So I think you are correct on the pillars of your thesis here:
- In this primordial phase, a lot--more than usual--of our discussion here ends up being taken by the noise of echoing opinions, which tend to skew towards a lower tier of play.
- Online play correlates with this, and is the source of a lot of low-quality data.
- Online play is, due to its increased base lag, a very different game.
On all these points and largely what you are pushing for in posting such, we agree. I'm about to go off "disagreeing" on a tangent, but it's not really debating these key things you were actually talking about, so I wanted this preface to make that clear.
One of the biggest problems with competitive discussion (and tier lists in specific) is that we don't have a good language for levels of play--and all of this is meaningless without that context. Sure, we make vague allusions to "top level" or "high level" or "low level", but hell if anyone has any sort of consensus as to what percentiles those actually refer to.
(Even "percentiles" are wonky--percent of what? All smash players? All game owners? All "competitive players"--whatever the hell
that means?)
While "foolish freshmen" only talk about the level of play they share with their cousins, the enlightened "smug sophomores" get hard on talking as if only the absolute top level matters, as if matches between 2017 ZeRo and Leo are the only true manifestation of smash and everyone else is a pathetic poser for even thinking they had the right to boot up a console. The truth is it's sort of useless, or at least dubiously accurate, to talk about generalized character performance (beyond pure results and trends) at any level more narrow than, I dunno, top 100. Past that point, you're really just talking about
players, at least as much as characters anyway.
I think we--including me--are naturally predisposed to talk about "our level" (normally one just above what we normally actually play at) and are way too quick to dismiss even slightly lower levels of play. Part of this is because this is such a high-skill game, that even slightly lower skills can seen very clearly different. It's a steep mountain, so to speak. I tend to talk about what I'd guess to be the top 1000 level or so--I always reasoned based on results that I was probably in the top 1000 Smash 4 players or top 500 Brawl players. (Which fit, because Brawl's central-core competitive scene was about half the size.)
I think many posts in this thread are speaking to the same level. We're having the same conversation. But then some people are talking in a top 10k context, or even a 100k context, and imo it would be arrogant and exclusionary to tell them to shut up, and insist that we are only going to talk about things that don't relate to then. Unfortunately, one does not become good purely by shutting up and listening to the wise sages who are better at video games.
Which brings us to online.
So, full disclaimer, I am what you could label "anti-online". I will get uppity and refuse to play fighting games on a laggy TV, so why would I tolerate playing in something far worse? In the past 11 years, I have played Brawl online once, Smash 4 online twice, and Ultimate a total of 4 times now--mostly due to lack a humans around this last month for me, leaving me like a desperate junkie. My point is, I have a very low opinion of online play in general.
A TV with one frame of lag will introduce a very small amount of distortion to the results of games, including variance. A 67th percentile player who plays a lag-friendly character might show consistent wins on a 68th percentile player. But the distortion is somewhat small--he won't beat a 80th percentile player--and even the most lag sensitive player/character should be able to demolish modestly weaker opponents.
The distortion caused by online's level of lag is bigger. Not tiny, not gargantuan. It just is what it is. The better player is still going to win most of the time, but if you were to take it too seriously, sure: past a certain level the distortion is enough that the correlation with offline play starts to diverge into that distortion. I would blindly put this cut-off point at around 3%. (Which happens to be roughly the Elite Smash qualification, for whatever that's worth)
In other words, if you do the math, I'm
admitting saying that online can still manage to accurately portray top 100k level play, which
is a reasonable thing to discuss and is a level of play that many non-terrible posts here are talking about. It's definitely the weaker end of what we'd call on-topic for this forum--this isn't the place to talk about how broken Kirby Stone is--but it's within the bounds of having a conversation.
Bottom line, it's okay to talk about online experiences here. And this is me, Mr. Hates-Online, telling you it's okay. But
do pause and acknowledge, both when deciding if you want to make or post and while writing it, what level of play your experience is speaking from. Understand clearly that if online lag is involved, there is a pretty low ceiling in effect. But some of my observations come from playing against "top 100k" level players, so online is no different. While there have been a few lackluster online-inspired posts here, a few people like Shaya have found valuable talking points from their online forays. So in that light, keep it coming.
I can't believe I'm writing a post defending online play though. Good heavens. Stay in school and play offline, kids.