Bad Idea Mafia Redux! GAME OVER!

[eauxlune]

Eauxlane, no comment about inactivity? Super pro-scum post? Congratulations!!! You're pretty **** near top of my scumlist.

Err.. wut? I hardly see how what I said was pro-scum. It was pro-probability, and just a suggestion that I asked input for. The only scummy thing that came out of my post was you jumping on the person that everyone was pointing at for inactivity. Hoping for a quick shot to knock off another townie, Ron?

As for my inactivity, I hate posting from my phone, and the few times that I got to my laptop in the past week other people addressed what I was going to say. While I do love tropical birds and colorful cereal, this game, understandably, doesn't.

eauxlune, I disagree. Although we probably shouldn't carry the scummy guy shoots thing too far, we definitely should use it early on. It gives us some semi-clears, and it doesn't increase mafia's odds of hitting a bomb by much.

The scummy guy shoots being.. the person we all find scummy? As liggy pointed out: if that person you find scummy is a cop or a bomb, we could get screwed pretty quickly. As for confirms, aren't there more bombs + cops than scum who can't shoot? Pointing at someone and saying "we don't like you, shoot someone," seems like it would have a better chance of hurting us.
While the probabilities are more assuming that we pick randomly, which we blatantly should not and are not, having Teemo make our shots give us one less chance to mess up. It basically boils down to whether or not we want to take the risk, or take the safe route. Personally, I don't want our third day to result in a blown up rewired bomb.

 

[Nicholas1024]

@eauxlune.

Let's think about this... discarding Teemo (assuming him town at the moment. If he's godfather, we get even better odds here), and the two deaths, here's the odds.

There's a 8/16 chance we get vanilla townie and can semi-clear him, which is good.
There's a 1/16 chance we get the mafia godfather, semi-clear him, which is bad. (It's worth noting though, that this reduces the chance of a mafia alpha-strike later)
There's a 2/16 chance we get one of the other mafia members that can't shoot. So, we shoot them, which is awesome.
There's a 5/16 chance we get one of the townies that can't shoot, so we shoot them. If they're a cop, we can at least get their investigation results, if they're a bomb, at least mafia can't rewire them.

So, nearly 2/3rds of the time we get a good result from choosing who shoots, while less than 1/3rd of the time do we find a cop or a bomb. I can take those odds.

 

[mentosman8]

Meh, I'm still not a huge fan of choosing who shoots but if town ends up going with it I'll follow along. Anyway, as for a couple thoughts:

I am in agreement that Teemo's coasting is making me a bit uneasy. I'm still inclined to think town, but even with Tom being like me sometimes and not being able to get on, I know for a fact that EE has been online quite a bit, yet a post has never been made.

Also, that post by Eaux does seem a little strange. The idea limits the number of people who are potentially semi-cleared(and fully cleared as soon as we hit the GF, a huge bonus from the shots) and leaves town with a lot more confusion as the game progresses.

I'm still not sure who I would like to shoot if I decided to do so but that really doesn't surprise me. I'll keep thinkin about it and maybe be able to pull something together.

 

[Ronike]

Have you given a reason as to why choosing who shoots would be a bad idea?

Eaux, by not having the same people shoot twice, at least early game, we increase the amount of people we can trust and limit the mafia nk substantially if they want to remove those we trust. Conversly, all we accomplish by having teemo continue to shoot is have a marginally smaller chance of gf quickshooting a bomb for the win. You have to understand though, god father won't shoot unless its in lylo, in which case multiple shooters doesnt matter, or he is 100% sure someone is a bomb and its lylo with bomb kill/s, which honestly, how would he accomplish that? Even if someone claims bomb, it could easily, or even likely be a lie to draw tactician or gf shot. The fact is, your idea of reducing the chance of gf shooting a bomb by having a single shooter simply reduces our clears. Hence why it is pro-scum.

 

[eauxlune]

Also, that post by Eaux does seem a little strange. The idea limits the number of people who are potentially semi-cleared(and fully cleared as soon as we hit the GF, a huge bonus from the shots) and leaves town with a lot more confusion as the game progresses.

As soon as we hit the GF and the inheritor, that is. The mafia gets two chances to screw up. If one of them gets shot, they can continue with the same abilities until we get them again. If a bomb gets revealed due to our stupidity, six of us die in a row.

I'll address Nich when I get back from dinner. The fact that you're disregarding 3 people bugs me, though.

 

[Nicholas1024]

Eaux is really making me wonder dumb or scum. Has he been in any previous games here?

 

[Chuckie]

The essentially chaotic nature of Daykills in this game make it harder for scum to really plan anything. While I don't want people repeatedly shooting from the hip, meticulously planning everything to a T just gives mafia a blueprint with what to manipulate. More importantly, any one townie can screw the entire thing up by Daykilling early.

IMO the shear amount of Town players should make it quite difficult for scum to manipulate who is killed and who isn't.

 

[thedocsalive]

Definitely in favor of choosing/guiding who shoots, at least early on. Having different people shoot each time seems beneficial atm. While being able to shoot obviously isn't a total clear, it's about 90% with the current numbers, give or take. That's really, really helpful. I'm curious to see what eaux has defending his opinion.

Knowing Tom, I'm not particularly worried about it. Not giving him an excuse or anything, but there's been plenty of periods where Tom is all of a sudden inactive in games and is town still (most of the time). Though the fact that it's a hydra is makin' me wonder about the EE in TEEMO.

I noticed it as well but it's not a course for concern yet imo

I agree here on Teemo not being a concern yet. The meta is an interesting point that I wasn't aware of, but in general, we can be suspicious of anyone in this game, so why worry about someone who's 90% confirmed on day two?

/here

uk adventure almost done, should be able to update tomorrow

fos doc

Back from vacay. Catching up. Maybe I'll shoot, maybe I wont.

Pretty sure everyone would appreciate a post with a case before you shoot. Especially me, it would seem.

 

[mentosman8]

Have you given a reason as to why choosing who shoots would be a bad idea?

Eaux, by not having the same people shoot twice, at least early game, we increase the amount of people we can trust and limit the mafia nk substantially if they want to remove those we trust. Conversly, all we accomplish by having teemo continue to shoot is have a marginally smaller chance of gf quickshooting a bomb for the win. You have to understand though, god father won't shoot unless its in lylo, in which case multiple shooters doesnt matter, or he is 100% sure someone is a bomb and its lylo with bomb kill/s, which honestly, how would he accomplish that? Even if someone claims bomb, it could easily, or even likely be a lie to draw tactician or gf shot. The fact is, your idea of reducing the chance of gf shooting a bomb by having a single shooter simply reduces our clears. Hence why it is pro-scum.

Ronike just spelled that out so much better than I did. And to your question, I gave my thoughts on the subject way back on D1 when the idea was first brought up, Post 135. I still feel that it's too early to be potentially outting bombs/cops by choosing people to shoot.

As soon as we hit the GF and the inheritor, that is. The mafia gets two chances to screw up. If one of them gets shot, they can continue with the same abilities until we get them again. If a bomb gets revealed due to our stupidity, six of us die in a row.

I'll address Nich when I get back from dinner. The fact that you're disregarding 3 people bugs me, though.

*facepalm* Everyone who has shot when we get around to shooting the GF is cleared 100%. The inheritor is unable to shoot until the GF dies, so everyone who has shot by the point we shoot them is absolutely clear. We don't need to hit both before any shots are cleared, it's simply(assuming abilities are used), everyone who shot pre-GF death=clear, everyone who shoots between then and inheritor death=clear. Not sure how you come up with the "6 of us die in a row if a bomb gets revealed" thing either. Unless mafia got a lucky guess and rewired a bomb already, it would only be 3, and if they did 5 not 6. This is starting to sound like fearmongering because at this point in the game it is extremely unlikely that a bomb has been rewired.

 

[McCloud]

*facepalm* Everyone who has shot when we get around to shooting the GF is cleared 100%. The inheritor is unable to shoot until the GF dies, so everyone who has shot by the point we shoot them is absolutely clear. We don't need to hit both before any shots are cleared, it's simply(assuming abilities are used), everyone who shot pre-GF death=clear, everyone who shoots between then and inheritor death=clear. Not sure how you come up with the "6 of us die in a row if a bomb gets revealed" thing either. Unless mafia got a lucky guess and rewired a bomb already, it would only be 3, and if they did 5 not 6. This is starting to sound like fearmongering because at this point in the game it is extremely unlikely that a bomb has been rewired.

This.

Ok, in the aftermath of Teemo's shot, there's been a ****ton of information. Here's my lazy post without many quotes.

I'd just like to note that it does not benefit the godfather to shoot people, since he possibly needs to get off quickshots in lylo

Omnididdle is town as far as I'm concerned. This post keeps up a trend of vested interest in town play. In this game, it's far too easy to sit back and not deal with statistics and game theory.

xmfd

absolutely laughable and terrible? oooh no, you're on to me. lol.

I don't like Teemo, and I still don't. I would not mind shooting him at all. His play has been primarily Tom, not EE, and Tom is unusually snarky and defensive in this situation. Granted, he made the silly move of shooting day one, but whatever.

Thedoc I didn't really find scummy, I just picked a name at random to see how he would react. His concern over me shooting him had an air of townsidedness to it.

Anyway, at this point I'm too lazy to continue the post for now. Will be updating in several parts.

But *glee* I can never resist using powers.

daykill: Teemo

 

[eauxlune]

I was halfway through my post when I saw the daykill, so here goes after editing.

Eaux is really making me wonder dumb or scum. Has he been in any previous games here?

Was late for a dinner meeting, misread your post pertaining to percentages as ignoring the 3 players' statuses rather than excluding the three from the ratios due to their deaths and semi-confirmation.

I'm just going to post from my laptop now. Makes things less cluttered with tabbing to make sure I'm accounting for everyone, which I wasn't.

Not sure how you come up with the "6 of us die in a row if a bomb gets revealed" thing either. Unless mafia got a lucky guess and rewired a bomb already, it would only be 3, and if they did 5 not 6. This is starting to sound like fearmongering because at this point in the game it is extremely unlikely that a bomb has been rewired.

Day three. Sucking with an iPhone and misreading on the go. If we reveal a bomb (and don't shoot it,) it could be rewired overnight + nightkill, shot the next night for +2 then nightkill. 5, yeah, yeah. Again, all assuming that we get extremely unlucky and pinpoint a bomb, and the bomb doesn't false claim.

I asked for input before on this, not laying it down as my end-all philosophy to the game. My intention wasn't to fearmonger, but more to keep our risk down for revealing our specials. So far it's working out pretty well.

Considering that the option of simply having Teemo (now McCloud) shoot limits us, then we can just leave the game somewhat in the hands of individual players. If someone thinks they're being found scummy and they have a gun, they have a lovely daykill sitting in their hands, as has been shown, ready to prove themselves by shooting who we want shot without weeding out a special townie.

We don't necessarily have to pick out our shooters. Ideally, individuals will pick up their guns for us. Unfortunately, if no one wants to step forth and we need someone scummy shot, then obviously our only choice will be to delegate a shooter.

Fortunately, it seems people are excessively willing to shoot!!... Unfortunately, they aren't the ones we're finding too scummy.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

McCloud, why the hell are you shooting Teemo? First of all, he isn't scummy, second of all he is - statistically - the least likely player to be scum and third of all there are much better shots. Do you even understand the game mechanics of BIM?

You basically just killed a clear aka a player who had like a 1/10th or so chance to be mafia and at the same time made the decision for the cops a lot easier. This is a major blow and just downright awful play.

Pick someone else to choose which one gets shot.

Go ahead then.

I must've misunderstood.

When you said "pick somebody else to choose which one gets shot" I thought you wanted me to choose somebody else to decide whom of my shoot pool I'm going to shoot. So, when I said "go ahead" I wanted you to tell me who - out of these like 5 ppl - I'm going to daykill.

 

[ligolski]

I'm off to work, I'll post my reactions to somethings this evening...but wtf McCloud....wtf...

 

[Ronike]

I had a post full of swears and anger that was lost because my phone died, so I'll sum it up with WTF mccloud, why didn't you read the thread before you daykilled. An no you didn't read it otherwise you would have noticed omniriddle DIED already and as such your noting him as town is idiotic, just like you.

On that note, no one kill him tomorrow cause he's still 90% clear unfortunately.

 

[Overswarm]

I'm relishing the fact taht we have page after page of game theory and multiple philosophies on how the game should be played, all culminating with McCloud coming in and saying "sup guys?!" with guns blazing and making, statistically, the worst town play possible.

Even if he hits the Godfather, we just get another godfather. :\

 

[Nicholas1024]

@Mccloud
Seriously? On a whim without any real case, you go ahead and shoot one of the best players in this game who's already 90% clear? Congratulations, you might have just made the "Worst town-play EVER" list.

 

[Overswarm]

I wish there was a "countershot" role that allowed a guy to shoot someone after they shot. I'd use it right now.

 

[mentosman8]

Yeah, McCloud, that was an absolutely terrible move>_> He may have lurked some on D2, but he was still mostly clear and really the worst shot that could have been taken, especially without asking town's opinion first. This is the exact kind of thing that lost us the original BIM, and I was really hoping it wouldn't pop up this time.

 

[McCloud]

I'm relishing the fact taht we have page after page of game theory and multiple philosophies on how the game should be played, all culminating with McCloud coming in and saying "sup guys?!" with guns blazing and making, statistically, the worst town play possible.

Even if he hits the Godfather, we just get another godfather. :\

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYsytJvYJzw&feature=related

:34

"Man, **** all that."

slightly less relevant, but "This ***** Ice-T old as F***!" "He's the forefather of my nuts."

Anyway, I'm well aware that it's a statistically bad shot, that we were discussing other options, and etc etc. My thoughts on the matter are that mafia have to play the math to win just as much as we do, and putting the first shot as godfather is something that's worth doing just so that the likelihood (with a well reasoned town) of being shot is much less. Tom's smart enough to know those odds, and smart enough to count on a strong discussion from town preventing him from being shot. Take a look at how the game started. Everyone immediately went "nobody shoot lets break down the stats and theorize." He was safe.

And well, if Tom ISNT the godfather, then tough luck for us I guess. I also just wanted to shoot him. ;D

 

[Overswarm]

Anyway, I'm well aware that it's a statistically bad shot, that we were discussing other options, and etc etc. My thoughts on the matter are that mafia have to play the math to win just as much as we do, and putting the first shot as godfather is something that's worth doing just so that the likelihood (with a well reasoned town) of being shot is much less. Tom's smart enough to know those odds, and smart enough to count on a strong discussion from town preventing him from being shot. Take a look at how the game started. Everyone immediately went "nobody shoot lets break down the stats and theorize." He was safe.

THEN HE WOULD HAVE BEEN SHOT LATER IN THE GAME AFTER WE HAD KILLED OTHER MAFIA, ASSUMING HE HADN'T BEEN KILLED FOR US BY A BOMB EXPLOSION


You're worthless.

 

[McCloud]

*trollface*

Problem?

 

[Overswarm]

*trollface*

Problem?

Yeah, you're a liability.

 

[McCloud]

Well, I have a 24 hour cooldown.

 

[Nicholas1024]

Hey, do you guys think Mccloud could be the godfather, or is he just dumb? I'm undecided here.

 

[McCloud]

The chain reaction starts.

 

[McCloud]

ebwodp: that's sposed to be in all caps for maximum effectiveness:

THE CHAIN REACTION STARTS.

Anyway, I don't want this shot to derail town's logic. I fully support all the theorizing. Do as I say, not as I do XD

 

[Overswarm]

I'd be fine with someone shooting McCloud immediately on D2. WTF not, right? JUST SHOOT AWAY MCCLOUD.

 

[Rockin]

Okay look, first of all

we havn't even seen Teemo's flip yet, so I'm unsure why everyone is *****ing so quickly.

Second, Teemo dead is not too big of a lost. The small good side is that we don't have to worry about him (and hopefully no one else) coasting the Day(s). I'm actually glad that he was shot cause what he done recently felt scummy and anti-town.

So before you all gack your guns ready for Mccloud, I think we should logically figure out what to do for the next day. We gotten a bit more of information today, so let's see if we can use that for the next day.

 

[Overswarm]

we havn't even seen Teemo's flip yet, so I'm unsure why everyone is *****ing so quickly.

Because it doesn't freaking matter. The only way Teemo could have shot is if he was godfather, and if McCloud was a cop and investigated him he would have seen "town" result. There's nothing there. We get literally no information that is worthwhile; even if he was the GF, the new GF comes up and will be harder to find!

 

[Nicholas1024]

If Mccloud was a cop? Cops can't shoot.

 

[Rockin]

Because it doesn't freaking matter. The only way Teemo could have shot is if he was godfather, and if McCloud was a cop and investigated him he would have seen "town" result. There's nothing there. We get literally no information that is worthwhile; even if he was the GF, the new GF comes up and will be harder to find!

If Teemo is the godfather, this would at least clear McCloud. Yeah, some may not want to kill the godfather early, but if it happens, it happens. When that happens, we treat the other role like the new godfather: clear till proven otherwise

Also, I think he'll 'just be as hard' to find. Not harder.

Away, people should just deal with it. What happened, happen.It's not to say I don't care about it (I'm upset Teemo dieing, but he brought onto himself for coasting), it's just there's nothing to do about it.

 

[Overswarm]

I want to shoot Rockin soooooooooooooo baaaaaaaaaaaaad

 

[ligolski]

ok so I'm home from work, but I don't feel like digging for quotes, but I'll start the Euax chat, since the logic was partially mine to begin with

so I stated:

One thing to also consider is that by having each person only shoot once is that we will start to give limiting down for the mafia who our cops and bombs are. It's an interesting dilemma in my opinion. For now the numbers are with us to make this ok and I really like the logic behind it, there are just some side-affects so to speak.

and then Eaux carried my logic further to:

The less shooters we have later in the game, the easier it becomes for a GF to gimp us with a bomb. I almost want to take your logic a step further and say that unless we have considerable doubt that Teemo is town, if we have a set person we want to shoot, he should do the shooting. There's only ~a 9% chance that he's the GF, but he's the only person of us 15 who is alive that has confirmed his shooting ability. In the situation that he is, the long, stacking, shared daykill cooldown will help us out a ton, in the situation that he isn't, we aren't gimping the other 9 good guns.

Not much of a slap on the wrist for making the blunder of killing a townie (who, in his defense, wasn't being too helpful,) but give me your thoughts on this.

An interesting extrapolation of my logic which does make sense, however I feel like TDA:

Definitely in favor of choosing/guiding who shoots, at least early on. Having different people shoot each time seems beneficial atm. While being able to shoot obviously isn't a total clear, it's about 90% with the current numbers, give or take. That's really, really helpful. I'm curious to see what eaux has defending his opinion.

hits my reaction perfectly here. For now I think its safe to go with choosing whoever to shoot, however I do have doubt in its long term viability. It can eventually put massive pressure on bombs and cops who really don't want to be revealed. This leaves them open to all sorts of harm from the mafia towards end game and the town as a whole if its a bomb becomes rewired. As it is with the loss of town members regularly as we play the mafia will get better odds (unless we start weeding them out hopefully! but with hip shooters like McCloud, assuming teemo is town here, we could be in deep ****), but we could inadvertently make it that much easier for them to figure out who is who

The fact is, your idea of reducing the chance of gf shooting a bomb by having a single shooter simply reduces our clears. Hence why it is pro-scum.

I hardly call it pro scum, either way could be made to look pro scum depending on the different logic standpoint you take, like you said yourself ronike different people have different forms of logic, which doesn't necessarily make them wrong either

Omnididdle is town as far as I'm concerned. This post keeps up a trend of vested interest in town play. In this game, it's far too easy to sit back and not deal with statistics and game theory.

Quote:
xmfd

absolutely laughable and terrible? oooh no, you're on to me. lol.
I don't like Teemo, and I still don't. I would not mind shooting him at all. His play has been primarily Tom, not EE, and Tom is unusually snarky and defensive in this situation. Granted, he made the silly move of shooting day one, but whatever.

Thedoc I didn't really find scummy, I just picked a name at random to see how he would react. His concern over me shooting him had an air of townsidedness to it.

Anyway, at this point I'm too lazy to continue the post for now. Will be updating in several parts.

But *glee* I can never resist using powers.

daykill: Teemo

McCloud you are worse than freaking Camo-man for those who remember him...at least he read...

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

McCloud has officially shot Teemo. The game is now in twilight. Night phase will begin @ 4:40 AM EST on July 15th.

 

[M.K]

I'm not going to sit here and condemn McCloud because that's been done enough, but clearly there was more talk about "who shoots who" and the "process" of what do to when we FIND scum, but nonetheless very little scum hunting. I'll admit that I had suspicions on Teemo, but Mccloud, you should have given him time to talk. Tom is clearly active on these boards (EE somewhere too) and probably would have something of interest to say....
The way things were going though, the day would have gone on FOREVER. Which, in itself, is fine, but people need to realize not to get so pissy when somebody eventually shoots because, yeah, it's going to happen. It's just like a lynch, if you're not on the lynch wagon for that day, you probably are mad at the person that hammered, but you move on and continue with the flips we get.

 

[mentosman8]

Really wish I could shoot Rockin and Meta-Kirby. @Rockin: It doesn't matter if Tom is town or GF, the shot was an absolutely terrible move. Shoot someone who's 90% clear, without giving the rest of town any chance to put in input in your first post in a while. All the while never stating a very clear case on him, and saying you'll "be updating in several parts," which should have been done before any thought of making a kill.

And @Meta: It was barely 4 days since D2 started! How can you say it's not ridiculous to kill that quick? Especially when you not only shoot someone who the majority of town is against shooting, and do so with almost no substance at all. Fact of the matter is the day wasn't going on forever, it had barely started. This wasn't like a lynch in a regular game, this was like a dayvig coming in and shooting someone who nobody even had a vote on in a regular game.

What I'm trying to say is, regardless of the flip, this was an absolutely terrible shot, and those defending it are doing so in a way that really makes me question their alignment, because quite frankly they're straight up wrong with what they're saying. Especially Rockin who knows from BIM 1 just how much shots like this gimp town.

 

[thedocsalive]

Nothing exciting to add. Shooting Teemo was a bad play, and the entire benefit of having different people shoot (that we get a bunch of people as semi/mostly clear) is taken away if we shoot them on a whim. Shooting Teemo today in and of itself is almost indefensible, and doing it so quickly is definitely really bad play.

 

[Tom]

Now that you have shot, you will have nothing to prove. You will sit here and think, "I wish I had been right, but I wasn't. Oh well." The game will become uninteresting and you will feel no desire to contribute (not that you ever contributed anyways). While you sit here watching the game progress, various players will sit here and blabber on about the possibility of you shooting the way you did because you are the Godfather and you are trying to play one over on them. You won't respond to their accusations, because there is literally absolutely nothing you can do to resolve them - they are either scum and are having the time of their life or they are just too dumb to realize this, and will continue to dog you about it until one of the stupid ones actually shoots you. Now that they have shot, they will have nothing to prove. They will sit here and think, "I wish I had been right, but I wasn't. Oh well." The game will become uninteresting and they will feel no desire to contribute...

If my shot was something to look down upon, yours is incredibly worse as I was basically cleared.

 

[Tom]

"Tom is unusually snarky and defensive in this situation" - I know neither what you are comparing my play to (we have never played more than one Day of a forum mafia game together, and Epic Mafia does not translate into Forum Mafia) nor what you consider snarky and defensive in this game as I barely posted anything Day 2.

protip - i'm very snarky all the time.

 

[Tom]

and ill consider this my last post in this game - rockin u r dumb as hell