Official Competitive Character Impressions 2.0

[Deleted member]

Hm, to stay on topic, character competitiveness isn't something that holds dear to me anymore opposed to a more youthful timeline. I'm just a random selector that prefers to take the long way around by getting the most out of the fighting games, as an effort to sustain the genre's life for me personally in order to not exile it again.

Though, in distant past, many players, regardless if they were prominent or not, told me that this route will forever hurt me, because they rather to see me with a more consistent winning record when I went to tournaments. However, if I'm going to win, it will be in my own way, and the convenient end result isn't everything and lost it's appeal to me as I've gotten older.

I'm sorry to be off topic, but Emblem Lord, that is a very familiar username to me that I've played frequently against in the early Street Fighter 4 era, and possibly other games prior.

 

[Emblem Lord]

Hm, to stay on topic, character competitiveness isn't something that holds dear to me anymore opposed to a more youthful timeline. I'm just a random selector that prefers to take the long way around by getting the most out of the fighting games, as an effort to sustain the genre's life for me personally in order to not exile it again.

Though, in distant past, many players, regardless if they were prominent or not, told me that this route will forever hurt me, because they rather to see me with a more consistent winning record when I went to tournaments. However, if I'm going to win, it will be in my own way, and the convenient end result isn't everything and lost it's appeal to me as I've gotten older.

I'm sorry to be off topic, but Emblem Lord, that is a very familiar username to me that I've played frequently against in the early Street Fighter 4 era, and possibly other games prior.

Ah.

So you traded blows with this old man?

Although it was years ago, thank you for the games. I am sure I learned alot and I am thankful for any opponent in any game I play. You have my eternal gratitude.

On topic: I was asked to give some insight on ESAM vs Vendetta. So the forum can expect that sometime soon.

 

[Deleted member]

Ah.

So you traded blows with this old man?

Although it was years ago, thank you for the games. I am sure I learned alot and I am thankful for any opponent in any game I play. You have my eternal gratitude.

On topic: I was asked to give some insight on ESAM vs Vendetta. So the forum can expect that sometime soon.

I guess those two player performances kind of inspired me to spend time on Smash more.

Likewise on the compliment. You, Tongari Dan, and Lux forged a foundation for me by pushing, taking my skill, and experience to levels quicker than I've anticipated at the time. Also, I'm mentored alot of players, because of you three and they've eventually caught up with me. I've had you on my friends list before, which my PSN ID was IBJI, formerly BJ on Capcom Unity when the forums were intact. People wanted me to go back to offline tournaments at the time, but that era was both a rush and very dark for me.

I hope to face you someday in Smash for old times sake and maybe revisit the tournament scene, locally at minimum, as a stepping stone or just to have some fun.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Someone combined most of the ZSS players MU chart, and got this

inspired by abat's joint cloud mu chart, here is a combined matchup chart featuring the opinions of many high level zss players, including:

sharp
juice
jumpsteady
doorstop
bankai
webbjp
and others! (full list in replies)

*easiest in each tier is on the left pic.twitter.com/unodGjm0Xh

— vic ⚡️ (@Victini_10) May 18, 2021

 

[Emblem Lord]

My thoughts on ESAM vs Vendetta in grand finals of SWT Southeast.

So before I even get into it I just want to point out that I do think ESAM may have a bit of a mental block against Vendetta. On his stream during the matches he was mentioning how he was not sure how to counter Vendetta. I mean the lockdown era for gaming has been unique in that we get real time feedback from players while participating in tournaments. Their thoughts, feelings, strategies, and it's all quite fascinating as well as insightful. If nothing else we see ESAM does not sleep on Ryu.

Game 1: ESAM starts off very strong, but an early SD really screws up his momentum and he never fully recovers from that loss. Still we do see some cool interactions. Both characters have the tools to naturally power through each other's zoning. Ryu with his nair can attempt to zone break through Tjolts, and Pika can aerial through Hadoukens and with decent timing can even jump over grounded hadoukens while attacking at the same time using SH aeriels. ESAM does an overall solid job of smothering Vendetta and putting him in disadvantage. When Vendetta tries to create space with movement ESAM chased hiim down. However, when Vendetta rushed with nair the party got started dang near every time.

It really cannot be understated just how much work Ryu's nair does in this match and basically all his matches. Even a bad nair on block will usually put you at -3. A perfect nair gives you -1. So anytime you see ESAM block a Nair and get caught in the dtilt mash those are real frame traps. It can lose to jump as we all saw, but it's still a scary situation. A mistimed option will get you comboed. Speaking of combos, Ryu ended most of his in Shakunetsu Hadouken. Solid damage and stage carry. Pikachu was often on the ledge, which is not a horrible position for him compared to many other characters. But we did see Ryu's nair stuff Quick Attack clean. So it's not like Pikachu has no worried if he is on the ledge. I also think this is preferable to ending combos in Tatsu vs Pikachu because landing traps are not really a thing vs Pikachu anyway. Ryu should be ending combos in tatsu to attempt to kill when Shoryuken will not reach. Which he did use to take a stock from Pika in this game. We also see the threat of Ryu on block. Collarbone Breaker does insane shield damage and Pika lost a stock after being on the recieving end of it. Overall, I feel like that first SD really ruined ESAM's momentum. Overall I do not think he played poorly. I just think that SD plus Pikachu losing the war of attrition cost ESAM the game.

Game 2: ESAM switches to Mii Brawler. I think I get why he did it. I don't think he had faith in Pikachu as much and wanted an easier counter to dtilt pressure on block. Mii Brawler Thrust Uppercut is Frame 3 and has arm intangibility. So it can blow throw rapid tilt pressure consistently. Mii Brawler can also use it similarly to how Ken uses his shoryu. To trap landings and threaten air space. Conversions off uair can also lead to a up b ender or a mix-up depending on DI. We see alot of back and forth in this gameplay. Honestly though I was shocked at the level of risks both players take especially ESAM with that up b. That said he was not often punished for extending. However at one point Vendetta catches on to the up b reversals. He did dtilt canceled into Focus. ESAM does his up b and Ryu takes the hit. Upon landing ESAM eats a conversion into shoryu and dies. Very strong adapatation from Vendetta and it goes to show that there are yomi layers to Shoto pressure.

To ESAM's credit, we see alot of EXCELLENT footsies and spacing. Really nice dtilt usage into fair and uair conversions. He also uses that nair to great effect. I think if Esam had edgegaurded a bit harder offstage rather than relying on Shot Put, and maybe toned down the hunger for up b just a bit then he probably would have won. It was a close set regardless. Vendetta ending it with a yolo kara tatsu was a pure gamble. Had it been blocked it would have been over. Both players took a few substantial risks in this match. Vendetta's just paid off more in the end.

Game 3: Another switch by ESAM. This time it's Min Min on deck. I will say up front I feel Min Min has the advantage esepcially online. Ryu cannot zone her and has to work to get in with limited mobility. However, we do see Ryu's nair put in alot of work in so far as not only for creating pressure, but for allowing him to clash with Min Min's buttons. Once Ryu is in though it's a different ball game. She is very weak on defense. Her Up b gains invul on frame 8. Not quite good enough in dealing with shoto pressure. Jump from shield into Nair is a 13 frame option. You don't want to rely on that. So most of the time her best option is to block, wait and choose when to roll carefully or jump away. So once Ryu had her blocking he was in control. Vendetta had a very consistent gameplan in this match. Use conversions into Shakunetsu to push Min Min to the ledge. Ledgetrap her as long as possible to build up damage. Look for a conversion to end the stock. Not an easy task consideringher insane stage control, but he pulled out a win. On the last stock we can see how the constant shield pressure from Ryu has ravaged Min Min's shield. She can no longer avoid a shield poking dtilt. Ryu converts into a shoryu to take the set.

Final thoughts: Keep Ryu out and punish his openings or you will die. It is that simple. So many times we saw Vendetta being contained, but not being killed. So Ryu's rage just kept building. Rage Ryu was killing ESAM's characters around 100% with Shoryu and around 120% with Tatsu. Ryu only needs to win a few neutral interactions to get someone to these kill percents. And his combo enders automatically help him set-up for a strong disadvantage state. We were able to see the buffs that Ryu got in 7.0.0 on full display. Namely the down smash cancel which was used as a very fast punish (d-smash is frame 5 and does 20% when fresh) and canceled into Shakunetsu for decent damage. And we saw the Kara cancel into Tatsu which won Vendetta game two. I would not call the kara cancels meta defining, but it gives Shotos a pretty strong burst option which is very nice. The d-smash cancel however is amazing and makes shotos far more threatening during footsies and neutral interactions.

Overall I do not think ESAM was outclassed by any means. A few critical errors and wrong guesses cost him the set. It happens. He still took second and he qualified for the next SWT event regardless. He is a very strong player. We all know this.

It is exciting to see Ryu and Ken do well at this event to me for two reasons.

1) Shotos are nerfed online. Although Ken has a very high win rate online, I feel this is largely in part due to his dedicated base that is laser focused on pushing the character. Ryu lacks Ken's results overall, no doubt due to his best friend being considered more hype and his combo game being more attractive as well. Granted Ken took most of the wins in this tournament for Vendetta, but Ryu taking grand finals in an environment that does not favor him is great news for the character's potential. And speaking of potential.

2) The general shoto meta still has not standardized several gameplay concepts and best practices. Ken is further along than Ryu, but even Vendetta who is the best shoto at this point was not doing certain actions. No utilt to discourage jumping out of offensive block pressure. Not much B-reverse Focus to avoid juggle situations. Very little grabbing. Block pressure was pretty standard aside from the occasional mix-up. Not much Roundhouse to check the air space in front of Ryu. This to me is what is so awesome. There is still ALOT to optimize when it comes to Shotos meta. Vendetta won a qualifier with solid play and awareness. He beat some of the best and he STILL has room to grow not just as a player, but the characters themselves can also grow. As hype as it was seeing Vendetta win, my mind always wandered to the thought of "just how strong will he be once he optimizes and masters other options?"

It's an exciting time for shoto players certainly. Do I think it will shake the entire meta? No. For one thing I think Ken by design does not have real winning matches. His tools do not really function that way. But to see what they can do at a high level and how their game can still win at that level is really cool.

 

[The_Bookworm]

My thoughts on ESAM vs Vendetta in grand finals of SWT Southeast.

So before I even get into it I just want to point out that I do think ESAM may have a bit of a mental block against Vendetta. On his stream during the matches he was mentioning how he was not sure how to counter Vendetta. I mean the lockdown era for gaming has been unique in that we get real time feedback from players while participating in tournaments. Their thoughts, feelings, strategies, and it's all quite fascinating as well as insightful. If nothing else we see ESAM does not sleep on Ryu.

Game 1: ESAM starts off very strong, but an early SD really screws up his momentum and he never fully recovers from that loss. Still we do see some cool interactions. Both characters have the tools to naturally power through each other's zoning. Ryu with his nair can attempt to zone break through Tjolts, and Pika can aerial through Hadoukens and with decent timing can even jump over grounded hadoukens while attacking at the same time using SH aeriels. ESAM does an overall solid job of smothering Vendetta and putting him in disadvantage. When Vendetta tries to create space with movement ESAM chased hiim down. However, when Vendetta rushed with nair the party got started dang near every time.

It really cannot be understated just how much work Ryu's nair does in this match and basically all his matches. Even a bad nair on block will usually put you at -3. A perfect nair gives you -1. So anytime you see ESAM block a Nair and get caught in the dtilt mash those are real frame traps. It can lose to jump as we all saw, but it's still a scary situation. A mistimed option will get you comboed. Speaking of combos, Ryu ended most of his in Shakunetsu Hadouken. Solid damage and stage carry. Pikachu was often on the ledge, which is not a horrible position for him compared to many other characters. But we did see Ryu's nair stuff Quick Attack clean. So it's not like Pikachu has no worried if he is on the ledge. I also think this is preferable to ending combos in Tatsu vs Pikachu because landing traps are not really a thing vs Pikachu anyway. Ryu should be ending combos in tatsu to attempt to kill when Shoryuken will not reach. Which he did use to take a stock from Pika in this game. We also see the threat of Ryu on block. Collarbone Breaker does insane shield damage and Pika lost a stock after being on the recieving end of it. Overall, I feel like that first SD really ruined ESAM's momentum. Overall I do not think he played poorly. I just think that SD plus Pikachu losing the war of attrition cost ESAM the game.

Game 2: ESAM switches to Mii Brawler. I think I get why he did it. I don't think he had faith in Pikachu as much and wanted an easier counter to dtilt pressure on block. Mii Brawler Thrust Uppercut is Frame 3 and has arm intangibility. So it can blow throw rapid tilt pressure consistently. Mii Brawler can also use it similarly to how Ken uses his shoryu. To trap landings and threaten air space. Conversions off uair can also lead to a up b ender or a mix-up depending on DI. We see alot of back and forth in this gameplay. Honestly though I was shocked at the level of risks both players take especially ESAM with that up b. That said he was not often punished for extending. However at one point Vendetta catches on to the up b reversals. He did dtilt canceled into Focus. ESAM does his up b and Ryu takes the hit. Upon landing ESAM eats a conversion into shoryu and dies. Very strong adapatation from Vendetta and it goes to show that there are yomi layers to Shoto pressure.

To ESAM's credit, we see alot of EXCELLENT footsies and spacing. Really nice dtilt usage into fair and uair conversions. He also uses that nair to great effect. I think if Esam had edgegaurded a bit harder offstage rather than relying on Shot Put, and maybe toned down the hunger for up b just a bit then he probably would have won. It was a close set regardless. Vendetta ending it with a yolo kara tatsu was a pure gamble. Had it been blocked it would have been over. Both players took a few substantial risks in this match. Vendetta's just paid off more in the end.

Game 3: Another switch by ESAM. This time it's Min Min on deck. I will say up front I feel Min Min has the advantage esepcially online. Ryu cannot zone her and has to work to get in with limited mobility. However, we do see Ryu's nair put in alot of work in so far as not only for creating pressure, but for allowing him to clash with Min Min's buttons. Once Ryu is in though it's a different ball game. She is very weak on defense. Her Up b gains invul on frame 8. Not quite good enough in dealing with shoto pressure. Jump from shield into Nair is a 13 frame option. You don't want to rely on that. So most of the time her best option is to block, wait and choose when to roll carefully or jump away. So once Ryu had her blocking he was in control. Vendetta had a very consistent gameplan in this match. Use conversions into Shakunetsu to push Min Min to the ledge. Ledgetrap her as long as possible to build up damage. Look for a conversion to end the stock. Not an easy task consideringher insane stage control, but he pulled out a win. On the last stock we can see how the constant shield pressure from Ryu has ravaged Min Min's shield. She can no longer avoid a shield poking dtilt. Ryu converts into a shoryu to take the set.

Final thoughts: Keep Ryu out and punish his openings or you will die. It is that simple. So many times we saw Vendetta being contained, but not being killed. So Ryu's rage just kept building. Rage Ryu was killing ESAM's characters around 100% with Shoryu and around 120% with Tatsu. Ryu only needs to win a few neutral interactions to get someone to these kill percents. And his combo enders automatically help him set-up for a strong disadvantage state. We were able to see the buffs that Ryu got in 7.0.0 on full display. Namely the down smash cancel which was used as a very fast punish (d-smash is frame 5 and does 20% when fresh) and canceled into Shakunetsu for decent damage. And we saw the Kara cancel into Tatsu which won Vendetta game two. I would not call the kara cancels meta defining, but it gives Shotos a pretty strong burst option which is very nice. The d-smash cancel however is amazing and makes shotos far more threatening during footsies and neutral interactions.

Overall I do not think ESAM was outclassed by any means. A few critical errors and wrong guesses cost him the set. It happens. He still took second and he qualified for the next SWT event regardless. He is a very strong player. We all know this.

It is exciting to see Ryu and Ken do well at this event to me for two reasons.

1) Shotos are nerfed online. Although Ken has a very high win rate online, I feel this is largely in part due to his dedicated base that is laser focused on pushing the character. Ryu lacks Ken's results overall, no doubt due to his best friend being considered more hype and his combo game being more attractive as well. Granted Ken took most of the wins in this tournament for Vendetta, but Ryu taking grand finals in an environment that does not favor him is great news for the character's potential. And speaking of potential.

2) The general shoto meta still has not standardized several gameplay concepts and best practices. Ken is further along than Ryu, but even Vendetta who is the best shoto at this point was not doing certain actions. No utilt to discourage jumping out of offensive block pressure. Not much B-reverse Focus to avoid juggle situations. Very little grabbing. Block pressure was pretty standard aside from the occasional mix-up. Not much Roundhouse to check the air space in front of Ryu. This to me is what is so awesome. There is still ALOT to optimize when it comes to Shotos meta. Vendetta won a qualifier with solid play and awareness. He beat some of the best and he STILL has room to grow not just as a player, but the characters themselves can also grow. As hype as it was seeing Vendetta win, my mind always wandered to the thought of "just how strong will he be once he optimizes and masters other options?"

It's an exciting time for shoto players certainly. Do I think it will shake the entire meta? No. For one thing I think Ken by design does not have real winning matches. His tools do not really function that way. But to see what they can do at a high level and how their game can still win at that level is really cool.

Something important to note: these two already fought in winner's finals.

In games 1 & 2, it was vs . ESAM won game 1 and Vendetta won game 2.
In game 3, ESAM counterpicked to , in which he lost. In game 4, he counterpicked to , which unlike in grand finals, was successful in putting down Ryu.
In game 5, Vendetta went to win the set.

 

[ProfessorVincent]

Why would Ken not have real winning matchups, though? The character is mad strong!

 

[Emblem Lord]

Why would Ken not have real winning matchups, though? The character is mad strong!

Does Ken naturally neutralize or diminish other characters? Does he have tools that invalidate other characters? For example slower characters naturally struggle vs Chrom and Roy. Chroy has insane mobily, speed, and alot of reach. It makes sense that slow characters would struggle with that.

Does Ken function in that same manner? Does he naturally shutdown certain archetypes?

Or....Does he kinda want to do the same thing regardless and he more or less forces himself in and also focuses on whiff punishes?

Does he FORCE anyone to play his game or force them to adopt a completely different strategy?

I think Ken possibly has some winning matches, but it has more to do with what those characters lack rather than Ken invalidating them or diminishing the usefulness of their tools.

However, this is simply what I think and feel based on my view of fighting games.

My word is not gospel.

 

[RonNewcomb]

Something important to note: these two already fought in winner's finals.

In games 1 & 2, it was vs . ESAM won game 1 and Vendetta won game 2.
In game 3, ESAM counterpicked to , in which he lost. In game 4, he counterpicked to , which unlike in grand finals, was successful in putting down Ryu.
In game 5, Vendetta went to win the set.

Yeah I felt that by the time grands started Esam was kinda already done, and that near immediate SD sealed the deal.

I'm just surprised he didn't stick with Pika more, especially in WF. The offstage carry was real, and tatsu is spike bait. I'm really impressed with vendetta's recovery.

Minmin is a better character choice but she didn't look fully baked when he finally did.

Samus seemed an ok choice but where were the zairs?

 

[Emblem Lord]

Yeah I felt that by the time grands started Esam was kinda already done, and that near immediate SD sealed the deal.

I'm just surprised he didn't stick with Pika more, especially in WF. The offstage carry was real, and tatsu is spike bait. I'm really impressed with vendetta's recovery.

Minmin is a better character choice but she didn't look fully baked when he finally did.

Samus seemed an ok choice but where were the zairs?

I think with a bit more training and understanding any of ESAM's characters could have taken the set.

He seems to have the least faith in Pika. But that's fine. Min Min certainly has all the tools to win the shoto match.

If he wasn't Zairing with Samus it could just be lack of knowledge or old habits interfering. Nothing a bit of training and some adjustment won't fix.

 

[RonNewcomb]

I think with a bit more training and understanding any of ESAM's characters could have taken the set.

He seems to have the least faith in Pika. Bit that's fine. Min Min certainly has all the tools to win the shoto match.

If he wasn't Zairing with Samus it could just be lack of knowledge or old habits interfering. Nothing a bit of training and some adjustment won't fix.

I agree. I daresay Pika loses that MU, but it's his best character and he's the more experienced player so it was still doable even then.

 

[blackghost]

but overall if pika is truly as busted as some claim he should be able to pull these off and you CERTAINLY shouldn't get forced off the character.

Does Ken naturally neutralize or diminish other characters? Does he have tools that invalidate other characters? For example slower characters naturally struggle vs Chrom and Roy. Chroy has insane mobily, speed, and alot of reach. It makes sense that slow characters would struggle with that.

Does Ken function in that same manner? Does he naturally shutdown certain archetypes?

Or....Does he kinda want to do the same thing regardless and he more or less forces himself in and also focuses on whiff punishes?

Does he FORCE anyone to play his game or force them to adopt a completely different strategy?

I think Ken possibly has some winning matches, but it has more to do with what those characters lack rather than Ken invalidating them or diminishing the usefulness of their tools.

However, this is simply what I think and feel based on my view of fighting games.

My word is not gospel.

this is a line of thinking that is common in SF and marvel games. idk how common that view is in the smash community. personally, I subscribe to it.

 

[TennisBall]

With SWT Northeast today I expect plenty of upsets, lots of hype matches, a few tragic cases of not qualifying.

Just one more than offline.

 

[RonNewcomb]

Hbox is surfing twitch finding the players streams. https://www.twitch.tv/hungrybox

 

[Ziodyne 21]

Peanut had one hell of a losers bracket run but sadly got eliminated by Light. His matches were hype to watch even if most of his stream commentary was complaining about the characters he was up against. Lol he even complained when the he faced ended up losing to due a combination of Wi-Fi and Lylat Jank. But the DK MU is legit terrible for Mac.

But I guess as Hungrybox said. If you decide to solo main you do have somewhat of a right to complain. Lol

 

[SKX31]

SWT NA Northeast Top 32 (streamed tomorrow):

WB:

Tweek vs. Quidd
Angel vs. WaDi
Syrup vs CaKe
Ned vs. Mr. E
Dabuz vs. Ravenking
Desmona vs. LeoN
Riddles vs Vapor
LA GRIMACE (Upset SuperGirlKels, Sytonix and Pokelam in a row) vs. NAKAT

LB:

ATATA vs. Stealth_Pilot
MrZercon vs. WebbJP
Quark vs. Amante (Seed 286)
Armadillo vs. Pokelam (It's kinda bonkers that he, Light, SuperGirlKels and Peanut wound up fighting for this very specific LB slot.)
LingLing vs. Riley
Sinji vs. Suarez
Mj vs. naitosharp (Outlasted the guy that sent him to LB)
Sytonix vs. BlueJay

 

[KirbySquad101]

Notable players in LCQ:
Light (11th seed) out at 33rd against NAKAT and Pokelam
Marss (DQ'd out of the OQ at the start to begin his run at the LCQ)
Cosmos (13th seed) out at 129th against Micro and TheMightyDiagla
Tilde (15th seed) out at 33rd against Vapor and Amante
DM (19th seed) out at 65th against Mj and Sword
Mabel (31st seed) out at 129th against ID10T and HensonLedo
AxiomXL (20th seed) out at 129th against Kurshuan and AoS
9superpie (18th seed) out 33rd against Ravenking and DQ'd against LingLing

Pretty much the bloodbath everyone was expecting. lol Cosmos got upsetted in an even worse fashion than what happened at EVO, and Light fared a little better until he ended up getting swatted early on by NAKAT and Pokelam just before he reached top 32.

 

[RonNewcomb]

getting swatted early on by NAKAT and Pokelam just before he reached top 32.

And OMG good stuff to nakat; his Pichu was at over 200% when Light finally lost his last stock. I didn't think it was physically possible for a Pichu to live that long!

 

[DougEfresh]

SWT NA Northeast Top 32 (streamed tomorrow):

WB:

Tweek vs. Quidd
Angel vs. WaDi
Syrup vs CaKe
Ned vs. Mr. E
Dabuz vs. Ravenking
Desmona vs. LeoN
Riddles vs Vapor
LA GRIMACE (Upset SuperGirlKels, Sytonix and Pokelam in a row) vs. NAKAT

LB:

ATATA vs. Stealth_Pilot
MrZercon vs. WebbJP
Quark vs. Amante (Seed 286)
Armadillo vs. Pokelam (It's kinda bonkers that he, Light, SuperGirlKels and Peanut wound up fighting for this very specific LB slot.)
LingLing vs. Riley
Sinji vs. Suarez
Mj vs. naitosharp (Outlasted the guy that sent him to LB)
Sytonix vs. BlueJay

Exciting stuff seeing my man Armadillo and his making it fairly deep into this SWT regional qualifier so far. Still a ton of great players to get through, but don't be surprised if you see him make one hell of a run in loser's.

I've said a little bit earlier this year about how he's began to make a big splash in the smash scene taking out some massive household names in big wifi tourneys like juicebox, galaxy gambit × collision, etc., and made numerous posts here explaining Lucario in various ways, but I seriously recommend people check him out tomorrow to see how the character should be played in Ultimate. Armadillo just knows what makes him tick, with a lot of flash in his playstyle that's fun af to watch and also effective between movement, combo game, confirms, and aggressive edgeguards and call outs . He both knows how to use aura to snowball a lead in his favor, and to comeback from precarious situations, making him a very legitimate and formidable bracket threat.

And even if he doesn't make the regional qualifier for SWT NA NE, keep a lookout for him once offline majors become a thing again. The guy's only 17, so he has a ton of room to grow as a player even though he's already very talented.

 

[DiddyK0ng]

Exciting stuff seeing my man Armadillo and his making it fairly deep into this SWT regional qualifier so far. Still a ton of great players to get through, but don't be surprised if you see him make one hell of a run in loser's.

I've said a little bit earlier this year about how he's began to make a big splash in the smash scene taking out some massive household names in big wifi tourneys like juicebox, galaxy gambit × collision, etc., and made numerous posts here explaining Lucario in various ways, but I seriously recommend people check him out tomorrow to see how the character should be played in Ultimate. Armadillo just knows what makes him tick, with a lot of flash in his playstyle that's fun af to watch and also effective between movement, combo game, confirms, and aggressive edgeguards and call outs . He both knows how to use aura to snowball a lead in his favor, and to comeback from precarious situations, making him a very legitimate and formidable bracket threat.

And even if he doesn't make the regional qualifier for SWT NA NE, keep a lookout for him once offline majors become a thing again. The guy's only 17, so he has a ton of room to grow as a player even though he's already very talented.

Hadn't heard of him, did a very quick research on him, 35 small-medium offline tourneys, none won:

https://smashdata.gg/smash/ultimate/player/Armadillo?id=445529&online=False

twitter shows some screenshots where he's been toxic on smash gg:

With his attitude and results he won't make a losers run like larry lurr did, but then again rivers the diddy kong qualified despite having a poor attitude too, so we shall see!

 

[RonNewcomb]

Hadn't heard of him, did a very quick research on him, 35 small-medium offline tourneys, none won:

https://smashdata.gg/smash/ultimate/player/Armadillo?id=445529&online=False

twitter shows some screenshots where he's been toxic on smash gg:

With his attitude and results he won't make a losers run like larry lurr did, but then again rivers the diddy kong qualified despite having a poor attitude too, so we shall see!

Who are you with your brand new smashboards account made less than an hour ago?

 

[Thinkaman]

As promised, a recap of all SWT 2021 qualifiers by character. (Warning, I am only considering what I judge to be mains, even when it makes little sense to do so, and I am giving the deepest look at Mexico/Europe/Japan/NA because this is unweighted. I mention a few high-placing unusual character picks from other regions + secondaries at the end.)

Format:

1234|HHHH
5677|HHHH
9999|PPPP
DDDD|PPPP
[also qualified]
(D-13, H-17, P-25)

Mexico
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[]

Europe
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[]

Japan
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[]

NA Southwest
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[]

NA Northwest
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[]

NA Southeast
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[]

NA Northeast
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[]


Qualified: (including 7th and 9th place in Europe)





7th:
9th:
13th:
17th:
25th:

Prominent qualifiers from other regions, or prominent secondaries of qualifying players:
and if you count MKLeo

Otherwise missing AFAIK:

 

[DougEfresh]

Hadn't heard of him, did a very quick research on him, 35 small-medium offline tourneys, none won:

https://smashdata.gg/smash/ultimate/player/Armadillo?id=445529&online=False

twitter shows some screenshots where he's been toxic on smash gg:

With his attitude and results he won't make a losers run like larry lurr did, but then again rivers the diddy kong qualified despite having a poor attitude too, so we shall see!

I mean, of course we'll have to see. And sure, he hasn't made big waves at offline majors yet, but he's only just made a name for himself since the very beginning of this year: he got 4th out of 512 (iirc) at juicebox 24, beating Wadi, Dabuz, MVD, and a relatively close set against Ravenking if memory serves, and while he hasn't won anything yet, he's still gotten solid placings at pretty competitive events.

I get that offline A/S tier tourneys are the gold standard if we're gonna be all "muh results," but I genuinely think the kid has improved a lot in recent months even online...and okay, there's nothing new about smash players being toxic at least from time to time, especially at the ripe old age of 17 lol. By the time offline majors are likely to be safe to compete in again on a national scale, Armadillo may be in a better position to travel to such events to show what he's really capable of and he's still managed well despite how limiting online is both in general and for Lucario.

Whatever though, I just think it's cool to see a good player pushing the character I main similar to how you feel about Rivers and Tweek pushing Diddy Kong

 

[Thinkaman]

At this point, the top 6 characters in the SWT at the qualifying level are almost certainly




Today's results are likely to boost Min Min and ROB's lead, but the others will be unaffected.

I'm going to argue that there is a somewhat clear-cut gap between Min Min/ROB and these other 4 multi-qualifiers.

didn't just dominate the very top (qualifying players), he dominated at every level of high competitive play. Across the 7 biggest qualifiers, an additional 12 ROB mains made top 32. ROB was the only character to make top 32 in every region.

's top performers also did very well, and was present in every region except NA Southeast. Min Min's results were clustered at the top, but there were still 6 other Min Min mains in top 32s. It's important to note that not only did Min Min and ROB have the most players who qualified, but all of those players soundly qualified. (Not one was on the edge of qualifying or not.)

The same cannot be said for , each of whom had a qualifer right on the edge. (Perfectly normal) technically avoids this yet has a lower average and peak result than all of these characters, with just a 4th, 7th, and LCQ win. (Based on my view of seeds, at least 20 other characters are more likely to make the SWT Finals than Palutena, including all 5 discussed here.) And these 4 characters, surprisingly, only had 4/2/3/3 other players in top 32s, missing entirely from 4/4/3/3 of the 7 major regions.

This is not exceptional among characters in the broader "qualifying tier." For contrast, was a factor in 5 regions, with an equivalent 6 total players. is in a roughly similar boat. And had a whopping 9 players across 6 regions, second only to ROB and Min Min!

If you ran this "experiment" again, I think it's a safe bet that Min Min and ROB's qualifying results wouldn't change much. But the tier below them would need a repeat amount of luck on their side to get this level of presence--I think their results are best grouped with the other qualifiers, not that of ROB/Min Min or even a borderline between the two tiers.

Edit:
As a post-script, ROB dominated the qualifiers and top 32s, but is a little weak at the top. He'll have a surprisingly hard time getting even a single player into the SWT Finals, as the character's best offline chance is WaDi--who has to qualify today and then make top 6 in the extremely competitive NA West regional. Epic Gabriel has a shot at the same, but the other 3 qualified ROBs all have a Wi-Fi based pedigree.

Whereas imo 4 of the 5 Min Min players have a good shot at making the cut, all with a higher chance than WaDi.

Edit 2:
One last fun fact, the "lonely at the top" club. The only players who made top 32 with were those that qualified, including both ICs players. (JeJaJeJa's almost solo qualified, and each only had 1 other player besides the one that qualified.)

 

[Thinkaman]

Rare double post for a different topic. (Never do this!)

I want to reflect on "the wall" that we talk about a lot.

Some characters nobody plays, so the results are just whatever the 5 people who play them manage to get. Plant, Meta Knight, Kirby, ICs, Corrin, Lucario, Mewtwo, Sheik, even Peach and Fox to an extent. It's always hard to parse out how much these character aren't picked because they are bad vs. other factors.

Then there are other characters who don't have that problem. Guys like Banjo and DK who get played a lot, even later in bracket, but don't get results. DDD has 27 times as many late-bracket games as Rosalina in the PGStats dataset! But we talk about these characters, most famously Yoshi, as hitting this wall where no matter how many players use the character and no matter how good they do at even very high levels, there is this uber-tier, vaguely around top 500-200 in the world, that their players consistently can't consistently break through.

I compared the peak SWT qualifier placing to the PGStats late-bracket total usage ranks (exempting Sephiroth and Pyra as incomplete data) as a measure of which characters most fell short when we closed in on the mountaintop.

There was a clear separation of 8 who ran into "the wall":

1. (-55)
2. (-44)
3. (-38)
4. (-38)
5. (-37)
6. (-27)
7. (-27)
8. (-20)

From there there's a big gap with vaguer territory on the other side, with characters like who just have more broadly poor stats or who had unusually lackluster SWT performance (in general) compared to typical online.


But those bottom 8 all have solid stats. 5 of them have above-average usage in late bracket, and the other 3 are only barely below. 6 of them have above 50% win-rates in late-bracket, and the other 2 are again only barely below. DDD is the 11th most played character and has a 55% win-rate--higher than any of the top 10 characters above him except Min Min! You could reasonably argue that DDD is a top 10 high level online character! These 8 characters all enjoy some nature of widespread high-level success in online brackets.

Yet here we are, where--to the surprise of no one--these characters are more or less entirely missing from the SWT qualifications from major regions. And they really didn't even come close, unless you count Larry's secondaries. We've got huge representation of players pushing 3 rounds into bracket with DDD (more than double the average!), but every single one of them ultimately busters out while it's the 1 K. Rool player who is going to the regionals. (And both ICs!)

I think everyone believes in "the wall", I don't need to convince you. I'm just here to draw a big red circle around those 8. It's them. Those specific 8 guys, with Banjo as the undisputed most extreme case. (Note that Isabelle isn't a clear #2; if you calcualted this based purely on wins rather than all usage she'd fall below Ganon and Falco.)

(You could make the argument that Lucas is actually outside the cluster, and is just a mundane medicore character who is uniquely unlucky at losing his best would-be representation to the likes of Ness. This is plausible, but hard to verify--and might still suggest that a wall applies to him.)

When you think of the characters who everyone plays but no one can take home the gold with, these are the culprits.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

So Steve still looks very good offline.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Yonni ended up getting 4th at this local. (Yes, you can SDI this, but the player can follow the SDI)

 

[TennisBall]

Not sure about yall but I'm ready for the Marss run, it's crazy he literally has to win like 15+ sets and the majority of people think he will definitely make it, shows how much higher the top of the top is compared to the competition.

It's also crazy how often Rob outputs great results and I'd be hardpressed to find someone who'd put him higher than Top 20 in some Smash discussion places I talk in.

 

[toonito]

Not sure about yall but I'm ready for the Marss run, it's crazy he literally has to win like 15+ sets and the majority of people think he will definitely make it, shows how much higher the top of the top is compared to the competition.

It's also crazy how often Rob outputs great results and I'd be hardpressed to find someone who'd put him higher than Top 20 in some Smash discussion places I talk in.

Somewhat controversially I'm typically a results > theory guy so I find it funny that Pikachu is "busted" with virtually no evidence supporting that while ROB has been successful at various levels of play both on and offline with several mains for the last year and a half and considering him top 10 is heresy. I'd go as far as to believe ROB is top 10 before Pikachu and this is a case of theory not translating into hard evidence which also happened with Pikachu in Smash 4.

That's not to say I can't be wrong I'm just not seeing this doomsday scenario with Pikachu at this time.

 

[Thinkaman]

On the subject of Steve jab, it's actually a somewhat specific window that he gets to do this sort of thing.

Steve jab is a high angle (45 or 57) high knockback growth (134!) move. It's 6 frames advantage at 0% on every opponent, increasing rapidly with damage and rage. (Diamond will see this increase faster.)

It builds up to 19 frames advantage. At 20 frames advantage, which is about 70% on Mario (and much less on lightweights), it will send into tumble, which provides the victim with extra gravity-based knockback.

If Steve catches a high-gravity victim in the % range that gives him 12-19f advantage, a f-smash is possible if they don't SDI ideally. On high-gravity low-weight characters, diamond can make it kill at the high end of this range at the ledge.

(It's much easier to make happen with Gold, but Gold f-smash is far less likely to kill.)

In other words, this is scary, but I have to point out that it involves:

• High-gravity target
• Diamond
• A specific (~35%) range that varies with rage
• And sure, cooperative SDI

 

[Rizen]

Larry Lurr interviews Dom about :

 

[Ziodyne 21]

Wow. Quidd managed to get a reverse 3-0 over Tweek with a switch. Tweek never even dropped a set before Top 32

 

[Nobie]

Tweek just got reverse 3-0'd in Ro32 at SWT NA Northeast. Obviously, he still has what it takes to make Top 6 and qualify, but to call it an upset is an understatement.

Tweek went Diddy, Sephiroth, and Wolf, and what this made me realize is that none of his characters have universally good recoveries, which Pac-Man could exploit. They can mix up their recoveries for sure, but all of them are in a bad spot if their particular vulnerabilities get called out.

 

[Ziodyne 21]

You got to love that all commentators talk about R.O.B's weaknesses as WaDi was dominating most of the set vs Angel.

Is there some unwritten rule among the community that can never be considered top-tier despite all the results it gets. The similar rule where an electric rat has to be considered unanimously top 3

Btw you see Ned Reverse MR.E switching to . Gameplan depends mostly on using superior range to space out and edguegaurd. It gets a bi trickier vs a character that can beat her at her own game.

That Game 4 ender by Ned was both disgusting and bonkers

 

[Ziodyne 21]

Good Lord..LeoN with the dominating 3-0 over Dabuz . Dabuz and Tweek now facing eachother in losers to get Into Top 8. This SWT is nuts

 

[The_Bookworm]

Update:

We have (most) of the players that will be moving on in the SWT in the event.

• WaDi
• Syrup
• LeoN
• Riddles
• Armadillo
• Winner of Sinji vs Tweek

That being said, here is what top 6 looks like.

Winner's
WaDi vs Syrup
LeoN vs Riddles

Loser's
(Loser of LeoN vs Riddles) vs Armadillo
(Loser of WaDi vs Syrup) vs (Winner of Sinji vs Tweek)


LCQ is firing up right now, and there are a lot of determined players aiming to get that coveted final two slots.

Edit: Tweek wins 3-2 over Sinji, securing his spot in the SWT.

 

[Thinkaman]

Marss out to Tilde and Ravenking .

Rooting for our boy John12346 !

 

[Rizen]

That sucks. Marss was one of the few US players who could have stood up to the Mexican juggernauts MKLeo, Maester and Spargo. I wouldn't be surprised if they steamroll everyone.

 

[Ziodyne 21]

So not only did Armadillo get 4th using almost exclusively while starting top 32 in the losers bracke mind you but right now is a winners side of GF is a player named Syrup who is apparently 13 years old . Managing to get upsets on Ned, WaDi and LeoN to make it there. All while players like Light, Marss and Cosmos drowned in pools/LCQ


This tournament man...

 

[TennisBall]

It's not exactly over but I think it's safe to say this is the most wild tournament I've watched in ages.

Amazing stuff to Syrup who I've been following for a bit and is sick as hell I hope he does well offline, Tweek is obviously incredible and I'm very happy he qualified.

My statement could not have been more true it seems.

Dabuz is currently fighting Sharp to qualify for winners, and loser fights Myles, a notable Yoshi.

It seems there's always just a little bit more Smash to be played, eh

 

[The_Bookworm]

SWT: NA Northeast Ultimate Online Qualifier (2161 Entrants)

Qualified
1st: Tweek
2nd: Syrup
3rd: LeoN
4th: Armadillo
5th: WaDi (won the tiebreaker set with 3-2 over Riddles)
6th: Riddles

Others
7th: Sinji
7th: Ned
9th: LA GRIMACE
9th: Dabuz
9th: WebbJP
9th: Quidd
13th: ATATA
13th: Amante
13th: Mr. E
13th: Mj
17th: NAKAT
17th: Vapor
17th: Desmona
17th: Ravenking
17th: LingLing
17th: CaKe
17th: Angel
17th: BlueJay
25th: Suarez
25th: Stealth_Pilot
25th: Mr.Zercon
25th: Quark
25th: Riley
25th: Sytonix
25th: Sharp (entered the tournament as "naitosharp")
25th: Pokelam
33rd: Madison Turner
33rd: Advo
33rd: Seth
33rd: Tilde
33rd: colinies
33rd: John Numbers
33rd: Craftis
33rd: Coltman
33rd: Colmar
33rd: Loaf
33rd: Fang
33rd: Light
33rd: Myles
33rd: NickC (DQ'ed in loser's)
33rd: Smokk
33rd: 9superpie (DQ'ed in loser's)


LCQ

Qualified
1st: Dabuz
2nd: Sharp

Others
3rd: Myles
4th: Angel
5th: LingLing
5th: Vapor
7th: Riley
7th: ATATA
9th: Mr.Zercon
9th: John Numbers
9th: Ned
9th: Ravenking
13th: Craftis
13th: RIN
13th: Mr. E
13th: Marss