BiM 2013 | Game Over!

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Kantrip, can you answer some of my questions to you littered throughout D1 ?

The most important one is how you felt I was treating you different and why that made you weary, when at the time I think I posted in your general direction like , once. I think. I'd quote it but I'm done for tonight.

 

[Kantrip]

I'll pick them up as I read through and try to answer em

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Umm guys, if we miss shoot on a VT or a bomb that hits a VT, we have to quick shoot tomarrow.

Just food for thought.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

God, I don't like the fact we can missshot once and we lose, uggg....

 

[ranmaru]

Then safer to shoot Kantrip if you don't want to shoot someone without claiming.

Ryu, what DO you think of Kantrip's claim, and that along with his play?

 

[#HBC | Joker]

Speaking of Joker, what got hims caught as scum in Persona Mafia ?

I didn't get caught. 2 of my scummates, Executioner Kary and Overswarm both got converted to the indy faction, and they singlehandedly lynched me without any town votes in the endgame.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Then safer to shoot Kantrip if you don't want to shoot someone without claiming.

Ryu, what DO you think of Kantrip's claim, and that along with his play?

Actually safest is to shoot Badwolf, it avoids the situation of the Assassin quick shooting tomorrow and ending the game while keeping the cop result on Rake if he flips town, we'd have less clears but we wouldn't auto lose on shooting wrong today while gaining more information.

Kantrips claim? Kinda confusing when I think about how he approached D1, but I got mixed tells of him having a gun and not having a gun.

 

[ranmaru]

Yet the thing is I don't have a problem with Bad at all. Unless there is an inconsistency with his play as a Cop.

So here is what I think:

Safe: Badwolf
Scummy: Kantrip
Inactive: Frozen

Basically. I'd really rather Kantrip be shot, regardless of claim. I want you to think about your original stance on Kantrip, and ask yourself if him claiming totally makes that ok?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Man everytime I try to number crunch this set-up ends up being a loss for town off 1 misfire if situations after play right, uggg.

I'm trying to figure out the best course of action to approach this, we need 4 VTs to avoid a Quick Shot from scum ending it. Which the only solutions are.

1.) Shoot a cop.
2.) Shoot a bomb and pray it hits a cop/bomb.
3.) Shoot scum.

I know #3 is what we all want, but I am not sure that it is likely in this situation with the information we have.

~

Asking the other cop to claim doesn't work since scum just won't claim and will hide with the bombs tomorrow if we shoot one of the cops to avoid a "must quick shoot or lose situation"

A mass claim, might avoid this and put us right into a situation where we can get claim wars going and potentially catch liars a lot easier and have obvious sum quick shot by VTs if they can make it to a comp fast enough.

Hard situation, really though shooting Kantrip may not be the ideal situation if we want to avoid losing via not enough VTs unless we are 100% he is scum, which while he is my strongest pick...I'm not 100% on him so I may not want to take that risk.

Shooting badwolf still can put the second cop into a claim war, which if we call it right will ensure town wins, or at least make it easier for town to not throw it.

The issue is...we need to misshoot cop to not auto lose if we do misshoot. I'm not kidding when I am saying that shooting the claimed cop is our only way to not be put in a quick shoot one of our scum reads or auto lose tomorrow.

 

[ranmaru]

I also want you to look at my #367 before you decide.

 

[ranmaru]

Hmm. Alright then. Cool if Kantrip gets copped right?

 

[ranmaru]

Also Bomb can only hit non-bomb townies loooool bomb bomb explosion D:

 

[ranmaru]

Also, won't we be in the same situation tommorow then? Like HAFTA shoot or lose?

 

[ranmaru]

Argh I just don't want to lose a cop

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Yet the thing is I don't have a problem with Bad at all. Unless there is an inconsistency with his play as a Cop.

So here is what I think:

Safe: Badwolf
Scummy: Kantrip
Inactive: Frozen

Basically. I'd really rather Kantrip be shot, regardless of claim. I want you to think about your original stance on Kantrip, and ask yourself if him claiming totally makes that ok?

I don't either but this set-up is...very scum sided, and I didn't see it before.

Town misshooting once means if two VTs are picked up on or claim after that, town loses.

Town misshooting twice is GG in almost every situation except the cops being shot both nights.

It's strongly scum favored because town doesn't have much breathing room on mistakes since only VTs can shoot and losing two VTs over the course of Day 1 and Night 1 can potentially end the game right there if scum finds the right people to claim.

Badwolf is the best shot really if we want to get more info while not making this GG for us without a quick shot tomorrow. Either that or we get the second cop to claim and shoot them.

~

Yeah I don't like Kantrip's claim right now but shooting him may not be the best idea, if we want to win.

5VTs, if Kantrip is town we go to 4, me, Rake or Hando dies at night, Scum quick shoots one of the two left and then shoots the last person.

Then again if scum in is there, they can just random shoot a bomb, which chances are in favor of them hitting a VT.

I'm not liking these odds.

 

[ranmaru]

Then... We have to mass claim tommorow.

 

[ranmaru]

Also... if scum try to quick shoot and miss a bomb... that shows the assassin, and bam no more quick shooting...

oh and if we CAN guess who the assassin is, well no worry about quick shooting. Just night kills.

 

[ranmaru]

Also in that case... I would think Kantrip should be shot tommorow, and the cop should look else where as to not waste their action on him during the night... and possibly come out if mass claim.

 

[ranmaru]

Idea: Mass claim by saying "I can shoot" or "I can't shoot" and go from there? Y/N?

 

[ranmaru]

I dunno dude. Just decide on the path that finds us scum.

I'm going to sleep.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Also, won't we be in the same situation tommorow then? Like HAFTA shoot or lose?

No.

Shooting Badwolf, and scum shooting one of me or Rake the following night means they can't quickshoot like they can if we misshot a VT today.

 

[ranmaru]

2.) BSL*
4.) Nabe*
5.) Handorin*

BSL > Hando > Nabe.

9.) frozenflame751*
10.) Potassium

Kantrip > Frozenflame.

I think this holds the last two scum. Everyone else I'm ok with. This SHOULD hold at least one. Any thoughts, RR?

We should have a pick that we WILL shoot for tommorow so that he doesn't get investigated. I would prefer Frozen getting copped, Kantrip shot tommorow. Or shooting him today.

Also, what if we shoot the goon tommorow. Will we be in trouble for a quick shoot the next day?

 

[ranmaru]

Now I WANT to continue to progress from kantrip and look at bsl/frozen but WHY THE **** isn't he even trying to find scum, or rather, why isn't he even READING. ARGH

 

[Kantrip]

I've already said I'm going to do those. Give me a chance, this is a rough week for me. There are no deadlines in this game.

 

[ranmaru]

Alright, I'll wait.

 

[ranmaru]

I think I want either Kantrip, Frozen, or BSL shooting Badwolf if that has to happen. Thoughts?

 

[Kantrip]

Why are we shooting Badwolf again?

 

[Kantrip]

Did RR really convince himself and you that shooting our only claimed cop is actually a good idea, Ran?

 

[ranmaru]

Nah im still fine with you being shot, or frozen/bsl getting shot. But i do agree it becomes risky and bad is only a safe shot. What do you think?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

2.) BSL*
4.) Nabe*
5.) Handorin*

BSL > Hando > Nabe.

9.) frozenflame751*
10.) Potassium

Kantrip > Frozenflame.

I think this holds the last two scum. Everyone else I'm ok with. This SHOULD hold at least one. Any thoughts, RR?

We should have a pick that we WILL shoot for tommorow so that he doesn't get investigated. I would prefer Frozen getting copped, Kantrip shot tommorow. Or shooting him today.

Also, what if we shoot the goon tommorow. Will we be in trouble for a quick shoot the next day?

No, mathwise we will be safe if we shoot the goon tomarrow, the issue with the quickshot idea if we hit a VT is that is has to be the assassin, if not the same issues comes up against the day after.

This is why I am in favor of a safe shot.

However, I want us to scum hunt regardless and get info/questions at Nabe/BSL/Frozenflame/Hando.

I want them talking and info on the table to help town.

Did RR really convince himself and you that shooting our only claimed cop is actually a good idea, Ran?

Unfortunately yes....seriously number crunch this set-up right now with the knowledge that only 5 people can actually lynch.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Also the fact we 100% must shoot correctly tomorrow or we instant lose.

 

[ranmaru]

This sort of reminds me of a tournament... Have to beat a person twice to win. xD

Anyways. Are you cool with Frozen being copped, and Kantrip being shot tommorow? I don't want anyone else, unless there is a guilty on Frozen. Then I'm fine with Bsl/Hando/Nabe being looked into. (After claims and such)

Here's a good idea: Everyone hypoclaim. Basically, everyone should say "Not guilty on Frozen" if the cop got a not guilty, he can say it as well. If everyone says Not guilty, it means the cop got no guilty on Frozen. Thoughts? :D

 

[ranmaru]

(Also, I meant like in losers finals to get back to winners)

 

[ranmaru]

Another plan:

Shoot ff
cop nabe
Bad cops someone not nabe
Shoot kantrip
Hypoclaim or mass claim

Slightly riskier but i will not shed a tear and we keep both cops

And we will pretend tomorrow is lylo

 

[ranmaru]

Hypoclaim/mass claim should come before the shooting mah bad

 

[ranmaru]

Kanty how do you feel about shooting ff?

 

[Kantrip]

I won't do it before I read the thread, but I don't have a problem with it if it's what people want.

 

[ranmaru]

Alright then.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I'm in fan right now of Shooting Badwolf, not because I think he is scum, but because...now that I number crunched, it looks like it is needed.

 

[Kantrip]

Shoot BW, put another one of our VTs on CD. Let's say I do it.

Now me and RR are on CD. Let's say scum NK a VT, the next day the assassin quick-shoots the last non-CD VT.

Leaves us with:

Assassin (24hr CD)
Goon

VT (24hr CD)
VT (24hr CD)
Cop
Cop
Bomb
Bomb

All daykilling roles have an equal CD at this point, so it's a shootout for who posts the command first. If the assassin wins that shootout, they can shoot either me or RR, then NK the other one.

Boom, all VTs are dead and scum wins.

This proves that even with killing BW right now we are not safe. The ONLY ways this would be avoided are:

1. We make RR shoot again, stacking another 24hrs on him rather than spreading it out
2. We get scum