Apex Legends Mafia: Boosted GAME OVER Who won?

[fontisian]

Only half the time. The other half of the time you are being ambiguous. You are hedging your bets.

I said "should we shoot bessie?" you said:



I find it very likely that you and Bessie are aligned, but shooting Bessie first would be idiotic.

Yeah, I don't really believe you claiming to think Bessie and I are likely aligned. You know exactly how capable I am of distancing with my partners, and there's none of that here, it's just me being straight and expressing thoughts as I have them. I think from the insight town!you had into scum!me last game, you'd be aware enough to recognize that here. I mean, even Laser knew I was town /as I was tunneling him/.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

OK, here's the plan.

@#HBC | Red Ryu Does the gun expire Today or can you shoot it later (assuming you're alive?)

We don't shoot or yeet Bessie Today. Instead, we have Bessie target Ryker or Eido (randomized between them). I target Bessie. Boom flips a coin and randomizes his redirect between Bessie and me, interfering with scum nking or roleblocking (assuming they have a roleblock, they probably then shoot me and try to roleblock Bessie.) Either the kill is blocked or we get confirmation on Ryker/Eido from Bessie. If Bessie or I are roleblocked, then we can believe that Wam may have been roleblocked. We go into the D3 with a gun, since Ryu cannot die anyway.

This is what you wanted advice on?

If Boom flips the target on Bessie you get no confirmation. If scum actually has a RB, then all they have to do is RB Boom and shoot Bessie and then you get a completely useless investigation result since Bessie hasn't released the team name. All of that is assuming that none of the involved players in this NA triangle are town and aren't gonna **** with it.

Much like Wam, what are you gonna do if you get conflicting claims? Like Bessie claims I'm scum, we lynch either one of the mason pair or Bessie, but you're dealing with S!Boom Bus Driver who swapped the investigation target with a scumbag. You have to declare that you're comfortable taking the risk playing that out as if more scum ****ery doesn't exist in the set-up.

Then your pay-out is to confirm the role that confirms itself if Eido or I ever flip. For the purposes of confirming Bessie, any result works and is less abusable (though Bus Driver Boom still ****S you by switching Bessie with a target that doesn't investigate).



Mass claim has given us some valuable information. It let us know that the lack of Night Kill DOESN'T actually clear anyone and it also lets us know that we have an additional gun. I'm gonna go through it and tell you what I glean from set-up analysis, but I think we're gonna have to sort through the various bullet proofs and protectives manually rather than role jiggery with all scum players still alive.

 

[Wam]

See I can see the logic from bessie for a malak target.

With your plan font we get clears all ways. So that says we need to shoot/lynch outside of bessie, font, wam, bic malak.

I would be in favour of waiting till d3 to use the shot.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

bamf
I exist. Nice to see you all.

The fudge is going on, in your own words, all of you, please.

Thanks for playing.

D1 was boring as sin and only three targets really mattered. I claimed Mason, Mala inno child. Laserguy was consensus lynch and I decided to make it more interesting in the last 2 hours, so go read the EoD.

D2 is mass claim. Almost entirely mass claim thus far. We have a day kill in Ruy's hands atm courtesy of Xivii's role.

 

[fontisian]

This is what you wanted advice on?

If Boom flips the target on Bessie you get no confirmation. If scum actually has a RB, then all they have to do is RB Boom and shoot Bessie and then you get a completely useless investigation result since Bessie hasn't released the team name. All of that is assuming that none of the involved players in this NA triangle are town and aren't gonna **** with it.

Much like Wam, what are you gonna do if you get conflicting claims? Like Bessie claims I'm scum, we lynch either one of the mason pair or Bessie, but you're dealing with S!Boom Bus Driver who swapped the investigation target with a scumbag. You have to declare that you're comfortable taking the risk playing that out as if more scum ****ery doesn't exist in the set-up.

Then your pay-out is to confirm the role that confirms itself if Eido or I ever flip. For the purposes of confirming Bessie, any result works and is less abusable (though Bus Driver Boom still ****S you by switching Bessie with a target that doesn't investigate).



Mass claim has given us some valuable information. It let us know that the lack of Night Kill DOESN'T actually clear anyone and it also lets us know that we have an additional gun. I'm gonna go through it and tell you what I glean from set-up analysis, but I think we're gonna have to sort through the various bullet proofs and protectives manually rather than role jiggery with all scum players still alive.

... You're right, I'm an idiot. I forgot that the redirect on Bessie would interfere with me. Let me think for a bit.

I'd like to point out that if Boom and Bessie are both town, I see a roleblock on Boom and kill on Bessie as an absolute win for us, when we were going to shoot or yeet Bessie anyway.

I'm pretty sure the claims and the lack of night kill clear Vic, since we know Wam didn't make the save, and we know Ryu wasn't shot (he didn't lose his totem). I'm not sure if Frozen is notified if he's shot, but I also think he would have been an unlikely nk target Yesterday anyway.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

You think it is realistic that scum have an item steal power when there is exactly one item in the whole game?

Your role makes zero sense if Bessie is scum. You should be totally confident that she is town but you are trying to keep enough doubt that Red will just go gung-ho and shoot her still. Or she is your scummate but you are worried Red will shoot her regardless of our advice and you are trying to distance. Either way this attitude is unnatural.

I mean, technically there's two "items" if you count Ruy's claimed totem, but it is kinda grasping.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

You think it is realistic that scum have an item steal power when there is exactly one item in the whole game?

Your role makes zero sense if Bessie is scum. You should be totally confident that she is town but you are trying to keep enough doubt that Red will just go gung-ho and shoot her still. Or she is your scummate but you are worried Red will shoot her regardless of our advice and you are trying to distance. Either way this attitude is unnatural.

****ing posted early,

On the second part, that's where my head is. I don't think Font's claimed role EVER exists without Bessie and Laserguy's roles. I think Bessie and Vic come out of this the best on mass claim. I just don't think Vic comes up with that role on his own unless he's seen it somewhere else before. It's really cool.

 

[fontisian]

We could do a different randomization. Say 50% Boom targets me, 50% he saves the shot. If Bessie is roleblocked, well, that still means scum aren't roleblocking Wam and can't shoot Vic or Mala. If Bessie gets shot, well we were going to shoot her anyway. And if Boom gets rolebocked and I die, well, I'm not confirmed anyway and we still have Bessie giving her claim the next Day. And if any of them are scum and merely "roleblocked" (i.e. they choose not to take an action) then the real roleblock still can't be used on anyone else, without giving the fake "roleblock" away.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Checking: Who pushed for mass claim?

Me. The entire game.

 

[fontisian]

****ing posted early,

On the second part, that's where my head is. I don't think Font's claimed role EVER exists without Bessie and Laserguy's roles. I think Bessie and Vic come out of this the best on mass claim. I just don't think Vic comes up with that role on his own unless he's seen it somewhere else before. It's really cool.

Yeah, uh, I don't think my role clears Bessie, and I'm the one who knows my role is confirmed. I think my role could be balanced by Laser's role and scum have a rolecop.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

We wait on Bessie. I target her tonight (my role allows me to get a copy of investigative results on the person I target). Bessie flips a coin and randomizes her target between Eido and Ryker, to confirm the masons. Boom randomizes his target between me and Bessie for his 1-time redirector ability. So, if Bessie or I die, we know Boom is scum, because scum wouldn't risk shooting themselves with the redirector on me/Bessie. If Bessie or I get roleblocked, we get to be very suspicious of Boom, though it's not confirmed. And if the roleblocked is used on us, then it's not being used on Wam, who will be jailing Vic. Vic staying alive means Mala stays alive. To interfere with that chain, scum would have to roleblock Wam and kill Vic, which means Bessie and I would be free to get our actions off (and I would be able to either confirm Bessie as scum or as the parity cop (meaning she's likely town) and if she is town, we get an alignment check on Ryker/Eido. This course of action likely wins more games on average, because it accounts for the possibility that Bessie is town.

What do you do if scum just RBs Bessie? That means you get no confirmation, you just get the claim from one of your biggest scumspects?

 

[fontisian]

Regardless of all this, I think Frozen's claim stands out as the weirdest, with the overlap with Red's. Mala's clear, Vic's clear, we can most likely clear Eido/Ryker. I don't want to kill Xivii, because he's town behaviorally. We're not killing Wam when he's need to keep Vic and Mala alive. If we don't kill Bessie, then we also need Boom alive to make the plan work. Which just leaves Frozen, Maven, Trisscar and Red Ryu. Can't reasonably ask Red to shoot himself (lol) and he apparently wouldn't die anyway, plus he can semi-clear himself by shooting scum. I'd prefer a Frozen kill over a Maven or Trisscar one. Yeah.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Yeah, uh, I don't think my role clears Bessie, and I'm the one who knows my role is confirmed. I think my role could be balanced by Laser's role and scum have a rolecop.

I mean without the investigative. There's no way there aren't at least two. However, if you think Bessie is a rolecop, then you can't think scum spent that investigation on the IC. In that world, it has to be like,.... scum watcher or something.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Regardless of all this, I think Frozen's claim stands out as the weirdest, with the overlap with Red's. Mala's clear, Vic's clear, we can most likely clear Eido/Ryker. I don't want to kill Xivii, because he's town behaviorally. We're not killing Wam when he's need to keep Vic and Mala alive. If we don't kill Bessie, then we also need Boom alive to make the plan work. Which just leaves Frozen, Maven, Trisscar and Red Ryu. Can't reasonably ask Red to shoot himself (lol) and he apparently wouldn't die anyway, plus he can semi-clear himself by shooting scum. I'd prefer a Frozen kill over a Maven or Trisscar one. Yeah.

Does Frozen's claim work as scum for you? Deciding if you want to lynch or shoot him is a very important position to take.

 

[fontisian]

What do you do if scum just RBs Bessie? That means you get no confirmation, you just get the claim from one of your biggest scumspects?

Still a win. If scum roleblock Bessie because we didn't kill her, then they cannot roleblock Wam, which means they cannot shoot Vic. This means that they have to kill either in the masons (which confirms the other mason), me (I'm not confirmed so this is fine) or some other non-confirmed person (maybe Xivii out of fear he's lying about more guns, maybe Wam to get rid of the anti-kill chain). This is something we can literally do every Night until one of Wam/Bessie die.

We also have a decent chance of killing the roleblocker Today, between the gun and yeet, and we know if Bessie is scum, she probably isn't the roleblocker (because of her claim to have targeted Mala. If she actually targetted Wam and didn't carry the kill against Mala last Night, why claim the parity cop check on Mala).

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

... You're right, I'm an idiot. I forgot that the redirect on Bessie would interfere with me. Let me think for a bit.

I'd like to point out that if Boom and Bessie are both town, I see a roleblock on Boom and kill on Bessie as an absolute win for us, when we were going to shoot or yeet Bessie anyway.

I'm pretty sure the claims and the lack of night kill clear Vic, since we know Wam didn't make the save, and we know Ryu wasn't shot (he didn't lose his totem). I'm not sure if Frozen is notified if he's shot, but I also think he would have been an unlikely nk target Yesterday anyway.

I agree with the bolded. I'm only showing perceived holes in the plan.

Man, when Wam posts, I want to launch him into low earth orbit.

 

[fontisian]

Does Frozen's claim work as scum for you? Deciding if you want to lynch or shoot him is a very important position to take.

His role is literally just a commuter thing, right? It's not confirmable for us, because it only triggers if he gets shot at Night, so he could be lying. Also, even if he isn't lying, if Boom's role is town, it could be a role made to protect him from the redirect or whatever Boom's third ability is.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Let me do some phase math on leaving a hypothetical S!Wam alive.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

His role is literally just a commuter thing, right? It's not confirmable for us, because it only triggers if he gets shot at Night, so he could be lying. Also, even if he isn't lying, if Boom's role is town, it could be a role made to protect him from the redirect or whatever Boom's third ability is.

OH YEAH! He had that thing where he was talking about Day and Night Kills being different. True, true, true.

 

[fontisian]

The argument against using the gun Today is that, if we wait for Tomorrow, we will almost certainly have more info and we may have a dichotomy. The argument for using it Today is that 1. Ryu could be scum, in which case we want the gun out of his hands asap 2. We have a higher chance of killing the roleblocker if we use both the gun and the yeet Today. 3. Scum could have an ability that allows them to interfere with the gun.

As a side note, there's always a chance Wam is lying and there is no roleblocker (though I find this unlikely) or the roleblocker is odd-night only, so we may be able to get actions off any way.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

I'm sure we have some sort of role interference, dunno if it's RBer.

Could be bus driver, could easily (and likely) be strongman. Could be multiple!

I BET one of these bulletproof variants are indy, but that's a problem for another day.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

See, I have this issue where I want to Vote Wam and shoot Bessie and move on with my life, but role shenanigans. After that point, I'm just PoE lynching Maven or UP or FF (in that order).

 

[fontisian]

I'm sure we have some sort of role interference, dunno if it's RBer.

Could be bus driver, could easily (and likely) be strongman. Could be multiple!

I BET one of these bulletproof variants are indy, but that's a problem for another day.

If Wam is town, it's a roleblocker or redirecter. And if a roleblocker flips, I think that means Wam is very likely town, because he wouldn't have claimed he might have been roleblocked when scum roleblocked someone else (and the kill just seems designed to make him look bad). It cannot be a bus driver (if Wam is town) because other actions hit Mala.

Theoretically, scum!Wam could be a jailer who had his team redirect him, but, uh, why bother with that? Or he could have fakeclaimed his entire role, but then why sabotage his claim to having blocked the kill?

 

[Chaco]

As a reminder, Xivii is V/LA. Vote count incoming shortly.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

If Wam is town, it's a roleblocker or redirecter. And if a roleblocker flips, I think that means Wam is very likely town, because he wouldn't have claimed he might have been roleblocked when scum roleblocked someone else (and the kill just seems designed to make him look bad). It cannot be a bus driver (if Wam is town) because other actions hit Mala.

Theoretically, scum!Wam could be a jailer who had his team redirect him, but, uh, why bother with that? Or he could have fakeclaimed his entire role, but then why sabotage his claim to having blocked the kill?

I would say definitely do not treat our protections as infallible regardless. I would be astounded to find a game with this many kills didn't have a one-shot strongman. Unless scum team is like, all of our passive protections (Ryu, FF, Maven), then this set-up is certainly atypical.

Analyzing the set-up is going to lead me chasing all sorts of rabbit holes:

Can UP be scum? DVoter is a pretty damn weak role for a scum team in a game like this.
Is Xivii scum? Scum could certainly leverage some extra firepower in this game.
Is Font scum? That role does very little and could easily be cover that allows the player to target key town targets without arousing suspicion.

Basically any role that COULD have additional firepower looks like it could be a scum role right now and nothing in the set-up is conclusive. I like Vic's claim. I begrudgingly can accept that keeping Wam around has utility and a T!Wam is a very good roleblock target even if his #1843 makes me want to vomit.

I'm pretty okay with being able to lock the game into claims at this point, but I do not have a clear focus going forward, so it's going to take me giving D1 a much harder look than I am willing to provide right now to gain some direction on the remaining slots.

BoomFrog Give me a more detailed walk through your process at EoD1. Specifically, what got you off of Bessie and back to Laserguy? How have the mass claim and flip enhanced that perspective?

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

*this many kill protections

 

[Xivii]

You think it is realistic that scum have an item steal power when there is exactly one item in the whole game?

Your role makes zero sense if Bessie is scum. You should be totally confident that she is town but you are trying to keep enough doubt that Red will just go gung-ho and shoot her still. Or she is your scummate but you are worried Red will shoot her regardless of our advice and you are trying to distance. Either way this attitude is unnatural.

There are two items that we are aware of.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Is it known who makes the shot? Is it thread announced when the trigger is pulled and who pulled it?

 

[Xivii]

Btw Xivii this bit is outdated and wrong:

I don't believe so. Mala predicted Wam's role as well. So he's likely fibbing about not being informed.

 

[Trisscar]

Should I be wondering what the heck UP did to rouse suspicion with Fonti?

 

[Trisscar]

Fonti I'mma say that while your plans are cool and intricate, if they have enough similar confusion points, you may wanna KISS principle this thing. If you can actually completely separate them regardless of what scum could have or whether the individuals involved do as they say, then cool, but that seems unlikely from this (having joined game like an hour or so ago) position.

 

[Trisscar]

Gun should be used today, to prevent shenanigans.

 

[fontisian]

Fonti I'mma say that while your plans are cool and intricate, if they have enough similar confusion points, you may wanna KISS principle this thing. If you can actually completely separate them regardless of what scum could have or whether the individuals involved do as they say, then cool, but that seems unlikely from this (having joined game like an hour or so ago) position.

Mmm. I think it's fairly simple, and I think there are benefits no matter how scum play it.

 

[Trisscar]

Masons should be dealt with eventually, unless someone manages to prove them and is confirmed themselves, mechnically in at least two or three ways.

 

[Trisscar]

Mate you spent like three posts outlining or changing how it'd function, I think it's a bit complex. XD

 

[Xivii]

Mirage, Holographic Trickster, Double Voter, Me (obv), Note: Exists

Also looking at this chart I'm wondering why they said Shadow voter instead. The heck.

What's the rest? UtopianPoyzin also claimed you had a visiting role ability. Also, how come you aren't being forthcome with your role?

That appears to be four, to be nitpicky.

Thanks, I added BoomFrog afterward when figuring out where to place him.

Xivii
*Thief, btw

Xivii I think the team's probably something like Bessie/Boom/Frozen (maybe UP instead of Frozen) and we can force Boom and Bessie into an awkward position where they have to kill me (thus making Boom look terrible).

I can see this team, but I really don't see a reason why bessie should live past today. I think this is trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.

I don't think I understand what you mean here. Do you think Bessie is scum but really receives parity cop results?

I'm surprised that you think otherwise. The existence of the role regardless of bessie's alignment implies that there is more than two factions in the game.

fontisian and BoomFrog I am seeing what BoomFrog is saying. I think this post if fairly suspicious:

Ah, Bessie.

Mmm. We could just kill her?

Killing bessie has always been the plan. Again, it's like you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist. Additionally, I don't get at all why you were just willing to accept the idea of a thief. There's no evidence for it at all. And this is one of those instances where you're supposed to say slow down Xivii.

 

[fontisian]

Mate you spent like three posts outlining or changing how it'd function, I think it's a bit complex. XD

No, it's not.

Wam targets Vic. I target Bessie. Bessie 50/50s the target between Ryker and Eido. Boom 50/50s the target between me and not using his ability. Easy to understand.

The rest is just running through the possible ways it plays out and what certain results mean.

 

[Trisscar]

What's the rest? UtopianPoyzin also claimed you had a visiting role ability. Also, how come you aren't being forthcome with your role?

Why is UP marked down as extra kill power?

 

[Trisscar]

Sidenote: RE the IbE pic, ha

 

[fontisian]

What's the rest? UtopianPoyzin also claimed you had a visiting role ability. Also, how come you aren't being forthcome with your role?

Thanks, I added BoomFrog afterward when figuring out where to place him.


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I can see this team, but I really don't see a reason why bessie should live past today. I think this is trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist.


I'm surprised that you think otherwise. The existence of the role regardless of bessie's alignment implies that there is more than two factions in the game.

fontisian and BoomFrog I am seeing what BoomFrog is saying. I think this post if fairly suspicious:

Killing bessie has always been the plan. Again, it's like you're trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist. Additionally, I don't get at all why you were just willing to accept the idea of a thief. There's no evidence for it at all. And this is one of those instances where you're supposed to say slow down Xivii.

The world I'm trying to win in is the "what if Bessie is town" world. Is it unlikely? Absolutely. But it doesn't really cost us anything to pursue it, if we're going to end up killing Frozen anyway.

Re the Thief thing 1. it was 3am, and I was following the election, not this. 2. I thought your chart was confirming that Bessie claimed the Thief character, and her role didn't make sense with that, so some sort of item theft thing wasn't out of the question. I now know that's not the case.