon springs up. I'd want to steer them straight as best I can--I've spent enough time on the wrong end of such things to want my own side to not be responsible for the same problems.

Of course, I haven't been in that situation yet and haven't had the chance to actually implement it. But why did you jump into this assuming I'd look the other way if it was happening for my character, anyway? Why are you so quick to pick fights still when your character "won"?

 

[Guynamednelson]

Why are you so quick to pick fights still when your character "won"?

Because Smashboards users must force you to like Incineroar more than the Pokemon Company is. Cat Jesus will save us from the evil non-anthropomorphic Pokemon.

 

[Cosmic77]

https://pre00.deviantart.net/4c44/t...on_popularity_rankings_by_hewdraw-dc3vkbs.png -Lycanroc is top 5, Incineroar isn't even top 10.
https://www.cpokemon.com/seccion/herramientas/tipos/stats/ -Incineroar isn't top 5 in fire or dark, but two Lycanroc forms are in rock's top 5.

Ehh... I don't really think those are good examples.

The first one shows us that Incineroar was indeed popular in Japan, especially when compared to Decidueye, who failed to even make it in the top 25, and Midnight Lycanroc, who I believe ranked 52nd (but don't quote me on that). The second one was taken in September of 2017, which kinda emphasizes my point about how Smash speculation distorts our image of which Pokemon are genuinely popular in the Pokemon fandom and not just someone we want as a playable character in Smash. Coincidence that Sceptile and Decidueye were the two most popular grass types in that poll?

 

[Guynamednelson]

The second one was taken in September of 2017, which kinda emphasizes my point about how Smash speculation distorts our image of which Pokemon are genuinely popular in the Pokemon fandom and not just someone we want as a playable character in Smash. Coincidence that Sceptile and Decidueye were the two most popular grass types in that poll?

In Smash speculation, you're supposed to act like Meowth is still more popular than Eevee. Guess who's the #1 normal type and who's nowhere to be seen on those stats?

 

[RandomAce]

So much stuff to talk about. But I’m not done with my moveset yet...

Ehh... I don't really think those are good examples.

The first one shows us that Incineroar was indeed popular in Japan, especially when compared to Decidueye, who failed to even make it in the top 25, and Midnight Lycanroc, who I believe ranked 52nd (but don't quote me on that). The second one was taken in September of 2017, which kinda emphasizes my point about how Smash speculation distorts our image of which Pokemon are genuinely popular in the Pokemon fandom and not just someone we want as a playable character in Smash. Coincidence that Sceptile and Decidueye were the two most popular grass types in that poll?

For the first one, I believe Decidueye got 15th, Midday in the 20’s and Midnight around early 50’s. It’s a Japanese poll for people exclusive to that magazine so I don’t put too much thought into it.

The second poll I believe to have reached far more people. The problem is that it only listed Pokémon under types, so we don’t know how far up, let’s say, the first place Dark type is compared to the first place Fire type, etc.

Although, to be fair, General pokemon popularity is the only thing we really have to go off of. As standard polls have a far smaller sample size to go off of, not to mention how fragmented Pokémon choices are for Smash newcomers. Usually a pokemon’s popularity does give some sort of idea on how liked those fans will be if that pokemon would to ever join Smash.

 

[Deleted member]

Why are you so quick to pick fights still when your character "won"?

Because your people are even quicker to claim that the "win" was a fluke. That support was illegitimate and only bandwagoned because Vergeben. That the only reason my character "won" was because it was a "lazy product of rushed development".
It's less that I'm going out of my way to "pick" fights and more that I get roped into them. Now instead of having to defend my character as a potential option, it's having to defend my character as the actual option chosen.

It's been months since November, and it has gotten real old by this point.

 

[RandomAce]

Because your people are even quicker to claim that the "win" was a fluke. That support was illegitimate and only bandwagoned because Vergeben. That the only reason my character "won" was because it was a "lazy product of rushed development".
It's less that I'm going out of my way to "pick" fights and more that I get roped into them. Now instead of having to defend my character as a potential option, it's having to defend my character as the actual option chosen.

It's been months since November, and it has gotten real old by this point.

Dude, I don’t think everyone here is trying to say any of that about Incineroar. It’s more people speculating on what they think happened and how it could’ve affect Lycanroc overall.

And even then, not everyone agrees with eachother on everything said here. There have been a couple of times where I can see something that may have tipped you off that not everyone agreed with.

I’m pretty sure the majority of the people here don’t outright hate Incineroar as much as you think they would, or use this place to vent it. And when there were moments where this was shown, it either wasn’t brought up further, or is out weight by the more neutral opinions on it.

 

[Deleted member]

Dude, I don’t think everyone here is trying to say any of that about Incineroar. It’s more people speculating on what they think happened and how it could’ve affect Lycanroc overall.

And even then, not everyone agrees with eachother on everything said here. There have been a couple of times where I can see something that may have tipped you off that not everyone agreed with.

I’m pretty sure the majority of the people here don’t outright hate Incineroar as much as you think they would, or use this place to vent it. And when there were moments where this was shown, it either wasn’t brought up further, or is out weight by the more neutral opinions on it.

-sigh-
You're probably right.

It's just....dealing with the pre-release days was Hell to be honest, and I'm feeling like I'm reliving that at times despite Incineroar being playable. It's got me a bit on edge, and I apologize.