For the people who think that MKLeo won this tournament with a mid tier--maybe you should re-evaluate Byleth. I think there was in fact a world where Byleth was low or mid tier, but this is not that world, and I'd like to go over why.
First of all, let's get this out of the way--looking at those sets and thinking that Byleth-Diddy is an OK matchup for Byleth is a shallow conclusion (like thinking that Richter-Luigi isn't that bad just because Elegant beat Dom). Yes, Leo won, but he wasn't reacting in the neutral--those were predictions. Leo was predicting all those monkey flips, dash d-tilts, banana tosses, everything. When we talk about matchup ratios we don't assume that one player has a significant read on the other, but this was absolutely the case here. Several times, I saw Leo actually initiate retreating full hop 40 frames or more in advance of Tweek starting the Monkey Flip--because that's what it takes for Byleth to position properly for the matchup. Those sets were an incredible display of skill and careful study of the opponent, but should be viewed within that context.
Second, despite the bad Diddy matchup, I think Byleth is somewhere in the top 20 characters.
The best thing about Byleth is advantage state that you just can't contest. You're not fighting back against a Byleth up-airing you, you're not reversaling him after he up-bs you (you just have to get away), you're not doing anything but airdodging and fastfalling when he ledgetrumps you. Byleth in advantage just gets to run train for free. It's similar to Sephiroth and Min Min.
But it gets even better! Sephiroth and Min Min have a hard time killing you directly with their neutral tools. They have to get you into a bad position first. But not Byleth. Byleth can kill you from a ledgetrap or an edgeguard just like those other guys can, but Byleth can also get a confirm. n-air to dash attack, d-tilt to up-air, up-b to imagination (even with proper DI), up-smash OOS on a whiff--Byleth has Ganon-level kill power, but confirms his kills from safe neutral moves, much like Diddy and Sheik.
The second best thing about Byleth is disadvantage state. Yes, you read that correctly. This is something that I think Byleth didn't quite have when he was released, but that he's actually really hard to keep trapped at the ledge and to edgeguard. The up-b and side-b buffs gave Byleth legitimate stalling tools at ledge. Part of the reason that Leo had a chance against Tweek was that Byleth just ignored most of Diddy's ledgetrapping with various mixups. Those few frames make a huge difference and I noticed that sometimes Tweek was a hair off from being able to react or prevent Leo from simply snapping to ledge. Ledge is such a relatively safe position for Byleth that Byleth can escape a juggle attempt by drifting offstage and up-bing to ledge. It's really actually pretty hard to edgeguard Byleth's new frame-10 aerial up-b and side-b is "only" 62 frames given how huge it is.
The up-b buff was also relevant for giving Byleth a scary OOS besides n-air, of course, and the neutral merit isn't lost on me, but the advantage and disadvantage are really what enable Byleth to shine as much as he does in Leo's hands.
This is the one time where I don't have much to say about the neutral. In neutral, Leo just mixes up different timings and spacings of n-air up close and spaces f-air/b-air when he can get away with it. That's really all there is to the neutral for this character. The depth isn't there, but then again, it doesn't need to be--the risk is low enough and the reward is high enough that Byleth could be even worse in neutral, as slow as molasses, and still 3-stock Tweek.
I mean, Byleth is doing 20-40% per neutral win, killing you pre-100%, and then limiting damage taken to 15-20% lower range, 30-40% upper range, without getting edgeguarded or f-smashed at ledge for early kills, finally dying at 120%. That is an insane risk:reward ratio. If those numbers don't pass your "possibly top 20" smell test, what does?
Leo's playing a good character--there's no doubt about that. The question really was, "is he skilled enough to overcome Byleth's few really bad matchups?" And the answer, to even my surprise, is yes, he is.
's been messing people up post-quarantine for a while now, it's just that he's always been a bit "under the radar" in terms of Smash talk lol.
