So let's distill this whole CC vs. CC later thing down to its core. At this rate, OS is just going to spam more non-answers, strawmans, and goal post shifts than any of us will be able to handle.
We have X1 claimed right now as cop.
If he's cop, he won't get CC'd anyway, so the whole debate is pretty pointless. OS and I agree about the potential WIFOM the scum have to deal with if they want to deal with the cop. This scenario isn't really in contention.
We don't know if he's the cop though. So what OS has suggested is that we give the cop options that we (well in his version, that
he[OS] proposes, which is mildy power grabby and scummy on its own, but shows more scummyness thanks to Macman's analysis. More on that later) propose and thus, allow our other PR's to keep him in check and make sure he's not misbehaving OR catch scum trying to mess with him if he's town. Cool. I don't think we have problems here.
If X1 isn't the cop, this is where OS and I actually disagree. I say cop should CC now and get X1 lynched so we have a scum out of the way now. OS says the cop should wait a day or two and then CC. Let's take a look at what we get from these two scenarios.
Cop CC's D1:
We lynch X1 who will within reason be basically guaranteed scum. X1 and whatever scum tools he had are now GONE, and can't be used to **** with us anymore. We benefit as little as simply removing a goon, to as much as getting rid of roles as powerful as say a strongman, tailor, GF, roleblocker, redirector, and what have you. Chances are, he'll have some sort of power and we benefit from never having to deal with it messing with us at night. That's a pretty distinct and indisputable benefit with REAL and immediately measurable impacts.
The cons are as OS has said, we put our cop into the open which is likely what scum wanted us to do (since we're assuming X1 didn't just randomly pick cop to claim, if he's scum he probably did it for a reason). This then puts our newly revealed cop in a position where scum now has to deal with ALL THE SAME WIFOM potential that X1 is subject to now if he
really is the cop. This is all stuff that OS and I AGREED presents us with opportunities to catch scum with, thus, it's largely a wash.
So now let's weigh my benefits against OS's unique benefits of his plan.
Cop CC's later (D2 or 3):
Everything I just talked about in the previous scenario carries over except two things. 1.) X1 as scum has been able to use whatever scum ability he might have to mess with other roles during this time we've left him alive. He's also been able to potentially lead us to a mislynch or mistaken clear certain players with his investigations. 2.) Our actual cop has likely been able to successfully acquire investigations behind the scenes for us to use once he does CC X1.
#2 is OS's most espoused benefit. Problem is, it's not as great as he claims it to be. If his constant spam of OMG FF YOU'RE SO PARANOID isn't telling enough, he really has no actual argument against my statement that cop investigations just straight up
aren't reliable without more info about the setup. Again, this doesn't mean we completely ignore the investigations, it just means we take them with a grain a salt. All I'm saying is that the number of potential anti-cop roles that exist in mafia significantly mitigates the beneficial impacts that OS claims his plan will have.
Because those investigation results we get simply aren't all that reliable, what I'm saying is the unique benefit of OS's plan which is getting more investigations (this is a benefit, again, OS will probably try to convince you that I said otherwise like he's been stawmanning me so far, but I
never said it wasn't a benefit) just doesn't stack up to my plans distinct, guaranteed, MEASURABLE benefit of removing scum + any scum powers X1 might have as a fake claiming cop right from the get go.
OS thinks a couple investigations are more useful than getting rid of a potential scum PR right away. That's literally what the debate has come down to.
He argues that cop is far and away the best role in mafia always forever. He's literally been arguing that. It simply isn't true. He calls me paranoid for literally just saying "hey guys, maybe we shouldn't ****ride cop investigations without knowing more about how reliable they are". I call him delusional for thinking that it isn't likely that we don't have a single one of the following roles in this game: Godfather/Tailor/Lawyer/Framer/Not-normal-sanity-cop/redirector.
I think anyone here should be able to figure out which is the more reasonable stance.
If the cop is out there, he should definitely CC X1.
Anyway, time to talk about something else.
I think Macman has some pretty nice analysis here:
http://www.smashboards.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=14319361
Everyone should read the large middle paragraph. It provides some really strong analysis regarding how OS's plan isn't nearly as pro-town as he wants you to think it is. It's subtly focuses more on getting himself [OS] in the clear, than provided the town and actually even
himself more information from the cop investigations he holds so dear. This is definitely a red flag.
It doesn't even have to be as simple as OS being a Godfather too, another oversight (or perhaps deliberate omission) on his part. He could easily be an independent, or have a lawyer as a scum partner, OR a tailor. Now just watch, OS is gonna come foaming at the mouth yelling PARANOID FF PARANOID FF, but don't let that fool you. ALL of those are absolutely
reasonable possibilities to consider, and absolutely would inform his decision to put himself into the initial investigate target pair.
Why would town OS be in such a hurry to get an investigation on himself, or put himself in the cross hairs of the scum, according to his own analysis? Seems to me that he's more worried about having his name "cleared" in the early game (which he could easily orchestrate with the proper scum tools if he's mafia or indy) and/or he's just straight up not worried about actually getting killed as a prospective investigatee. As scum, obviously his partners aren't going to kill him if that's the case.
Our disagreement about whether or not the cop should CC aside, OS's power grab and self placement into the investigative pair is about as scummy as it gets. It doesn't match up with his alleged passion for having lots of investigations to work with at all. He also has many more ways to feel safe going into an investigation than simply being town or GF, yet he makes no mention of these other possibilities.
Yeah, I'm ok with starting this wagon up.
Unvote: Kantrip
Vote: OS
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