Ok as promised.
and
Before I get started, let me go back to my thoughts on Ryu in Smash 4.
When he first dropped I was super excited, but my excitement gave way to annoyance and disappointment. I was annoyed because almost the entire Ryu community was focused on "DANK" combos instead of learning basic neutral interactions and how his buttons work. I felt his meta was so far behind what it should have been even almost a year after his release.
The "multi-hits beat Ryu" meme was a thing for so long just because Ryu players had no real gameplan other than fish for UNGA confirms and failing that mash on Focus and hope opponents run into it. But I cannot fault the community too much. Ryu had VERY poor burst and was forced to rely on random SH bairs to force himself in. He had no quick access to all his neutral buttons besides walking at first. He had amazing ground pressure and mix-ups, but could not access it consistently. He relied on his opponents making errors or running into Focus. And this was my disappointment.
Ryu was reduced to taking MASSIVE risks and being a rage machine OR going for nutty plays that were hugely rewarding. Stratagems such as running full tilt at an opponent for a full jump nair which could lead to a conversion ending in a spike or shoryu confirm. This had a direct effect on how opponents interacted with Ryu. Everyone ran. That was the smart play and it still is. In that scenario Ryu really just has to get lucky or have a strong read on what you want to do and where you want to be. He simply did not have the speed to catch an opponent and punish them running away. And his one tool meant to let him play that game the hadouken, was grossly underpowered. It was easily swatted away with nary a thought.
So Ryu in Street Fighter who is a jack of all trades and can play anyway you want, was reduced to this.....thing in Smash 4. I know many people loved him, but the fact remains that he was wildly inconsistent and had no real winning gameplan vs the chars that were meta. He had to get lucky. Period.
So with all that said, let's see how Smash Ultimate treats the Shoto duo.
Right off the bat I will say Ryu lost some things, but gained other abilities.
Some of his frame data is different. He still has great start-up data, but the frame data specifically on Nair is different. The knockback angle has been changed and the FAF is later. Ryu can no longer carry opponents across the stage for a death conversion. Many Ryu players have dropped him due to this, even pro level players. I think they are jumping the gun a bit, but I understand their fear. They do not wish to invest in a character again that might not be able to compete.
On the flip side he did gain the ability to cancel his aerials. For shield pressure this is bananas. Shotos have insane block strings due to this and at low percents that get easy damaging combos. This is particularly potent with Dair.
The auto-face mechanic gives them easy cross-up pressure and block punishes as well. It also buffs their own defense. Someone crosses you up, just up b and you will catch them regardless of where they landed next to you. If you are pressuring someone's space with dash dances and they roll towards you, Shotos will turn and face your opponent and let you pressure or even punish if you react fast enough. Same thing happens even during block pressure. Your opponent manages to roll behind you, they will turn and you can get a free punish. Very dominant at lower levels of play or against anyone that is not used to fighting them.
Hadouken seems slightly better. Frame data is unchanged, but the community has noticed it clashes with more attacks now and enemies seem to run into a bit more. I personally think that just because dashing is a much stronger option now, Hadouken is better because it impedes that option thus making it more likely to hit an opponent. It now has a stronger place in the meta.
They now have proximity normals on their attacks. Up close forward tilt will do a hook punch that is cancellable on hit. An up close hard jab turns into hard utilt. The first one is welcomed combo filler. Does 7% damage and can link after a light utilt. Gives their combos a little extra juice. The second is interesting because in a game with 3 frame jump squat, people will want to jump. This move does 12% and is intangible, making it a strong AA. And like Street Fighter hitting a Hard Jab will create an automatic option select. Dash in and you will either get a nice poke with decent range, or an intangible AA that can be cancelled on hit or block. It all depends on how close your opponent is.
Ryu did not lose all his craziness. He still has utilt confirm into dair spike by the ledge. And he still has the threat of breaking a shield with collarbone breaker.
One of Ryu's biggest weaknesses was that his tool set did not coalesce. He lacked cohesion between his neutral and his win condition. He felt like an incomplete character that got by on jank. Now Ryu's nonsense has been toned down greatly and replaced with other stuff. But what ties him together is the run cancel mechanic. While this is universal, because he has block pressure, combos and kill confirms from his tilts there really is no scarier character that has this mechanic. Well...there is one but he comes after I talk about Ryu.
- Dash to utilt, jab, dtilt, dsmash, etc. It's all great stuff. And if Ryu whiffs a light tilt well he did not risk much at all. He only needs to win about 4 neutral interactions for you to be at kill percent and now he has the means to do it. He can cover a landing with a dash in light utilt and convert. Directional airdodge does make landing less scary but having this tool means his trap game cannot be scoffed at. He now has the means to tie together his neutral and his win condition. He is a complete character.
As I said the auto turn makes doing certain things a cake walk. Higher level strats such as ledge trapping and covering tech rolls becomes much easier. Put someone in a tech situation and jump at their space with a nair. If they rolled behind then Ryu will turn and you can actually react to him turning around then chase your opponent down. Same with ledge trapping really. Rolling behind is a non-option. He is still a rage monster. He lost Nair plane jank, but gained other things in return. He also has dthrow grab combos now, although only at lower percents from about 40% and down although it is Day 3 so much testing and labbing needs to be done.
The biggest cause for concern is that it is harder to do a bair, which was strong in neutral and good for getting stray kills especially when opponents try to platform camp. However the Shoto community has already come up with some solutions and again, it's very early right now. Unfortunately as solid as Ryu is he has two major issues. One is that he did not get the general speed buff that most of the cast got. And the other is who I am about to discuss right now.
- Remember how I said Ryu lost jank, but got other stuff? Yeah, well Ken has some jank that Ryu does not and his own advantages as well. He is 10% faster than Ryu in run speed meaning his matches vs zoners will be a little easier. His nair is much better for approaching and has a BETTER hitbox behind him, so overshooting an opponent is actually what you want. He does not have Ryu's Shakunetsu Hadouken, but that's fine. He has better stuff. His HCF+A does Ryu's hard jab, but....better. The attack is intangible making it a valuable poke. Also decent at killing at higher percent like Ryu's hard jab. Especially in a game with dominant sword wielders. His hard ftilt seems bad at first, but has good knockback and is nice as a stray killing move.
Ken's other unique special is QCD+A. You read that right. Quarter Circle Down+A. The inverse of a hadouken motion. Shoto community dubbed this move Crescent Kick or just Crescent for short. Upwards hook kick that hits twice and does 12%. Sets up some nasty stuff. Can lead to grab, dsmash and even shoryu. Ken off a single nair can do over 40% with the right combo. This means although his Shoryu does kill about 15% later, he effectively needs LESS neutral interactions than Ryu because he does more damage AND he has better tools to create those opportunities i.e his run speed and his nair.
His tatsu still has an invincible leg, but does not kill. Rather it sets up for low to the ground air trap situations. Crescent is also safe on block and because of the mechanics of the engine, it seems if you block the first hit you cannot parry the second. As I said before Ken still has jank. He can do some ugly things with falling Uair into Nair confirms. Ending in shoryu or dair spikes.
His shoryu again is weaker but the high knockback is the last hit not the first and has the same knockback while rising all the way through. So Ken can even do Falling Uair to Shoryu at say 100%. It will combo and kill. Or even something as simple as doing a raw shoryu if an opponent misses a tech on a platform. This means Ken controls a space in a deadly way that Ryu just cannot. Ken also retains the same low percent grab combos. Basic stuff like dthrow, uair, Shoryu. But again because Ken's shoryu functions differently, he gets more out of the combo as most of his damage and knockback is on the last hit.
Ken does seem to have some issues. There are reports of his Shoryu sometimes not killing at obscenely high percents and opponents even falling out. More testing needs to happen, but Nintendo is notorious for patching moves that do not work correctly. I am not worried at all about this.
People thought these two would be broken. That assumption was based on them gaining so much and losing nothing. Ryu lost some things while Ken has quite a bit over him. I could see Ryu as high tier at best. Ken is probably a contender for top tier. He can do so much and threaten in a way that Ryu cannot.
There was a glitch discovered involving jump cancelling attacks in a 2 frame window. Both Shotos can do this. They can get some serious damage with it thanks to dair cancels.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Meshima_/status/1072156707399196672?s=19
I am hesitant to try to master this. Seems like an obvious glitch that will get patched out.
I do not see either one of them becoming popular or meta. Too much work when Chrom and the rest of FE gang exists. This is especially true of Ken. The Crescent Kick motion is not intuitive at all, but is pivotal for him to reach his full potential. Super fun and satisfying character though and has alot of cool tools.
