First of all, I have not been saying we should lynch X1 even without a CC. If you think that, I seriously have no idea where you got that idea, because if my unvote on him wasn't evidence enough, I DON'T want to lynch him UNLESS there is a CC. All I've been arguing for this entire time is for the REAL COP, if he IS NOT X1, to COUNTER CLAIM X1.
Again,
all I'm asking for is the real cop to come forward and CC X1 IF YOU EXIST. I'm NOT saying we should lynch X1 without a CC. If there IS a CC,
then I say we lynch X1.
Got it? Now let's go through this analysis.
If the cop CCs, it means a cop that wouldn't normally have to claim is out in the open. If X1 is the cop, he's already out in the open and we can't DO anything about it.
Yes, it does mean that. But the benefit is, we know that X1 is scum, and have secured a D1 scum lynch. Sure, our newly claimed cop is in the same situation as X1 is now, but as I've already described for you, we have PLENTY of ways of catching scum trying to screw with the cop if they try to. If we have a watcher, we can catch and RBer going for him. If we have a doctor, we can possible soak up night kills. ALL the ways you've described that we have for dealing with protecting X1 against kills/using X1 as bait to catch scum WILL STILL APPLY TO THE NEWLY CLAIMED REAL COP IF HE EXISTS. I don't see why this is hard to understand. If X1 is the cop, he is already outed and exists in a WIFOM scenario for scum to deal with. If X1 get's CC'd, we now have our real cop in the exact same scenario, EXCEPT we now KNOW that he's the cop, and that X1 is scum, netting us a free scum lynch, which constitutes a distinct and direct, guaranteed town boon.
They're apples and oranges, FF. You can't say "oh, well one guy is in this situation but he might not be town. If he is it's a bad situation, but it could be a scum ploy! Let's put another townie IN THE SAME BAD SITUATION just to catch him!" when we can catch him in a multitude of other ways WITHOUT having our cop CC.
You
can catch scum in other ways using your plan yes, but YOUR plan requires FAR more assumptions than my plan does. Your methods of catching scum requires all sorts of town power. We need a tracker to catch X1 misbehaving. We need a watcher to catch scum trying to RB/Kill him or his investigation targets, and even if we have that, it relies on those powers outguessing the scum. We need a doctor or jailer to possibly soak up a night kill, which again, requires scum to fall into the trap. NONE of that is guaranteed. You know what is far closer to guaranteed than ANY of those plans? Catching and lynching X1 as scum in the face of a CC IF someone does in fact CC. That's what I'm saying. My plan nets us scum far quicker, far more reliably, and with very little sacrifice.
Why is it very little sacrifice? I'll explain that in greater detail when I get to you whole spiel on how I'm "paranoid".
If we think he's the cop, we shouldn't lynch him.
If we don't think he's the cop, the cop shouldn't counter claim.
There are many other ways to find if he's telling the truth or not, and we'll definitely be able to lynch him further days down the road if he survives that long.
I don't know why you even said those first two sentences. The whole point of calling for a CC is WE DON'T KNOW WHETHER OR NOT HE IS REALLY COP. Last time I checked, we hadn't reached a consensus about whether or not we thought he was legit, and we really have no method of telling OTHER than just general reads. And regardless, even if we
think he's the real cop now, and he's not, we're
better off with a CC and nipping our wrongness in the bud before it gets out of hand. Again, NONE of your plans are anywhere CLOSE to netting us guaranteed scum as a DIRECT COP CC is. Having multiple cops in a game just straight up
isn't likely. I think I may have played in ONE game in my entire mafia career that had more than one cop in it, and I couldn't even tell you what that was. It just straight up isn't likely at all. If you're going to accuse
me of being paranoid for speculating about anti-cop PRs, you can absolutely **** off with this **** about "omg there might be two cops durr hurr".
You really think X1 as a cop would actually survive for more than a few night phases? I'd personally love to see them roleblock him every night or miss their kill once or twice when a doc protects him. I think that'd be fantastic. Much better than killing one scum and saying "okay now what". Know what's even better? Killing X1 on a further Day phase when we discover he's not a cop while our real cop is still alive, and then lynching X1 with several days worth of X1 posts to read over. That's better.
What does this have to do with anything? If X1 really is the cop, ALL of those good things you want to happen are likely to happen. Again, I DON'T want to lynch X1 if NO ONE CCs. But guess what happen if someone DOES CC? We lynch X1 and nail scum. Then, if scum still try to go after the real cop, ALL OF THOSE GOOD THINGS YOU TALKED ABOUT IN THE BOLD STILL HAPPEN. You're making it sound like if we lynch X1 as SCUM WHO ISN'T REALLY THE COP as a result of a CC, somehow none of that WIFOM business will go on with the CCer, who is the real cop. KILLING X1 AS A RESULT OF A CC IS NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE WITH WIFOM BENEFITS (such as pulling constant RBer aggro, potentially stopping kills, watching scum try to RB or otherwise mess with the CCer, etc.). Why the **** do you think it is? Want to know what I think is better than everything you've suggested? Literally getting all the things in bold that you said you would love to have happen IN ADDITION to getting a free scum lynch D1.
You act like having X1 posts to read over if he is scum is our golden ticket to finding the rest of the scum. It's not. You're providing ZERO concrete benefit with that analysis. You're just saying that sifting through X1's posts will net us guaranteed scum. It won't. It just won't. It would be useful yes, I won't contest that, but not NEARLY as useful as
literally lynch a free scum right away. Your future prospects that you espouse so dearly are reasonable, but no where even close to as concretely beneficial as a guaranteed scum lynch. You just can't make that argument. You can be wrong. I can be wrong. ANYONE can be mislead. Don't try to act like you will net guaranteed scum by following X1's potential paper trail if he's scum. There's no way to definitively quantify how much more likely we are to catch scum by leaving X1 around than we are likely to be fooled by him. Watch has far less room for error and doubt, is that is X1 gets CC'd, we're getting scum. It's far, far more likely and IMMEDIATELY beneficial.
But the initiation of the situation is NOT the same. X1 was pushed into a corner and you're asking for one of the strongest roles in mafia to commit suicide. We don't know if they can RB just like we don't know if we can protect or observe. All we know is that mafia would ALWAYS want the cop dead more than just about anyone.
By your definition, if X1
is the cop, he's already committed suicide. So literally, by having the cop CC, we're in the exact same position we
think we are in now, but with a revealed scum. Obviously we don't know what exists in the game. So even if that argument is a wash, my argument still stands over yours in that I provide us with a very real concrete benefit with no loss relative to our current situation.
And I seriously can't believe you
actually think a cop is ALWAYS the best role for mafia to target. That's just straight up wrong. The strength of power roles in a setup is always relative to what else is in the setup, and with regard to the cop, largely dependent on what tools the mafia has to deal with it. If the mafia has a lawyer/tailor/GF/framer, cop easily moves from being an incredibly useful info gathering role to an incredibly dangerous misinformation spreading role. And all that ASSUMES the cop is sane, which isn't guaranteed. I'm not saying it's more likely that the cop isn't sane than it being sane, but what I
am saying, is that
that possibility in conjunction with the
very real and reasonable possibility that scum have tools to deal with or even manipulate the cop (which are far more prevalent than most other scum roles that are meant to "deal" with other town PRs btw. I'm pretty sure you'd have a hard time coming up with a bigger list of roles that are all specifically devoted to dealing with a single town PR, than the list of roles that exist that specifically mess with the cop), means that cops just straight up are
not that reliable, and thus, NOT that powerful relative to other roles in the situation we are in now (i.e., we know virtually nothing about the setup). I could agree with you that in certain circumstances where you can reasonably establish probably sanity and are confident that there exist no roles in the game that could manipulate cop results, that cop is a ****ing fantastic role. I might even agree with you that's the best. But to say it is
flat out the best in this situation is ****ing delusional dude, it really is.
IMO, I think this early in the game, watchers, trackers and voyeurs are all far more powerful than the cop, because they can net us greater amounts of information with greater reliability, since straight up fewer roles exist that can mess with them, thus, their propensity of being messed with is lower since we know
nothing of the setup. This is
especially true if we follow your mantra and don't try to meta the mod, since then all we can go on is the sheer numerical capacity for mishaps to occur, which simply doesn't fall in cop's favor.
Occam's razor. If a cop gets an inno, you don't lynch an inno. Plain and simple. Yes, he could be multiple things. You could also be a hidden mafia member and not know it until your trigger is set, like Spiderman in Villains mafia. Maybe you should modkill yourself?
Again, what does this have to do with anything? Now you're trying to put words in my mouth. I never said anything about what we should do if a cop gets any given result. All I'm saying is cop results straight up AREN'T RELIABLE if you know nothing about the setup. I'm with you on Occam's razor. Without reason to believe otherwise, I'd probably be ok with accepting a claimed inno as an inno. That doesn't mean I won't always be wary of the likelihood that that result just straight up isn't anywhere close to guaranteed to be true. You're literally trying to rope me into arguing we should
completely disregard cop results when I never,
ever said anything like that. Want to stop debating dirty anytime soon?
Playing the guessing game is idiotic. A cop clear is a cop clear. You want to lynch someone who is given an innocent? You lynch them further down the line, because nine times out of ten his stuff is legit. More importantly, you can figure out pretty quickly what the cop's thing is when he gets an inno on one guy and a guilty on another.
Again, never said we should "play a guessing game" or just throw cop investigations out like they're meaningless. I'm just trying to bring your inflated sense of how good cop investigation are back to ****ing reality. Want to substantiate that 9 time out of 10 statistic? That'd be a ****ing joke. You seriously can't be
this naive about how easy it is for scum manipulate cop investigations even
if the cop is sane.
You're grasping at straws. What if the watcher is paranoid and receives bad results? What if the doctor actually is a beacon and moves the night kill to that player? What if X1 claimed cop but is actually a princess and gives mafia the win on Night 1 if he is lynched on D1?
You don't know the setup and the options are limitless.
Occam's Razor. The simplest solution is more than likely correct, and the simplest solution is that X1 is a cop and we can use that to our advantage REGARDLESS of his alignment.
You have the balls to say
I'm grasping at straws and then give counter examples like
paranoid watcher,
******* mod beacon doctor, and
instant win for scum town princess? You have
got to be ****ting me. I know you're just trying to make
me look ridiculous by acting as if those comparisons are anywhere even
close to my examples of tailor/framer/lawyer/GF. I think everyone in this game knows that those roles I just listed are very real, common, and reasonable roles to expect to be in a game. Your roles on the other hand are ****ing way beyond the realm of reasonable. Possible? Yes. Reasonable to expect? Hell no. Just because the options are limitless doesn't mean we can't make
reasonable predictions about what's in the game. I think its is VERY reasonable to assume that one or more roles in this game exist that can **** with the cop's reliability, even if we assume the cop is sane. If you are calling me paranoid for being simply
wary of these types of roles and weighing their reasonable likelihood of existence against the reliability of a cop's power, you're completely out of your mind. That's not being paranoid, that's called being being
reasonably aware.
You are REALLY stuck on investigations not being reliable and wanting to lynch X1. You're being a little paranoid here; no one here is going to agree with you and say "yeah man, cop is a bad role". It's the most powerful role town can ever have, period, end of story. There is not a single standard role that is better.
No, I'm not stuck on lynching X1. I ****ing
unvoted him.
But yes, I amm stuck on cop investigation not being reliable, because they ****ing
aren't without more information about the setup. Again with you strawmanning me. I
never said cop was a bad role. I said it wasn't the BEST role like you've be saying. I think most people in this game
would agree with me on that stance. Saying cop is always the best role, end of story is completely ****ing delusional dude, it really is. I seriously can't believe you
actually believe that. It just empirically is NOT true. Unless of course you have some completely ****ing absurd definition of "standard" roles.
I can't say it definitively. I'm just smart enough to know that on Day 2 or Day 3, I can. You're wanting to throw a weapon out an airlock because you just aren't quite sure how big a bang it's going to make. That's foolish.
You want to assume X1 has an awesome mafia ability? Cool. But we don't know he's mafia. He doesn't even have a case presented against him that I've seen.
I seriously don't even see how anything you said here applies to the passage you quoted of mine, but I'll address it anyway.
I don't want to throw any weapon out of the airlock. I'm saying if there is a cop, they should CC X1. X1
could be the real cop. If he is, no one will CC and this won't matter. But if he isn't, it's better for us to know NOW.
I NEVER assumed X1 had a kickass scum ability. I said he might. And
if he gets CC'd and we lynch him, we DIRECTLY benefit from his removal with bonus points if he DOES have a kickass scum role.
But we gain nothing, absolutely nothing, from putting our cop in danger now. We can kill X1 later and get more advantages than killing him now. The only exception is if X1 has some super mafia ability that's going to wreck us, but again, it's a gamble for him to use it. If he uses one of his abilities on someone we don't want and is observed doing so, he'd be dead on D2 and our cop is still hidden.
Yes we do, because for all we know, our cop is
already in danger now, so the real cop CCing doesn't change our perceived scenario other than NETTING US FREE SCUM. So if the real cop CCs, if X1 ISN'T the real cop, then it's STILL a gamble for mafia to try and mess with the real one who is now taking X1's place of being in danger. All the tools you're assuming we should have to catch X1 slipping up as a scum faking claiming cop in the future, can similarly be used to catch scum trying to mess with our real cop IF he CC's.
Because leaving the cop hidden is the smarter, safer option.
Yeah because just saying that makes it true.
We have a watcher or tracker. Suddenly, they lose their roleblocker mafia when before we would have just lynched the town cop D1 and gotten absolutely nothing for it.
Problem?
But that's just
wrong. If we actually have a tracker or watcher, we can catch their roleblocker or whatever role they're using to try and mess with the CCer, ON TOP OF having already LYNCHED A SCUM (X1) THAT GOT CC'd. We
wouldn't have lynched the town cop! Where the hell did you get that from! Again, the whole point of this is we would
only lynch X1 now if he gets CC'd!
Do you have better players? I picked good choices, and added myself as insurance. If I can be investigated, that gives info to everyone about me doesn't it?
And it's "or". Godfather or partnered with x1. Giving away either would be foolhardy.
Saying "well do you have a better idea" does not a good argument make. It doesn't matter if I do or not. All I'm saying is that you don't get to make the call just because you think you know what's best. If the town happens to agree with you, that's fine, we'll go with those picks. What I'm trying to communicate to whoever the cop is, X1 or not, is that decisions like these shouldn't be made unilaterally without discourse or affirmation. That's just asking to be manipulated unchecked.
Not when I'm scum, no. I would decide for you.
haha so fahnny joke
You're contradicting yourself pretty readily.
If X1 is the cop and they roleblock him, he can't investigate. You're fine with that. If we have observation roles which are just as common as a cop, we can SEE WHO VISITS X1, which should be no one but observation roles.
If I can see who visits X1 and I see Marshy visit X1 and then X1 is roleblocked, we find a scum.
We don't know if we have observation roles, and we don't know if they have a roleblocking role. The danger for them is that they don't know if we have one; the danger for us is that we don't know if we can catch them.
If they don't? They are left with no choice but to hope he's insane/naive/whatever... or kill him. But if we have a doc and the doc protects X1, which he should given that his odds are 1/16 during the night phase of picking the right one at random but pretty damn high if X1 is really the cop, the mafia lose a NKill AND we get a clear AND we get a cleared cop. That's a 3 man swing FF, and that's huge.
How does
any of this prove that I'm contradicting myself. I didn't contradict myself AT ALL. You
literally just described all the potential benefits we gain from having certain power roles in the game if the mafia are fixated on our cop, whether or not X1 is the real cop or not. Again, I'm NOT TRYING TO LYNCH X1 without a CC. If he get's CC'd we lynch him, nail scum, and now the CCer who is the real cop just takes X1's place as the object of scum's fixation. I seriously don't see how anything you just said up there contradicts anything I've said, or proves how I've contradicted myself I've literally been saying all of that the entire time.
If we have a watcher, I'm
also ok with creating a scenario where mafia risks getting seen targeting the cop (whether it be X1 or the CCer if one comes forward). If we have a doctor, I want to create a scenario where mafia risks that "3 man swing" by trying to outguess the doc. I've said all of this consistently. You aren't damaging my case at all, you're actually agreeing with it.
We don't know if the scum has an RBer. Who cares? All I was explaining is that if they do, worst case, we don't have a means of seeing them block our cop and our cop gets shut down. Oh well. All of our other powers are working behind the scenes without hindrance. We're really only in a terrible position if we have neither watcher nor a protective role, in which case there's nothing we can do any way to stop the scum from killing the cop
regardless so all of this is moot.
If X1 is mafia ****ing with us, he's gotta keep up this charade all game. If there's an observation role watching who X1 visits and he visits one guy and says the alignment of someone else, he's toast. Visits two people? Toast. Visits someone we don't tell him to visit? Dead man walking. He can't gamble on it as town or mafia.
In other words, the moment we want to kill him we can. If mafia are killing his clears, hooray for us. We're determining who they kill. Also huge. If mafia aren't, then the mid game is going to be X1 and all of his clears; at that point X1 is a viable lynch just to see his flip, and suddenly we get a barrage of clears or a scum flip later in the day.
Leaving him alive gives us the most options and the most power. The scum have to guess just as much as we do, except they know his alignment. Advantage them, sure. But if we lynch him and he's the cop we're just doing their job for them and we gain nothing.
You're literally just saying that it's ok to leave X1 alive un CC'd because you think we can just assume we have the powers to check to make sure he's using his role like we want him to, and if he doesn't we lynch him. That's a BIG assumption. We basically NEED a tracker for that to
definitely keep him in check. We can half reliably check him if we have a watcher or a voyeur. That's about it.
Of course we can kill him the moment we
want to. We can almost always kill someone the moment we want to, exceptions being unlynchables and whatnot.
What I'm saying is that we can KNOW DEFINITIVELY RIGHT NOW WITHIN REASON whether or not X1 is lying, and if he his, we kill him. That's what the CC does, and we're basically just doing what you want to do (lynch him when we catch him as scum), but earlier. We don't lose much at all by doing this, because all of your alleged benefits of dealing with him later don't stand up like you think they do.
You say that scum will be killing the way we want them to because they'll have to kill our clears. Not necessarily true. If X1 is scum, no need. If they have a framer/tailor/lawyer, no need. If they have a GF in the pair, no need. If they have a ****ING ROLEBLOCKER they don't give a **** about who we want X1 or the CCer to clear, HE WON'T GET ANY RESULTS. Hell, if they have reason to believe he isn't sane, no need. Scum are by no means bound to go after our investigation pairs.
And by all this logic, there's no reason for us to assume that X1 or the real cop who CCs him will have the magical list of clears in the future. Again, this is all predicated on these investigations going off without a hitch AND the mafia not having tools to deal with it. BIG assumptions.
But us nailing X1 as scum if someone CC's him ISN'T a big assumption at all. It's near guaranteed.
None of your long term benefits that you claim are unique to keeping X1 alive AND not having a potential real cop CC him even if he [X1]
isn't the real cop are actually anywhere close to as real as you claim them to be. All of benefits we gain from my plan, both short term and long term from having the real cop CC X1,
if he exists absolutely stand up, and your concurring analysis of the mafia WIFOM resulting from us having an outed cop going into future nights shows that pretty clearly.
IF THERE YOU ARE THE COP, PLEASE CC X1. OVERSWARM HAS HIS HEAD UP HIS ***.
People need to be reading this and understanding this analysis. It isn't that complicated. We need to encourage the real cop, if it isn't X1, to make the right play an CC. OS, for whatever reason, is literally encouraging far from optimal play.
