Celebrity Rehab Mafia: Day 5 Begins! Deadline is Monday, May 28th at 11:59 PM EST!

[#HBC | J]

I think J got us the deadline, if so I'll move to the same, Kanty and Vinyl, however I need to consider how people are reacting to this claim for a sec.

Aka, don't like how PL is approaching this.

Not trying to call you out specifically or anything RR but I gotta say these type of posts this game are not helping the cause of getting a lynch. Saying you will move one way or the other doesn't do anything, we need votes to move wagons. In order to get somewhere going, people need to start throwing their votes down more.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

If the cop is simply picking at random, then it isn't good.
If a cop actually reads people, and investigates suspicious people, then it's probably a lot more likely to hit scum than if he were to pick at random.

Ok cool, if the cop is good at scum hunting then he's probably more likely to hit scum. Brilliant. Riveting. Never would have thought of that.

That's not the point though. What I'm saying is even IF he's investigating scummy people, there's a pretty ****ing good chance that that player is indy (again, assuming indies come up innocent as they typically do) or otherwise has means of messing with the investigation, thus, significantly mitigating just how useful the cop can really be. This needs to be thoroughly understood.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Vote: Kantrip

Back to my old wagon. Anyone else down with this?

 

[Overswarm]

Except your math doesn't take into account the whole picture.

Who's to say you're automatically going to die in the night? That's an unwarranted assumption. You think it's that unlikely that we have a protective role in this game? You're also contradicting yourself from earlier when you said you LIKED the WIFOM scenario we put mafia in. What the **** man?

And who's to say you're guaranteed to get accurate investigations? They're not as valuable as you think. Even if we forget about tailors/framers/lawyers/RBers since we're assuming you're the "hidden" cop, we still have to consider Godfathers/Millers/insanity/naivete/paranoia. Again, you act like we're trading some incredible info package later in the game for a scum kill, when it's more like we're trading a useful but not necessarily directly useful info package for a directly useful and immediate boon NOW.

Also, you are completely neglecting the undeniable town boon we get from getting a free scum lynch. Who knows what power X1 might have as scum? If could be incredibly powerful, and even if it isn't, taking ANY scum tools away from them is going to have distinct benefit to the town. You can't deny this, and you haven't even CONSIDERED that possibility? What's with the one track mind all of a sudden? Don't pretend you're giving us an accurate picture of the trade we'd be making and then completely ****ing fail to bring in all reasonable considerations. That's just straight up misleading.

FoS: OS

And why again do you all of a sudden get to pick who the choices for the claimed cop are? Like what? This screams attempt at an early game power grab amidst near-deadline chaos.

Acting decisively and quickly is one thing. Throwing power into people's hands arbitrarily just because we're running out of time and letting people unilaterally direct the game is just ****ing reckless.

The way I see it, we need to focus on getting an extension and waiting for a potential CC. If we get the CC, X1's gone and we move from there. If we don't and we get an extension, we'll put together another wagon. If we don't get an extension, I'm fine with letting it go to no lynch. Much smarter move then trying to get some random lynch without time to even discuss it.

Missing the whole picture?

If the cop CCs, we lose the cop.

That's it.

If X1 is mafia claiming cop, we have a guaranteed way of determining what alignment he is, and mafia has to gamble on whether or not they want to visit him. RB or NKill can both be watched by a watcher, either of which can give us an easy lynch target.

A cop is a HUGE advantage. HUGE.

17 man game. Assume two kills a day/night, just to make the cop less of an advantage.

He lasts two nights, so does his people he looked at.

17-15-13.

13 left. He claims two people as innocent, getting no guilties.

3/13 are now guaranteed town while mafia is still attempting to kill the cop. That's huge. For the next THREE PHASES we know who mafia needs to kill.


Losing a cop is a big, big deal. The cop is broken as a role in general.

CCing a cop on D1 is always, always a bad idea. It'd be better for us to lynch someone else and then at least get an investigation or two off. We know who X1 is. We can kill him whenever we want. Absolutely whenever we want, just bam. Dead X1. In a 17 man game it is highly likely we'll have observing roles that can confirm what he does.



And why do I get to choose who he investigates? Because I'm Overswarm and I said so. Macman is a ghost and I'm the one who suggested it, and I haven't contributed much either. Game theory indicates that the mafia's optimal play is to NKill whoever X1-12 is investigating so they don't have to waste their roleblock (if they have one), but they have to know who it is.

Showing who X1-12 would be investigating allows us to give a fair trade to mafia. They have a 50% chance of killing who X1-12 is investigating, we get to decide who they kill. In this case, myself and macman, neither of which have said enough or done enough to be condemned.

Without directing X1-12, our observing roles can't determine if he's a lying sneak. If I say he investigates me or macman, he investigates me or macman. He doesn't get a choice. If he investigates someone else, someone is going to track him visiting that person for sure. We'll see who he visits and be able to call him out on not following orders. If he's not following orders, he's dead.


If you think I'm scum, you must be posturing I'm also a Godfather or X1-12 and I are scummates.

I don't think either of those are really an issue as this is on D1.

 

[Pink Lemonade]

Ok, just in break. I have decided.

X1 can live. I thought it was weird he came late to claim and was avoiding the thread to stall to cause the town to scramble. Anyways, with his V/la it makes sense why he couldn't claim right away. I don't agree with his 'ignoring' pressure especially since he is the type who has lynched me for 'answering a question that wasn't mine to answer' and for handwaving the pressure on myself. (X1 feel free to show the difference if you think there is one)

So, I see a move to Kantrip. I'm fine with that.

Unvote Vote: Kantrip

 

[Pink Lemonade]

Quickly skimming for notes. Since I have little time. : 3

 

[Pink Lemonade]

I think J got us the deadline, if so I'll move to the same, Kanty and Vinyl, however I need to consider how people are reacting to this claim for a sec.

Aka, don't like how PL is approaching this.

What do you mean?

 

[Pink Lemonade]

Alright going back to class. If Chaco is a bigger wagon I'll join. Either or is fine with me. I'll be back around 9:00 Pm - 9:30 Pm.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Holy ****, I can't tell if you're trolling me or are literally trying to me subversive. This is all crap.

Missing the whole picture?

If the cop CCs, we lose the cop.

That's it.

If X1 is mafia claiming cop, we have a guaranteed way of determining what alignment he is, and mafia has to gamble on whether or not they want to visit him. RB or NKill can both be watched by a watcher, either of which can give us an easy lynch target.

How are guaranteed to lose the cop if he CCs any more than we are guaranteed to lose X1 now if he's the real cop? You don't just get to pick "oh, if X1 is legit mafia has to deal with protection WIFOM, but if we get a CC, that doesn't apply to the real cop who just CC'd, so he's guaranteed dead". Like that's seriously what you're arguing. What. The. ****.

If a cop CC's we GET TO LYNCH X1 and that claimed cop is IN THE EXACT SAME POSITION WE'RE ASSUMING X1 IS IN NOW SINCE WE THINK HE'S THE COP.

Literally everything you said in your last paragraph here applies to a cop CC if we then lynch X1 and he comes up scum. Like holy **** please stop trolling.

A cop is a HUGE advantage. HUGE.

17 man game. Assume two kills a day/night, just to make the cop less of an advantage.

He lasts two nights, so does his people he looked at.

17-15-13.

13 left. He claims two people as innocent, getting no guilties.

3/13 are now guaranteed town while mafia is still attempting to kill the cop. That's huge. For the next THREE PHASES we know who mafia needs to kill.

Losing a cop is a big, big deal. The cop is broken as a role in general.

Assumptions assumptions assumptions. How are cop innocents (assuming two innocents) guaranteed town? Like what? Are you just conveniently forgetting all the **** I mentioned like naivete/insanity/tailers/lawyers/godfathers? You are NOT representing this accurately at all. You're painting a BEST CASE SCENARIO BASED ON ASSUMPTIONS WE HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO ROOM TO MAKE AT THIS JUNCTURE. Why in the world would we assume early game cop investigations are legit without knowing exactly what we're up against?

Mafia does not need to ****ing kill those people he got innocents on, at least not until late game assuming they aren't killed or removed by another anti town faction if one exists. Also, what happens if one of those innocents is a GF or a laywer'd scum inno? What if the cop is naive and is giving innos on scum? Scum certainly doesn't have any need to gun for them then. Also, this entire line of logic ASSUMES there's a protective role in the game since you're saying the mafia is still trying to kill the cop. This directly contradicts your earlier assumption that anyone who CCs X1 is as good as dead! Like come on dude.

Even if we assume that the cop hasn't CC'd and is safely acquiring investigations, the boon you're claiming we get isn't anywhere close to as useful as you're portraying it. Again, those investigations don't necessarily have legs. We have no way to know how reliable they will be. What we DO know, is that lynching a scum on D1 is a direct, potentially massively helpful boon.

And again, you're now conveniently abandoning this whole "it creates a WIFOM scenario for the mafia" line you took earlier. What happened to that? You must realize that if we do have the good fortune to have a doctor in the game, our cop can easily get those 2 investigations you have such a hard on for right? On top of that, we might even get the scum to take the risk and end up losing a kill!

Cop CAN be a broken role with enough knowledge of what is in the setup. You are absolutely in NO place to make that judgement, and frankly, I'm extremely appalled that you, someone who I thought had a good head on his shoulders when it game to mafia game design, would think that you can say that now, definitively.

CCing a cop on D1 is always, always a bad idea. It'd be better for us to lynch someone else and then at least get an investigation or two off. We know who X1 is. We can kill him whenever we want. Absolutely whenever we want, just bam. Dead X1. In a 17 man game it is highly likely we'll have observing roles that can confirm what he does.

This is just about as short sighted as it gets. If we can find out he's scum NOW and lynch him, why the hell wouldn't we? Again, if we get a CC, we likely have power roles that can either protect that CC, OR, if we don't, we might have someone like a watcher like you're suggesting who can catch scum going after the claimed cop. In those scenarios we're getting 1 FREE SCUM LYNCH + a potential 2nd caught in the act of going after the cop OR negating a scum kill if they fall for the WIFOM of a protective role.

In you scenario what do we get? We get "confirmation" predicated on this lofty sense of "oh we'll have another role confirm him" and open up ourselves to a potential mislynch. We're not even guaranteed to get more investigations with your plan. Like how is CCing a claimed cop not obviously the smarter, safer option?

And why do I get to choose who he investigates? Because I'm Overswarm and I said so. Macman is a ghost and I'm the one who suggested it, and I haven't contributed much either. Game theory indicates that the mafia's optimal play is to NKill whoever X1-12 is investigating so they don't have to waste their roleblock (if they have one), but they have to know who it is.

Yeah well you said so but that doesn't mean it's gonna happen. Also, you're game theory is wrong too.

If anything they would WANT to roleblock the cop and shut him down. That can't be stopped. There's no WIFOM there. They get GUARANTEED results by shutting down the cop with a roleblocker, assuming no inducer, which I think is more reasonable than assuming no doctor. RB the cop and make him an effective VT until something better comes up. The kill is the better move to do randomly, because it's much harder to punish predictable roleblocking. There's basically only 1 likely role that can stop predictable RBing (inducer) whereas there are a ton of protective roles that can shut down predictable killing. They're better off using their kill to kill someone they perceive as a threat regardless of their role. You can't shut down a straight up vocal day threat with role blocking, so you kill it. You CAN shut down a cop with a simple RBing. You're game theory is completely ****ing backward.

You're literally saying that RANDOMLY roleblocking is better when randomly roleblocking is far more likely to ineffectual by hitting a passive role or something weak, whereas killing randomly at the very least accomplishes all that and MORE, and avoid the whole WIFOM scenario of an obvious doc protect.

Showing who X1-12 would be investigating allows us to give a fair trade to mafia. They have a 50% chance of killing who X1-12 is investigating, we get to decide who they kill. In this case, myself and macman, neither of which have said enough or done enough to be condemned.

Without directing X1-12, our observing roles can't determine if he's a lying sneak. If I say he investigates me or macman, he investigates me or macman. He doesn't get a choice. If he investigates someone else, someone is going to track him visiting that person for sure. We'll see who he visits and be able to call him out on not following orders. If he's not following orders, he's dead.

I never had a problem with directing the cop, mind you. I was simply pointing out that you just asserting yourself as the arbitrator of that is stupid and literally just you power grabbing.

If you think I'm scum, you must be posturing I'm also a Godfather or X1-12 and I are scummates.

I don't think either of those are really an issue as this is on D1.

How exactly is this the case? I have to think you're the Godfather and I have to think you're partnered with X1? What?

Last time I checked, if I do think you're scum, I'm the one who decides why I think that and what scum you are/who your partners are.

Are you trying to look scummy by trying to pigeon hole me?

People need to be reading this exchange BTW. Like anyone skimming this is ****ing up.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Another thing I forgot to mention in terms of the "game theory" section:

RBing a cop prevents the scum from being forced to go after the potential investigations. By RBing, they accomplish the exact same goal (preventing the cop from acquiring a stock of living investigated players [by stopping the investigation in the first place]) and then are at liberty to kill whomever they please, thus, allowing them to accomplish other pro-scum goals (like killing people with threatening reads and the like) and straight up just being less predictable and thus, less likely to have their kill stopped.

Your analysis is ****ing pant on head ******** right now. I seriously feel like I'm being trolled.

 

[vanderzant]

Vote: Deadline extension

Reading up.

 

[Kantrip]

Havent read, but saw votes going to me.

We need a different lynch, trust me. I propose falling back to Vinyl. Useless regardless, dont want in LyLo, etc. Please.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

For the love of god DO NOT SKIM OS's POST NOR MINE.

I know they're long. It's all important discourse though. For realz. Man the **** up.

 

[Kantrip]

Trying to post mobile, just want to say I love this post.

Vote: Vinyl.

I have skimmed the game up to now and properly read the posts of people who've stood out. This isn't finished because I really need to read several people's posts to get a proper read on them (most importantly FF's and Vand's) but right now I'd rather push nails through my eyeballs than read all his posts. I'm going to go shower and eat some dinner and will be back in an hour, maybe 1 and a half to finish this post, but here is the start of it


Chaco/Vinyl if it wasn't abundantly clear they need to go considering they have contributed nothing the entire game, despite, as a I previously mentioned, Chaco having time to argue semantics with OS and then throw a hissyfit when he gets attacked and then deflecting massively. Vinyl then chooses to replace in and subsequently not post a single thing until I come back from V/LA and claim cop, stating he's been busy, and defending Chaco for the same reasons. This guy seriously volunteers to replace in then doesn't post anything for 3 days, only popping up when he's attacked? Lynch this please

J's decision (Even though he accepted the day needed to end and town needed direction) to instead of pushing with any gusto the wagon which he prefers over mine to spend his time arguing with Vand over his RR read and Kant with J's kafka read, only then to jump on me without any explanation DESPITE the fact that he even asked Kantrip for a reason to jump on my wagon and then disagreed with the reasoning. Its literally like J was fishing for reasons to jump on my wagon, didn't get any then jumped on earlier. Damn scummy from J and even more incriminating if Vinyl flips scum.

Marshy also needs some serious attention for what I've posted just above. See you guys in an hour or so

 

[Kantrip]

I'm not skimming, I'm just on my crappy phone at school.

Will read those posts.

 

[Kantrip]

Vote Deadline extension

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Deadline set for 4/10 at 11:59 PM! With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch!

frozenflame751- (0)
KevinM- (1) Overswarm
X1-12- (4) Macman, Marshy, Kantrip, KevinM
Rajam- (1) Orboknown
Rockin- (1) Chaco
Dark Horse- (0)
Macman- (0)
marshy- (0)
Vinyl.- (5) Kafkaesque, X1-12, J, Kantrip, Red Ruy
Pink Lemonade (Ranmaru/July hydra)- (1) Dark Horse
Kafkaesque- (0)
J- (0)
Red Ryu- (0)
Orboknown- (1) Rajam
Kantrip- (4) Rockin, Vanderzant, Frozenflame, Pink Lemonade
Vanderzant- (0)
Overswarm- (0)

Not Voting- (0)

Request Deadline Extension- (7) Overswarm, X1-12, Red Ruy, Pink Lemonade, Kafkaesque, frozenflame751, Dark Horse.

Deadline is OFFICIALLY extended to 4/13 at 11:59 PM EST!

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Not trying to call you out specifically or anything RR but I gotta say these type of posts this game are not helping the cause of getting a lynch. Saying you will move one way or the other doesn't do anything, we need votes to move wagons. In order to get somewhere going, people need to start throwing their votes down more.

I know, I went out drinking with a friend who was down int he dumps.

I still am here.

So ya bye bye Chaco slot.

Vote: Vinyl

 

[#HBC | marshy]

a lot of dumb **** has been said that i currently dont have time to tackle. for now ill just hop this wagon

vote vinyl

 

[Pink Lemonade]

Thoughts on kantrip?

 

[#HBC | Dark Horse]

I would much rather have vinyl go than kantrip.

Vote: Vinyl

 

[Kantrip]

VINYL IS AT L-1.

We just got an extension. No need for this lynch so quickly.

Unvote

 

[vanderzant]

Ok, going to join team Frozen in the motion/notion that if there is a Cop they should CC now. It's impossible for us to know how useful a Cop actually is in this set up (17 person game means theres probably a **** ton of PRs running around) but lynching confirmed scum on Day 1 is the best possible outcome for Town.

If x1 is scum, we have an incredible amount of information that is going to positively influence our lynches on Day 2/3/etc, not to mention helping our PRs make better informed decisions as soon as toNight.

OS I can see where you're coming from with not wanting to out the Cop so we can get a few investigations off, but if x1 is scum I'd much prefer that to be confirmed now, and then we can just scum hunt our way to victory rather than running around in the dark like we are currently

tl;dr Scum lynch now means our n1/d2/n2/d3/etc. are much stronger because we're informing our choices off of a scum lynch. Scum lynch later means we're more likely to shoot ourselves in the foot because we're assuming x1 is town when he might not be.

 

[Kantrip]

I agree with cop CCing if they are out there.

I agree with Overswarm either not thinking at all (unlike him) or being scum. His suggestions were VERY scummy, and I'll outline why after some chores. At home now.

 

[#HBC | marshy]

VINYL IS AT L-1.

We just got an extension. No need for this lynch so quickly.

Unvote

what the ****?

this town lacks testicular fortitude

 

[Kantrip]

what the ****?

this town lacks testicular fortitude

I was legitimately concerned about a quick lynch. The MOD missed my vote and votes were piling on really fast.

 

[#HBC | marshy]

but why cant he just die

 

[Overswarm]

Holy ****, I can't tell if you're trolling me or are literally trying to me subversive. This is all crap.

How are guaranteed to lose the cop if he CCs any more than we are guaranteed to lose X1 now if he's the real cop? You don't just get to pick "oh, if X1 is legit mafia has to deal with protection WIFOM, but if we get a CC, that doesn't apply to the real cop who just CC'd, so he's guaranteed dead". Like that's seriously what you're arguing. What. The. ****.

If the cop CCs, it means a cop that wouldn't normally have to claim is out in the open. If X1 is the cop, he's already out in the open and we can't DO anything about it.

They're apples and oranges, FF. You can't say "oh, well one guy is in this situation but he might not be town. If he is it's a bad situation, but it could be a scum ploy! Let's put another townie IN THE SAME BAD SITUATION just to catch him!" when we can catch him in a multitude of other ways WITHOUT having our cop CC.

Plus, if X1 IS the cop? Mafia either have to leave him alive or do the job for us, both of which are in our favor.

If a cop CC's we GET TO LYNCH X1 and that claimed cop is IN THE EXACT SAME POSITION WE'RE ASSUMING X1 IS IN NOW SINCE WE THINK HE'S THE COP.

If we think he's the cop, we shouldn't lynch him.

If we don't think he's the cop, the cop shouldn't counter claim.

There are many other ways to find if he's telling the truth or not, and we'll definitely be able to lynch him further days down the road if he survives that long.

You really think X1 as a cop would actually survive for more than a few night phases? I'd personally love to see them roleblock him every night or miss their kill once or twice when a doc protects him. I think that'd be fantastic. Much better than killing one scum and saying "okay now what". Know what's even better? Killing X1 on a further Day phase when we discover he's not a cop while our real cop is still alive, and then lynching X1 with several days worth of X1 posts to read over. That's better.

Literally everything you said in your last paragraph here applies to a cop CC if we then lynch X1 and he comes up scum. Like holy **** please stop trolling.

But the initiation of the situation is NOT the same. X1 was pushed into a corner and you're asking for one of the strongest roles in mafia to commit suicide. We don't know if they can RB just like we don't know if we can protect or observe. All we know is that mafia would ALWAYS want the cop dead more than just about anyone.

Assumptions assumptions assumptions. How are cop innocents (assuming two innocents) guaranteed town? Like what? Are you just conveniently forgetting all the **** I mentioned like naivete/insanity/tailers/lawyers/godfathers? You are NOT representing this accurately at all. You're painting a BEST CASE SCENARIO BASED ON ASSUMPTIONS WE HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO ROOM TO MAKE AT THIS JUNCTURE. Why in the world would we assume early game cop investigations are legit without knowing exactly what we're up against?

Occam's razor. If a cop gets an inno, you don't lynch an inno. Plain and simple. Yes, he could be multiple things. You could also be a hidden mafia member and not know it until your trigger is set, like Spiderman in Villains mafia. Maybe you should modkill yourself?

Playing the guessing game is idiotic. A cop clear is a cop clear. You want to lynch someone who is given an innocent? You lynch them further down the line, because nine times out of ten his stuff is legit. More importantly, you can figure out pretty quickly what the cop's thing is when he gets an inno on one guy and a guilty on another.

Mafia does not need to ****ing kill those people he got innocents on, at least not until late game assuming they aren't killed or removed by another anti town faction if one exists. Also, what happens if one of those innocents is a GF or a laywer'd scum inno? What if the cop is naive and is giving innos on scum? Scum certainly doesn't have any need to gun for them then. Also, this entire line of logic ASSUMES there's a protective role in the game since you're saying the mafia is still trying to kill the cop. This directly contradicts your earlier assumption that anyone who CCs X1 is as good as dead! Like come on dude.

You're grasping at straws. What if the watcher is paranoid and receives bad results? What if the doctor actually is a beacon and moves the night kill to that player? What if X1 claimed cop but is actually a princess and gives mafia the win on Night 1 if he is lynched on D1?

You don't know the setup and the options are limitless.

Occam's Razor. The simplest solution is more than likely correct, and the simplest solution is that X1 is a cop and we can use that to our advantage REGARDLESS of his alignment.

Even if we assume that the cop hasn't CC'd and is safely acquiring investigations, the boon you're claiming we get isn't anywhere close to as useful as you're portraying it. Again, those investigations don't necessarily have legs. We have no way to know how reliable they will be. What we DO know, is that lynching a scum on D1 is a direct, potentially massively helpful boon.

You are REALLY stuck on investigations not being reliable and wanting to lynch X1. You're being a little paranoid here; no one here is going to agree with you and say "yeah man, cop is a bad role". It's the most powerful role town can ever have, period, end of story. There is not a single standard role that is better.

And again, you're now conveniently abandoning this whole "it creates a WIFOM scenario for the mafia" line you took earlier. What happened to that? You must realize that if we do have the good fortune to have a doctor in the game, our cop can easily get those 2 investigations you have such a hard on for right? On top of that, we might even get the scum to take the risk and end up losing a kill!

Cop CAN be a broken role with enough knowledge of what is in the setup. You are absolutely in NO place to make that judgement, and frankly, I'm extremely appalled that you, someone who I thought had a good head on his shoulders when it game to mafia game design, would think that you can say that now, definitively.

I can't say it definitively. I'm just smart enough to know that on Day 2 or Day 3, I can. You're wanting to throw a weapon out an airlock because you just aren't quite sure how big a bang it's going to make. That's foolish.

You want to assume X1 has an awesome mafia ability? Cool. But we don't know he's mafia. He doesn't even have a case presented against him that I've seen.

This is just about as short sighted as it gets. If we can find out he's scum NOW and lynch him, why the hell wouldn't we? Again, if we get a CC, we likely have power roles that can either protect that CC, OR, if we don't, we might have someone like a watcher like you're suggesting who can catch scum going after the claimed cop. In those scenarios we're getting 1 FREE SCUM LYNCH + a potential 2nd caught in the act of going after the cop OR negating a scum kill if they fall for the WIFOM of a protective role.

But we gain nothing, absolutely nothing, from putting our cop in danger now. We can kill X1 later and get more advantages than killing him now. The only exception is if X1 has some super mafia ability that's going to wreck us, but again, it's a gamble for him to use it. If he uses one of his abilities on someone we don't want and is observed doing so, he'd be dead on D2 and our cop is still hidden.

In you scenario what do we get? We get "confirmation" predicated on this lofty sense of "oh we'll have another role confirm him" and open up ourselves to a potential mislynch. We're not even guaranteed to get more investigations with your plan. Like how is CCing a claimed cop not obviously the smarter, safer option?

Because leaving the cop hidden is the smarter, safer option.

Yeah well you said so but that doesn't mean it's gonna happen. Also, you're game theory is wrong too.

If anything they would WANT to roleblock the cop and shut him down. That can't be stopped. There's no WIFOM there. They get GUARANTEED results by shutting down the cop with a roleblocker, assuming no inducer, which I think is more reasonable than assuming no doctor. RB the cop and make him an effective VT until something better comes up. The kill is the better move to do randomly, because it's much harder to punish predictable roleblocking. There's basically only 1 likely role that can stop predictable RBing (inducer) whereas there are a ton of protective roles that can shut down predictable killing. They're better off using their kill to kill someone they perceive as a threat regardless of their role. You can't shut down a straight up vocal day threat with role blocking, so you kill it. You CAN shut down a cop with a simple RBing. You're game theory is completely ****ing backward.

You're literally saying that RANDOMLY roleblocking is better when randomly roleblocking is far more likely to ineffectual by hitting a passive role or something weak, whereas killing randomly at the very least accomplishes all that and MORE, and avoid the whole WIFOM scenario of an obvious doc protect.

We have a watcher or tracker. Suddenly, they lose their roleblocker mafia when before we would have just lynched the town cop D1 and gotten absolutely nothing for it.

Problem?

I never had a problem with directing the cop, mind you. I was simply pointing out that you just asserting yourself as the arbitrator of that is stupid and literally just you power grabbing.

How exactly is this the case? I have to think you're the Godfather and I have to think you're partnered with X1? What?

Do you have better players? I picked good choices, and added myself as insurance. If I can be investigated, that gives info to everyone about me doesn't it?

And it's "or". Godfather or partnered with x1. Giving away either would be foolhardy.

Last time I checked, if I do think you're scum, I'm the one who decides why I think that and what scum you are/who your partners are.

Not when I'm scum, no. I would decide for you.

Are you trying to look scummy by trying to pigeon hole me?

People need to be reading this exchange BTW. Like anyone skimming this is ****ing up.

Your analysis is ****ing pant on head ******** right now. I seriously feel like I'm being trolled.

You feel like you're being trolled?

Another thing I forgot to mention in terms of the "game theory" section:

RBing a cop prevents the scum from being forced to go after the potential investigations. By RBing, they accomplish the exact same goal (preventing the cop from acquiring a stock of living investigated players [by stopping the investigation in the first place]) and then are at liberty to kill whomever they please, thus, allowing them to accomplish other pro-scum goals (like killing people with threatening reads and the like) and straight up just being less predictable and thus, less likely to have their kill stopped.

This is you:

So the **** what if they waste their RB on him? Other town roles are out there NOT being roleblocked, and we're drawing a strong scum tool into blocking a not so particularly powerful role all things considered, since so much **** can **** with a cop.

You're contradicting yourself pretty readily.

If X1 is the cop and they roleblock him, he can't investigate. You're fine with that. If we have observation roles which are just as common as a cop, we can SEE WHO VISITS X1, which should be no one but observation roles.

If I can see who visits X1 and I see Marshy visit X1 and then X1 is roleblocked, we find a scum.

We don't know if we have observation roles, and we don't know if they have a roleblocking role. The danger for them is that they don't know if we have one; the danger for us is that we don't know if we can catch them.

If they don't? They are left with no choice but to hope he's insane/naive/whatever... or kill him. But if we have a doc and the doc protects X1, which he should given that his odds are 1/16 during the night phase of picking the right one at random but pretty damn high if X1 is really the cop, the mafia lose a NKill AND we get a clear AND we get a cleared cop. That's a 3 man swing FF, and that's huge.

If X1 is mafia ****ing with us, he's gotta keep up this charade all game. If there's an observation role watching who X1 visits and he visits one guy and says the alignment of someone else, he's toast. Visits two people? Toast. Visits someone we don't tell him to visit? Dead man walking. He can't gamble on it as town or mafia.

In other words, the moment we want to kill him we can. If mafia are killing his clears, hooray for us. We're determining who they kill. Also huge. If mafia aren't, then the mid game is going to be X1 and all of his clears; at that point X1 is a viable lynch just to see his flip, and suddenly we get a barrage of clears or a scum flip later in the day.

Leaving him alive gives us the most options and the most power. The scum have to guess just as much as we do, except they know his alignment. Advantage them, sure. But if we lynch him and he's the cop we're just doing their job for them and we gain nothing.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Marshy is pretty funny lol, still not gonna QL.

And as for FF v OS, I don't think it's necessarily alignment based since it's a lot of game theory at this stage. I'll delve deeper later, just not now or J will tell me to log off immediately lol.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

OS tell me.

Leaving him alive gives us the most options and the most power. The scum have to guess just as much as we do, except they know his alignment. Advantage them, sure. But if we lynch him and he's the cop we're just doing their job for them and we gain nothing.

Pretty sure FF's stance was getting a CC, but at the same time a lynch was only possible if someone CCs so why say this?

 

[Kantrip]

Let's say we ignore all of OS's walls and random examples for a moment. It boils down to guaranteed scum VS cop results.

HOW STUPID IS THIS? What do cop results give you? Near guaranteed scum. NOT EVEN fully guaranteed scum. What does the CC give us? Even MORE guaranteed scum with WAY fewer risks. OS is suggesting a plan in which we take away a potential guaranteed scum and give one player (himself) the power to decide where the cop goes, making us very susceptible to misdirection from multiple sources. It's the stupidest thing I've heard yet, and that's including things I've said.

Now, why is OS suggesting we leave X1 alive with no CCs, with the condition that OS can direct him?

OS Town: Actually wants the power of directing the cop to targets he finds scummy. Doesn't realize that the result is so susceptible to framing/tailoring/etc.

OS Scum: Directing the cop to targets such as his framer scumbuddy's target, his godfather buddy, his tailor scumbuddy's target, or just to someone way off base so cop is guaranteed not to find mafia.

 

[Kantrip]

but why cant he just die

Same reason X1 couldn't "just die", even though you wanted that too. Guess what? Turns out we switched the lynch off of him.

Playing in Awkward Moments and Moderator Mafia were two different cases that taught me how stupid lynches without claims/quicklynchs are.

 

[Kantrip]

I forgot to give my opinion besides just weighing the options.

Personally, I dislike what OS is pushing for right now, and I haven't read his walls in their entirety yet but I can't see how they're necessary. I've got my eye on him at this point.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Deadline set for 4/10 at 11:59 PM! With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch!

frozenflame751- (0)
KevinM- (1) Overswarm
X1-12- (3) Macman, Kantrip, KevinM
Rajam- (1) Orboknown
Rockin- (1) Chaco
Dark Horse- (0)
Macman- (0)
marshy- (0)
Vinyl.- (6) Kafkaesque, X1-12, J, Red Ruy, Marshy, Dark Horse
Pink Lemonade (Ranmaru/July hydra)- (0)
Kafkaesque- (0)
J- (0)
Red Ryu- (0)
Orboknown- (1) Rajam
Kantrip- (4) Rockin, Vanderzant, Frozenflame, Pink Lemonade
Vanderzant- (0)
Overswarm- (0)

Not Voting- (0)

 

[Kantrip]

Oh there's less votes than I thought.

Vote: Vinyl.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Kantrip, it's possible OS is thinking of the long game, which is where an X1 paper trail and fake results are useful. I do not however think this is better than guaranteed scum D1/D2.

 

[vanderzant]

@Vandie's 576: Uh you like Inferno? Okay.

What exactly don't you like about the Inferno/X1 wagon? What do you think of the accusation that Inferno, right before he replaced out, made a lame vote on RR, and was unnecessarily abrasive? What do you make of Inferno replacing out right after catching heat, if anything at all?

That it was just about based off of nothing. I didn't mind the RR vote. People are just reading abrasiveness/lameness/scumyness into Inferno's play that isn't there. Sure, it can be interpreted as scummy (like just about any action) but considering everything else that's happened, it's unwarranted because it's based on an incredibly minor thing (that I don't see as scummy in the first place) that's snowballed into a full blown d1 lynch wagon out of a lack of other suspects.

Inferno replacing out after catching heat? I don't remember nor didn't try to look at why he replaced out. Are you suggesting this as meta on Inferno as himself? If so I'd like to see it substantiated, if not I'll continue to not read into it.

What do you make of a dumb town DH?

He's looking into places and actually pushing an agenda, even if I'm not exactly agreeing with everything he's saying; this is opposed to SF scum where he just flaked out under any sort of pressure and gave bad responses that didn't make sense. He's a completely different player here and I don't think he's good enough (no offense DH <3) to recognize a flaw in his scum playstyle and immediately rectify it.

Why is OS a town read. Simply because you haven't seen him "trying?" Same question goes to you X1 if you see this.

This is based on my read at the time (aka I wasn't going off of much) and if anything's its changed back to null/confused, but at that point OS hadn't made any attempt to manipulate or take control of the game (sort of what x1 pointed out that he didn't seem to have a plan). Not to base everything on meta but it's exactly how he played in Cartoon Cartoons mafia (you were scum with me there iirc?). So yeah more a vibe off his play rather than anything, but not enough to make me act on it.

Btw is your feelings off oddness on my analysis coming solely from my #476? Or is it based on all the analysis I've done?

Concerning a Kantrip/Vinyl lynch I'd still rather opt for Kantrip toDay.

 

[vanderzant]

Leaving him alive gives us the most options and the most power. The scum have to guess just as much as we do, except they know his alignment. Advantage them, sure. But if we lynch him and he's the cop we're just doing their job for them and we gain nothing.

Afterthought, but I doubt mafia would CC to get a cop lynch. I'm gonna trust in Gorf that he wouldn't design a set up where mafia is put at a disadvantage from the Town Cop claiming D1. So if x1 is the Cop (and so far there's nothing really to suggest he isn't) he's out in the open and his usefulness is probably ****ed. So as far as I'm concerned, if he is the cop he isn't being lynched.

 

[Overswarm]

OS tell me.



Pretty sure FF's stance was getting a CC, but at the same time a lynch was only possible if someone CCs so why say this?

FF is approaching this from the standpoint that X1-12 is scum and needs to be proven innocent. I'm doing the opposite.

 

[Overswarm]

Afterthought, but I doubt mafia would CC to get a cop lynch. I'm gonna trust in Gorf that he wouldn't design a set up where mafia is put at a disadvantage from the Town Cop claiming D1. So if x1 is the Cop (and so far there's nothing really to suggest he isn't) he's out in the open and his usefulness is probably ****ed. So as far as I'm concerned, if he is the cop he isn't being lynched.

17 man game with a doc and a cop would result in "follow the cop". If he ****ed up and made that combo, I'm all for it.

Either way, lynching him gives us nothing if he's town and helps scum tremendously. Leaving him alive has serious potential gains and we can't lose much more than we'd lose anyway by lynching him.