INCOMING NURD SCRUB ANALYSIS
So I'm not a professional analyst in any sense of the word, but I like to think I can occasionally identify strengths and weaknesses in certain characters. So I wrote them down when I got bored.
I'll briefly list who I think are strongest to weakest. Characters in italics are ones whose positions I'm not as confident in as I am others.
The best
Shiek
Zero Suit Samus
Greninja
Duck Hunt Duo
Fox
Threats
Little Mac
Lucario
Pac-man
Bowser
Zelda
Villager
Bowser Jr.
Marth
Yoshi
Rosalina and Luma
Strong
Shulk
Jigglypuff
Robin
Dark Pit
Pit
R.O.B.
Ness
Peach
Metaknight
Dr. Mario
Mario
Wario
King Dedede
Captain Falcon
Lucina
Mii Gunner
Falco
Lacking but still powerful in the right hands
Sonic
Ganon
Megaman
Charizard
Diddy Kong
DK
Link
Toon Link
Wii Fit Trainer
Weak to just plain bad
Samus
Ike
Mr. Game & Watch
Olimar
Mii Swordsman
Palutena
Mii Brawler
Luigi
Kirby
Pikachu
Time for some explaining!
Sheik
Sheik is a terror in the For Glory scene. She will remain on top of the competition for a very long while unless some bugs are discovered which make her opponents rain hell on her. She is one of the few characters which retains a speed that is comparable to Melee's pace. Her new down-special is brilliant and provides excellent cover during recovery, and her buffed up-air with the killing blow at the end of the animation is a huge weapon against up-thrown enemies. No matter what happens in the metagame, Sheik will remain a nightmare to play against.
Zero Suit Samus
Yet another name that will strike fear into player's hearts, ZSS is Sheik's main threat to the top spot in the game. What was once a decent character has been buffed insanely with new specials and improved animations and everything adds up to a very powerful character. Her new down-B is like Sheik's - a wonderful recovery tool which attacks at the same time, and doesn't leave you helpless as you can use your new up-B to recover or in some situations combo for a swift KO. Her grab is significantly weaker but this appears to be the only significant nerf, with her faster up and down smashes wrecking the competition. Look out for her.
Greninja
Here's another character who appears to move at Melee pace. Greninja's damage output on the ground is enough to lower him a couple of spots but his edgeguarding, survivability and aerials more than make up for this. His edgeguarding is second in the game only to Duck Hunt, with his neutral B being good for both on- and off-stage opponents, and his up-B has the same push power as FLUDD without the long charge up. In the air, his neutrals are devastatingly strong, and his specials allow him to evade attacks with ease while having short lag (except his down-B, that's worse than Lucario's) so he can set himself up for more damage.
Duck Hunt Duo
The edgeguarding king. DHD is the campiest character in this game, despite an overall nerf to campers, but his close-range is still very powerful. The Can is strong enough as it is without the Clay Pigeon also causing immense trouble for characters to get near - especially slow ones like Bowser and Yoshi. In addition, both the Can and the Sheriff block attacks, allowing more time for the Duo to set up even more punishment. His main weaknesses are against quicker characters which are taking up a lot of the top-tiers so far, so he can't take top spot, but he's still strong enough to keep zoning medium- and low-speed characters away.
Fox
A pleasant surprise and a return to Fox's Melee glory... almost. Although Fox is lacking in kill moves except his smashes and back-air now, his damage dealing is about the same as it was in Melee without Shine cancelling, but that's still saying a lot. Fox's dair and bair are now strong damage dealers with his bair being his best killing move outside his smashes, and his decent animations (despite the removal of jump-cancelling lasers) make the rest of his neutral game a real frontrunner. His speed is also very beneficial, and the ENORMOUS buff to his recovery in the Fox Illusion not leaving you helpless is more than enough to make him a top-tier beast again.
Little Mac
Opinions on Little Mac are very conflicting. Some think he's one of the best characters in the game, some believe he's almost useless. I belong to the first party. Little Mac is quick, hits very hard and has the most indispensable tool in almost any character's arsenal - the KO Punch. Even without the KO Punch he'd be pretty strong but it really pushes him over the edge - one mistake from your opponent and it's the best punishing tool in the game. On top of his INSANE jab, his brilliant f-smash and great dash attack, he has a counter. Is there any reason not to love Little Mac? Get him off stage and he's dead. But a good Mac won't get off stage.
Lucario
At first glance Lucario doesn't seem too much changed from Brawl. His jab combo is a little better, Force Palm is quicker, and his down aerial can't be used to stall any more. The main buff to Lucario is completely indirect - the increased killzone sizes. Characters are going well over 100% before getting killed in Smash 4, and Lucario's weight and counter ability are both key in keeping him alive long. Then his new aura buff kicks in, and he's easily one of the most terrifying characters to fight offstage. Everything about Lucario is turned up to 10 when he gets over 100%, and his slightly improved speed makes him one of the strongest characters easily.
Pac-man
Fire Hydrant. (As a quick explanation, I won't go too much over characters I think don't need much explaining, just outline their best features.)
Bowser
Bowser-senpai is finally strong enough for me to consider him as a main! Praise the lord Sakurai!
Seriously though, his new aerials are brilliant. You won't get back on stage with this guy standing on it. His main problem is really his size and speed.
Zelda
Another character who got a favourable eye this game after poor performances in prior games. Zelda's new stalling and killing power with her hugely buffed specials and quick jab is a blessing - Din's Fire keeping enemies at bay and Teleport now having an explosive start and finish to provide both power and mobility. Her sweetspotted aerials are also back, giving accurate players even more reason to love this character.
Villager
Grab enemy, throw enemy off stage, plant tree, water tree, cut tree onto recovering enemy, jump off, slingshot until enemy is dead, recover. Rinse and repeat.
Bowser Jr.
Bowser Jr. (and all related Koopalings) is such a joy to play that even if he wasn't so strong I'd still love him. Fortunately, his zoning, dash attack and aerials are all incredible, and make him a real pain to play against. One of the major factors in his placement in this list is his recovery - not only does he have the Koopa Kart for his horizontal momentum but his up-special doesn't actually leave him in a helpless state... HE CAN STILL ATTACK. And it hurts.
Marth
Another character feeling better than ever. His sword seems to come out faster and his tipper seems to do even more damage - a real strong character overall.
Yoshi
Enormous buffs to his aerials (that dair does insane damage) and better-than-ever edgeguarding with his up-B gives a good slot to everyone's favourite green dino.
Rosalina and Luma
While I personally can't play the character, her matchups are insane and mostly because Luma blocks 50% damage... that's crazy.
Shulk
Perhaps there's a little bias here because he's now my new main, but Shulk is a very solid character whose Monado Arts are severely underrated. His low speed, heavy weight and slow animations are completely made up for with Monado Speed, Jump and Buster respectively, and Shield is one of the best defensive specials in the game when used properly. Monado Buster is easily his best skill, building up damage extremely quickly, just to set up for a Monado Smash which in combination with the brilliant range of his smashes can be devastating. I have a VERY good For Glory record as Shulk, and it's easy to see why.
Jigglypuff
Holy crap, Rest finally kills at a decent percent, and her bair brings back the Wall of Pain which ruined the SSBM metagame for a short while. Looking forward to seeing a lot of her.
Robin
Nosferatu is all that really needs to be said. Excellent specials, great jab combo and quick, powerful smashes.
Dark Pit
Although Pit (and therefore his clone Dark Pit) received a couple nerfs from Brawl, most notably to Palutena's Arrow and the ridiculous recovery, there's one new skill which makes both of them still very strong - the new side-B. On Dark Pit, the hitbox seems a little bigger, so I'll put him above Pit for now.
Pit
Same as Dark Pit.
R.O.B.
Pretty much the same as Brawl but with even better aerials and a slightly buffed standard B. Overall fun to play, not fun to play against.
Ness
Back to being a great character after a poor run in Brawl. Now, his custom specials are Lucas's, and his up-b goes through enemies for a few frames after being cast so it doesn't get instantly cancelled by enemies trying to block your recovery. It's good to have you back, even if your other specials are useless!
Peach
While nowhere near as strong as she was in Melee, she can still hold her own with her still-very-powerful aerials, and her buffed neutral-B is good too.
Metaknight
Nerfed to ****, and the world is better off for it! Worse jump height, slower animations, no more endless "hiyayaya", Shuttle Loop no longer goes into a glide and his tornado has bad damage/priority. He's still a scary character with better killing options than in Brawl from his smashes and Shuttle Loop now hurts quite a bit more but does less knockback.
Dr. Mario
While I have to regrettably place him lower than I want, this is still an excellent slot for a powerful character and I can see him occasionally making a big difference in some games. He's better than Mario for all the same reasons he is in Melee - while he can't cape stall, his down-B is more powerful, his fair is a great killing move (better than the new Meteor Smash mechanics allow Mario's to be) and his bair is one very underrated edgeguarding move. The only thing which Mario gets better is the dair, but Doc has it as his down-special in place of FLUDD, so not bad at all.
Mario
See Dr. Mario.
Wario
Nerfed quite a bit from Brawl. While I hear there's a bug for his recovery which makes him literally overpowered, his neutral game and smashes are a little weaker than before. To compensate, his specials seem a little stronger, and his hitboxes are quite large, but overall he's just not as good as he was in Brawl. Still, a very powerful character.
King Dedede
Gordos everywhere.
Captain Falcon
It's a shame Falcon's ended up getting nerfed cause he was such a fun character to watch that every game of his was a highlight of some sort. He's still not a bad character by any means, as his dair, bair and uair are all just as useful and strong (if not better) as before while his specials remain almost entirely untouched. It's really only his glorious knee which got nerfed, but it was quite a core part of his moveset, and the killbox size increase didn't help either.
Lucina
See Marth, but with a little less damage.
Mii Gunner
No For Glory with Gunner doesn't help with my analysis, but the general consensus is that Gunner is the best of the Mii Trio with good zoning and reasonably strong KO power.
Falco
Falco is getting a lot of undeserved smack for the two big nerfs he received - to his dair and laser. While it's true these are two very significant nerfs which greatly affect the way he's played, Falco still has one of the better jab combos in the game and an excellent set of smashes which lend themselves well to overall strong damage-dealing. This, and the buff to his recovery which he shares with Fox, is more than enough to justify him being a pretty decent character.
Sonic
I won't lie, Sonic is one of the characters I am worst as in Smash and so I haven't played him much. Going from what I've played, I still don't think he's a great character, but this is an uninformed opinion.
Ganon
Another character getting a lot of smack for his weaknesses when he still has a lot of strengths, especially in his custom moves. Flame Choke is still the most awesome-looking special in the game, his aerials are still strong, and that clip of the Ganon smashing the enemy off an edge-steal is awesome.
Just try not to look at his face too much during the winner's screen. It's weird.
Megaman
Great aerials, decent smashes, bad tilts, bad specials. Not much more to be said except his light weight sucks for getting blasted early. In the right hands, he's still not terrible, but I don't see him working out too well in most matchups.
Charizard
I want to love you... but hurting yourself when you use a special? That brings back bad memories, man.... bad memories.
Diddy Kong
Another character I don't play much so I don't have the best opinion of, but one-use bananas aren't working in his favour at all.
Donkey Kong
Has Donkey Kong ever been amazing? I can see this iteration working slightly better than past ones, but DK still needs a lot of work to beat a lot of the stronger characters in the game. He's getting too old!
Link
Some people have said that Link's been considerably buffed this version - I disagree on terms of his still-slow animations, bad grab and below-average tilts. His specials and recovery are just as strong if not stronger, which is a pleasant surprise but nothing to make him a lot stronger than previous games.
Toon Link
Same as Link, but lighter weight. Not enough change to make him a massive threat.
Wii Fit Trainer
Perhaps it's because every WFT I've played against online has sucked and I'm not used to the character, but she/he doesn't feel very strong and their miniscule hitboxes don't lend the character any favours. Pulling off a Deep Breathing mid-battle and charging a Sun Salutation is also difficult to find the place for with relatively weak spacing. The usefulness of these skills, though, is quite influential and I expect that as I learn the character more I'll rank them higher, but right now they don't feel strong enough to warrant higher spots.
Samus
This Samus feels even slower than Melee Samus, albeit with better smashes. I don't think that anything they do with Samus in future games will thrust her into top tiers as the concept seems weak, but at least her zoning is quite good.
Ike
I didn't even think Ike was that special in Brawl, so it didn't surprise me that he was turning up on a lot of people's worst character lists this game. He's waaay too slow, waaay too heavy and his specials are waaay too bad. He does have some use in 100-man smash, but that's about it.
Mr. Game & Watch
I liked G&W in Brawl and Melee for his uniqueness, but nothing about him seems to work in 4 aside from his customizable specials and even they don't seem to be too strong. The very few buffs he recieved (the turtle and the flag) aren't horrible but they aren't nearly enough.
Olimar
Oh god, oh god no. Just reducing the amount of Pikmin he has would be enough of a nerf to Olimar, or just making the order fixed! You don't need to throw them both in at once and remove almost all viability for this character in one big blow. C'mon, Sakurai/Namco, you're better than this.
Mii Swordsman
Slow, slow, slow. Everything about this character is just plain ugh... but at least it's not Brawler.
Palutena
What happened? Palutena is a goddess, she's technically more powerful than any other character in the game (discounting that one character who some people will know). But sadly her animations are incredibly slow, her launch power is bad and her specials are extraordinarily weak, even given their immense diversity. (I'm secretly glad Palutena isn't strong, I was against her inclusion in the first place)
Mii Brawler
Wannabe Little Mac, minus everything that makes Little Mac good.
Luigi
Twang. No recovery for yooou
Kirby
This nerf seems really unfair, cause Hungrybox played an excellent Kirby at the Smash Invitational, but there is nothing which makes Kirby that amazing in 1v1, especially with matchups almost as terrible-looking as Melee's. And when they thought the Hammer was being buffed by gaining a charge ability, they were very wrong.
Pikachu
Maybe it's because I hate playing Pikachu. Maybe it's because every Pikachu I've played against (and that's very few) has been bad. Maybe it's because Pikachu's main tools of destruction have been nerfed completely. Maybe it's because almost every character has a decent way to ignore almost every one of Pikachu's low-priority moves. Maybe it's because Pikachu SUCKS.
Thus concludes my preliminary analysis. Later into the game's life I'll do follow-ups on the tier lists and how they've turned out according to expectations like this, and what we were seeing right/wrong and what that means for the future. Thanks for reading though, and please do offer your opinions on my list, I'd love to see what you think. Just don't be too harsh... my poor little heart can't take it!