All newcomers were leaked along Little Mac, Pac Man and the Miis

[Sobreviviente]

I was expecting the ancient minister actually.

 

[Jumpman84]

As someone who lurked Brawl's GameFAQs boards back during the day, R.O.B. was a character discussed, partly thanks to being in Mario Kart DS. I don't know if anyone would have expected him had he not been in that game, though there are references to him in both F-Zero and Star Fox.

 

[SmashChu]

I don't think you saw what I was saying, because you just said again "someone had to get them right".

That's the root problem I was trying to point out. There's no reason at all that someone had to get them right, and my previous post outlined why that is.

What your were pointing out was I didn't use the Infinite Monkey Theorem correctly. Everything else is a failure to communicate on your part.

And yes, someone didn't have to get them right, but someone did. What I'm saying is people jump to the conclusion that the person HAD to know something. They didn't have to know anything. That's my point. So it's more your not getting what I'm saying.

 

[Jumpman84]

What your were pointing out was I didn't use the Infinite Monkey Theorem correctly. Everything else is a failure to communicate on your part.

And yes, someone didn't have to get them right, but someone did. What I'm saying is people jump to the conclusion that the person HAD to know something. They didn't have to know anything. That's my point. So it's more your not getting what I'm saying.

Yet you have no proof that this person was guessing. In fact, all the evidence points to it NOT being a random guess. This includes the person saying that he had a source, him posting it on NeoGAF (which is apparently a website of prestige), WFT being a character no one expected (which Sakurai confirmed), and that he got two other characters correct, also impressive considering that Sakurai had struck him down previously and that Capcom had effectively ended the Mega Man franchise .

The fact that you keep grasping at straws in an effort to disprove this as a leak is sad and a little pathetic. All anyone is saying is that the leak could be true. Your ignorance to this possibility is astounding. The person with the failure to communicate is YOU.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Im only mentioning this because sonic got confirmed this way

But we may get a character tomorrow because of the direct. I mean most of us thought on the october first direct we were not getting a character but then sonic jumps out

 

[soviet prince]

Regardless of how awful the leak is (and it surely is), there is something to it. No one, and I mean no one could have guessed that the trainer from Wii Fit would ever be playable, not even in the most terrifying fevered dreams of a madman. Only Sakurai could fathom it, because at the very least, every fake leak has mostly taken into account what people want, no matter how bizarre their roster choices are. Wii Fit Trainer is the only potential Nintendo character that not a single person ever wanted to be in Smash. Yet here she is. This is why I think there's some validity to the rumor.

However, the whole absence of Little Mac, Pacman, and Mii at E3 throws a wrench into it all. How could he know three additional characters that still haven't been revealed, unless they really did plan on revealing all 6 initially. Some people have suggested that those 3 are the last remaining newcomers period, making the total number of newcomers 6. This is quite easily the worst possible option, seeing how half of those characters are widely unwanted. The fact that we still haven't seen a newcomer revealed about 4 and a half months since E3 has me nervous. I guess we'll see.

yeah that's what i am worried about as well, with only 6 new characters and the vets having mostly the same moves it fell more like a expansion then a true sequel

 

[ChickenWing13]

Im sure there is a reason behind it. Perhaps he wants to reveal the Veterans first before the newcomers.

 

[Kamiko]

SmashChu, the world needs more people who think like you. There just aren't enough.

 

[salaboB]

SmashChu, the world needs more people who think like you. There just aren't enough.

I don't think the world needs more people who use absolute language and refuse to change their views, even in the face of strong reasoning against them.

There are plenty of people like that already (Myself included, at times)

 

[Jumpman84]

SmashChu, the world needs more people who think like you. There just aren't enough.

The world has enough ignorant people, thank you very much.

 

[Kamiko]

He's using logic. Too many people try to force their opinions into the wrong places.

 

[Jumpman84]

He's using logic. Too many people try to force their opinions into the wrong places.

Actually, it's SmashChu constantly forcing his opinion on others. He may be using logic to support his claim, but so is everyone else in this thread. The only difference is that we support something he doesn't like, so he insults and belittles people to make himself feel superior. It's not very nice and doesn't give me any reason to believe his theory.

 

[Kamiko]

I don't recall seeing anything insulting in his recent posts in this thread, but I guess I could go look over them again.

What other people are doing though, is saying that a set of coincidenses prove that the leaker didn't make the list up. If a bunch of people try to guess the weather the next day, someone, somewhere, will predict a sunshower. If it actually happens, is that person a prophet? Maybe, but prbably not.

SmashChu is just saying not to assume something is true just because it seems more likely.

 

[TheTuninator]

that he got two other characters correct, also impressive considering that Sakurai had struck him down previously and that Capcom had effectively ended the Mega Man franchise .

Guessing Villager and Mega Man is in no way an accomplishment. I personally thought Mega Man to be a shoo-in and expected him to be announced at E3. Villager also stands as a no-brainer inclusion given New Leaf's popularity and the size and scope of the AC franchise as a whole. Sure, Sakurai ruled him out for Brawl, but when did we start taking Sakurai's words at face value? The mere fact that Villager was once considered for inclusion automatically jumps him high up the list of possible guesses.

WFT stands as the sole reason this leak is credible. Fortunately for the leaker, she's a pretty compelling reason.

 

[Jumpman84]

I don't recall seeing anything insulting in his recent posts in this thread, but I guess I could go look over them again.

What other people are doing though, is saying that a set of coincidenses prove that the leaker didn't make the list up. If a bunch of people try to guess the weather the next day, someone, somewhere, will predict a sunshower. If it actually happens, is that person a prophet? Maybe, but prbably not.

SmashChu is just saying not to assume something is true just because it seems more likely.

I get that and I understand where you're coming from. I certainly agree that there's no guarantee that we will get Pac-Man, Little Mac, and Mii, though I certainly hope we do. At the same time, however, SmashChu is assuming that the leaker is a fake and dismisses anyone who says otherwise. Assuming something is false is just as bad as assuming something is true.

He has also made comments in the past (or at least, I think he has) that were essentially saying that there was absolutely no way there would be third parties in Smash 4 before E3 proved that to be false. Then he said that there was absolutely no way Sonic would return because he was a guest character and a one time deal before that was proven false as well. This does not give great confidence in his assertions that the leak is fake, given that his logic and evidence is shaky at best.

Again, I'm not sure if this was him or not, but when I asked him if that was indeed him or if I was mistaken, he ignored the question entirely, leading me to believe it's true. You would think that having been proven wrong twice already, that he would consider the possibility that he may be wrong about the leak being fake. But nope, he states the same things over and over and ignores the people who ask him legitimate questions that poke holes in his statements.

I still do want to know if he is the person who made those previous two claims or not. If he did, then I would hope that he would admit that he was mistaken, which would change my perspective on him considerably. Until then, I'll be taking his posts with a grain of salt.

 

[SmashChu]

Yet you have no proof that this person was guessing. In fact, all the evidence points to it NOT being a random guess. This includes the person saying that he had a source, him posting it on NeoGAF (which is apparently a website of prestige), WFT being a character no one expected (which Sakurai confirmed), and that he got two other characters correct, also impressive considering that Sakurai had struck him down previously and that Capcom had effectively ended the Mega Man franchise

The fact that you keep grasping at straws in an effort to disprove this as a leak is sad and a little pathetic. All anyone is saying is that the leak could be true. Your ignorance to this possibility is astounding. The person with the failure to communicate is YOU.

It's clear you have no critical thinking skills, because there is no proof he was telling the truth either. Notice how he never had a source until after a character is shown.

I don't think the world needs more people who use absolute language and refuse to change their views, even in the face of strong reasoning against them.

There are plenty of people like that already (Myself included, at times)

Strong reasoning? No one has brought up a good argument, or even a different one at that. After I made my post, no one else changed how they think about the situation. They still said "BUT HE GOT WFT RIGHT. HE MUST KNOW SOMETHING." The post above me is an example of that. I think some of my opponents never actually read the post I made.

 

[salaboB]

Strong reasoning? No one has brought up a good argument, or even a different one at that. After I made my post, no one else changed how they think about the situation. They still said "BUT HE GOT WFT RIGHT. HE MUST KNOW SOMETHING." The post above me is an example of that. I think some of my opponents never actually read the post I made.

I have brought up a specific point: That you don't have any strong proof that he was guessing, because the likelihood of randomly coming up with WFT is so low.

Your response has been: "It had to be guessed eventually." That is a fallacious argument. See my previous explanations for why.

Note: I never said he was not guessing. I am saying that you can't say "HE DOESN'T KNOW ANYTHING BECAUSE SOMEONE HAD TO GUESS THIS RIGHT." If you would like to tone your absolute language down to, "He may be guessing" I would have much less of a problem with this, and if after that you successfully justify why WFT wasn't as unlikely as everyone thinks she was then I'll completely accept your point.

Do you intend to keep saying he HAD to have been guessing?

 

[SmashChu]

I have brought up a specific point: That you don't have any strong proof that he was guessing, because the likelihood of randomly coming up with WFT is so low.

Your response has been: "It had to be guessed eventually." That is a fallacious argument. See my previous explanations for why.

Note: I never said he was not guessing. I am saying that you can't say "HE DOESN'T KNOW ANYTHING BECAUSE SOMEONE HAD TO GUESS THIS RIGHT." If you would like to tone your absolute language down to, "He may be guessing" I would have much less of a problem with this, and if after that you successfully justify why WFT wasn't as unlikely as everyone thinks she was then I'll completely accept your point.

Do you intend to keep saying he HAD to have been guessing?

Surprise, that's the same argument that I already went though. There is a huge post on it. Go read it.

I'm not ignoring you. You just haven't brought anything new to the table.

 

[salaboB]

Surprise, that's the same argument that I already went though. There is a huge post on it. Go read it.

I'm not ignoring you. You just haven't brought anything new to the table.

I honestly do not understand how you can claim to be logical while saying there is a 100% chance this individual is guessing. (That is what "Had to be guessing" means)

I get that you're trying to show that he didn't have to have an inside source. But to prove this does not require that you must absolutely be correct.

I see no value in a conversation about possibilities where we must say it is 100% one way or the other, when there's no way to verify it. The best we can do right now is decide which is the most likely.

 

[Rosalina suporter]

I honestly do not understand how you can claim to be logical while saying there is a 100% chance this individual is guessing. (That is what "Had to be guessing" means)

I get that you're trying to show that he didn't have to have an inside source. But to prove this does not require that you must absolutely be correct.

I see no value in a conversation about possibilities where we must say it is 100% one way or the other, when there's no way to verify it. The best we can do right now is decide which is the most likely.

I think the possibility,is he had a source,How else could he get half of them right?.

 

[Morbi]

I honestly do not understand how you can claim to be logical while saying there is a 100% chance this individual is guessing. (That is what "Had to be guessing" means)

I get that you're trying to show that he didn't have to have an inside source. But to prove this does not require that you must absolutely be correct.

I see no value in a conversation about possibilities where we must say it is 100% one way or the other, when there's no way to verify it. The best we can do right now is decide which is the most likely.

Sometimes we have to dismiss logical assumptions when something becomes overtly apparent or negligible. It isn't logical to assert that the leak is valid; however, in context there is nothing wrong with the leak. Pacman, Miis, and Little Mac were all fairly expected newcomers primarily. They are all based on rational thought, the leak just further confirms the notion for some individuals. It isn't the only source they are pulling from. It just contributes to the premise. In this case, I don't believe the leak in its entirety, that leak was already proven to be fallacious. It would be erroneous to disregard the content of the leak though. It is readily apparent that the characters are obvious choices. In this case, I believe the leak simply because the results are negligible.

 

[iam8bit]

I think Miis are a shoe-in, but Little Mac and, especially, Pac-Man, not so much.

So it's easy to know if there was ever a leak: wait for the final roster.

 

[Pazzo.]

I think Miis are a shoe-in, but Little Mac and, especially, Pac-Man, not so much.

So it's easy to know if there was ever a leak: wait for the final roster.

No Little Mac in you're book?

WHY??

 

[Jumpman84]

It's clear you have no critical thinking skills, because there is no proof he was telling the truth either. Notice how he never had a source until after a character is shown.

See, this is what I was talking about. He has very clearly and blatantly called me stupid because I don't agree with him. Is it any wonder no one can believe anything he says?

Also, note how he sits there and says there is no proof for him telling the truth, but in the very next sentence makes a statement that he has no proof for. I mean, did he hack the guy's email? Does he know him in real life? How else could he make this claim that he didn't have a source until after? He can't. Yet because it supports HIS opinion, that makes it CORRECT. You see what a hypocrite SmashChu is?

All SmashChu cares about his twisting events and things that happen in order to support his view. Yet again, he chose to ignore my inquiry about his previous false statements. He pretends they never happen, because SmashChu is NEVER wrong. Instead, he'll insist that he knew Mega Man and Sonic would return all along, like his insistence that Wii Fit Trainer was an obvious choice and that people talked about her. And I'll bet that back before Brawl came out, he called the notion of Mewtwo being cut and Lucario being in ridiculous and would call those leaks fake... exactly like he's doing now.

We were specifically warned this would happen again. History would repeat itself and we were told to treat so called leaks with an open mind. SmashChu apparently isn't a good listener.

 

[TheTuninator]

I think the possibility,is he had a source,How else could he get half of them right?.

An educated guess with a healthy heaping of luck.

Inside information remains the likeliest explanation for the WFT guess, but we cannot ever rule out the possibility that he may simply have been extremely lucky. There's a lot of people guessing Smash rosters out there, and Villager and Mega Man were obvious picks.

We also must remember the corollary to your question: if he had a source, how could he get half of them wrong?

 

[uCooL]

I really do not want Miis in this game. I never use them so it be a waste of a slot for me. Also not to keen on Little Mac. Along with that I rather have Ms.Pacman than Pacman(my mom used to play ms.pacman nonstop when i was younger so im more attached to her)

no to everything you said

 

[iam8bit]

No Little Mac in you're book?

WHY??

I think he might be in, and I think he'd be a good addition. I just don't see him as a 100% sure bet.

 

[Kamiko]

See, this is what I was talking about. He has very clearly and blatantly called me stupid because I don't agree with him. Is it any wonder no one can believe anything he says?

Also, note how he sits there and says there is no proof for him telling the truth, but in the very next sentence makes a statement that he has no proof for. I mean, did he hack the guy's email? Does he know him in real life? How else could he make this claim that he didn't have a source until after? He can't. Yet because it supports HIS opinion, that makes it CORRECT. You see what a hypocrite SmashChu is?

Ok I see what you mean about the insults with that one, but I don't think he meant it quite that way. That seems to me like he's getting fed up with not being understood. Still not a good choice of words on his part.

The proof thing looks to be a similar situation. He meant that the proof was never stated to exist until after the reveal. Again, poor choice of words.

Instead, he'll insist that he knew Mega Man and Sonic would return all along, like his insistence that Wii Fit Trainer was an obvious choice and that people talked about her. And I'll bet that back before Brawl came out, he called the notion of Mewtwo being cut and Lucario being in ridiculous and would call those leaks fake... exactly like he's doing now.

Being what-if scenarios/guesses, he could say you're putting words in his mouth with these statements.

Basically we all need to be more careful with what we say and how we say things. Misunderstandings are never fun.


My own argument is that the only reason no one talked about Wii Fit Trainer is because no one WANTED Wii Fit Trainer. But when you think about it, who hasn't heard of Wii Fit? It's hard to deny its importance to Nintendo. With that in mind, every character listed is a pretty sound suggestion, be it because of importance or popularity.

I WAS going to say that the timing of the neogaf post is what gives it credit, but it seems that the thread was started only a few days before anyway, so I'm not really sure. I'm at like 30-ish% on the belief gauge.

Conclusion? It's fine to want to believe the leak, but not because of Wii Fit Trainer.

 

[SmashChu]

I honestly do not understand how you can claim to be logical while saying there is a 100% chance this individual is guessing. (That is what "Had to be guessing" means)

I get that you're trying to show that he didn't have to have an inside source. But to prove this does not require that you must absolutely be correct.

I see no value in a conversation about possibilities where we must say it is 100% one way or the other, when there's no way to verify it. The best we can do right now is decide which is the most likely.

Consider this: Do you believe, 100%, that the guy is telling the truth and that he does have inside information?

Basically, I'm not going to sugar coat it and say "Well, maybe it's this but it's also this." I'm taking a stance which is what my opposition has does as well. I made a point and argue that.

See, this is what I was talking about. He has very clearly and blatantly called me stupid because I don't agree with him. Is it any wonder no one can believe anything he says?

Also, note how he sits there and says there is no proof for him telling the truth, but in the very next sentence makes a statement that he has no proof for. I mean, did he hack the guy's email? Does he know him in real life? How else could he make this claim that he didn't have a source until after? He can't. Yet because it supports HIS opinion, that makes it CORRECT. You see what a hypocrite SmashChu is?

All SmashChu cares about his twisting events and things that happen in order to support his view. Yet again, he chose to ignore my inquiry about his previous false statements. He pretends they never happen, because SmashChu is NEVER wrong. Instead, he'll insist that he knew Mega Man and Sonic would return all along, like his insistence that Wii Fit Trainer was an obvious choice and that people talked about her. And I'll bet that back before Brawl came out, he called the notion of Mewtwo being cut and Lucario being in ridiculous and would call those leaks fake... exactly like he's doing now.


We were specifically warned this would happen again. History would repeat itself and we were told to treat so called leaks with an open mind. SmashChu apparently isn't a good listener.

"BOO HOO HOO.' The mean man on the internet made fun of me." In truth, I said you lack critical thinking skills. Some college students do too. I say this because you simply take it at face value. Guy says he had a source and had WFT on a roster. So he must be right. Further scrutiny would say "But wait a minute. He said this after his predictions were right. Why not say it before." Or "Hmm, how;d he get the information. They weren't at E3, so how did an English speaker get info from a Japanese game." When he comes on Smashboards and "OH, they didn't show the characters like I said they would, they must have moved them back," you believe it without even questioning it. Used car salesman must love you.

The post doesn't warrant a response really. it's just whining for whining sake. As for Sonic and Megaman, I claimed they wouldn't be back. I made a whole roster saying what I thought would happen and you can easily look it up. I did because people would talk like they knew everything but didn't back it up. So I put my ass on the line for better or for worse. There is no twisting of words as you so claim.


How about instead of making silly accusations, you bring up a new argument.

I'm glad to see some other people took the time to read it. I may not have changed their minds, but it's good that others at least consider what I said. And your input has been good Kamiko

 

[Jumpman84]

I say this because you simply take it at face value. Guy says he had a source and had WFT on a roster. So he must be right. Further scrutiny would say "But wait a minute. He said this after his predictions were right. Why not say it before." Or "Hmm, how;d he get the information. They weren't at E3, so how did an English speaker get info from a Japanese game." When he comes on Smashboards and "OH, they didn't show the characters like I said they would, they must have moved them back," you believe it without even questioning it. Used car salesman must love you.

Except the person was never the source of the leak in the first place. He was only stating what the person who emailed him said. He has no other knowledge other than what he was told in the email. Your statements of him claiming they pushed it back to cover his butt sound absolutely ridiculous when he has no butt to cover.

He even said that he wasn't sure why the other three weren't revealed and gave that response as a possible option. And given that Nintendo did in fact hold back on a reveal only one year before (Tropical Freeze), this is a very plausible explanation. Or possibly they were all candidates for reveals and Sakurai picked the three he thought would work out best and saved the others for further down the road. There are numerous reasons besides "he's a really good guesser who doesn't really know anything". And we'll probably never know exactly what happened.

I have never once said that he "must be right". Obviously, not all of the information was correct, as the reveals didn't happen at E3. No one is disputing that fact nor is it relevant to the current discussion at hand. The validity of the leak depends on if Pac-Man, Little Mac, and Mii are in the game. Much like the previous two rounds, there's no way to know for sure that it's fake until the game is out. The very least you could argue is that Pac-Man would be confirmed a few months before the release date since he is a third party.

As for Sonic and Megaman, I claimed they wouldn't be back. I made a whole roster saying what I thought would happen and you can easily look it up. I did because people would talk like they knew everything but didn't back it up. So I put my *** on the line for better or for worse. There is no twisting of words as you so claim.

All right, I admit that I was wrong on that one. You are indeed someone who will admit to his mistakes and I have gained respect for you now. I also think that it's admirable that you're willing to put your rep on the line like that. However, it comes off as being arrogant that you speak in absolutes when your track record is against you. Many people (such as myself) would find it very difficult to take you seriously. Nevertheless, I'll try to better understand the underlying message of your posts.

How about instead of making silly accusations, you bring up a new argument.

You first. No really, the accusations you keep making against the owner of the website are themselves silly. How about less accusations all around?

But here's a new argument to consider: are you against the characters yet to be revealed in general? Or would you not care about them being in or perhaps even want to see them in?

 

[BlitznBurst]

I know I'm pretty late to this, but to the people who cite Sonic's number of Nintendo games compared to other characters - this is a ****ty argument and you should feel bad. SEGA weren't always third-party. Obviously Sonic will have more non-Nintendo games because before 2001 Sonic was exclusively SEGA. For it to be a fair comparison you'd have to list his games post-SA2 - in which case almost all of his games have been on Nintendo consoles, with the only exceptions being Sonic 06 and the Rivals games. Not only that, but even on SEGA consoles Sonic was incredibly important to Nintendo's history, being part of the massive rivalry with Nintendo and, you know, the face of video games. Pac-Man's original game may have been immensely popular, but Pac-Man as a character is not iconic. Almost all of his games after the original have been attempts at capitalizing on the success of the original, with highly varying degrees of success.

 

[Fenrir VII]

The validity of the leak depends on if Pac-Man, Little Mac, and Mii are in the game. Much like the previous two rounds, there's no way to know for sure that it's fake until the game is out. The very least you could argue is that Pac-Man would be confirmed a few months before the release date since he is a third party.

Honestly, I'm not sure those three being included would confirm that the leak was real and not a guess...but I get what you're saying.


I'm still struggling with a couple things about this.

1. Without WFT, this leak loses all validity. if the leak had been Villager and Megaman only, with the other 3, nobody would be thinking about it. Or if a more obvious character (Isaac, Chrom, etc etc) took WFT's place, the same thing would have happened...

2. If the last three unrevealed characters weren't so completely obvious, people would have bashed this down a long time ago.. If Heihachi, Naruto, Banjo-Kazooie, Master Chief, etc etc etc, or even poor Ridley were included, even the die-hards would have to question or deny its believability, regardless of the WFT guess...

I'm not sure there's a name for it, but hinging the validity of the leak mainly on 1 character (out of 6), while the three unrevealed ones are believable shoe-in's really makes it suspicious to me.

 

[RelaxAlax]

It's not a leak. Believe it if it helps you sleep at night.

 

[I_hate_usernames]

It's not a leak. Believe it if it helps you sleep at night.

That did the exact opposite!!!!

 

[TheTuninator]

Even Pac-Man, Mii, and Little Mac being revealed will not prove that the leak was legitimate, as they're all obvious guesses. We'll be arguing over the legitimacy of this leak for a long time.

1. Without WFT, this leak loses all validity. if the leak had been Villager and Megaman only, with the other 3, nobody would be thinking about it. Or if a more obvious character (Isaac, Chrom, etc etc) took WFT's place, the same thing would have happened...

Yeah, if you believe the leak really does come down to how unguessable you find WFT to be.

 

[iam8bit]

As far as the "leaker" theory goes, there are 2 things that bug me:

- That the "leaker" posted the characters as "unlikely predictions", not as leaks
- That Little Mac, Pac-Man and Mii were at one point said by this person as being E3 reveals, which didn't happen

This would imply 2 things:

- That someone, for whatever reason, decided to post information received in an e-mail (chosen from many others, I suppose) as his own predictions, just because
- That Nintendo intended to reveal 3 more characters, and changed their minds just because

I just find all this unlikely, and IMO makes the leaker theory less likely.

 

[Undrdog]

I tend to stay out of these discussions, but this has gotten out of hand. Would it help if I said that I also predicted Wii Fit Trainer and an Animal Crossing rep before this game was even officially announced? On my part it was simply an educated guess given the fact that Wii Fit targeted one of the Wii's primary demographics and sold like hotcakes.

Here are the possibilities in order of probability:

100% guess work as mine was.
Obtained a leak of planned characters, but obviously not all.
SSB Wii U/3DS will only contain half a dozen new characters. The only one of which to appeal to the gaming community being Mega Man.

Try to keep in mind that this game WILL be Nintendo's personal invitation to the gaming community to buy a Wii U after the initial surge of PS4 and XBONE sales. There's a reason why they brought Namco in on this project.

 

[Jumpman84]

Honestly, I'm not sure those three being included would confirm that the leak was real and not a guess...but I get what you're saying.

I'm still struggling with a couple things about this.

1. Without WFT, this leak loses all validity. if the leak had been Villager and Megaman only, with the other 3, nobody would be thinking about it. Or if a more obvious character (Isaac, Chrom, etc etc) took WFT's place, the same thing would have happened...

2. If the last three unrevealed characters weren't so completely obvious, people would have bashed this down a long time ago.. If Heihachi, Naruto, Banjo-Kazooie, Master Chief, etc etc etc, or even poor Ridley were included, even the die-hards would have to question or deny its believability, regardless of the WFT guess...

I'm not sure there's a name for it, but hinging the validity of the leak mainly on 1 character (out of 6), while the three unrevealed ones are believable shoe-in's really makes it suspicious to me.

Of course, we would never know for sure if it was a leak or not. The leak would be more credible, but it still got the E3 part wrong and the other three are likely choices regardless. The only thing that would confirm the leak correct is if those three characters were confirmed AND Iwata or Sakurai indicates that they were planned to be shown at E3 originally. That would be extremely unlikely to happen. All I'm saying is that the leak cannot be fully disproved unless said characters are not in the game. If even one of these characters is not in the game, that would convince me that the leak was fake.

1. Yes, it would have lost validity if WFT wasn't on it and that's the point. If his list had only the five others or if he had replaced it with another obvious character, then the fact he didn't know about Wii Fit Trainer would have nipped this in the bud. Like others have said, the fact that she was on there when the very thought had never occurred to anyone else makes it much more credible. A person with inside information would surely know about Wii Fit Trainer being revealed, correct? This person knew WFT would be revealed, so therefore he COULD have inside information. If he didn't know, then obviously he didn't have inside info.

2. I'm not really sure what you were trying to say here... I agree that several you listed have no chance of being in Smash (jury's still out on Ridley). But why would anyone have guessed or claimed that these characters would be at E3? If he really is just a good guesser, no one in their right mind would put any of those characters on their list. On the other hand, a person with inside knowledge would also not put any of those on his list... because they're not the six he was told would be revealed at E3. There would be no reason to put any other characters on his list as the point was to prove he was aware of these inclusions before E3.

For your last point, the validity of the leak doesn't hinge on Wii Fit Trainer, as you say. It actually hinges on Pac-Man, Little Mac, and Mii being in the game. Back during Brawl, a previous leak hinged on Ness and Lucario being in and Mewtwo being cut. And it was proven true.

History is indeed repeating itself, as once again we have people not believing a leak and attacking the character of the person who supplied it, just like with Melee and Brawl. I advise everyone to read ChronoBound's analysis on previous events.

First one, second one

I'm not asking you to believe the leak completely, nor am I saying to disregard it. All I ask is that you keep an open mind and not be quick to jump to conclusions. After all, if the leak turns out to be true, then you've been attacking the character and credibility of a fellow Smash fan, just trying to share his knowledge with his fellow fans. How could you live with yourself?

I tend to stay out of these discussions, but this has gotten out of hand. Would it help if I said that I also predicted Wii Fit Trainer and an Animal Crossing rep before this game was even officially announced? On my part it was simply an educated guess given the fact that Wii Fit targeted one of the Wii's primary demographics and sold like hotcakes.

Then I would ask you why you predicted Wii Fit Trainer in particular. Of course, Wii Fit was very successful, but the Miis were the playable characters, not the trainers. As for another reason, Smash targets a different demographic than Wii Fit does. Smash fans wouldn't be likely to want a Wii Fit rep and even then, it makes more sense to have Miis, which can rep the entire Wii series, rather than a trainer that only the people who played the game would remember (if at all) and only represents one game.

 

[TheTuninator]

As far as the "leaker" theory goes, there are 2 things that bug me:

- That the "leaker" posted the characters as "unlikely predictions", not as leaks
- That Little Mac, Pac-Man and Mii were at one point said by this person as being E3 reveals, which didn't happen

This would imply 2 things:

- That someone, for whatever reason, decided to post information received in an e-mail (chosen from many others, I suppose) as his own predictions, just because
- That Nintendo intended to reveal 3 more characters, and changed their minds just because

I just find all this unlikely, and IMO makes the leaker theory less likely.

You bring up an excellent point. If he legitimately had inside information, why didn't he say so when making his predictions?

I tend to stay out of these discussions, but this has gotten out of hand. Would it help if I said that I also predicted Wii Fit Trainer and an Animal Crossing rep before this game was even officially announced? On my part it was simply an educated guess given the fact that Wii Fit targeted one of the Wii's primary demographics and sold like hotcakes.

Yeah, there have been several people who claim to have expected WFT prior to E3. WFT was an unlikely guess, but not an impossible one. Claiming that the E3 prediction had to be a leak because of the WFT guess is quite incorrect.

 

[Kamiko]

Then I would ask you why you predicted Wii Fit Trainer in particular. Of course, Wii Fit was very successful, but the Miis were the playable characters, not the trainers. As for another reason, Smash targets a different demographic than Wii Fit does. Smash fans wouldn't be likely to want a Wii Fit rep and even then, it makes more sense to have Miis, which can rep the entire Wii series, rather than a trainer that only the people who played the game would remember (if at all) and only represents one game.

We do already have characters who weren't playable in their own games, although I agree with the reasoning behind the Miis. My guess is that despite Smash fans generally not caring about Wii Fit, Sakurai saw it as too important to Nintendo to exclude. Of course there are other ways to represent a franchise than through a character, but maybe this is an attempt at broadening the fanbase?