So, with the talk shifted to this potential Direct this week, there's something that was brought up elsewhere that has flown under the radar, and it may give us an idea of which characters are available for DLC.
As you guys know, Roy was picked out back in Melee mid-development to add as essentially an echo fighter before the term was invented. His debut game, Fire Emblem: The Binding Blade, was
itself in development at the same time, meaning Sakurai had to work off design notes and the like. Then things got further complicated when Roy's game, which was originally planned to be out a few months before Melee, went through delays, eventually not hitting shelves until
after Melee.
But what doesn't get talked about much, and something our own
Garteam
pointed out a couple weeks ago, is that some major details on Roy as a character were changed in that timespan. To where Roy is actually portrayed
wrong in Melee--the loud, hot-blooded fare you're probably used to is actually nothing like he is in his actual game, where he's more calm and intelligent yet thrown into a leadership position he has no experience with due to circumstance. Roy's entire personality changed while his game was still in development, but Melee was not able to adjust in time. Sakurai has even expressed regret over getting Roy wrong back then.
Why does that matter? Because
this perfectly explains why Sakurai prefers not to pull the trigger on brand new characters. He wants to wait and ensure everything about them has been finalized so he doesn't interpret them wrong in Smash! Before now, I'd figured he just wanted to make sure their source games didn't flop and that people would recognize the characters, but this make so much more sense from a developer standpoint! It also ties neatly into Rex not making Ultimate's base roster due to the cutoff point being so early this time around...and potentially why Lycanroc may have also been stuck waiting.
"But wait", you may think, "what about Corrin?" That's the thing: remember how we found data after the fact that suggested development on Corrin began later than the rest of Smash 4's DLC, starting only around Spring 2015? Remember how Fire Emblem Fates debuted in Japan in June 2015, just a few months later? In other words, when dev work started on Corrin for Smash, Fates was either wrapping up development or had already gone gold. Everything about Corrin
would have been finalized by then.
So how does that matter at all for Ultimate's DLC?
Well...remember how Sakurai said back in November that this wave's characters were officially locked in? If he
isn't lying--and, well, he's not the type to outright lie--then these characters were chosen circa November 2018.
So if he doesn't want to jump the gun and end up portraying another character wrong like he did with Roy in Melee, and this wave's DLC picks were finalized three months ago...then
how likely is it that we'll be seeing anyone from games debuting in 2019? Even the Three Houses crew could be on shakier ground than I initially thought, and any games set for the
end of the year would be at risk of the same types of changes that the Smash team would not be able to take into account.
Wouldn't you say they'd be more likely to look at 2017 and 2018 for first party characters then?
I don't know if it means anything for us, but it's potentially a very big deal, and yet it seems like most speculators are already convinced any first party newcomers
must be advertising ploys for games not yet released. Remember when the common narrative was that the likes of Rex and Spring Man would be too late for the base roster? Why has the community done a complete 180 now despite their original theory ending up true?