No disrespect, but this is an incredibly superficial read of Ultimate's metagame, to the point where it almost reads like parody. It speaks more to your dissatisfaction you have with Smash Ultimate than a substantive read of the metagame.
I think you're reading things into my post which simply aren't there.
I like smash ultimate much better than smash 4; I didn't particularly like smash 4 and the direction that it took over the years. I take issue, however, with this rose-colored-glasses view of the new game that suggests that it has more depth or is more difficult than the previous entry in the series; I also want to suggest that the balance in this new game is going to be inevitably worse due to the mechanics (ignoring balance patches for the moment). This is an observation based on years of experience with melee, brawl, and smash 4, not a value judgment aimed at taking down smash ultimate or targeting your enjoyment of the game. If I've framed things in a particularly negative or harsh light, it's because you've repeatedly framed them in a disproportionately positive way that in my opinion they don't deserve, so some counterbalance is necessary.
As far as my read on the metagame, this is no parody, nor is it meant as a slight to smash ultimate. if my own experience isn't enough to convince you, this is the same take that Dabuz has. But rather than argue on the correctness of the read, I'll rephrase it: RPS in fighting games always exists and always will; Ultimate didn't expand the RPS concept, just shifted it.
Instead of taking issue with my tone, and using wording like parody, myopic and disingenuous, you could offer something substantive. A substantive response to my claim would look something like this:
"But dash dancing doesn't always beat shielding because parrying is a mechanic, so this theoretical triangle that you suggested actually has room for layers of yomi"
(forgive me fighting game theorists for my inaccurate usage of the word yomi; it just conveys the point better)
I'd take no issue with this kind of argument; it's a valid criticism and I could see parrying making the game much deeper in the end.
This, however:
"It's a new game"
"It's too early to tell"
"You have a lot of movement options"
I can't get behind. These are self-defeating blanket statements. You yourself claimed that this game is much deeper than smash 4--how do you know? Isn't it "too early to tell"? The game has only been out for a month, and you already want to assess its depth as being greater than a game that people managed to find deeply satisfying for over 5 years?
That's a tall claim, and you can't defend against its refutation by offering, "But it's too early."
I like you and I like Smash Ultimate, and I'm glad that you enjoy it.
I hope that this clarifies my position a bit.
Though I can't say I agree with your Smash 4 take either; There's just a lot less you can do in Smash 4, with approaches (and recoveries) being linear,
What does this mean? What is a linear recovery and why does it exist in smash 4 but not in Ultimate?
What's a linear approach? Does dash dancing a few times before you dash attack constitute a non-linear approach? (think foxtrotting Cloud from smash 4)
shield punishes mitigating a lot of risk on your part and ridiculously strong grabs.
mitigating risk also means that you can take more risks because there are more neutral interactions per stock; 3 stocks in Ultimate (a point you bring up in Ultimate's favor, even though it's a tournament ruleset call and not part of the game engine at all) may end up being fewer neutral interactions per game than 2 stocks in smash 4.
but Ultimate having a more punishing disadvantage is a good thing. Air dodges and rolling mitigating pressure as well as they did in Smash 4 wasn't a good thing. It's also one of the most blatant areas where you can see the difference between a good and a bad player in Ultimate.
Punish quality always scales with game time. A more punishing disadvantage shifts the focus from neutral to advantage. What's the problem with that, you ask? Nothing, actually; it makes it a different type of game, but that may be fine. For me, personally, it's one of the reasons that I never got into competitive Melee and it's not something that I like about this game.
Advantage is fundamentally a state where one player has a lopsided role. The more important advantage is, the more something like practicing combos in training mode is critical to success rather than figuring out your opponent's habits. It's still skill, you're right, but it's of a different sort.
This is too fatalist for my liking. Of course doing Smash 4 things will get you blown up (which is why good hitboxes are so dominant) but you have significantly improved movement options to compensate. Sitting in shield and punishing on when they attack you doesn't fly anymore, nor does air dodging through enemy pressure, which is why improving your movement, your ability to bait and maximize your punishes in this game is the key to succeeding in this game.
only mediocre players sat in shield waiting to punish something in smash 4; either that, or the matchup was Sheik vs. ZSS (a fast character with good out of shield punishes vs. a tether grab character). Even then, most top-level matches consisted of tons and tons of powershielding and microspacing.
the point is that good hitboxes being dominant is a fundamentally different design; it isn't any deeper, and leads to some problems. one of those problems is swords. Swords already have several advantages over other types of attacks. They have disjoint, they have range, and they swing in arcs, which makes dodging them more difficult. (before you say it, they do also have some disadvantages; arcs can actually be a disadvantage, for one thing, since you're locked into an attack until your arc finishes--ask any Shulk main about why this is an issue). The engine makes swords even stronger than they already naturally are. The problem is not isolated to swords, nor do I think that swords will take up all the top spots going forward.
I didn't reply to a few other things due to length; don't want this to become enormous.
You're free to have the last word if you want, I've had my say.
This is objectively false. Ballooning knockback and lower hitstun means that the players knocked away are out of 'disadvantage' sooner than before, and directional airdodges have given them +2 options.
Snakes recovery is a classic example. In brawl his cypher was a total liability, you chase him offstage and nair with with a character like MK, whats he going to do? Take the hit and die. Airdodge and get daired and die. Fair and die. Now he can just freakin teleport behind people. The worst is when he is cyphering close to the ledge, too far to be hit/grabbed and he just directional airdodges out of it and snaps to the ledge. It is truly unpunishable unless you go offstage.
I can go on all day. How about Mewtwo vs DK, in smash 4 once I took a DK's double jump on a stage like FD, it was impossible for them to dodge full charge shadow ball. Absolutely impossible unless they fade away really far offstage and try to upb from below, in which case shadow ball still hits them anyway. It was a death sentence if the Mewtwo was paying attention. He can't fair it, bair it, airdodge, he's done. Now he can just teleport behind the shadowball, or directional airdodge upwards to dodge it. DK's options in disadvantage went from incredibly poor, to far too high. And this change is universal.
Directional airdodges combined with low hitstun have made escaping disadvantage easier that any smash game in history.
The only reason you think people 'are just dead' isn't because of few options in disadvantage, its because recoveries have been nerfed. Characters like ZSS don't have a worse recovery because they have fewer options (they have more than ever thanks to the airdodges), but because the options they do have have been made weaker across the board.
This is a fair criticism. You're right. Directional airdodging as a universal mechanic is a straight buff to disadvantage.
It's a combination of weaker recoveries and stronger vertical juggling options that makes the "are just dead" characteristic surface.