So, now we wait and see what the Direct has in store.
What kind of Smash news we get will depend on whether this Direct was always planned for now or was delayed from January, I think. If this was supposed to be a January Direct, perhaps any segment for Ultimate would've been focused on Piranha Plant, which isn't needed now. I think there's a plausible chance we get details on Joker or at least a render + release window, but
right now I think the odds of a newcomer reveal aren't all that great barring another unusual example like Joker's gameplay-less trailer.
Still, though, if we're to have a fighting chance, now's the time. With the greater context suggesting we were too late for the base roster
and suggesting Gen 8's characters are still too in flux to have been an option a few months ago, the door is still open for us. Even if only a little, and if an awful lot of other speculators keep insisting the door must be shut without checking to make sure.
Us against the world? Business as usual, right?
I think you bring up some good points but I think it could still go both ways. Either,
- Sakurai, not wanting to make the same mistake, avoids planning around any character who hasn't been released yet. This means any character who isn't already in a game before even possibly as early as 2016 could be safely assumed to be too late. However this wouldn't eliminate characters like Sylux who have been in games before but could still be added as promotion for his supposed expanded role in MP4.
- Sakurai, not wanting to make the same mistake, decides to reach out to the developers and works closely with them to make sure he has a good idea of how the character would work. This would be further aided by the fact that with the way DLC appears to be working, with them not starting work on the DLC until the game is out, they would be able to wait and start working on the character until after they have made their debut or at least soon will.
Personally I think that I could see either being possible. However I will add that while he may feel remorse for Roy's portrayal he did after that design Greninja using pre-production designs of the character without knowing how his final design would work, this is why he uses water kunai and his water shuriken doesn't work exactly like it does in game.
Also when looking at the case of Rex, I've said it elsewhere but I think XC2 caught everyone off guard and that no one expected the game to do that well so they wouldn't have considered saving a DLC slot for someone from that game like they might for games they anticipate to do well like Fire Emblem/Metroid/Pokemon.
Thing is, development on each new fighter seems to be so complex and require so much scheduling that it's very difficult to adapt to changes in design or characteristics on the fly. Details on Roy surely changed further back than just a couple months before FE6's delay, but the Melee team
still wasn't able to take those changes into account. This is a logistical issue we're considering here, a time and workload issue, and so no amount of working closely with the team of another game would solve that if there simply isn't the spare time or manpower available.
Also, the concept art
was Greninja's final design, the water swords were actually used in the anime a few times, and Sakurai probably had more details on hand than
just one sheet of concept art because why from a design standpoint would you rely so much on such limited information for such a major undertaking? And considering Nintendo hit the reset button on Metroid Prime 4's development, I'd think Sylux is probably out of the running for the time being since the thing that'd have made him relevant might not even be finished until 2021 now.
I know that the whole Mii swordfighter and Duck Hunt crashing thing is up in the air as to whether or not they were used for newcomers, but i can't believe i didn't see it before: if this was all true and the rumors about Erdrick were true, then why did they pick mii swordfighter instead of someone with a shield like Young Link or regular Link. It's just a thought.
Well, it seems like the actual character model isn't as important to reference as the general build, hurtboxes, and very basic animations are. Adding a shield to the model wouldn't be
too much of a hassle since it's just a piece of equipment that moves when the bearer's arm does. And Young Link in particular wouldn't be a good reference point anyway due to other reasons. Why would they create a character who is an adult and has an adult build--albeit one with potentially super-deformed traits--by referencing the model of a character with a child's build and proportions?
That said, they
could still use someone other than Mii Swordfighter as a base--regular Link comes to mind, who even has a shield too--which is why we should keep looking into this to be sure if it means anything.
I didn't know you were here on Smashboards. Can you make a concept video on Porky please. I don't know whether you think he is likely or not, but can you at least make a video for him?
Forgot to respond to this earlier.
Unfortunately, these kinds of suggestions are...a bit of a gray area. I don't just pull these character concepts out of the ether; I need to have an idea of how I want to work them and how they could best stand out. Who knows in the long term, but I cannot promise anything in the near future. Sorry, but that's all I can really say for now.