I'll give my two cents in the
conversation.
For starters, while the character is trickier to play than let's say Ness, we must also consider who is playing the character.
We have players like ChocoTaco, Hakadama, Mekos, Regalo, Remi, Rizeo (co-mains with Isabelle), ShiNe (before dropping him for PkMn Trainer), WebbJP (before dropping him for ZSS), and WhYYZ.
What do these players have in common?
They all have mained Lucas for many years in previous Smash games. All of them mained him in SSB4 (with Rizeo solo-maining him), with a few (like Mekos) even maining him as far back as Brawl.
So I don't really think character difficulty is much of a factor with Lucas as a result.
You could argue that Lucas in this game is harder to play than in SSB4 (which is something I am still on the fence about), but all of these players have many years of experience with the character, yet they have trouble achieving success in high level play (or consistent success across-the-board in general), especially in comparison with their performances with SSB4 Lucas.
While it is strange to say this, but I think it kinda ties in on why
is a noticeably better character than
, despite receiving mostly nerfs in the transition from Brawl to SSB4.
Yes,
had the whole grab release issue that hurt him quite a bit in that game.
However, the vast majority of his moves are arguably at its absolute best between his three iterations, between his moveset having the best frame data of the three iterations by far, sometimes in terms of damage output, the fact that his sweetspots generally have higher priority over his sourspots, and his sourspots being generally more advantageous on hit plus having more range on those said moves.
Between the transition, Lucas has received nerfs across the board in frame data, range, damage, and sometimes knockback, in addition of the significant weakening of his sourspots (they have less range, generally less advantageous on hit, and higher priority).
The impact of these nerfs can still be felt with Ultimate Lucas today despite all the buffs to these moves, especially regarding the sourspots.
So why is SSB4 Lucas a much better character?
Well we have the grab release issue fixed, and as well all know, Lucas has obtained a powerful grab combo game, tether attack, and PK Fire being buffed in the transition. This gives him a psuedo-zoner bait-and-punish playstyle. Forward air is still a good/key tool despite all the nerfs it has received. We all know Lucas plays in SSB4, and has received overall respectable tournament success thanks to it, especially in the middle years of SSB4's lifetime.
But with all the nerfs to his moveset, being the weakest of the three iterations in terms of the overall effectiveness of his moveset by far, why is his SSB4 iteration the one he obtained the most tournament success with by far?
I think it is largely because Lucas' general moveset is fundamentally flawed to function as a more aggressive or even all-rounder playstyle, which is the direction both his Brawl and Ultimate iterations lean towards.
Between the awkward sourspot system and general lack of reach, and some of his normals being mostly geared to being purely edgeguarding tools (back air, down air, down smash, etc.), Lucas CAN function as an all-rounder, but he shouldn't. His moveset generally has a lot of holes for him to function effectively this way. He isn't going to execute this playstyle better than anyone else.
With SSB4 Lucas, you have his general changes leaning towards an entirely different playstyle than the other two versions, utilizing a bait-and-punish playstyle with a few strong tools rather than using his other moves like an all-rounder playstyle. His other moves are the support cast that pieces this new playstyle together, rather than the primary focus. If Lucas isn't going to function that well as an all-rounder, he shouldn't.
In the transition between
to
, we see the opposite problem: receiving mostly buffs across the board, yet has not achieved anywhere close to the tournament success of the previous iteration.
He has received general buffs to his frame data and damage output, with his aerial game being the best of the three iterations by far thanks to the autocanceling capabilities and increased shieldstun of Ultimate. This comes at the cost of losing the main thing that made his playstyle from the previous game worth it (namely the severe nerfs to down throw), as well as the nerfs to tether attack as a general zoning tool.
Lucas is now back to square-one: his moveset is now more leaning towards a more all-rounder playstyle, that can pull off some stuff from his bait-and-punish playstyle from the previous game (namely the buffs to PK Fire over the years). As a result, he is a bit more of a mix-up type in this game.
The issue is that his overall effectiveness with this playstyle is still held-back by his moveset's fundamental disadvantages, something that while it got helped out in the transition, did not get fixed.
It doesn't help that the on-stage things Lucas DOES excel in Ultimate is either hard-to-land, inconsistent, or both.
The buffs to his edgeguarding isn't as significant as it is on first glance. One point is from the committal nature of his edgeguarding. The other, more significant thing, is the fact that Lucas already excels at edgeguarding. The buffs to PK Freeze, down air, and down smash, all help his edgeguarding indeed, but it doesn't add anything substantial to Lucas as a character because edgeguarding was never an issue with him in the first place, while these buffed tools doesn't change the way Lucas edgeguards anyways.
is another character that faces this same issue.
He has received mostly buffs in the transition from the transition from SSB4 to Ultimate, with his general moveset getting frame data buffs, improvements to his hitboxes and range, and as well as improvements to his already great mobility.
However, with the nerfs to his most powerful aspects (dash attack, up air, Shuttle Loop latter combos), and while the buffs help his primary issues in reach, damage output, and some fundamentally flawed aspects to his moveset (jab, f-tilt, etc.), these issues are far from fixed, leading to an overall much less effective character than in SSB4.
The end result is that Lucas does end up missing the tools he had in the previous game a lot. If you watch top level Lucas footage, you generally see Lucas players lean towards the patient playstyle of zair, fair, and PK Fire, because they still kinda have to.
In other words, Lucas players is forced to play Ultimate Lucas like a watered-down version of his SSB4 iteration, despite all the buffs he has received in the transition.
Lucas as a whole, feels like he lacks cohesion in Ultimate. He has a weird mix of his Brawl and SSB4 iteration tools, while possessing some his own unique stuff, but he has trouble piecing these tools together for an overall effective playstyle that allows him to have (consistent) tournament success on especially high level play. Unlike SSB4 Lucas who knows what he wants to be, Ultimate Lucas does not.
I have heard many returning Lucas players express their dismay with how Ultimate Lucas plays and functions as a character, especially prior to his 4.0.0 buffs (which is a long time ago now and is merely a few QoL changes),
Of course,
is still a better character than
, namely thanks to the improved keep-away, combo ability, and lack of grab release issues, but you still see some of the similar fundamental issues come back to hurt Lucas in the long run.